Why week#8(this week) - is the perfect time to make the change at QB

[g-dawg]

I know I have agreed w/ many of you that Arthur Smith isn't likely to make a change at QB until the Falcons post-season chances are minimal - and right now - at 3-4 and tied for division lead - he's just not going to make the change.    I believe that is the likely reality.

but.....

regardless of reality,  here is why I believe would be the opportune time.

1) Schedule - next 6 games(4 home/2 road) - vs Panthers, vs. Chargers, @ Panthers, vs Bears @ Washington and vs Steelers - that's an extremely soft schedule and weighted w/ home games which would be easier transition for the rookie.

2) Playing Style - in the last two games, Arthur Smith's offense has thrown the ball 27 times which is the equivalent of one half of play for Josh Allen.    Clearly AS is managing the game for a 28 year vet and not putting much on him - if that's the style and the volume of passing we are going to play going forward, then WHY NOT play the rookie Ridder?    If you are going to "baby" the QB position, why not do it with a guy you are hoping to develop versus a guy on a short contract who isn't going to develop and has a low ceiling and slow processing speed?  

 

If you are asking Ridder to manage the game and not be a hero - run for first downs to move chains and throw on play action and when the box says throw - there just isn't a lot of opportunity to make plays to hurt your team.

 

If Arthur Smith was putting a ton on the QB and throwing 30+ times per game,   it would make more sense to me to just stick w/ the veteran QB - but the way this offense is being run now - which is somewhat effective - it can easily be done w/ a rookie with the skill set of Desmond Ridder.     If Ridder has command of the playbook,   he could easily run this offense as good or better than Marcus Mariota.

 

[Vandy]

You make some good points, but I respectfully disagree. Mariota is just a week from delivering his best performance of year (49ers game). It would disrupt the team to do it now. 

Depending on where things are at, I think the perfect time is the bye week (early December)……Assuming he’ proves to be the guy, that gives Ridder 4 games to get himself acclimated for next season. 

[g-dawg]

6 minutes ago, Vandy said:

You make some good points, but I respectfully disagree. Mariota is just a week from delivering his best performance of year (49ers game). It would disrupt the team to do it now. 

Depending on where things are at, I think the perfect time is the bye week (early December)……Assuming he’ proves to be the guy, that gives Ridder 4 games to get himself acclimated for next season. 

like I said, not likely to happen.

the Niner game?  YES, Mariota played well, but he was 13/14 for 129 yds and 2 TDs passing and 6 rushes for 50yds and 1 TD rushing....it was a well managed game but the playcalling and the ability to play smash-mouth in the running game with the offensive line and running backs -  and ability to make positive plays scrambling and extending drives by Mariota - that was the beauty of the game for Mariota.

I don't believe anyone here would say there is a shade of difference between the ability to scramble and run for first downs - that there is much of a difference at all between Mariota and Ridder - if anything, Ridder is faster - perhaps knowing when to run?  yeah that might be an advantage for Mariota but that is TBD.

The bar just isn't that high to clear for Ridder versus what Mariota is putting up.    Like I said, if Arthur is going to re-open back up the passing game, then sure...but if the formula stays the same, a lot of QBs could do what Mariota is doing.

 

[Vandy]

12 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

like I said, not likely to happen.

the Niner game?  YES, Mariota played well, but he was 13/14 for 129 yds and 2 TDs passing and 6 rushes for 50yds and 1 TD rushing....it was a well managed game but the playcalling and the ability to play smash-mouth in the running game with the offensive line and running backs -  and ability to make positive plays scrambling and extending drives by Mariota - that was the beauty of the game for Mariota.

I don't believe anyone here would say there is a shade of difference between the ability to scramble and run for first downs - that there is much of a difference at all between Mariota and Ridder - if anything, Ridder is faster - perhaps knowing when to run?  yeah that might be an advantage for Mariota but that is TBD.

The bar just isn't that high to clear for Ridder versus what Mariota is putting up.    Like I said, if Arthur is going to re-open back up the passing game, then sure...but if the formula stays the same, a lot of QBs could do what Mariota is doing.

 

And like I said, you make some good points.

But last week’s game notwithstanding, this team has been in every game but 1….they scratch and claw and never give up, and part of what personifies all of that is the character  of QB Mariota. To make a change after a game where everyone played bad would not be good for team chemistry. And again, especially one week removed from him delivering his best performance of season 
 

Ridder time is coming, it’s just not the right time yet IMO. 

[Mid-Nite-Toker]

Maybe the problem is that AS would further have to mute the offense if Ridder starts.

Ridders issues seemed to be procedural in preseason.

AS puts a lot in motion on offense and regardless of what we think of Mariota as a passer, the team ain't making pre snap penalties.

Food for thought.

The perfect week is when the HC thinks so.

[FalconsFanSince194eva]

There was plenty of times Ridder could have came in the game or made the start. Mariota has to go down, or the 2023 season has to start. Ridder is not going to be given a chance this year from AS. 

 

There are so many QB changes this year with better QB play than Mariota, if AS doesn't think he is ready now he won't think he is ready in week 18. So its whatever at this point. 

Edited October 25, 2022 by FalconsFanSince194eva

[Vandy]

1 hour ago, FalconsFanSince194eva said:

There was plenty of times Ridder could have came in the game or made the start. Mariota has to go down, or the 2023 season has to start. Ridder is not going to be given a chance this year from AS. 

Respectfully disagree with this as well. Only way this happens is if Mariota somehow turns it around by showing he can be consistently effective in passing game, which is highly unlikely.  
 

As cincy showed last week, nfl defenses will adapt and slow down our run game. 
 

It could happen sooner as I also don’t believe Mariota will stay healthy all year. 

[Swayzee]

A loss to the Panthers gets this accomplished most likely OP.

But since we apparently need to just show up and that will be good enough to sweep them, it won't likely happen.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Swayzee

[FalconsFanSince194eva]

Just now, Vandy said:

Disagree with this as well. Only way this happens is if Mariota somehow shows he can be consistently effective in passing game, which is highly unlikely.  
 

As cincy showed last week, nfl defenses will adapt and slow down our run game. 
 

It could happen sooner as I also don’t believe Mariota will stay healthy all year. 

Falcons will be in the hunt all year, AS isn't changing a thing unless Mariota goes down or Blank forces his hand. Not one person can sit here and tell me sub 500 passing yards in one month isn't enough to bench a journeyman QB. For someone who was "Number 1 on their board". 

[g-dawg]

3 minutes ago, Swayzee said:

A loss to the Panthers gets this accomplished most likely OP.

But since we apparently need to just show up and that will be good enough to sweep them.

Falcons aren't good enough on defense to just "show up and sweep" anyone - even moreso now that we are down to 3rd string in the secondary with very little passrush (although getting better).

[dirtybirds233]

Ridder will not start until...

1. Mariota cannot physically play

2. The Falcons have been eliminated from the playoffs 

3. Falcons go on a losing streak that's coupled with poor play from Mariota

[Swayzee]

1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

Falcons aren't good enough on defense to just "show up and sweep" anyone - even moreso now that we are down to 3rd string in the secondary with very little passrush (although getting better).

That is not what I have been reading..lol. 

I for one have no issue at all if we lose the battle, if it means advancing the chances of winning the war. None whatsoever.

[FalconsFanSince194eva]

Just now, dirtybirds233 said:

Ridder will not start until...

1. Mariota cannot physically play

2. The Falcons have been eliminated from the playoffs 

3. Falcons go on a losing streak that's coupled with poor play from Mariota

Number 3 is so stupid, but true which is so frustrating. 

[g-dawg]

35 minutes ago, Vandy said:

You make some good points, but I respectfully disagree. Mariota is just a week from delivering his best performance of year (49ers game). It would disrupt the team to do it now. 

Depending on where things are at, I think the perfect time is the bye week (early December)……Assuming he’ proves to be the guy, that gives Ridder 4 games to get himself acclimated for next season. 

just don't know that 4 weeks gives you enough data points to feel uber confident one way or the other to feel really good or not about a rookie QB - it can really take 2-3 years to know what you have in a QB truth be told but we live in a microwave society and especially the NFL where the term "bust" or "boom"  can be used over a very small sample size.

[g-dawg]

4 minutes ago, dirtybirds233 said:

Ridder will not start until...

1. Mariota cannot physically play

2. The Falcons have been eliminated from the playoffs 

3. Falcons go on a losing streak that's coupled with poor play from Mariota

the way the NFC South is going - it's going to be hard to be eliminated early.   Nobody wants to claim the division.

[g-dawg]

15 minutes ago, dirtybirds233 said:

Ridder will not start until...

1. Mariota cannot physically play

2. The Falcons have been eliminated from the playoffs 

3. Falcons go on a losing streak that's coupled with poor play from Mariota

it could be that simple but don't know that it is.

not sure how Ridder is progressing since pre-season ended - not one fan on TATF knows this.       Maybe it's closer (change) than we think - Maybe it's further away than we think - to the point of not even being a possibility at all.

If Ridder is progressing rapidly, you could get surprises - doubt it - but it's on the spectrum.

[Vandy]

26 minutes ago, FalconsFanSince194eva said:

Falcons will be in the hunt all year, AS isn't changing a thing unless Mariota goes down or Blank forces his hand. Not one person can sit here and tell me sub 500 passing yards in one month isn't enough to bench a journeyman QB. For someone who was "Number 1 on their board". 

Arthur Smith is savvy and smart, he sees Mariota’s pluses and minuses better than anyone in here does…and he’s strategic, and I totally believe he has a plan for Ridder. He’s just not gonna tell media what that is until he executes it. Which again, is very smart in his part. 

[Ridder Me This]

Playcalling on Sunday and staying with Mariota at QB are indictments on multiple fonts:

OL pass protection

Ridder NOT having a grasp of the playbook/ready to play in AS mind

Mariota being the "Leader" for the offense - cant pull the plug on that right now still being division leader

AS is going to "die" by the sword of running the ball in 3 yards, cloud of dust mentality and hope to keep his defense off the field bc of injuries

The defense is AVERAGE...but a ball control offense minimmizes possessions that have to be defended...

This team is AVERAGE...but I do hate that we have TWO Top 15 picks at skill positions requiring passing the ball, that are basically not being utilized....

Edited October 25, 2022 by Matt_The Iceman_Ryan

[Dark Bird Rising]

22 minutes ago, dirtybirds233 said:

Ridder will not start until...

1. Mariota cannot physically play

2. The Falcons have been eliminated from the playoffs 

3. Falcons go on a losing streak that's coupled with poor play from Mariota

STOP! You're crushing their dreams with the reality of sound football.

[OrthoPTSD]

9 minutes ago, Matt_The Iceman_Ryan said:

This team is AVERAGE...but I do hate that we have TWO Top 15 picks at skill positions requiring passing the ball, that are basically not being utilized...

Even worse is  having TWO Top 8 picks not being utilized

[Swayzee]

21 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Arthur Smith is savvy and smart, he sees Mariota’s pluses and minuses better than anyone in here does…and he’s strategic, and I totally believe he has a plan for Ridder. He’s just not gonna tell media what that is until he executes it. Which again, is very smart in his part. 

Running the football down by 3 scores is not the definition of savvy and smart. 

[celtiksage]

10 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Arthur Smith is savvy and smart, he sees Mariota’s pluses and minuses better than anyone in here does…and he’s strategic, and I totally believe he has a plan for Ridder. He’s just not gonna tell media what that is until he executes it. Which again, is very smart in his part. 

I think this is the key. I also agree with OP that it's a perfect time for Ridder.

@Vandy mentioned character, which is personified by Mariota. I agree with that too. But, I also think Ridder's character personifies it even more. As of yet, Ridder is like the kid that doesn't fear death, and that's what makes his trajectory sky high at the moment. Mariota on the other hand has the potential to be a great game manager, but he isn't going to trust his 6'4"+ receivers in single coverage to body out a DB, and I feel like we're starting to see him play not to lose instead of playing to win.

The QB debate though has already been answered by AS himself. In a presser within the past 3 weeks, someone asked about the switch and he shot it down, saying (and I paraphrase) it's about ball security and not turning it over, which seemed to be a problem early for Mariota, but which he seems to have corrected. So I think barring an injury, Mariota turning the ball over problematically, or we are just out of the hunt, I have a feeling we have a ways to go yet. A loss to Carolina though and Mariota's seat gets a lot warmer.

Nice thread OP and I think almost everyone in it is correct in what they're saying.

[Swayzee]

9 minutes ago, OrthoPTSD said:

Even worse is  having TWO Top 8 picks not being utilized

Literally the #1 receiver taken in 2 straight drafts. 

 

[PriMeTiiMe]

just gotta accept that we are stuck watching Mariota stink it up every weekend until the wheels fall completely off. 

[Sun Tzu 7]

1 hour ago, Vandy said:

You make some good points, but I respectfully disagree. Mariota is just a week from delivering his best performance of year (49ers game). It would disrupt the team to do it now. 

Depending on where things are at, I think the perfect time is the bye week (early December)……Assuming he’ proves to be the guy, that gives Ridder 4 games to get himself acclimated for next season. 

But I think we're all missing a very important part about the 49ers game.

What would it have been like if the Falcons didn't wear the red helmet Unis? I mean the record speaks for itself.