The difference....

[JDaveG]

So yesterday has me thinking, and obviously most of us have posted about this stuff already, but I'm seeing a very clear, very real difference in this team.

The last several seasons have obviously been tough.  In 2019, we were 7-9, after starting 1-7 as I recall.  We went on a tear to end the season, and I attribute a lot of that to coaching changes -- Quinn gave Morris the keys to the defense and they adopted better offensive strategies that had the team competitive.  Then in 2020, we had a similarly bad start, and not much better a finish.  If you look at how we lost, it wasn't physical errors like pulling up on a deep shot to DJ Moore.  It was mental errors.  Gurley falling into the end zone.  Literally nobody covering an onside kick that, had we recovered it, would have won the game.  Worse, we did it with a much more talented roster.  The defense was hand picked by Quinn and TD.  In 2019 we had Beasley and Takk.  In 2020 we cut Beasley and cut Takk mid-season, but we still had the core of the defense they put in place.  The offense was a far cry from what Shanahan put together, especially on the o-line, but again, it's their guys that they selected.  More to the point, we had Julio and Ridley and Ryan.  We had weapons on both sides of the ball.  I think most of us by 2020 were thinking the personnel was an issue, but I don't think any of us think that improved with Ridley and Julio and Ryan off the board, cutting both starting safeties, etc.

I think most of us agree that this is a less talented roster, especially at the top.  What we do have is a string of competent backups (some of them are starting), and thus I would argue better depth.  So when we lose a starter or two, we can still compete for the most part.  We've lost London, Pitts and Patterson for one game and almost won it.  We've had Patterson out for weeks now.  We've lost the entire starting CB corps and are running practice squad guys out to play CB and not only competing, but playing .500 ball since that happened.  

So as I see it, there are two main differences between this regime and the last one.  One pertains to personnel -- we value a complete team instead of a top-heavy roster with a huge drop off if someone goes out.  That has resulted in a team that plays well above its talent level.  The second pertains to coaching -- we have coaches who put these guys in a position to succeed, and because of that, they believe they can and they go out and perform.  They're inconsistent for sure.  A more talented QB probably doesn't throw that pick in OT.  A more talented defensive secondary doesn't allow that catch to send it to OT.  A more talented set of skill players probably has us pressuring Carolina the whole game.  And a more talented roster certainly makes the Bengals game closer.  But what they do not lack is confidence and fight.  They fight you to the last snap of the ball.  And because of that, they win against teams that either can't or won't do that.

Both of those things are credit to this front office and staff.  I don't know what the future holds, but I know we have the right guys in the building.  And I can't wait to see what they put together next season.  If they can go 7-10 last season and .500 so far this season, it's going to be amazing when we're not spending $78 million of our allotted cap space on guys who aren't here anymore.

For reference, these are guys who don't play for us, but take up a cap allotment in 2022 (including guys who are still on the roster, but who were cut and re-signed, and thus what we're paying them includes some dead cap):

Dead Money

Name	Cap Number
Matt Ryan	$40,525,000
Julio Jones	$15,500,000
Deion Jones	$11,357,451
Dante Fowler Jr.	$4,666,668
Tyeler Davison	$1,213,334
Marlon Davidson	$1,128,394
Mike Davis	$750,000
Anthony Rush	$473,056
Anthony Firkser	$300,000
Dean Marlowe	$300,000
John Raine	$191,111
Kendall Sheffield	$189,922
MyCole Pruitt	$179,044
Mike Ford	$152,500
John Cominsky	$122,098
Caleb Huntley	$101,334
TOTAL	$78,649,868

The guys still on the team are Firkser, Marlowe, Pruitt, Ford and Huntley.  They total $1,032,878.00.  So they aren't the problem.  The problem is we have the top two cap hits on our team as Julio Jones and Matt Ryan, and Deion Jones is number 5.

Next season, we'll be paying that money to guys who are on the roster and do play for us, for the most part.  There will still be some dead cap from Deion Jones and a handful of others, but nothing like this.  In the NFL, for the most part you get the quality of player you can afford to pay.  If this front office keeps building those $1-5 million cap players and upgrading every position, finds a QB (whether Ridder or someone else), and gets a couple of top quality studs especially on defense?  I trust the coaching staff to get the best out of them, because they have this bunch overproducing right now.

Put simply, the philosophy is different.  And for a change, it results in us playing above our level instead of well below it.

[Herr Doktor]

4 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

So yesterday has me thinking, and obviously most of us have posted about this stuff already, but I'm seeing a very clear, very real difference in this team.

The last several seasons have obviously been tough.  In 2019, we were 7-9, after starting 1-7 as I recall.  We went on a tear to end the season, and I attribute a lot of that to coaching changes -- Quinn gave Morris the keys to the defense and they adopted better offensive strategies that had the team competitive.  Then in 2020, we had a similarly bad start, and not much better a finish.  If you look at how we lost, it wasn't physical errors like pulling up on a deep shot to DJ Moore.  It was mental errors.  Gurley falling into the end zone.  Literally nobody covering an onside kick that, had we recovered it, would have won the game.  Worse, we did it with a much more talented roster.  The defense was hand picked by Quinn and TD.  In 2019 we had Beasley and Takk.  In 2020 we cut Beasley and cut Takk mid-season, but we still had the core of the defense they put in place.  The offense was a far cry from what Shanahan put together, especially on the o-line, but again, it's their guys that they selected.  More to the point, we had Julio and Ridley and Ryan.  We had weapons on both sides of the ball.  I think most of us by 2020 were thinking the personnel was an issue, but I don't think any of us think that improved with Ridley and Julio and Ryan off the board, cutting both starting safeties, etc.

I think most of us agree that this is a less talented roster, especially at the top.  What we do have is a string of competent backups (some of them are starting), and thus I would argue better depth.  So when we lose a starter or two, we can still compete for the most part.  We've lost London, Pitts and Patterson for one game and almost won it.  We've had Patterson out for weeks now.  We've lost the entire starting CB corps and are running practice squad guys out to play CB and not only competing, but playing .500 ball since that happened.  

So as I see it, there are two main differences between this regime and the last one.  One pertains to personnel -- we value a complete team instead of a top-heavy roster with a huge drop off if someone goes out.  That has resulted in a team that plays well above its talent level.  The second pertains to coaching -- we have coaches who put these guys in a position to succeed, and because of that, they believe they can and they go out and perform.  They're inconsistent for sure.  A more talented QB probably doesn't throw that pick in OT.  A more talented defensive secondary doesn't allow that catch to send it to OT.  A more talented set of skill players probably has us pressuring Carolina the whole game.  And a more talented roster certainly makes the Bengals game closer.  But what they do not lack is confidence and fight.  They fight you to the last snap of the ball.  And because of that, they win against teams that either can't or won't do that.

Both of those things are credit to this front office and staff.  I don't know what the future holds, but I know we have the right guys in the building.  And I can't wait to see what they put together next season.  If they can go 7-10 last season and .500 so far this season, it's going to be amazing when we're not spending $78 million of our allotted cap space on guys who aren't here anymore.

For reference, these are guys who don't play for us, but take up a cap allotment in 2022 (including guys who are still on the roster, but who were cut and re-signed, and thus what we're paying them includes some dead cap):

Dead Money

Name	Cap Number
Matt Ryan	$40,525,000
Julio Jones	$15,500,000
Deion Jones	$11,357,451
Dante Fowler Jr.	$4,666,668
Tyeler Davison	$1,213,334
Marlon Davidson	$1,128,394
Mike Davis	$750,000
Anthony Rush	$473,056
Anthony Firkser	$300,000
Dean Marlowe	$300,000
John Raine	$191,111
Kendall Sheffield	$189,922
MyCole Pruitt	$179,044
Mike Ford	$152,500
John Cominsky	$122,098
Caleb Huntley	$101,334
TOTAL	$78,649,868

The guys still on the team are Firkser, Marlowe, Pruitt, Ford and Huntley.  They total $1,032,878.00.  So they aren't the problem.  The problem is we have the top two cap hits on our team as Julio Jones and Matt Ryan, and Deion Jones is number 5.

Next season, we'll be paying that money to guys who are on the roster and do play for us, for the most part.  There will still be some dead cap from Deion Jones and a handful of others, but nothing like this.  In the NFL, for the most part you get the quality of player you can afford to pay.  If this front office keeps building those $1-5 million cap players and upgrading every position, finds a QB (whether Ridder or someone else), and gets a couple of top quality studs especially on defense?  I trust the coaching staff to get the best out of them, because they have this bunch overproducing right now.

Put simply, the philosophy is different.  And for a change, it results in us playing above our level instead of well below it.

Manufacturing your own luck so to speak.  Install schemes, find guys to fill those schemes, coach them, churn the roster to keep getting better incrementally.  Scout well, draft well, coach well, etc.  This regime gets it.  And thankfully so.

[JDaveG]

By the way, I watched the game last night.  I have to say, Buffalo looks to me like a team that has talent and also plays hard.  We might never get a QB like that, but just watching their defense play gave me chills.

That's what I want here.  Give me a talented roster that plays like this one.

[PriMeTiiMe]

78m in dead cap is insane to think about. How are we 4-4.

[Killing Floor]

I think there is a slow moving culture change and guys are buying in. I believe the clutter of the losing mentality is waning if not altogether gone. That’s a huge deal because everyone in the NFL is great. All the teams are capable of winning. Our team’s culture is changing and our guys believe they can win. 
 

I don’t stress over the cap or dead money. The last Lombardi winner was as bad off as we were last year.  

[Mr.11]

Just now, PriMeTiiMe said:

78m in dead cap is insane to think about. How are we 4-4.

Not to mention 4-4 with wins against the division leader Seahawks (in Seattle) and the 49ers.

[bossFALCON™]

We just need to add the right players this off-season and we’ll be scary for a while. We’re the type of team that can win despite not having an elite QB

[samebutdifferent]

2 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

78m in dead cap is insane to think about. How are we 4-4.

NFL Salary Cap this year is just over $208M, so 37.5% of our cap is dead money. Coaches and front office have done a Herculean job with what they have to work with. 

[raumin]

One thing I have a gut feeling on is we're not going to pay out the nose for a QB. Our system seems to be about efficiency at the QB position. Doing that isn't going to command "the current highest paid QB in the league" moves anymore. We're going to sprinkle that money across the roster and give our QB a short list of things to worry about. 

[JDaveG]

1 minute ago, raumin said:

One thing I have a gut feeling on is we're not going to pay out the nose for a QB. Our system seems to be about efficiency at the QB position. Doing that isn't going to command "the current highest paid QB in the league" moves anymore. We're going to sprinkle that money across the roster and give our QB a short list of things to worry about. 

I think if they get a shot at a guy like Allen or Mahomes, they take it.

They almost pulled the trigger on Watson.

But I don't think they think they can't win without the latest and greatest at QB.  

[mjqvi]

The Ryan cap hit is crazy this year but you have to keep in mind that starting QB's are demanding insane money right now. We have a starter offsetting the Ryan cap hit in Mariota that washes out the Ryan money. Still a lot of dead money beyond that but this helps to balance out how we are 4-4. Hitting on the draft picks and cheap free agents helps a lot as well. Coaching is the difference at times in the NFL as well.

Edited October 31, 2022 by mjqvi

[Francis York Morgan]

1 minute ago, JDaveG said:

I think if they get a shot at a guy like Allen or Mahomes, they take it.

They almost pulled the trigger on Watson.

But I don't think they think they can't win without the latest and greatest at QB.  

Yeah, I think they might shoot their shot on a Lamar Jackson (even though I think we'd be better off spreading the wealth). My hope is that they'd continue building the team. But Atlanta would lose their **** over LJ.

[NOVAFalconFan]

3 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I think if they get a shot at a guy like Allen or Mahomes, they take it.

They almost pulled the trigger on Watson.

 

That may have been Blank panicking.  Hard to say.

[JDaveG]

Just now, Francis York Morgan said:

Yeah, I think they might shoot their shot on a Lamar Jackson (even though I think we'd be better off spreading the wealth). My hope is that they'd continue building the team. But Atlanta would lose their **** over LJ.

I honestly wouldn't.  I still think you have to win from the pocket to win in the NFL, and I think Smith believes that too.  We aren't running a bunch of zone read stuff.  We run it, but most of our passing game is PA and standard drop back stuff.  It's one reason I'd wager they went for Ridder over Willis.  Ridder's the one who proved he can win from the pocket.

[SwampyMux12]

8 minutes ago, samebutdifferent said:

NFL Salary Cap this year is just over $208M, so 37.5% of our cap is dead money. Coaches and front office have done a Herculean job with what they have to work with. 

The Eagles are much more talented than we are, but what they are doing with a similar dead cap situation is also very impressive!

[raumin]

2 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I think if they get a shot at a guy like Allen or Mahomes, they take it.

They almost pulled the trigger on Watson.

But I don't think they think they can't win without the latest and greatest at QB.  

Yeah they'll take a stud QB if it's there but it's not a requirement to make this offense work. The Watson move is a head scratcher. I really don't know if AB, AS, and TF were all on the same page or AB was pushing this. Looking at this team now and seeing what they've gotten out of Mariota with our draft picks the Watson move looks kinda out of character at this point (pay out the nose, give up tons of picks). I don't know if we're ever gonna know what was happening behind the scenes.  

[Mr.11]

3 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I honestly wouldn't.  I still think you have to win from the pocket to win in the NFL, and I think Smith believes that too.  We aren't running a bunch of zone read stuff.  We run it, but most of our passing game is PA and standard drop back stuff.  It's one reason I'd wager they went for Ridder over Willis.  Ridder's the one who proved he can win from the pocket.

Not to be a Lamar apologist, but I think he's shown enough to believe that he can consistently win from the pocket. Greg Roman just hasn't really adapted his play calling and offense to showcase that.

[JDaveG]

Just now, NOVAFalconFan said:

That may have been Blank panicking.  Hard to say.

Could be.  But I don't think Smith and Fontenot are the type of guys to let the owner run over their plan.

It might have been Blank's idea.  But Fontenot was basically shopping Ryan at the Senior Bowl in February.  The Watson stuff didn't start until March.  Fontenot and Smith were looking to pull the rip cord.

[VTCrunkler]

We forget Cominski as a part of the failed experiment 

[Lornoth]

8 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I honestly wouldn't.  I still think you have to win from the pocket to win in the NFL, and I think Smith believes that too.  We aren't running a bunch of zone read stuff.  We run it, but most of our passing game is PA and standard drop back stuff.  It's one reason I'd wager they went for Ridder over Willis.  Ridder's the one who proved he can win from the pocket.

Jackson can for sure play inside the pocket. A lot better than any other QB AS has coached in TENN or the ATL, maybe barring Ryan, depending on how far you think he'd regressed last year.

[Jesus]

This was a team that all they had to do was recover an onsides kick and it was a win.

This was a team that all they had to do was pick up 2 yards in Philly and they are playing for the NFCCG

This was a team that all they had to do was take a knee three times and kick a field goal and they would have won a championship. 

 

Yesterday's game was a marvel. It should have been lost like three times. They did everything they could to piss away the game and failed to do so. They failed up for once!

[MarkMc44]

We continue to build a foundation. Since last year, a baseline is being set that won't be deviated from. Say, if you play the receiver position you will block up to our standard, or you won't see the field. If you're a defensive back,you will consistently employ the tackling fundamentals that you have been coached to perform. This is the foundation we will push up from on the way to a championship. It may look unwieldy at times, but the future is extremely bright!

GO FALCONS!!!!

[ramonezy]

36 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

78m in dead cap is insane to think about. How are we 4-4.

Funny thing is that we could have easily been 6-2

[Boise Falcon Fan]

59 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

78m in dead cap is insane to think about. How are we 4-4.

We are definitely improved, and the team appears to be buying in, playing hard, never quitting, etc. However, the biggest reason is that there are a lot of really bad teams.

[TheUsualStuff]

I also think within this roster and the current locker-room, there are no sacred cows... no complacency. Something I think is very different than what we had with Quinn here.

Every man on the roster feels like they are fighting for a spot on the team every week. The high draft picks feel they are trying to earn that spot that will get them the next contract, and with this regime it's not going to be a given... and the vets and guys further down the depth chart are trying to prove they belong.

Again... no sense of entitlement in the AS locker.