2021-22 MLB Offseason Thread

[K26dp]

30 minutes ago, jidady said:

1) Freddie had severe COVID.

2) He didn't have 77 strikeouts.

3) His OPS was 55 points higher.

Just generally speaking, that's the whole point. Freddie is safe, while Olson's bat comes and goes. Olson's career OPS is only slightly higher than Freddie's worst two seasons since 2013.

People are painting this like a slam dunk when it's not.

We have a World Series title. So, I'm happy...euphoric even. But this was the latest unforced error by Liberty.

1. Freddie did not have COVID in 2021.

2. You are parsing out a 60-game sample from a career 575 games in. His career 23.4% K-rate is typical for a quality slugger in this era. 

3. Wait, Olson's worst career season was worse than Freeman's MVP season? Wow.

Olson's bat doesn't "come and go". He's played 3 full seasons plus the abortion that was 2020. In the 3 real seasons, he's been an absurdly good player. Last season was his best. He's 28 years old and about to hit his prime. This is a good bet, and you are looking for a reason to be mad and trying hard to make Olson out to be far riskier than he is. You're better than this.

Finally... "Liberty" didn't make this decision. Alex Anthopoulos did. He chose to act to get Olson before another team could rather than wait for Freeman to reject the best offer he was willing to make and end up having to sign Anthony Rizzo who truly is a risky play. We'll see if it works out for the Braves or not. Of course it's not a slam dunk -- there's a reason why franchise-type players rarely leave good teams in their primes. It's a weird situation, exacerbated by a lockout that threw the timing of the entire offseason into turmoil. 

 

[jidady]

24 minutes ago, K26dp said:

1. Freddie did not have COVID in 2021.

2. You are parsing out a 60-game sample from a career 575 games in. His career 23.4% K-rate is typical for a quality slugger in this era. 

3. Wait, Olson's worst career season was worse than Freeman's MVP season? Wow.

Olson's bat doesn't "come and go". He's played 3 full seasons plus the abortion that was 2020. In the 3 real seasons, he's been an absurdly good player. Last season was his best. He's 28 years old and about to hit his prime. This is a good bet, and you are looking for a reason to be mad and trying hard to make Olson out to be far riskier than he is. You're better than this.

Finally... "Liberty" didn't make this decision. Alex Anthopoulos did. He chose to act to get Olson before another team could rather than wait for Freeman to reject the best offer he was willing to make and end up having to sign Anthony Rizzo who truly is a risky play. We'll see if it works out for the Braves or not. Of course it's not a slam dunk -- there's a reason why franchise-type players rarely leave good teams in their primes. It's a weird situation, exacerbated by a lockout that threw the timing of the entire offseason into turmoil. 

 

Sorry, I am definitely wrong about #1.

As for the start of #3, you know what that argument was. You just don't like it. Olson has a career OPS of .859. The last time Freddie had a season OPS worse than that was 2015. And Olson is only one year removed from facing *TONS* of questions about his swing.

I happen to quite like how he handled it. There was an article last year wherein he said failure teaches more than anything else. That's a mature piece of wisdom.

To a larger point nobody has said it was a bad bet. In fact, that's the whole point. It's a gamble, as you acknowledge. Freddie was the safe play. Atlanta's had some gambles pay off, but we've also had BJ Upton, Nate McClouth, and Dan Uggla, among others.

Eight years is an eternity, and we just gave a contract to someone who had a washout season only 18 months ago. If he starts striking out 36% of the time again, we're toast.

We can write it off as a pandemic year if you like, but it still counts. There's what I'd estimate as a 30 percent chance we really live to regret this one. The stadium change really should help him a lot, but he has to make consistent contact first.

As for the last thing, Liberty absolutely DID make this decision. That's the whole point. They had literally YEARS to work out an agreement with Freeman. They didn't. Were there extenuating circumstances? Of course. But it's also the latest example of the problems of a corporation running a baseball team as an asset rather than as an attempt to win.

People are casually describing this move as a masterstroke. In reality, it's a disloyal, economically motivated move. But it could still pay off in spades. Our karma isn't good on this one, though.

[Unknøwn]

 

[Unknøwn]

MLB and the Union have agreed to keep Bauer restricted through the first two weeks of the season.  

[K26dp]

43 minutes ago, jidady said:

Sorry, I am definitely wrong about #1.

As for the start of #3, you know what that argument was. You just don't like it. Olson has a career OPS of .859. The last time Freddie had a season OPS worse than that was 2015. And Olson is only one year removed from facing *TONS* of questions about his swing.

I happen to quite like how he handled it. There was an article last year wherein he said failure teaches more than anything else. That's a mature piece of wisdom.

To a larger point nobody has said it was a bad bet. In fact, that's the whole point. It's a gamble, as you acknowledge. Freddie was the safe play. Atlanta's had some gambles pay off, but we've also had BJ Upton, Nate McClouth, and Dan Uggla, among others.

Eight years is an eternity, and we just gave a contract to someone who had a washout season only 18 months ago. If he starts striking out 36% of the time again, we're toast.

We can write it off as a pandemic year if you like, but it still counts. There's what I'd estimate as a 30 percent chance we really live to regret this one. The stadium change really should help him a lot, but he has to make consistent contact first.

As for the last thing, Liberty absolutely DID make this decision. That's the whole point. They had literally YEARS to work out an agreement with Freeman. They didn't. Were there extenuating circumstances? Of course. But it's also the latest example of the problems of a corporation running a baseball team as an asset rather than as an attempt to win.

People are casually describing this move as a masterstroke. In reality, it's a disloyal, economically motivated move. But it could still pay off in spades. Our karma isn't good on this one, though.

If you think I'm trying to argue that Olson has been just as good as Freeman, I'm not. Olson was better than Freeman last season, it could flip in 2022. It's certainly within the realm of reason to believe Freeman's next six seasons will be better than Olson's. But you should acknowledge that its not as safe a bet as you say. Freeman's OPS+ last season was his worst since 2015. A blip, or the first small sign of decline? I don't think its unreasonable to think a talented 28 year old hitter will be better over the next six years than a 31 year old. It's pretty clear what Alex Anthopoulos thinks.

The pandemic year counts as 60 games. Just because it was a discreet 60 games doesn't change that. It should be given 10% as much consideration as the rest of Olson's career. The same goes for Freeman for that matter, only 4%.

Which do you think is more likely to happen... that a hitter with a career 23% K rate, who improved to 17% over the course of a full season in his age 27 season, maintains a K% somewhere in that range or reverts to a 31% (not 36%, not sure where you are getting that) that he showed over a 60-game sample? Come on. And you also know that strikeout rate is an indirect indication of production. Olson makes consistent contact. 

Finally, your eagerness to proscribe evil motivations to people is weird. Economically motivated? Of course it was. Liberty sets the budget -- we all wish it was higher. But nobody in Liberty Media told Alex Anthopoulos *not* to sign Freddie Freeman and you know it. Liberty Media made Freddie Freeman a millionaire 134 times over, and to Freddie's credit he was worth every single penny. But this contract is for the next part of his career, and Anthopoulos had no obligation to pay Freeman more than he felt he was worth no more than Freeman had an obligation to take less than he felt he was worth. 

 

 

[Unknøwn]

A reminder that the union nixed robo umps for the next 2 seasons

 

[Ransack]

1 hour ago, Unknøwn said:

 

Yeah not sure I buy it.

[Unknøwn]

11 minutes ago, Ransack said:

Yeah not sure I buy it.

I still think his agent screwed him. Seems they probably thought he could pull $30M. I'd guess 6 years, $180M is what they would get. So, he walked away from 5 at 140M in Atlanta thinking he could get another year and $30M. Instead he got 1 year and $22M more total but a nearly 14% tax on it. 

[Unknøwn]

 

[Ransack]

6 hours ago, Unknøwn said:

I still think his agent screwed him. Seems they probably thought he could pull $30M. I'd guess 6 years, $180M is what they would get. So, he walked away from 5 at 140M in Atlanta thinking he could get another year and $30M. Instead he got 1 year and $22M more total but a nearly 14% tax on it. 

Yeah it was a poor job to say the least. With that tax rate he's basically playing that 6th year for free. Total mismanagement by Freddie and his agent and now having signed with LA he's not exactly a popular guy around here anymore.

[Unknøwn]

Reports that the runner on 2B will be added back in. Not official but apparently it's pretty close. Teams and managers are worried about burning through arms after a short spring. 

[ATL Fan in the DMV]

57 minutes ago, Unknøwn said:

Reports that the runner on 2B will be added back in. Not official but apparently it's pretty close. Teams and managers are worried about burning through arms after a short spring. 

Ugh! Make it stop! 

[Unknøwn]

2 minutes ago, ATL Fan in the DMV said:

Ugh! Make it stop! 

I actually liked it. Didn't mind the 7 inning games either. 

[dmite]

33 minutes ago, Unknøwn said:

I actually liked it. Didn't mind the 7 inning games either. 

I didn’t mind it for the regular season at all. Don’t need the marathons past midnight anymore. There’s only so much free baseball we need. 

[Unknøwn]

6 minutes ago, dmite said:

I didn’t mind it for the regular season at all. Don’t need the marathons past midnight anymore. There’s only so much free baseball we need. 

Yes, my thoughts too. I can't commit 5 hours to watching a game that goes 15 innings. 

[Unknøwn]

Freddie looks uncomfortable 

 

[For the A]

I don’t mind starting a runner on second. With double headers I prefer the make up game be 7 innings and the scheduled game remain 9 innings. 

[Unknøwn]

Padres acquired Luke Voit from the Yankees for Justin Lange. 

[Des-pool]

On 3/17/2022 at 4:49 PM, jidady said:

Sorry, I am definitely wrong about #1.

As for the start of #3, you know what that argument was. You just don't like it. Olson has a career OPS of .859. The last time Freddie had a season OPS worse than that was 2015. And Olson is only one year removed from facing *TONS* of questions about his swing.

I happen to quite like how he handled it. There was an article last year wherein he said failure teaches more than anything else. That's a mature piece of wisdom.

To a larger point nobody has said it was a bad bet. In fact, that's the whole point. It's a gamble, as you acknowledge. Freddie was the safe play. Atlanta's had some gambles pay off, but we've also had BJ Upton, Nate McClouth, and Dan Uggla, among others.

Eight years is an eternity, and we just gave a contract to someone who had a washout season only 18 months ago. If he starts striking out 36% of the time again, we're toast.

We can write it off as a pandemic year if you like, but it still counts. There's what I'd estimate as a 30 percent chance we really live to regret this one. The stadium change really should help him a lot, but he has to make consistent contact first.

As for the last thing, Liberty absolutely DID make this decision. That's the whole point. They had literally YEARS to work out an agreement with Freeman. They didn't. Were there extenuating circumstances? Of course. But it's also the latest example of the problems of a corporation running a baseball team as an asset rather than as an attempt to win.

People are casually describing this move as a masterstroke. In reality, it's a disloyal, economically motivated move. But it could still pay off in spades. Our karma isn't good on this one, though.

You need to go check the other thread and what Chipper said. This is entirely on Freddie and his agent. They tried to play chicken with the wrong organization. We have good, viable offers on the table. They wanted more. It backfired on them. Stop saying it’s LM’s or AA’s fault. The offers were there. This is on Freddie, andnit sounds like if he had it all to do over, he would have chosen the Braves offer. 

[ATLBrave]

 

[ATLBrave]

Phillies will scores some runs, but ******** if that isn’t one of the worst defensive teams ever. 

[Unknøwn]

Not enough pitching either. Lot of 8-6 type of games coming for Philly. 

[Unknøwn]

Phillies gave Castellanos $100M! He gets $20M a year for 5 years. I wanted him but sheesh 

[Malachore]

Correa to Twins 3/105 that includes opt out years.

Interesting...

[Unknøwn]

6 hours ago, Malachore said:

Correa to Twins 3/105 that includes opt out years.

Interesting...

He has no trade protection. Thought is the Twins take a shot but if it goes south they flip him for prospects. Boras also didn't want him to sign long-term cause he was hired late. Correa's previous agent gets the biggest share but Boras gets it all on the next deal.