Just how close WAS Matt Ryan to going to Canton?

[rednblackattack]

I was such a huge fan of Matt when he played here.   He had his flaws but overall I thought he was just a notch below elite level QBs. I was hopeful that when he went to Indy that he might have a great season that May win him over with future HOF voters.  Sadly quite the opposite happened.   
 

His stat numbers are mostly worthy compared to other QB hall of famers.  But his legacy will always be tied to the dubious records of being the starting QB that gave up the biggest leads in history in post season and now regular season.  
 

Kind of a bummer.   I thought he was only one or two more good to great seasons from being serious HOF consideration worthy.   

[ratesforless]

One 4th quarter away in February 2017...

[PriMeTiiMe]

He is viewed as a choke artist by most outside of Atlanta.

His chances flatlined in February 2017. Only thing that would have saved him was a ring.

[PokerSteve]

Just now, PriMeTiiMe said:

He is viewed as a choke artist by most outside of Atlanta.

His chances flatlined in February 2017. Only thing that would have saved him was a ring.

Yep. The infamous SB collapse, coupled with being a Falcon, doomed his chances at the Hall. 

[Lethal]

5 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

He is viewed as a choke artist by most outside of Atlanta.

His chances flatlined in February 2017. Only thing that would have saved him was a ring.

Eh, I don't think so.  I think he will get in eventually, but he won't be first ballot and probably doesn't deserve to be.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_QB.htm

Matt is currently right there at the average hof qb

QB HOFm Leaders

 

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			Misc						Games		Passing
Player	HOFm	Chmp	AP1	PB	St	From	To	wAV	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds
Tom Brady	263.03	7	3	15	20	2000	2022	184	335	333	7753	12050	89214	649	99	212	565	3576
Peyton Manning	257.80	2	7	14	17	1998	2015	176	266	265	6125	9380	71940	539	86	251	303	1953
Aaron Rodgers	192.43	1	4	10	13	2005	2022	163	230	223	5001	7660	59055	475	93	105	530	3596
Brett Favre	179.96	1	3	11	19	1991	2010	158	302	298	6300	10169	71838	508	99	336	525	3487
Johnny Unitas	160.27	3	5	10	14	1956	1973	113	211	185	2830	5186	40239	290	89	253	307	2383
Joe Montana	154.17	4	3	8	12	1979	1994	125	192	164	3409	5391	40551	273	96	139	313	2095
Drew Brees	140.58	1	1	13	19	2001	2020	167	287	286	7142	10551	80358	571	98	243	420	2991
John Elway	138.66	2	0	9	16	1983	1998	140	234	231	4123	7250	51475	300	86	226	516	3785
Dan Marino	117.02	0	3	9	16	1983	1999	145	242	240	4967	8358	61361	420	85	252	270	1930
Fran Tarkenton	116.55	0	1	9	18	1961	1978	148	246	239	3686	6467	47003	342	89	266	572	5226
Steve Young	111.65	3	3	7	9	1985	1999	132	169	143	2667	4149	33124	232	97	107	358	2055
Average HOF QB	109	2	2	7	13			118	196	178	3143	5302	39414	268	90	200	324	2459
Matt Ryan	106.05	0	1	4	14	2008	2022	146	234	234	5551	8464	62792	381	93	183	488	3264
Ben Roethlisberger	100.28	2	0	6	17	2004	2021	131	249	247	5440	8443	64088	418	97	211	554	3677
Philip Rivers	98.06	0	0	8	15	2004	2020	149	244	240	5277	8134	63440	421	84	209	464	2832
Bart Starr	97.93	5	1	4	13	1956	1971	91	196	157	1808	3149	24718	152	91	138	288	2545
Terry Bradshaw	95.69	4	1	3	13	1970	1983	107	168	158	2025	3901	27989	212	90	210	307	2694
Roger Staubach	93.50	2	0	6	8	1969	1979	104	131	114	1685	2958	22700	153	91	109	313	2154
Dan Fouts	92.30	0	2	6	14	1973	1987	123	181	171	3297	5604	43040	254	81	242	319	2304
Kurt Warner	88.78	1	2	4	8	1998	2009	96	124	116	2666	4070	32344	208	85	128	260	1669
Eli Manning	85.01	2	0	4	14	2004	2019	121	236	234	4895	8119	57023	366	99	244	411	2870
Russell Wilson	83.10	1	0	9	10	2012	2022	130	173	173	3371	5218	40583	308	80	98	482	3206
Ken Anderson	82.99	0	1	4	13	1971	1986	120	192	172	2654	4475	32838	197	94	160	398	287

[DonDaLuvMaker]

Honestly, I have no idea where Ryan stands when it comes to his HOF chances now.

[Herr Doktor]

He gets in.  He won't be first ballot.  His MVP season was special.  His stats are solid.  His love of the game is unquestioned, and his attitude is phenomenal.   My guess is he gets in, but it will be a few years.  He played lights out in the Superbowl.   

[hjerry]

Regular season stats are just that. He needed a ring. Almost every HOF QB has at least one.

Every year more QBs will retire that will be higher on the totem pole than him. It's hard to imagine him getting in on regular season stats alone.

[raysnill1]

if Phillip Rivers is a lock, then Matt is a lock.

[Atlantafan21]

19 minutes ago, hjerry said:

Regular season stats are just that. He needed a ring. Almost every HOF QB has at least one.

Every year more QBs will retire that will be hire on the totem pole than him. It's hard to imagine him getting in on regular season stats alone.

I think this thought is overestimated. The only active QB that could retire soon that could surpass Ryans stats with a few more seasons that could finish with more passing yards or TDs is Stafford, and he’s dealing with injury issues himself. All the other guys that project to surpass Ryan are all young QBs that have been in the league / started for 5 years or less and won’t retire until a decade or longer. The only QB from the classes of 2009-2016 that are potentially HOF worthy outside of the 2 Matt’s is Russ, and his case is being put to question right now too. I guess Watson is another guy but we’ll see how he even does after everything he’s been through.

 

Also, Ryan statistically is one of the best playoff QBs of all time, so it’s not just all regular season stats for him. 
 

 

Edit: 

forgot about Dak, he also has a chance to surpass in statistics. We’ll see what he does this postseason going forward as well, but he does have an opportunity to start making a case as soon as this season if he manages to win a super bowl.

[Atlantafan21]

23 minutes ago, Lethal said:

Eh, I don't think so.  I think he will get in eventually, but he won't be first ballot and probably doesn't deserve to be.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_QB.htm

Matt is currently right there at the average hof qb

QB HOFm Leaders

 

• Bold indicates HOF player
• See full explanation here
•  
• Share & Export
  • Modify, Export & Share Table
  • Get as Excel Workbook
  • Get table as CSV (for Excel)
  • Get Link to Table
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			Misc						Games		Passing
Player	HOFm	Chmp	AP1	PB	St	From	To	wAV	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds
Tom Brady	263.03	7	3	15	20	2000	2022	184	335	333	7753	12050	89214	649	99	212	565	3576
Peyton Manning	257.80	2	7	14	17	1998	2015	176	266	265	6125	9380	71940	539	86	251	303	1953
Aaron Rodgers	192.43	1	4	10	13	2005	2022	163	230	223	5001	7660	59055	475	93	105	530	3596
Brett Favre	179.96	1	3	11	19	1991	2010	158	302	298	6300	10169	71838	508	99	336	525	3487
Johnny Unitas	160.27	3	5	10	14	1956	1973	113	211	185	2830	5186	40239	290	89	253	307	2383
Joe Montana	154.17	4	3	8	12	1979	1994	125	192	164	3409	5391	40551	273	96	139	313	2095
Drew Brees	140.58	1	1	13	19	2001	2020	167	287	286	7142	10551	80358	571	98	243	420	2991
John Elway	138.66	2	0	9	16	1983	1998	140	234	231	4123	7250	51475	300	86	226	516	3785
Dan Marino	117.02	0	3	9	16	1983	1999	145	242	240	4967	8358	61361	420	85	252	270	1930
Fran Tarkenton	116.55	0	1	9	18	1961	1978	148	246	239	3686	6467	47003	342	89	266	572	5226
Steve Young	111.65	3	3	7	9	1985	1999	132	169	143	2667	4149	33124	232	97	107	358	2055
Average HOF QB	109	2	2	7	13			118	196	178	3143	5302	39414	268	90	200	324	2459
Matt Ryan	106.05	0	1	4	14	2008	2022	146	234	234	5551	8464	62792	381	93	183	488	3264
Ben Roethlisberger	100.28	2	0	6	17	2004	2021	131	249	247	5440	8443	64088	418	97	211	554	3677
Philip Rivers	98.06	0	0	8	15	2004	2020	149	244	240	5277	8134	63440	421	84	209	464	2832
Bart Starr	97.93	5	1	4	13	1956	1971	91	196	157	1808	3149	24718	152	91	138	288	2545
Terry Bradshaw	95.69	4	1	3	13	1970	1983	107	168	158	2025	3901	27989	212	90	210	307	2694
Roger Staubach	93.50	2	0	6	8	1969	1979	104	131	114	1685	2958	22700	153	91	109	313	2154
Dan Fouts	92.30	0	2	6	14	1973	1987	123	181	171	3297	5604	43040	254	81	242	319	2304
Kurt Warner	88.78	1	2	4	8	1998	2009	96	124	116	2666	4070	32344	208	85	128	260	1669
Eli Manning	85.01	2	0	4	14	2004	2019	121	236	234	4895	8119	57023	366	99	244	411	2870
Russell Wilson	83.10	1	0	9	10	2012	2022	130	173	173	3371	5218	40583	308	80	98	482	3206
Ken Anderson	82.99	0	1	4	13	1971	1986	120	192	172	2654	4475	32838	197	94	160	398	287

I don’t think monitor by PFR is bad, I actually think for QBs in particular it measures it well, but the average score for a QB is going to be ridiculously skewed after Brady gets in with Peyton already skewing it. 

[Killing Floor]

About 300 miles west from canton. 
 

It would be great to see him in. I better if it happens in his lifetime. 

[ryanadonis]

He will never make it. If he had Kyle shanahan for 3 more years, he could make it

[KRUNKuno]

He’s first ballot

[RoddyWhite84]

9 minutes ago, ryanadonis said:

He will never make it. If he had Kyle shanahan for 3 more years, he could make it

I said if Kyle would have stayed another year no way we dont go back to the super bowl and finish the job

[Lethal]

28 minutes ago, Atlantafan21 said:

I don’t think monitor by PFR is bad, I actually think for QBs in particular it measures it well, but the average score for a QB is going to be ridiculously skewed after Brady gets in with Peyton already skewing it. 

Maybe a little I don’t think a ton.  Manning is already in and I want to say before he got in the average was like 99 or 98?

[arrogantBEAST]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news here but Matt has the numbers to get in. 
 

Matt Ryan has played 15 seasons for the Falcons and Colts. He has thrown for 62,792 yards and 381 touchdowns. He was selected to play in 4 Pro Bowls. He has won 1 Offensive Player of the Year award, the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and 1 MVP award. He’s also 7th in passing yards. 

[Jesupfalconfan]

9 minutes ago, arrogantBEAST said:

Hate to be the bearer of bad news here but Matt has the numbers to get in. 
 

Matt Ryan has played 15 seasons for the Falcons and Colts. He has thrown for 62,792 yards and 381 touchdowns. He was selected to play in 4 Pro Bowls. He has won 1 Offensive Player of the Year award, the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and 1 MVP award. He’s also 7th in passing yards. 

And he will

[Atlantafan21]

49 minutes ago, Lethal said:

Maybe a little I don’t think a ton.  Manning is already in and I want to say before he got in the average was like 99 or 98?

That’s a pretty big difference if it was around 99/98. Another 10 point jump and a guy like Dan Marino is considered below average for a hall of famer. Steve Young will be considered below average once Brady gets in. 

[Mid-Nite-Toker]

1 hour ago, Herr Doktor said:

He gets in.  He won't be first ballot.  His MVP season was special.  His stats are solid.  His love of the game is unquestioned, and his attitude is phenomenal.   My guess is he gets in, but it will be a few years.  He played lights out in the Superbowl.   

Yep, his mvp season can't be denied.

They flashed a stat about playoff qbs with 300 yards and 4tds and MR2 is on that list.

If "choking" was such a serious hindrance then it should've been a problem for Jim Kelly.

[Mid-Nite-Toker]

1 hour ago, RoddyWhite84 said:

I said if Kyle would have stayed another year no way we dont go back to the super bowl and finish the job

Idk about that, Kyle hasn't done it yet.  No doubt he can raise the play of qbs willing, but no evidence he can seal the deal.

KS deserves as much mention as DQ and MR2 for that SB cluster farq.

[Lethal]

9 minutes ago, Atlantafan21 said:

That’s a pretty big difference if it was around 99/98. Another 10 point jump and a guy like Dan Marino is considered below average for a hall of famer. Steve Young will be considered below average once Brady gets in. 

Yea I suppose so.  I hadn’t thought of that but yea the slider will keep moving away from Matt.  I think the historic season in 16 and the sheer number of stats ultimately get him in eventually but I guess we will see.

[Drunken Minotaur Zebra]

A) Matt will be in the HoF

B ) The concept that he's the reason we lost the SB is the most insane **** I've ever heard. Literally: Kyle Shanahan, Devonta Freeman, Refs, Julio, and DQ himself all to blame before you bring up Matt

 

[Drunken Minotaur Zebra]

1 minute ago, Lethal said:

Yea I suppose so.  I hadn’t thought of that but yea the slider will keep moving away from Matt.  I think the historic season in 16 and the sheer number of stats ultimately get him in eventually but I guess we will see.

It really comes down to records. Matt is top 5 or top 10 at worst in **** near every QB stat there is. 

[Atlantafan21]

Just now, Drunken Minotaur Zebra said:

It really comes down to records. Matt is top 5 or top 10 at worst in **** near every QB stat there is. 

I’ve said it for a few years now but seeing what happens with Rivers will tell us a lot about what happens with Ryan. I know there are a good amount of people who think Rivers > Ryan, but Ryan statistically is right there with him and has better accomplishments including a higher peak, elite SB run, and an MVP. Rivers in, then Ryan will be in no doubt to me. If rivers is left out, Ryan will likely be borderline.