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2021 Playoffs Round 2 - Hawks#5 vs Sixers#1


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12 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

I agree with you on that and have even said I thought we would be a potential finals favorite had we had Hunter and Reddish fully healthy compared to other teams.  I am not all doom and gloom, but I do think we need to make a few moves this offseason. The biggest of which for me is to trade for Myles Turner. Capela and Collins has been clunky and Collins has clearly had to take a step back. Collins has the ability to stretch the floor, but we all know he works best near the paint. Having Capela means he cannot really do that without congesting the paint. Capela needs to be in the paint to be effective. 

Myles Turner on the other hand can stretch the floor himself. With Turner, Collins can share paint and perimeter duties. Myles Turner is also an elite rim protector and consistently in DPOY conversations. Has led the league in blocking multiple years. Rebounding is his weakness, but I think we would be fine because Collins can go back to being a 10+ rebounder and Turner has had to play with his own Capela(Sabonis). 

I'm high on Turner too, but I have 2 counterpoints for this -

1.) The haul it would take would likely be Capela, another player (either Huerter or Reddish imo) and a pick. Turner has been in trade conversations for years now, and Indiana has turned down a lot of offers. I'm not sure what makes that deal so special compared to what they've been hearing for a while.

And that is assuming that Schlenk even wants Turner or that this convo is in any way realistic. Schlenk targeted Capela specifically, so clearly he's a guy that he's high on.  Clint also brought a lot to the team in turns of leadership and veteran playoff presence. I'm not sure what would implore the Hawks to move on from him when John Collins has turned into a knockdown jumpshooter.

 

2.) Let's assume that this trade does happen. Looking at what Turner and Capela bring, I think you're under-rating what Clint brings on offense and how he fits in this system.

First, let's talk rebounding. Now, Turner is playing alongside an elite rebounder in Sabonis, so it's tough to gauge his ability there. But his TRB% has been consistently around 11-13% his whole career, even when Sabonis was not there. Capela's has been around 18-20%. John Collins has also had higher TRB% numbers than Turner, but not to the level of what Clint has done. It's clear that we're going to lose a rebounding edge with this trade.

I think that's a big deal on offense. because Clint led the league in rebounding and had by far the most offensive rebounds in the league. That's a lot of possessions and putbacks we're going to lose out on with inferior rebounders.

Yes, Turner is a threat from the outside and would provide more spacing. But how much of a threat is he? He's only shot 33% and 34% in the past two years, and most of that is on wide open shots. JC has shot 39% and 40%. I'm not so sure that when game planning, that teams are going to be all too respectful of that jumper regardless. He could make them pay, yes. But at 33%, he could also not. And like I said, we're already losing out on extra possessions and and putback points.

Now to my biggest gripe with Turner on offense vs. Capela: pick and rolls.

Trae Young is the best P/R ball handler in the league. We're a heavy pick and roll team. Trae and Clint have clearly established a connection and become very deadly and efficient with the floater vs. lob conundrum killing teams all year. 

Myles Turner just isn't as a good of a roll man. Can he be effective? Yes. But not as effective. You could argue that Turner would get more pick and pops, but if we're going to run a pick and pop, why not just do so with a trusted shooter in Collins rather than an average one like Turner?

Also, back to rebounding, even if Capela doesn't get the lob, and Trae misses the floater, he's such a fast roll man and a dominant rebounder that there's a pretty good chance he gets that rebound after sealing off the big. That's something that the we're going to lose in our pick and roll game.

And as far as defense goes, Turner is an elite shot blocker and is much more versatile on switching pick and rolls than Capela is. But Capela is still a top tier defensive center in his own right, and has longer arms to effect more shots that might not go down as blocks. And I hate to keep saying this, but rebounding is also apart of defense.

 

 

All in all, given what it would take to get him, I'm not sure that a Capela for Turner trade moves the needle enough to justify what we would give up. I think we lose more than we gain. 

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1 hour ago, Willy Mo said:

I know some people might not agree with this mentality, because we are winning one game away from the ECF, but I think this season is a success regardless of what happens tonight

 

The NBA is a rugged league. It's superstar driven and in a 7 game series, the better team wins almost every time.  Right now, Embiid is on another level, and his role players, people like Seth Curry, are showing up and driving them to victory.

Trae is a superstar on another level too. Is it frustrating to watch him go ballistic and have his role players **** the bed while Tyrese Maxey is putting up 13 points? Yes.

But we're without Hunter and Cam, and Bogi, supposedly, has been playing hurt. We're not seeing our full potential this year regardless.

And yet still, we are one game away from knocking off the one seed. No need to panic, blowup the roster, or jump to some wild conclusions.

 We get Hunter back next year and bring back JC? I think we'll be top 3 in the east after another year of Trae and everyone else getting better. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

 

You are correct, no need to panic and this season, like I said was unexpectedly fun. 

With that said, to put this in the bigger picture perspective, we are both poised for success as well as not getting back here ever again. We have seen it up close and personal just in this town alone where teams have a great season never to be heard from again. 

We were injured all year, like you said, but I would like to bring up that there are no guarantees that we will be healthier next year or the year after either. 

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59 minutes ago, GEORGIAfan said:

I agree with you on that and have even said I thought we would be a potential finals favorite had we had Hunter and Reddish fully healthy compared to other teams.  I am not all doom and gloom, but I do think we need to make a few moves this offseason. The biggest of which for me is to trade for Myles Turner. Capela and Collins has been clunky and Collins has clearly had to take a step back. Collins has the ability to stretch the floor, but we all know he works best near the paint. Having Capela means he cannot really do that without congesting the paint. Capela needs to be in the paint to be effective. 

Myles Turner on the other hand can stretch the floor himself. With Turner, Collins can share paint and perimeter duties. Myles Turner is also an elite rim protector and consistently in DPOY conversations. Has led the league in blocking multiple years. Rebounding is his weakness, but I think we would be fine because Collins can go back to being a 10+ rebounder and Turner has had to play with his own Capela(Sabonis). 

Interesting. 
 

 

I am not crazy with a big that struggles rebounding but the rest of that isn’t bad at all. 

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1 hour ago, notthatcool said:

I disagree with the "ahead of schedule" "house money" mentality.  

We can and should win this series.  We can win the next one.  

This team will not look the same next year, for better or worse.  Gotta go get it now.  Heard that stuff when the Braves "were a year ahead of schedule" and their play this year has been blah at best this year. 

Not intended to point the finger at any posters, I understand where you are coming from... But I will be pissed tonight if it's the last time I see this team play. 

I agree. Nothing is promised. Take it now. Who knows what will happen next year. We could lose Collins to free agency and Trae or Capela to injury.

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3 hours ago, Wjcorner said:

So what happens to Capela and his contract?

Would be traded. Capela's value hasn't dipped and if anything has increased since his time in Atlanta. I think we could still get a non lottery first for him. 

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3 hours ago, Willy Mo said:

I'm high on Turner too, but I have 2 counterpoints for this -

1.) The haul it would take would likely be Capela, another player (either Huerter or Reddish imo) and a pick. Turner has been in trade conversations for years now, and Indiana has turned down a lot of offers. I'm not sure what makes that deal so special compared to what they've been hearing for a while.

And that is assuming that Schlenk even wants Turner or that this convo is in any way realistic. Schlenk targeted Capela specifically, so clearly he's a guy that he's high on.  Clint also brought a lot to the team in turns of leadership and veteran playoff presence. I'm not sure what would implore the Hawks to move on from him when John Collins has turned into a knockdown jumpshooter.

 

2.) Let's assume that this trade does happen. Looking at what Turner and Capela bring, I think you're under-rating what Clint brings on offense and how he fits in this system.

First, let's talk rebounding. Now, Turner is playing alongside an elite rebounder in Sabonis, so it's tough to gauge his ability there. But his TRB% has been consistently around 11-13% his whole career, even when Sabonis was not there. Capela's has been around 18-20%. John Collins has also had higher TRB% numbers than Turner, but not to the level of what Clint has done. It's clear that we're going to lose a rebounding edge with this trade.

I think that's a big deal on offense. because Clint led the league in rebounding and had by far the most offensive rebounds in the league. That's a lot of possessions and putbacks we're going to lose out on with inferior rebounders.

Yes, Turner is a threat from the outside and would provide more spacing. But how much of a threat is he? He's only shot 33% and 34% in the past two years, and most of that is on wide open shots. JC has shot 39% and 40%. I'm not so sure that when game planning, that teams are going to be all too respectful of that jumper regardless. He could make them pay, yes. But at 33%, he could also not. And like I said, we're already losing out on extra possessions and and putback points.

Now to my biggest gripe with Turner on offense vs. Capela: pick and rolls.

Trae Young is the best P/R ball handler in the league. We're a heavy pick and roll team. Trae and Clint have clearly established a connection and become very deadly and efficient with the floater vs. lob conundrum killing teams all year. 

Myles Turner just isn't as a good of a roll man. Can he be effective? Yes. But not as effective. You could argue that Turner would get more pick and pops, but if we're going to run a pick and pop, why not just do so with a trusted shooter in Collins rather than an average one like Turner?

Also, back to rebounding, even if Capela doesn't get the lob, and Trae misses the floater, he's such a fast roll man and a dominant rebounder that there's a pretty good chance he gets that rebound after sealing off the big. That's something that the we're going to lose in our pick and roll game.

And as far as defense goes, Turner is an elite shot blocker and is much more versatile on switching pick and rolls than Capela is. But Capela is still a top tier defensive center in his own right, and has longer arms to effect more shots that might not go down as blocks. And I hate to keep saying this, but rebounding is also apart of defense.

 

 

All in all, given what it would take to get him, I'm not sure that a Capela for Turner trade moves the needle enough to justify what we would give up. I think we lose more than we gain. 

 

I don't really buy that it would take a haul.  Sabonis+Turner is still clunking and has cost another head coach their job.  Also the rumor last year was that they were willing to trade Turner+McDermott for a S&T with Gordon Hayward. Ainge got greedy and wanted Dipo+Turner. There is also speculation that they are going into a rebuild. 

I am going to push back on the idea that Schlenk specifically targeted Capela. That is revisionist history. I remember that year. After we found out Len was not a starting caliber Center, we were calling everyone. We had talks with the pistons about drummond, but balked when Drummond wanted 20+ mil per year. Steven Adams was another target. Report was that we were open. Capela only became an option because Houston wanted to go full time small ball. 

Collins shooting improvements are great, but that isn't what his bread and butter is. His numbers have taken a step back because he has had to transition. Having a versatile center would allow him to shine in and outside of the paint without worries of congesting the paid.  We offered Collins 22.5 million a year and will likely offer him more if we want to keep him. You really want to pay that much and not maximize that player?

Rebounding is great, but we cannot confuse individual rebounding with team rebounding. Yes, Capela is a better Individual rebounder than Turner, but so was Drummond and he went for a 2nd round pick after we rejected his offer. You cannot just look at the individual stat. Not only that, part of getting turner is that you trade the different between them in rebounding, but gain in rebounding with Collins.  

I think you are underrated Turner on pick and rolls. 

Let us also not forget that Nate was HC when Turner was drafted. Schlenk may like Capela, but we are no longer in the CLP era. If Nate feels like Turner is a better fit for his system, then Schlenk will concede. 

Capela has been playing on this team for basically 1 season. Trae built that chemistry in less than a year and can do it again. We aren't talking about Collins, who has been here multiple seasons. 

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1 hour ago, GEORGIAfan said:

Would be traded. Capela's value hasn't dipped and if anything has increased since his time in Atlanta. I think we could still get a non lottery first for him. 

I still would prefer capela to him. If we trading for a center, I would prefer someone more physical in the middle to hold their own with the big men in the league and be that inside enforcer. 

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1 hour ago, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

I still would prefer capela to him. If we trading for a center, I would prefer someone more physical in the middle to hold their own with the big men in the league and be that inside enforcer. 

Turner is actually one of the best in that regard. 

E4GynM5WQAILr6C?format=png&name=small

 

Edit: Article from 2 years ago, but highlights how elite he is at interior defense.

https://www.bball-index.com/his-time-is-now-myles-turner-is-a-legit-defensive-player-of-the-year-candidate/

There is a reason this guy has gotten DPOY votes and was 5th this year in All defense votes for Forwards. 

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1 hour ago, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

I still would prefer capela to him. If we trading for a center, I would prefer someone more physical in the middle to hold their own with the big men in the league and be that inside enforcer. 

Embiid? 😄

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2 hours ago, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

I still would prefer capela to him. If we trading for a center, I would prefer someone more physical in the middle to hold their own with the big men in the league and be that inside enforcer. 

I agree with Georgia fan. Turner may not be as physical, but he brings a more diverse skill set. He's a more physical version of Horford.

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Keys to a win: 

1. hit our motha ******* open shots. I swear we have not hit one open three this series. 
 

2. control the defensive boards. 6ers got way too many second chance and third, and maybe even fourth chance opportunities in game 6. Don’t let them outwork us. 
 

3. Play smart. Know when to go full speed and when to settle down. Played some careless basketball in the first half game 6 which allowed the 6ers to stick around. 

4. hit our **** free throws. We barely shot above 50% last game. That isn’t going to cut it even if they have Brick Simmons on their team. 

There’s more that we will have to do, but these are the ones we can control best. Do this and we get out of Philly with a W. The first one is especially frustrating considering the amount of decent to good shooters on this team.
 

Leave it all on the floor because if we don’t, then we’ll be going home for the offseason. 

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8 minutes ago, Atlantafan21 said:

Keys to a win: 

1. hit our motha ******* open shots. I swear we have not hit one open three this series. 
 

2. control the defensive boards. 6ers got way too many second chance and third, and maybe even fourth chance opportunities in game 6. Don’t let them outwork us. 
 

3. Play smart. Know when to go full speed and when to settle down. Played some careless basketball in the first half game 6 which allowed the 6ers to stick around. 

4. hit our **** free throws. We barely shot above 50% last game. That isn’t going to cut it even if they have Brick Simmons on their team. 

There’s more that we will have to do, but these are the ones we can control best. Do this and we get out of Philly with a W. The first one is especially frustrating considering the amount of decent to good shooters on this team.
 

Leave it all on the floor because if we don’t, then we’ll be going home for the offseason. 

 

Just as long as we don't witness another Atlanta sports meltdown, everything should be fine.

 

Win or lose.

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