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Bill Barnwell: The Falcons are likely going to be the worst team in the league this season


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19 hours ago, MilleniumFalcon said:

Predicting NFL teams most likely to decline in 2022: Numbers, history show Packers, Raiders, Steelers, Titans, Falcons will lose more games

Atlanta Falcons (7-10)

Atlanta finished with just 4.9 expected wins, which ranked 30th in the NFL. It needed a late-season surge to rise from the very bottom of the DVOA charts, eventually settling in at 30th by that metric. It finished the season 27th in FPI and 29th by the Simple Rating System. By every measure besides win-loss record, the Falcons were one of the league's worst teams.

How did they get to 7-10? Unsurprisingly, they pulled out some squeakers. Aided by an excellent season from star kicker Younghoe Koo, they went 6-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Their largest victory came by a whopping eight points over the Panthers, who were rolling out the duo of Cam Newton and PJ Walker at quarterback.

Three of those seven victories came over backup quarterbacks, with the Falcons also topping Trevor Siemian during his time starting for the rival Saints and Tim Boyle's Lions. Their other wins came against the Dolphins, Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Their average win came by 4.7 points. Their average loss was by nearly 18 points.

With that being said, the Falcons are likely going to be the worst team in the league this season. Smith was furious at suggestions his team was tanking the season. I take him at his word. I don't think the Falcons are going to be tanking, because they aren't trying to lose on purpose. It'll just end up looking that way.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/34444732/predicting-nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-2022-numbers-history-show-packers-raiders-steelers-titans-falcons-lose-more-games

We'll see how well this article ages

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While I don't see them being the worst team in the league, I can see them losing several games while making their opponents earn their W in the waning minutes. In other words, while I think that they'll eclipse their win total from last year, I don't see them getting blown out of the water by the better teams either...

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4 minutes ago, Skeetbird said:

The CNN of sports..LOL  yeah ESPN lost my attention years ago.

Once Stu and Tom Mees passed away, and Dan Patrick and Chris Berman left, the love of the game so to speak left that network.  Now it's nothing but generating opinion based on whatever will enrage people to look.  I can safely say I have not watched ESPN in any form since Stu's passing.

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  • 2 months later...
On 8/24/2022 at 12:03 PM, MilleniumFalcon said:

Predicting NFL teams most likely to decline in 2022: Numbers, history show Packers, Raiders, Steelers, Titans, Falcons will lose more games

Atlanta Falcons (7-10)

Atlanta finished with just 4.9 expected wins, which ranked 30th in the NFL. It needed a late-season surge to rise from the very bottom of the DVOA charts, eventually settling in at 30th by that metric. It finished the season 27th in FPI and 29th by the Simple Rating System. By every measure besides win-loss record, the Falcons were one of the league's worst teams.

How did they get to 7-10? Unsurprisingly, they pulled out some squeakers. Aided by an excellent season from star kicker Younghoe Koo, they went 6-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Their largest victory came by a whopping eight points over the Panthers, who were rolling out the duo of Cam Newton and PJ Walker at quarterback.

Three of those seven victories came over backup quarterbacks, with the Falcons also topping Trevor Siemian during his time starting for the rival Saints and Tim Boyle's Lions. Their other wins came against the Dolphins, Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Their average win came by 4.7 points. Their average loss was by nearly 18 points.

With that being said, the Falcons are likely going to be the worst team in the league this season. Smith was furious at suggestions his team was tanking the season. I take him at his word. I don't think the Falcons are going to be tanking, because they aren't trying to lose on purpose. It'll just end up looking that way.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/34444732/predicting-nfl-teams-most-likely-decline-2022-numbers-history-show-packers-raiders-steelers-titans-falcons-lose-more-games

Hmmmm......I wonder what Mr.Barnwell thinks about his previous prediction....  

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Yeah, he was wrong. But our guesses here on the forum were pretty off as well. Something like „far better than the Giants, Jets and Jaguars“… was one of my favourites. At least 1/3 correct 👍 

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5 hours ago, ShoNuff said:

Hmmmm......I wonder what Mr.Barnwell thinks about his previous prediction....  

He doesn't! The talking heads never do. Thier entire career is based on judgment/analysis of the statistics of other people's hard work!

Musk should create e a YouTube channel that holds the talking heads accountable for their predictions 😉

I'll volunteer to hold Cynthia Frelund accountable for her 5.5 Falcons prediction. She's been bad, and needs to be punished. 😛

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8 minutes ago, tbhawksfan said:

The betting line on the Falcons was 5.5 so we still have to win to get past that.

I predicted 6 or 7. I think that I'm still in line to be right. Not so much to crow about

Finding folks that predicted we would do even worse to crow is pretty weak

Pretty sure our over / under was 4.5, so we’re actually past that.

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14 minutes ago, Atlantafan21 said:

Pretty sure our over / under was 4.5, so we’re actually past that.

4.5 or 5.5. We're still talking bottem tier. Even if we get to 7 wins, like last season that was worth #8 pick. You do understand that the discussion is that we are a poor team. Homering to crow about 7 or 8 wins just because we "over-achieved" is weak. Losers lose and winners win. For the moment we are square in the lose category

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On 11/24/2022 at 11:41 AM, tbhawksfan said:

4.5 or 5.5. We're still talking bottem tier. Even if we get to 7 wins, like last season that was worth #8 pick. You do understand that the discussion is that we are a poor team. Homering to crow about 7 or 8 wins just because we "over-achieved" is weak. Losers lose and winners win. For the moment we are square in the lose category

Depends on how you define “poor”. For a roster with a near bottom of league in talent, we’ve greatly exceeded expectations. Which to me makes us a good team…..which all comes down to coaching and buy-in.

 

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24 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Depends on how you define “poor”. For a roster with a near bottom of league in talent, we’ve greatly exceeded expectations. Which to me makes us a good team. 

Bottom of the league in talent is the reality. No matter how you try to dress it up it still equals a mosing team. When we lose, I look for one thing. Improvement and investment in the things that are going to lead to improvement. Playing Mariota and our collection of one year cheap contracts does not lead to future improvement. Coach is hedging on future improvement for one or two meaningless wins this (and last) season

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On 8/24/2022 at 1:43 PM, PokerSteve said:

After having watched this team play, I can basically ignore what the pundits are saying. Again who knows what the W's and L's will look like, but it's idiotic to think this team won't be competitive. Probably have twice as much talent as last year's team. We're going to be much closer to middle of the pack than bottom-feeder team by season's end. 

I've never quoted myself, but on this auspicious occasion I wanted to bring this earlier post to the fore so all may gaze in wonder at the incredibleness of my prognostification skillz. We are currently ranked 16th, so there are 15 teams ahead of us and 16 teams behind us. Middle. of. the. Pack.

Thank you! Thank you very much!! 

Oscars academy awards fred astaire GIF - Find on GIFER

Bill Barnwell ~ ON YOUR KNEES AND SHINE MY SHOES WITH YOUR TONGUE. 

 

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2 hours ago, tbhawksfan said:

Bottom of the league in talent is the reality. No matter how you try to dress it up it still equals a mosing team. When we lose, I look for one thing. Improvement and investment in the things that are going to lead to improvement. Playing Mariota and our collection of one year cheap contracts does not lead to future improvement. Coach is hedging on future improvement for one or two meaningless wins this (and last) season

I wouldn’t say we’re bottom of the league in talent. We may be bottom in name recognition but there’s talent on this team. The ONLY position that can make THE difference, even with what we have, is QB. We’re a stud qb away from being a dominant team. If we had that we’d be a 8/9 win team at this point. So it’s not the lack of talent overall. It’s there. It’s the lack of a qb that can take over the game

 

We have an excellent RB room

We have a good wr room

we have a good TE room

we have a decent oline room

we have a decent dline room 

we have a good lb room 

we have good cb room

we have a good safety room

we have an excellent special teams room 

We have a below average qb room 

 

And we can get better at all of these positions  

 

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

I wouldn’t say we’re bottom of the league in talent. We may be bottom in name recognition but there’s talent on this team. The ONLY position that can make THE difference, even with what we have, is QB. We’re a stud qb away from being a dominant team. If we had that we’d be a 8/9 win team at this point. So it’s not the lack of talent overall. It’s there. It’s the lack of a qb that can take over the game

 

We have an excellent RB room

We have a good wr room

we have a good TE room

we have a decent oline room

we have a decent dline room 

we have a good lb room 

we have good cb room

we have a good safety room

we have an excellent special teams room 

We have a below average qb room 

 

And we can get better at all of these positions  

 

 

 

 

Just as an observation, Ryan elevated the whole team with his play for many years. if Ridder can do the same, this team can be special next season.

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