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How many touchdowns do you predict Kyle Pitts will get in 2022 if he plays all 17 games?


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They certainly won’t be able to double or triple KP in the RZ anymore.  All the big bodies good at making contested catches should drastically improve RZ efficiency.  

I was thinking 6, but only because we are able to run it and pound in all the short yardage TDs and don’t have to get cute and throw it.

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8 was also my thought upon reading the title. I think (hope) after the season ended and AS went back to watch film, he probably came to the same conclusion most of us did: We gotta get Pitts more involved.

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I would say maybe the same as last year,, But with all the additions , mainly London..  I don't think he'll get more than last year.. if anything , less yards.. with a much much better running game , and a lot of WRs and TEs other than himself.   I'd be really shocked if he got more yards than last year..  And to me that would be a good thing.. Because it keeps the opposing D#s guessing...  And that is why IMO this year we'll have at least 10 wins.

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15 hours ago, Falcons Fan MVP said:

KP only scored one touchdown last year. Now he will have a new QB and more wide receivers to take pressure off of him. 

My prediction 8 touchdowns.

8 seems like a good baseline.  I don't care as much about his individual production as I do our ability to capitalize in the Red Zone. If he's creating opps for our other receivers that is valuable too.  I don't want Koo to be our offensive MVP again.  

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Let’s think of this logically and mathematically.

First, we know that we have a small sample size of 1 NFL season. Within said NFL season we have a value of 1 touchdown.

Coincidentally, the unknown value is for an equal amount of seasons in which we have a given precedent.

Now, generally speaking we have a 1 to 1 ratio of unknown values to known values. The kicker, so to speak 😉, is that exponential growth generally happens within the sample size that we have been asked to ascertain.

Given that each person matures physically generally at the subjects age you can expect an increase in capabilities. Also given, you have a knowledge of a system that will most certainly be stronger as well as a comfort level mentality of being in such a state of mind.

one would think this would mean that the subject’s production would certainly go up during the upcoming season, but that is not always the case.

In order to get a better understanding of what we are working with, we must examine not only the positives, but the negatives as well.

The negatives that could come into play are other teams have a more knowledge of our subjects strength and weaknesses. Surely they will use this knowledge to attempt to offset the subjects growth from his initial season.

Second, you have a phenomenon known as the sophomore slump. This is a general term used to explain a lack of productivity in one’s second year.

You see, when generic questions are asked continuously and thrown onto the proverbial wall, there can only be one true answer after reading such questions as, ‘Why is the sky blue?’ for months at a time.

That said answer will now be and forever more be given as, ‘Who knows….’

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Last season blah blah blah. 
He’s a unicorn and blah blah blah. 
 

But the amount of catches he had would have realistically counted as WR3 on a lot of teams in the NFL. 
There were games we lost because coach pined him 1st and 4th quarters. There were games we lost because Pitts was riding pines when we were in the red zone. And I won’t let that go until coach wakes up to the opportunity. Would we have benched Julio in the red zone?  Will we sit Drake in the red zone?  Or pull him after the 3rd quarter every game?

Some of y’all come at Pitts for only scoring once.  Come at Ragone and Smith for sitting him in clutch situations!  If he’s our best player THEN play him in the best moments.

 

 

Edited by Killing Floor
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22 hours ago, Emmitt said:

Let’s think of this logically and mathematically.

First, we know that we have a small sample size of 1 NFL season. Within said NFL season we have a value of 1 touchdown.

Coincidentally, the unknown value is for an equal amount of seasons in which we have a given precedent.

Now, generally speaking we have a 1 to 1 ratio of unknown values to known values. The kicker, so to speak 😉, is that exponential growth generally happens within the sample size that we have been asked to ascertain.

Given that each person matures physically generally at the subjects age you can expect an increase in capabilities. Also given, you have a knowledge of a system that will most certainly be stronger as well as a comfort level mentality of being in such a state of mind.

one would think this would mean that the subject’s production would certainly go up during the upcoming season, but that is not always the case.

In order to get a better understanding of what we are working with, we must examine not only the positives, but the negatives as well.

The negatives that could come into play are other teams have a more knowledge of our subjects strength and weaknesses. Surely they will use this knowledge to attempt to offset the subjects growth from his initial season.

Second, you have a phenomenon known as the sophomore slump. This is a general term used to explain a lack of productivity in one’s second year.

You see, when generic questions are asked continuously and thrown onto the proverbial wall, there can only be one true answer after reading such questions as, ‘Why is the sky blue?’ for months at a time.

That said answer will now be and forever more be given as, ‘Who knows….’

Okay but how many cups of Gatorade?

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My initial thought was 12.

However, after looking up stats on guys like Tony G., Gronk, T. Kelce, etc., I think 12 is certainly not impossible, but it's probably a bit ambitious.

Consider this for the sake of perspective:

Tony Gonzalez
In 17 seasons in the NFL, Gonzo never had 12 TDs in a season
Only had double-digit TDs in a season 3 times (11, 10, 10)
He averaged 6.5 TDs per season over the course of his entire career

Rob Gronkowski
In 11 NFL seasons, Gronk had 12 or more TDs in a season just twice
He had 5 seasons with double-digit TDs (17, 12, 11, 11, 10)
He averaged 8.3 TDs per season over the course of his entire career

Travis Kelce
In 9 NFL seasons, Kelce has never had 12 or more TDs in a season
He has just two double-digit TDs seasons thus far (11, 10)
He averaged 6.3 TDs per season over the course of his entire career to this point

Antonio Gates
In 16 seasons in the NFL, Gates had 12 or more TDs in a season just twice
Only had double-digit TDs in a season 4 times (13, 12, 10, 10)
He averaged 7.25 TDs per season over the course of his entire career

Jason Witten
In 17 seasons in the NFL, Witten never had 12 TDs in a season
Never had double-digit TDs in a season
He averaged 4.3 TDs per season over the course of his entire career

Shannon Sharpe
In 14 seasons in the NFL, Sharpe never had 12 TDs in a season
Only had double-digit TDs in a season 2 times (10, 10)
He averaged 4.4 TDs per season over the course of his entire career

Jimmy Graham
In 12 seasons in the NFL, Graham has had 12 or more TDs in a season just once
He has had double-digit TDs in a season 4 times (16, 11, 10, 10)
He has averaged 7 TDs per season over the course of his entire career to this point

Vernon Davis
In 14 seasons in the NFL, Davis had 12 or more TDs in a season just twice
Those were the only times he had double-digit TDs in a season (13, 13)
He averaged 4.5 TDs per season over the course of his entire career

Collectively, that is 96 seasons with only 7 seasons of 12 or more TDs

So with all that in mind, I think 5-8 TDs is a realistic expectation for Pitts this year, and anything above that is just icing on the cake.

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