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#1 Tennessee vs #3 Georgia


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2 hours ago, RandomFan said:

https://messageboardgeniuses.com/2022/11/03/best-bets-for-week-10/?amp=1

Geogia -8 vs Tennessee

The media has gotten so hot and bothered by Tennessee beating Alabama that many pundits are convinced the Vols will walk all over the Bulldogs. You can’t swing a dead raccoon without hitting a “Hooker for Heisman” take or a “The 2022 Vols are 2019 LSU” comparison. The Vols are #1 in the first CFP rankings. The media loves them. Analysts are calling them unstoppable. Only one problem… Vegas looked across that landscape and hung UGA -9 as its opening line on Sunday afternoon. As of Wednesday night one website said that 93% of the public dollars are on the Vols. Despite that, Vegas has only let this spread creep to 8.

First thought… Tennessee has been phenomenal this year. They also could easily be 5-2 and looked fairly pedestrian against the best defensive line they faced when they went to Pittsburgh. If they were to win the National Title they would be the first team with a Blue-Chip Ratio under 50% to ever do so. UT’s roster is only 31% blue-chippers. In terms of how they’re made up, the Vols have a lot more similarities to the 2014 Mississippi State team who opened at #1 when the first CFP rankings came out than they do to 2019 LSU. There’s not NFL players on every level of this team. Georgia on the other hand does have future pros all over its roster.

The tempo that the UT offense runs is a cheat code of sorts in college football. It eliminates the ability to substitute and it is designed to create busted coverages. That happens more so through catching a CB who is staring at the sideline for a play call with his pants down than it does through scheme. This scheme is not a new invention. Heupel was running it at Missouri in 2018 when the Tigers scored 29 on UGA. Giving up that many points to anyone is something Kirby Smart loses sleep over, and he studied the offense during the following offseason.

There are two things that hurt this Tennessee scheme. The first is A & B-Gap pressure from DT’s and ILB’s. The second is boundary CB’s who possess the size to play press coverage against WR’s and also  fight through blocks well enough to tackle WR Screen plays. The good news for Georgia is that they have both of those.

UGA will have to stop the run with just 5 men in the box. I think they’ll win a lot more of those battles than they lose. There’s no shutting this offense down entirely, but Georgia can hold UT into the 20’s or the low-30’s.

Far too little attention has been paid this week to Georgia’s offense. The Bulldogs put up 500 yards every week without looking like they’re really trying to. They’ve stayed vanilla for most of the year but they have produced more 12+ yards runs and 16+ yard passes this year than the Vols have. The playbook will be opened wide on Saturday and UGA will control this game with its offensive line.

For as great as UT has been, they still don’t have the horses for a game like this. That’s particularly true on defense. Georgia wins and it won’t be particularly close in the end.

 

All good if not great points, still even MBG is 2 for and 2 against a Georgia win. Im still stuck on losing Nolan Smith having it happen the game before did Georgia no favors defensively. Obviously Georgia at home is a plus, but Georgia seems more banged up than Tennessee. Georgia has got to start fast and keep the heat on, cause thats exactly what Tennessee likes to do. Come out quick grab an early lead get the defense on their heels and that opens up their run game, the up tempo ruins substitution packages and can wear out a DL. 

https://news.yahoo.com/nolan-smiths-absence-lineup-offers-130107711.html

Quote

Tennessee’s offensive line includes right tackle Darnell Wright who hasn’t given up a sack this season in 540 snaps and senior Jeremiah Crawford or Gerald Mincey at left tackle.

 Chaz Chambliss who is relatively inexperienced by comparison but logged his most snaps as a Bulldog Saturday after Georgia’s top pass rusher was knocked out of the game due to injury.

Chambliss, a 6-foot-2, 250-pound sophomore missed the last three games due to a hamstring injury, but returned to log 30 snaps against Florida, according to Pro Football Focus. He had his first sack of the season late in the game after getting a half sack against Tennessee last season.

“Chaz did a nice job,” Smart said. “It was great to get him back. Didn’t know he would have to play that much in that role. His hamstring still been bothering him. It bothered him a little bit the other night after the game.”

Sixth-year senior Robert Beal also had a career-high in snaps with 51. He had 2 tackles and Chambliss had 3 along with at least one missed tackle on a run play.

Another option to help fill in if Smith can't go is true freshman Marvin Jones Jr. who was out for the Florida game with the flu. The five-star prospect from Fort Lauderdale has seen action in two games this season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, recording a tackle in each. Smart said he wants to get Jones and junior M.J. Sherman, who has played 29 defensive snaps this season, “going,” as well.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, putnam6 said:

 

All good if not great points, still even MBG is 2 for and 2 against a Georgia win. Im still stuck on losing Nolan Smith having it happen the game before did Georgia no favors defensively. Obviously Georgia at home is a plus, but Georgia seems more banged up than Tennessee. Georgia has got to start fast and keep the heat on, cause thats exactly what Tennessee likes to do. Come out quick grab an early lead get the defense on their heels and that opens up their run game, the up tempo ruins substitution packages and can wear out a DL. 

https://news.yahoo.com/nolan-smiths-absence-lineup-offers-130107711.html

 

 

Were you also worried about the Michigan game last year? Did you buy into the misguided hype that they were on our level? Because this is pretty much going to be the same outcome. I'm really sorry for all the long suffering UGA, Falcons, Hawks fans that have had their confidence shattered decade after decade, but this is the golden era of UGA football. Many of us have realized this already; hopefully more of you will eventually join us in the sunshine and bask in the glow of how this all feels without waiting for the other shoe to drop.  

I'll say it again, granting that in sports anything can happen so there are no guarantees, but in order for TEN to win this game it would take a combination of UGA playing horribly with multiple turnovers and other errors along with TEN playing the game of their lives. All the hand wringing from UGA fans is unnecessary. 

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2 hours ago, sirlot said:

This game just has a 2021 SECCG feel to me, far as most people saying UGA is too dominant and can score too. Then my heart is just crushed. And prob won't get a rematch this year.

 

If I understand correctly, I got that feel too. I think Vols will win by 12 or 18 points.

 

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Hayes: Stetson Bennett vs. Hendon Hooker isn't nearly the mismatch you think it is

We begin with the odd, because what better way to explain the dichotomy of the most anticipated game of the college football season.

Blur Ball vs. Crawl Ball. Tempo vs. Methodical.

So while we all celebrate what Tennessee has accomplished — including being ranked No. 1 in the season’s first Playoff poll — and marvel at the point-a-minute production from the nation’s No. 1 offense, a little-known fact is right in the rearview.

Georgia has the No. 2 offense in the nation. And you know what that means: It wouldn’t be a big game in the SEC without yet another double-take of Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett.

We keep questioning, and he keeps producing and winning...

So as we enter another big game this season where Bennett doesn’t remotely resemble — physically or athletically — his counterpart, it’s important to remind everyone that Bennett has thrown for 11 more yards than Tennessee quarterback and Heisman Trophy favorite Hendon Hooker...

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/georgia-football/stetson-bennett-vs-hendon-hooker-closer-than-you-think/?mc_cid=e65e4f5b9e&mc_eid=9c20eb37dc

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The VOLS get their chance to prove it this Saturday IMO. I'm just surprised at how much the media and pundits are ignoring other very relevant indicators that favor the Dawgs in the matchup.  Everyone is just jumping on the VOLS bandwagon because it is the trendy thing to do IMO.

UGAs defense may not be at the 2021 level but it is still far and away better than the 2022 Bama defense has shown this year, or any other team that UT has faced for that matter. That Matters. Oh...  and the UGA offense is right there in actual production with UT's. Not that many folks are even mentioning it. Meanwhile, the UT defense...  ummm... yeah. 🙄

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1 hour ago, RandomFan said:

Were you also worried about the Michigan game last year? Did you buy into the misguided hype that they were on our level? Because this is pretty much going to be the same outcome. I'm really sorry for all the long suffering UGA, Falcons, Hawks fans that have had their confidence shattered decade after decade, but this is the golden era of UGA football. Many of us have realized this already; hopefully more of you will eventually join us in the sunshine and bask in the glow of how this all feels without waiting for the other shoe to drop.  

I'll say it again, granting that in sports anything can happen so there are no guarantees, but in order for TEN to win this game it would take a combination of UGA playing horribly with multiple turnovers and other errors along with TEN playing the game of their lives. All the hand wringing from UGA fans is unnecessary. 

LOL handwringing? just discussing this which I enjoy immensely BTW and trying to be being the devil's advocate if not a tad more realistic. I do talk a little smack as a UGA fan on Reddit from time to time but find TATF CS more level headed. 

If UGA plays like they did THIS YEAR against Kent State, Florida, Missouri on Saturday they probably lose and lose easily. 

Sure lets compare the 2021 team that had 15 players go to the NFL minus Nolan Smith to this years 2022 team, that makes a lot of sense. 2021 team had a historic defense loads of veteran leadership on both sides, 2022 Georgia's signature win was a long time ago, against a new coach coaching his first game. ie. they have one semi impressive win in 2022 and have had a fairly easy schedule the whole season. On the other side in 2022 Tennessee boat raced the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge while the 2022 Georgia Bulldogs absolutely struggled for 4 quarters with a lackluster Mizzou team, if Mizzou had a decent offense Georgia loses that game. If you cant see that, then yea we probably aren't gonna agree here. 

Regardless no I didn't think Michigan had a chance at all last season in the CFP, especially with 2021 Georgia having extended time to prepare, and coming off the 2021 SEC Championship loss. The 2021 Bulldogs were primed to throttle the Wolverines. But this is 2022... absolutely nothing that happened in 2021 matters for a game in 2022. 

It's all about probabilities getting Georgia's A game here this week would be an outlier, thats all there is to it. All 2022 Georgia needs to do to lose is play like they did against Missouri or even play like they did against Florida last week isn't gonna make for an easy victory either. FWIW Georgia has already had 4 games with multiple turnovers most of those the last 4-5 weeks. Thankfully they have been decent in recovering their own fumbles or the turnover ratio +.04  would be worse. Their last game with out a turnover or a fumble even if they recovered it was the Samford game. So chances are they got at least 1 on tap for Saturday if they have more at the wrong time or position on the field? All bets are off. Georgia is just 4-4 against the spread which as an 8 point favorite smells like a one possession game is likely coming up

Kent State 2 lost fumbles and an Int 

Mizzou 2 lost fumbles

Auburn 2 fumbles one lost

Vandy I fumble zero lost

Florida 1 fumble lost and 2 Interceptions

In other words we got 8-0 Georgia with only 1 "A" game this whole season, while 8-0 Tennessee has played pretty **** well in the Pitt game, LSU, Florida,Alabama and Kentucky.

so which team has brought their "A" game , more weeks this season? It's obviously Tennessee. This doesn't mean Georgia can't win with their "B" game but it would likely require Tennessee to be off their "A" game too. 

Which brings up another point, Georgia will get very little cred for a close win at home regardless. 



 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, putnam6 said:

LOL handwringing? just discussing this which I enjoy immensely BTW and trying to be being the devil's advocate if not a tad more realistic. I do talk a little smack as a UGA fan on Reddit from time to time but find TATF CS more level headed. 

If UGA plays like they did THIS YEAR against Kent State, Florida, Missouri on Saturday they probably lose and lose easily. 

Sure lets compare the 2021 team that had 15 players go to the NFL minus Nolan Smith to this years 2022 team, that makes a lot of sense. 2021 team had a historic defense loads of veteran leadership on both sides, 2022 Georgia's signature win was a long time ago, against a new coach coaching his first game. ie. they have one semi impressive win in 2022 and have had a fairly easy schedule the whole season. On the other side in 2022 Tennessee boat raced the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge while the 2022 Georgia Bulldogs absolutely struggled for 4 quarters with a lackluster Mizzou team, if Mizzou had a decent offense Georgia loses that game. If you cant see that, then yea we probably aren't gonna agree here. 

Regardless no I didn't think Michigan had a chance at all last season in the CFP, especially with 2021 Georgia having extended time to prepare, and coming off the 2021 SEC Championship loss. The 2021 Bulldogs were primed to throttle the Wolverines. But this is 2022... absolutely nothing that happened in 2021 matters for a game in 2022. 

It's all about probabilities getting Georgia's A game here this week would be an outlier, thats all there is to it. All 2022 Georgia needs to do to lose is play like they did against Missouri or even play like they did against Florida last week isn't gonna make for an easy victory either. FWIW Georgia has already had 4 games with multiple turnovers most of those the last 4-5 weeks. Thankfully they have been decent in recovering their own fumbles or the turnover ratio +.04  would be worse. Their last game with out a turnover or a fumble even if they recovered it was the Samford game. So chances are they got at least 1 on tap for Saturday if they have more at the wrong time or position on the field? All bets are off. Georgia is just 4-4 against the spread which as an 8 point favorite smells like a one possession game is likely coming up

Kent State 2 lost fumbles and an Int 

Mizzou 2 lost fumbles

Auburn 2 fumbles one lost

Vandy I fumble zero lost

Florida 1 fumble lost and 2 Interceptions

In other words we got 8-0 Georgia with only 1 "A" game this whole season, while 8-0 Tennessee has played pretty **** well in the Pitt game, LSU, Florida,Alabama and Kentucky.

so which team has brought their "A" game , more weeks this season? It's obviously Tennessee. This doesn't mean Georgia can't win with their "B" game but it would likely require Tennessee to be off their "A" game too. 

Which brings up another point, Georgia will get very little cred for a close win at home regardless. 

The hand wringing is directed at many different posters across multiple forums. I've seen far too many Dawg fans having this crisis of confidence and I just don't get it. TEN isn't even close to being on our level. 

And who is comparing the 2021 team to the 2022 team? The only comparison made is that both teams played very overmatched teams that their fans + media + the team itself mistakenly thought were an even match. 

UGA has only gotten up for one game this year, the demolition of an Oregon team that has gone on to demolish the rest of their schedule since then. It carried over a bit into the SCar game, but ever since then they have just been playing with their food. That won't be the case this week. 

As I said in another thread, a team and fanbase that mistakenly thinks they are a buzzsaw right now are about to be reminded what a real buzzsaw looks like. 

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3 hours ago, Isosceles said:

If I understand correctly, I got that feel too. I think Vols will win by 12 or 18 points.

 

I'm a huge Georgia fan but a guy at work spotted me 10 points if I took tenn for $100 bet. I took it 😎

Edited by Blitz28179
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43 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

The hand wringing is directed at many different posters across multiple forums. I've seen far too many Dawg fans having this crisis of confidence and I just don't get it. TEN isn't even close to being on our level. 

And who is comparing the 2021 team to the 2022 team? The only comparison made is that both teams played very overmatched teams that their fans + media + the team itself mistakenly thought were an even match. 

UGA has only gotten up for one game this year, the demolition of an Oregon team that has gone on to demolish the rest of their schedule since then. It carried over a bit into the SCar game, but ever since then they have just been playing with their food. That won't be the case this week. 

As I said in another thread, a team and fanbase that mistakenly thinks they are a buzzsaw right now are about to be reminded what a real buzzsaw looks like. 

Man I like the way you think and I hope you're right but I got a feeling Tennessee's going to give them all they want. Also it hasn't happened much in the last 2 years but before that, coaching has really killed us in big games like this 

Edited by Blitz28179
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3 hours ago, Isosceles said:

If I understand correctly, I got that feel too. I think Vols will win by 12 or 18 points.

 

I don't get that feeling at all.  The sec title game had a desperate bama team that had looked like crap for a lot of the season where they had to win to make the playoff against a team in UGA that dominated everyone who played only the first half of a lot of games who was in regardless of the end result.  This is a game where the vols and uga must win IMO to make it into the playoff.  Are you meaning something else regarding your feel? 

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5 hours ago, Isosceles said:

If I understand correctly, I got that feel too. I think Vols will win by 12 or 18 points.

 

So uga is only going to score maybe 20? 

Uga....2nd best total offense

           5th best rush

            9th best pass

Defense....5th overall

Tennessee...... 1st offense

Defense...9th rush

                127TH pass

Tenn may beat uga but it won't be a drubbing. They were EXTREMELY lucky to escape with a W against Bammer.

Chance of tenn blowout is not great. Uga stands a higher probability of blowing them out. I expect a close game but both teams will have to play clean. There's a reason why Vegas has an 8.5 spread in favor of the #3 team.

Edited by Williamb
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4 hours ago, PapaJoe said:

The VOLS get their chance to prove it this Saturday IMO. I'm just surprised at how much the media and pundits are ignoring other very relevant indicators that favor the Dawgs in the matchup.  Everyone is just jumping on the VOLS bandwagon because it is the trendy thing to do IMO.

UGAs defense may not be at the 2021 level but it is still far and away better than the 2022 Bama defense has shown this year, or any other team that UT has faced for that matter. That Matters. Oh...  and the UGA offense is right there in actual production with UT's. Not that many folks are even mentioning it. Meanwhile, the UT defense...  ummm... yeah. 🙄

The vols are the latest hyped team.  They beat a bad uf team by 5 points.  They have to go into overtime to beat pittsburgh who was playing their backup qb who stinks.  Then they beat at home a bama team that didn't realize you had to cover wrs in the game.  The same idiotic bama team that got a 1st down in field goal range and instead of running it them threw 3 straight passes and used no time on the clock and then forgot again that they had to cover wrs.  That in addition to stupid turnovers and 17 penalties and lost by 3 points.  I give them credit for destroying LSU, but LSU at noon at home is a much different atmosphere than a night game.  The vols have a terrific offense and a defense that has lots of holes.  The Dawgs have plenty of doubters and some of it is due to our play on the field being disinterested if we didn't play a team that would have given us a challenge. I think it's funny though the Dawgs get no credit for the oregon win which was a top 10 win by 46 points and then we destroy florida by 22 points and yet they talk about the 3rd qtr against them and ignore that the vols at home could only win by 5 points.. huh?  The narrative is moronic, but that's fine.  The good thing is it will be decided on the field.  I will say I have posted I think the vols will roll us, but the more I check the stats and the matchups I think it will be a very close game.  

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