A different offseason, but not a different mindset

[Kaptain Krazy]

 

From Michael Rothstein, espn, this morning

 https://www.espn.com/blog/atlanta-falcons/post/_/id/37424/why-2022-offered-optimism-for-the-future-of-the-atlanta-falcons

After two seasons of roster overhauling and eliminating issues with the salary cap, they could spend the next couple of months figuring out what they need and what they want to add without worrying as much about how to pay for it.

“We had a plan from the very beginning, and now we’re in the next phase of that,” Fontenot said. “This is going to be a different offseason than we’ve had in the previous years. Yet, we’re still going to be smart, we’re still going to handle things the right way, we’re still going to set parameters and have discipline with everything that we do.”

---

They revealed their mindset when they took a receiver with their top-10 pick the last two seasons, and an athletic but very unexperienced LB from a small school with their 3rd pick last draft: Fontenot and Smith don't feel pressure to win immediately at all costs, but instead believe they have time to build slowly. 

Extending Terrell, Lindstrom, and keeping McGary would fit in that approach. Will be interesting to see what Fontenot's $ ceiling is for FA signings. 

[Jesus]

I don't think they have the leeway of another losing season. They better be in the playoffs next year.

[Herr Doktor]

I don't see them going crazy in FA.  If they don't see the player that can make the difference and is a clear upgrade from what we have/had, I don't think they will reach.  That's my impression anyway.

[FentayeJones]

9 minutes ago, Kaptain Krazy said:

“We had a plan from the very beginning, and now we’re in the next phase of that,” Fontenot said. “This is going to be a different offseason than we’ve had in the previous years. Yet, we’re still going to be smart, we’re still going to handle things the right way, we’re still going to set parameters and have discipline with everything that we do.”

Imagine being a GM and HC taking over a team and in the first two years of your tenure not having the resources to have an offseason; and then somehow managing to win seven games in each of those two seasons. 

[marvinthemartian]

I think if we see distinct, clear progress next year that AB will consider it a success and AS and TF will be fine. I, for one, appreciate that they seem to be building long term and not for a one hit wonder. 

[Kaptain Krazy]

6 minutes ago, Jesus said:

I don't think they have the leeway of another losing season. They better be in the playoffs next year.

That has been my position as well, playoffs by Year 3. 

What they do in Free Agency this offseason will tell us a lot. As much as they need to draft Defense, you can't count on rookies for 100% of that transformation. 

[Killing Floor]

Just now, Jesus said:

I don't think they have the leeway of another losing season. They better be in the playoffs next year.

 At this moment the Falcons W-L record in 2023 depends 100% on ownership. If Blank said “Fix it now or you’re fired” I think we’ll be fine. I think we’ll win the division.  Also think if Blank empowers TF to make the best decisions we’re winning the division. I don’t trust Smith’s input. 

[Jesus]

1 minute ago, Killing Floor said:

 At this moment the Falcons W-L record in 2023 depends 100% on ownership. If Blank said “Fix it now or you’re fired” I think we’ll be fine. I think we’ll win the division.  Also think if Blank empowers TF to make the best decisions we’re winning the division. I don’t trust Smith’s input. 

Blank has a billion dollar palace that sits empty for his main attraction on Sundays. The team doesn't even get home primetime games anymore. There was a time when the profile of this team was pretty high. No doubt he wants that back again. I am sure they laid out their plan for him and he agreed to it. 

I think Blank is a good and smart man but he has made some boneheaded decisions (see hiring Mora and cancelling the interview with Saban) when it comes to managing the franchise over the years. That might be why he has stepped back some from that decisions making. He deserves a winner.

[PokerSteve]

21 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

I don't see them going crazy in FA.  If they don't see the player that can make the difference and is a clear upgrade from what we have/had, I don't think they will reach.  That's my impression anyway.

Agree. I'm quite sure AS and TF looked closely at how Quinn and TD handled their roster building(?) in those post-SB years. They saw how Quinn and TD got sucked into CAP h*ll with the sky-high contracts that got constantly re-structured until the team was in full financial meltdown.

And they've had to clean up the mess before even beginning to get their own plan going. They will go over these FA's like no Falcon HC and GM have ever done before. They won't be bringing in more of the same burned out, don't-care-anymore vets just looking for one more easy paycheck.

[FalconAge]

11 minutes ago, Jesus said:

I don't think they have the leeway of another losing season. They better be in the playoffs next year.

With our overpaid and ancient roster that first year I think they get a mulligan, as they were evaluating the roster/creating the team culture. I think for next year, any clear improvement over this year nets them time. You dont interrupt yearly progression especially given where began. If a team with much better talent overall AND Justin Herbert can keep their coach after his performance this year we can give Font and Smith time to fill out a team on an upswing.

[Jesus]

8 minutes ago, FalconAge said:

With our overpaid and ancient roster that first year I think they get a mulligan, as they were evaluating the roster/creating the team culture. I think for next year, any clear improvement over this year nets them time. You dont interrupt yearly progression especially given where began. If a team with much better talent overall AND Justin Herbert can keep their coach after his performance this year we can give Font and Smith time to fill out a team on an upswing.

Another way to look at it is the Jags. They were terrible under Meyer, then an actual coach comes in and they are division winners. That might be what we see next year. If Smith gets his QB, and he's been working to make Ridder that guy, then getting over the hump and closing out those close games could be enough to push the Falcons to a division title. Adding the right pieces along the way will help. 

[Thiccolas Cage]

I'd rather have longevity which is something this franchise has never had if you don't consider being a bottom dweller. I don't want to think that either of them would be on the proverbial 'hot seat' until they've had the chance to establish the team and run with it a handful of seasons. I think that is fair.

[FalconFanSince1969]

Give them time to build slow. All putting deadlines on this stuff does is cause rash decisions to be made because you're constantly fighting for your job. This is why the good teams are always good. They can build for the long term. They can take chances that a coach that is fighting for his job can't take

 

You can't say you support a bpa draft philosophy and then want to change coaches every 3-4 years

 

[Doctor Kildare]

1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Give them time to build slow. All putting deadlines on this stuff does is cause rash decisions to be made because you're constantly fighting for your job. This is why the good teams are always good. They can build for the long term. They can take chances that a coach that is fighting for his job can't take

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Changing coaches too quickly can make you the Browns or Jets. Unless an Urban Meyer fiasco year happens, I think that the regime should not be on a hot seat for the near future. This year it would be good to build the roster, improve the defense and see if Ridder is the man. Then we should be looking at a period of real success and not smoke and mirrors for a quick fix.

[dirtybirds233]

1 hour ago, Jesus said:

I don't think they have the leeway of another losing season. They better be in the playoffs next year.

Yep. 

Sad part is they were truly 3-4 plays away from being a 10 win football team in 2022. 

[Kaptain Krazy]

1 hour ago, Doctor Kildare said:

Changing coaches too quickly can make you the Browns or Jets. Unless an Urban Meyer fiasco year happens, I think that the regime should not be on a hot seat for the near future. This year it would be good to build the roster, improve the defense and see if Ridder is the man. Then we should be looking at a period of real success and not smoke and mirrors for a quick fix.

True. 

Marvin Lewis is the litmus test. He was given 15 years in Cincinnati. Did a very good job of having the Bengals be solid, though never spectacular. Four division titles, seven playoff appearances. 0 playoff wins. 

If you hire a decent HC and give them a decade, your team will probably end up making the playoffs. The question is whether that's good enough. 

In this thread, people mock Mora, who did actually lead the team to an NFCCG. Dan Quinn is blamed for causing the mess the Falcons are in now, yet he did win playoff games and led the team to a Super Bowl. I guess those are what you mean by "quick fix"? 

Given how those former HCs are regarded, I assume the standard TATF has for the next HC is more than just "consistent playoff team." Or maybe not.

Smith failing to get the Falcons to the playoffs in his first three seasons and then Atlanta becoming a top team in the league would be unprecedented in the modern NFL. Doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it's not probable based on what we know of how the league works.

Edited January 20 by Kaptain Krazy
Typo

[supremedarius]

Please say no McGary

[Swayzee]

23 minutes ago, Kaptain Krazy said:

True. 

Marvin Lewis is the litmus test. He was given 15 years in Cincinnati. Did a very good job of having the Bengals be solid, though never spectacular. Four division titles, seven playoff appearances. 0 playoff wins. 

If you hire a decent HC and give them a decade, your team will probably end up making the playoffs. The question is whether that's good enough. 

In this thread, people mock Mora, who did actually lead the team to an NFCCG. Dan Quinn is blamed for causing the mess the Falcons are in now, yet he did win playoff games and led the team to a Super Bowl. I guess those are what you mean by "quick fix"? 

Given how those former HCs are regarded, I assume the standard TATF has for the next HC is more than just "consistent playoff team." Or maybe not.

Smith failing to get the Falcons to the playoffs in his first three seasons and then Atlanta becoming a top team in the league would be unprecedented in the modern NFL. Doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it's not probably based on what we know of how the league works.

Yep. How many coached in the past 20 years kept their jobs if they started off with 3 straight losing seasons?

It's not even an accomplishment anymore because half the league gets in these days.

Edited January 20 by Swayzee

[ATLskinjob]

5 minutes ago, Kaptain Krazy said:

True. 

Marvin Lewis is the litmus test. He was given 15 years in Cincinnati. Did a very good job of having the Bengals be solid, though never spectacular. Four division titles, seven playoff appearances. 0 playoff wins. 

If you hire a decent HC and give them a decade, your team will probably end up making the playoffs. The question is whether that's good enough. 

In this thread, people mock Mora, who did actually lead the team to an NFCCG. Dan Quinn is blamed for causing the mess the Falcons are in now, yet he did win playoff games and led the team to a Super Bowl. I guess those are what you mean by "quick fix"? 

Given how those former HCs are regarded, I assume the standard TATF has for the next HC is more than just "consistent playoff team." Or maybe not.

Smith failing to get the Falcons to the playoffs in his first three seasons and then Atlanta becoming a top team in the league would be unprecedented in the modern NFL. Doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it's not probably based on what we know of how the league works.

To be fair to Smith though, him and Terry had to deal with what was the largest dead cap hit in the history of the NFL. That definitely gets them an extra season of grace.

[Swayzee]

2 minutes ago, ATLskinjob said:

To be fair to Smith though, him and Terry had to deal with what was the largest dead cap hit in the history of the NFL. That definitely gets them an extra season of grace.

Yeah but that was their own doing??

Why should they get a pass? They "could" have had Ryan play this season and the dead cap would have been 40+ less, they chose this path or rather it was chosen for them because of their other decisions.

 

[ATLskinjob]

Just now, Swayzee said:

Yeah but that was their own doing??

Why should they get a pass? They "could" have had Ryan play this season and the dead cap would have been 40+ less, they chose this path or rather it was chosen for them because of their other decisions.

 

Nah I still think that the Watson fiasco was Blank's fault. So he's pretty much responsible for a huge portion of that debt.

They inherited a terrible roster with a ton of bad contracts all over it. You have to take that into account because it's just a time thing. You have to wait for the contracts to run out and there's no way around it.

That's why they got a pass these last two seasons.

I think that they need to show something this season. They probably need to have a winning record or make it close (closer than this year) to the playoffs or else they should start feeling some pressure. Then the season after that will decide if they stay or go.

I think it would pretty much be a waste of time to make them work with their hands tied by the cap situation for 2 years only to fire them after the next season.

[FalconFanSince1969]

23 minutes ago, Swayzee said:

Yeah but that was their own doing??

Why should they get a pass? They "could" have had Ryan play this season and the dead cap would have been 40+ less, they chose this path or rather it was chosen for them because of their other decisions.

 

We all know moving on from Ryan was the correct move tho

 

[red falcon]

29 minutes ago, Swayzee said:

Yeah but that was their own doing??

Why should they get a pass? They "could" have had Ryan play this season and the dead cap would have been 40+ less, they chose this path or rather it was chosen for them because of their other decisions.

 

It was time. Why continue to holding to him? It would have just held up progress. They didnt create the contract. For all we know ryan was never in their plans. Time has passed him as it does everyone else. 

[Lethal]

1 hour ago, dirtybirds233 said:

Yep. 

Sad part is they were truly 3-4 plays away from being a 10 win football team in 2022. 

They were really 1 QB away from being a 10 win football team in 2022...

Also I really don't think Smith and Fontenot are on the hot seat for this year.  Yes, it's year three, but it's essentially year 1 after they finally dug themselves out of the TD hole.  I expect them to be a playoff team next year anyway, but I think if they still suck after 2024, that's when heads may roll.

[PokerSteve]

1 hour ago, Kaptain Krazy said:

True. 

Marvin Lewis is the litmus test. He was given 15 years in Cincinnati. Did a very good job of having the Bengals be solid, though never spectacular. Four division titles, seven playoff appearances. 0 playoff wins. 

If you hire a decent HC and give them a decade, your team will probably end up making the playoffs. The question is whether that's good enough. 

In this thread, people mock Mora, who did actually lead the team to an NFCCG. Dan Quinn is blamed for causing the mess the Falcons are in now, yet he did win playoff games and led the team to a Super Bowl. I guess those are what you mean by "quick fix"? 

Given how those former HCs are regarded, I assume the standard TATF has for the next HC is more than just "consistent playoff team." Or maybe not.

Smith failing to get the Falcons to the playoffs in his first three seasons and then Atlanta becoming a top team in the league would be unprecedented in the modern NFL. Doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it's not probable based on what we know of how the league works.

Great post. It's still a little early, but Arthur Smith seems to be a decent HC. He would probably be a better HC if he gave up the play-calling to Ragone or a real OC, but I digress. 

All of us want to get back into the playoffs. However I doubt many of us give a dam about getting to the playoffs as a middle-of-the-pack team and losing within the fist couple rounds every year.

Half the league basically gets in the playoffs every year. You have to Falcon Suck to miss five years in a row. Making the playoffs in reality isn't jack squat. It's getting to at least the championship game and you better get past that after your first failed attempt. 

So yes, it would not be a good look if AS doesn't get this team into the playoffs next season. He wouldn't be fired unless the team went 5-12 or something, but the seat would be warm for big results in '24. 

I'm cheering for Smith to get the Falcons to the playoffs next year and at least make a good showing if they go out first round. And then hopefully the Big Game in '24. Longevity with your HC is an asset, until you STILL aren't winning any SB's and fans are fed up with getting to the playoffs with no pay-off.