Optimus_Cr1m35 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Quote Lucky: Atlanta Falcons (4-6) What has gone right: Well-timed defensive performance, fumble recoveries, opposing special teams The Falcons have exceeded my expectations. I thought they would be one of the league's worst teams. Instead, they've been competitive in just about every one of their games. Fans of this team might argue they're unlucky to have a losing record, given that they came within a furious comeback of beating the Saints in Week 1, then failed to capitalize on a Cooper Kupp fumble that gifted them a short field in the fourth quarter of a close game against the Rams the following week. We could just as easily point to the first Panthers game when the Atlanta prevent defense failed to keep DJ Moore from catching a spectacular touchdown pass with 12 seconds to go. The Panthers could have won the game if kicker Eddy Pineiro had converted the ensuing 48-yard extra point or a 32-yard field goal attempt in overtime, but he missed both attempts, opening up the door for Atlanta's Younghoe Koo to win the game with a 41-yard try. With that Panthers game as the most significant example, the Falcons have benefited from subpar special teams play by the opposing team. Football Outsiders tracks a "hidden" special teams statistic, measuring how teams benefit from special teams situations out of their control, most namely opposing success on kick attempts. Pineiro's disastrous game directly led to an Atlanta victory. Fumbles have also bounced the Falcons' way. They have forced a league-low five fumbles on defense, but they've recovered all five. Forcing fumbles is a skill, but recovering fumbles is random. Atlanta has the league's second-highest recovery rate this season. Coordinator Dean Pees' defense is handicapped by a middling pass rush and a patchwork secondary, especially while star cornerback A.J. Terrell has been sidelined by a hamstring injury. Despite those issues, the Falcons have been much better on money downs; they rank 30th in EPA per play on first and second down but 14th on third and fourth down. It's one thing for the Giants to force that with successful blitzes, but Pees is blitzing -- and getting pressure on the quarterback -- at one of the league's lowest rates. To be fair, coach Arthur Smith's offense might also expect to improve on third down. They have been the league's second-best offense on first and second down, but they're 21st on third and fourth down. Here's one where the numbers align with the obvious explanation: The Falcons have a creative, successful run game, but they aren't a good offense when Marcus Mariota is forced into throwing situations. I would expect them to be better on third down over the final eight weeks, but I don't think Atlanta fans should expect one of the league's best offenses on third down, either. What it means: I don't think it should mean all that much in the short term. The Falcons get the Bears, Commanders, Steelers and Saints over their next four games, teams that each rank behind them in DVOA. I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons continued their push toward a winning record, although that might fall short as the schedule gets tougher in December. Smith might also eventually opt to get rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder reps, especially if Mariota plays as poorly as he did in last week's loss to Carolina. This is something that I've mentioned numerous times. We've had a lot go our way, and due to that, it's easy to look at some of these games or our record and think we're better than we are. Luck goes both ways, after years of seemingly bad luck, it's good to see that we're benefiting from it. With that said, sometimes I feel like we're more lucky than good. Herr Doktor, Sponge, papachaz and 9 others 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tribal Chief Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 More lucky than good goes for alot more teams than the Falcons. I'll take all of that luck with a side of potential W's that come with it rounz, The Don™, FalconJim and 10 others 9 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Don™ Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 You can call it luck or whatever. But we play relatively disciplined ball and limit penalties. Carolina game was the exception. That's what kept us in games this season. Even the Carolina game we had a chance to tie it near the end. Honestly, we have to because our talent is lacking and we don't give our QB a ton of responsibility in the passing game. We're a fairly straightforward team that wants to run the ball and is opportunistic on defense but also gives up a lot of yards. We're mostly one dimensional but partly because of talent deficiencies. Just building the culture of being disciplined, playing team ball, not giving up, being tough is what you want to see in a young, rebuilding team. I believe that's what AS wants as a baseline as we continue to add talent and find our QB. BtK, Hard2BaBirdWachr, Flyin' In DC and 7 others 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimus_Cr1m35 Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tribal Chief said: More lucky than good goes for alot more teams than the Falcons. I'll take all of that luck with a side of potential W's that come with it I'm all for Dubs. My only fear is the "Oh, we made the playoffs, so we're actually not that bad". FalconJim, Tribal Chief, dodge_birds_fan and 2 others 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Don™ Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, Optimus_Cr1m35 said: I'm all for Dubs. My only fear is the "Oh, we made the playoffs, so we're actually not that bad". I think educated fans would not believe that. I believe it was last year or two years ago with the Eagles squeaking into the playoffs and looking awful vs the Bucs. If we sneak in, I suspect we'd probably get curb stomped. FalconJim, papachaz and celtiksage 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summerhill Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 The Falcons have a point differential of -18. Based on that, their overall record would seem to be about exactly where you would expect. RetroRoq, Malachore and Dr Long Shot 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.11 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. 1 minute ago, The Don™ said: Just building the culture of being disciplined, playing team ball, not giving up, being tough is what you want to see in a young, rebuilding team. I believe that's what AS wants as a baseline as we continue to add talent and find our QB. And this is why they've had opportunities to win games they've had no business winning. RetroRoq, VTCrunkler, Mister pudding and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killing Floor Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Plus with all the money we save by not having postseason travel and special jerseys for the Super Bowl we can decorate the stadium. Malachore, Flyin' In DC, celtiksage and 2 others 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banana Bandit Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 In other news. Switching to Geico has saved Falcons untold amount of money on the Cap next season. FalconJim and Killing Floor 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonDaLuvMaker Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Lucky is a part of success Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tribal Chief Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, Optimus_Cr1m35 said: I'm all for Dubs. My only fear is the "Oh, we made the playoffs, so we're actually not that bad". If that happens, it wouldn't be the first time for this franchise. The beloved Matt Ryan lead a team with a winning record to the playoffs and were blown out 24-2. Having a winning record doesn’t mean you’re any better than a team with a losing record unless you’re lights out better. Not many teams are lights out this year. So who knows. FalconJim, Optimus_Cr1m35, papachaz and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Sider Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Luck would have us beating the Saints, Bucs, Rams and Chargers. JDaveG, james b, Tribal Chief and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid-Nite-Toker Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I think the F/O has done alot to have some luck come our way. They've tried to scheme to the players strength and seem intent on competing even though they don't have the best hand at the table. You make your own luck...nothings given. Tribal Chief, RetroRoq and rounz 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dodge_birds_fan Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, The Don™ said: I think educated fans would not believe that. I believe it was last year or two years ago with the Eagles squeaking into the playoffs and looking awful vs the Bucs. If we sneak in, I suspect we'd probably get curb stomped. Oxymoron Optimus_Cr1m35 and The Don™ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dodge_birds_fan Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, Tribal Chief said: If that happens, it wouldn't be the first time for this franchise. The beloved Matt Ryan lead a team with a winning record to the playoffs and were blown out 24-2. Having a winning record doesn’t mean you’re any better than a team with a losing record unless you’re lights out better. Not many teams are lights out this year. So who knows. I remember that crapshow. The entire second half I kept thinking we're gonna score.....Score never came. Tribal Chief 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tribal Chief Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Just now, dodge_birds_fan said: I remember that crapshow. The entire second half I kept thinking we're gonna score.....Score never came. Good ole days dodge_birds_fan and FalconJim 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herr Doktor Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 47 minutes ago, Optimus_Cr1m35 said: This is something that I've mentioned numerous times. We've had a lot go our way, and due to that, it's easy to look at some of these games or our record and think we're better than we are. Luck goes both ways, after years of seemingly bad luck, it's good to see that we're benefiting from it. With that said, sometimes I feel like we're more lucky than good. Luck is often a product of your work. We can make our own luck. Are we still basically a thin team? Yep. We lost **** near the entire starting secondary for a while there, we also lost our starting LG for 5 games. There is a reason our line has been suspect since a good start. Wilk being out is hurting the line. kiwifalcon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
celtiksage Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, dodge_birds_fan said: Oxymoron Isn't it kinda like "military intelligence," as they say in the military? 🤣🤣 dodge_birds_fan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RING OF HONOR Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I'm stuck in a Chick-fil-A drive thru...it's not moving....this is not lucky..... I WANT MY SANDWICH!!!!!! FalconJim, NCFalconfan and Killing Floor 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VTCrunkler Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 minute ago, RING OF HONOR said: I'm stuck in a Chick-fil-A drive thru...it's not moving....this is not lucky..... I WANT MY SANDWICH!!!!!! waffle fries too? Killing Floor and RING OF HONOR 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VTCrunkler Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Better to be lucky than good sometimes. With all the bad luck that has strayed our way, ill take some on the positive side LUCK +1 powerup rounz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VTCrunkler Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerSteve Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Optimus_Cr1m35 said: I'm all for Dubs. My only fear is the "Oh, we made the playoffs, so we're actually not that bad". Agree. "The playoffs" seems like a lofty achievement for us because we have been hot garbage for six years. In reality, 14 teams out of 32 make it to the playoffs. So, about half the teams in the league. It's not exactly like climbing the Mt. Everest of sports to get there. In a league built on parity, only about 8 teams don't suck every season, and only one of those finds its way to a Lombardi. We're nowhere near being in that group of 8. I'm afraid we have a long, long road to travel before we're playing in a deep-round meaningful playoff game. FalconJim and NCFalconfan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Bird Rising Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 You can feel that this is a new ERA in Falcon football, just believe it. FalconJim and Kaptain Krazy 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt4415 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 We definitely should have lost the first Panthers game PokerSteve, papachaz and FalconJim 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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