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This is a passing league.... Isn't it?


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While in years past throwing for 300 yards was nearly expected from winning teams in 2022. There has been a new trend going around this year that might make you think you were watching 90's Football.

Defense and a good run game with timely throws is winning games in 2022. 

In week 6 of the NFL the average passing yards of quarterbacks that won their games totaled up to a whopping 219.07. A  good number of quarterbacks didn't even crack the 200 marker though with quarterbacks such as Zach Wilson, 110 yards, Mariota, 129, Jalen Hurts, 155,  Daniel Jones, 173, Kirk Cousins, 175, and Geno Smith, 197, all failing to reach the 200 yard mark in their teams respective wins.

It's not just this week though! In week 5 during a 30-28 win over the Browns, Justin Herbert threw a grand total of  228 yards. In a 27-22 win over the Packers Daniel Jones only threw for 217.

Week 4 saw  more of the same with Josh Allen barely breaking 200 with 213 passing yards in a 23-20 win over the Browns. Jalen hurts did much the same with 204 passing yards in a 29-21 win over the Jaguars.

Is this the new direction of the NFL, or is this year just an anomaly? It remains to be seen, but I'm excited to see how the rest of this season goes!

Edited by Banana Bandit
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Rules skew things towards passing offenses.

Most colleges throw the ball around a ton and I think defenses in college and the NFL have evolved to stop passing games.

So the balance has gone towards stopping the pass.

When that happens most teams are not set up to stop the run. If you're a run heavy team then you have an advantage if your defense can hold up.

As far as the rest of the league you're seeing a combination of bad o-line play and good pass rush. As we saw with Ryan over the years, it's hard to throw the ball all over the place when you give up pressure almost immediately.

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The NFL goes in cycles. All these teams loaded up on smaller, faster defenders that are better in pass coverage than they are in stout run defense. They're playing 75% nickel defense with 5 dbs and two lbs. Teams are now starting to counter that with heavier run games. Teams were hitting the high flying offenses with that two deep shell look that completely takes the safeties out of the run game so those teams are now countering that. 

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1. QB play this year has been bad. I hate Brady but he was right in that in general there has been a lot of bad / middling play this season by almost every team. Mahomes and Allen are really clearly better than everyone else right now and it’s not that close (sorry Herbert fans). After those two it’s kinda a crap fest that somehow ends up with Geno Smith arguably having a top 5 QB season so far. A lot of the old QBs are showing their age while some of the young guys have not quite come along yet. 
 

2. 5 of the top 10 rushing teams currently have losing records, and 8 of 10 are only .500 or worse. Whereas only 1 of the top 10 passing teams has a losing record, and 4 more are .500. 
 

Idk if I’d say the league is becoming run oriented quite yet. 

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2 minutes ago, Atlantafan21 said:

1. QB play this year has been bad. I hate Brady but he was right in that in general there has been a lot of bad / middling play this season by almost every team. Mahomes and Allen are really clearly better than everyone else right now and it’s not that close (sorry Herbert fans). After those two it’s kinda a crap fest that somehow ends up with Geno Smith arguably having a top 5 QB season so far. A lot of the old QBs are showing their age while some of the young guys have not quite come along yet. 
 

2. 5 of the top 10 rushing teams currently have losing records, and 8 of 10 are only .500 or worse. Whereas only 1 of the top 10 passing teams has a losing record, and 4 more are .500. 
 

Idk if I’d say the league is becoming run oriented quite yet. 

I think it will stay a passing league for years to come. 
 

The league will still promote it. Only knowledgeable football fans appreciate the blocking designs designed around running the football.

most casual fans think that stuff is boring.

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20 minutes ago, SkerFalcon8710 said:

Also the NFL is cyclical… every decade you see this transition.. then some teams will light up the scoreboard and it ebs back towards passing league 

Yeah if you think about it, it makes sense. Teams build to the "meta" and some do it better than others (due to a better passing QB, OL, etc)... then to combat the teams with elite "meta" builds (passing) they craft a defense built on stopping the pass and controlling the ball. Then the meta shifts again. 

 

Video game analogy, but this happens in online competitive Call of Duty, Mortal Kombat, etc... all the time. 

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Similar to Tennessee or Baltimore last half decade.  Great rushing offense and works great in regular season, but if you get behind in a game and are forced to drop back and throw when the defense knows that’s coming, not happening.  Will be an early out every year of the playoffs if you can’t throw the ball effectively.  I love where this team is going, and it’s so nice to finally see us bully people in the run game, but it’s a passing league at the end of the day.  

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11 minutes ago, Rings said:

Similar to Tennessee or Baltimore last half decade.  Great rushing offense and works great in regular season, but if you get behind in a game and are forced to drop back and throw when the defense knows that’s coming, not happening.  Will be an early out every year of the playoffs if you can’t throw the ball effectively.  I love where this team is going, and it’s so nice to finally see us bully people in the run game, but it’s a passing league at the end of the day.  

We ran our way back into the Tampa game, though.  And running instead of throwing to Felipe Franks earlier could have kept us from getting down 21 in the first place.

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The nfl is a copycat league. It became a passing league because of the greatest show on turf. Because of that teams wanted to get explosive, which on turn changed defenses. The big burly LB was replaced by smaller faster LB’s in the mold of Mike Singletary.
 

Art started changing the architect of offenses in Tenn with Henry. But it was only one team. Now that he has his own team he’s showing that the dominant running back or running game is a problem for teams built to play in a “passing league”.
 

All it takes is a team built like us to win a SB and the shift begins. That big back like Henry and CP will he coveted again in the mold of Jim Brown Eric Dickerson and Earl Campbell, which will create a shift in defense going after the big burly MLB’s again. I do believe we will be the blueprint for teams to make a shift. 

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18 minutes ago, NOVAFalconFan said:

We ran our way back into the Tampa game, though.  And running instead of throwing to Felipe Franks earlier could have kept us from getting down 21 in the first place.

Running is great if you have time to do it.  We started that comeback at the end of the third quarter.  It’s also helpful when the other team can’t do anything on offense in spots and stalls out.  But if you are out of time outs and have a minute left in the game down a score, it doesn’t matter how good your run game is, you have to be able to pass the ball.

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We look like a Big Ten team circa 2000-2010, where teams with dominant lines and decent backs would run the ball down the throats of lesser opponents. I love it because the Niners knew what we were doing by the third quarter and still couldn't stop it. The question will be whether Arthur is going to ready to throw over the defense when one of the safeties inevitably lines up five yards off the line of scrimmage. Can't wait until CP84 comes back and we line him up with Smith in the backfield before splitting him out wide. Covering him with a linebacker's going to make a DC lose sleep and then, we can either throw it or let Smith get a carry for 5 yards.

We finally have an identity on both sides of the ball. Didn't see that coming this season.

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Just now, FalconFanSince1969 said:

You think that we can run our way back versus the bills or chiefs tho? 

The defense has to do its part, whether early or late. If we can stop them early enough in the game, I think we can come back on either of them. But it makes no difference if they get a 17 point lead and when we finally score, they keep on truckin'.

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18 minutes ago, JayOzOne said:

Can't wait until CP84 comes back and we line him up with Smith in the backfield before splitting him out wide. Covering him with a linebacker's going to make a DC lose sleep and then, we can either throw it or let Smith get a carry for 5 yards.

 

I am racking my brain, who is Smith?  Are we going with a player-coach?

Edited by NOVAFalconFan
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20 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

You think that we can run our way back versus the bills or chiefs tho? 

I think by slowing the game down and running in the first place pressure is put on their defense, and any drive that doesn't end with points feels like a betrayal to their bruised front 7. That's a recipe to keep them from making a big gap to begin with.

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