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2021 Falcons Draft and analysis and what I would have done.


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Looks very much like a certain other posters real time draft. 

 

As pointed out,  there were a few guys that went undrafted that you selected... which to me makes this a fail. 

 

There are reasons that only a handful of people make the decisions for NFL franchises. 

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18 minutes ago, coryb78 said:

Fair point and it does change the accuracy.  I tried to be as fair as I could with respect to where the players went and where the players were on my board.  Every player I drafted was on the board at that point.

Good draft but Dude I wouldn’t beat my chest about a POST DRAFT. Hard to earn respect after the fact unless you mocked this draft specifically. I doubt it nor did I see it. Those F bombs you handed out could very well come back and blow off your toe nails. 

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3 minutes ago, Atl Falcon said:

Good draft but Dude I wouldn’t beat my chest about a POST DRAFT. Hard to earn respect after the fact unless you mocked this draft specifically. I doubt it nor did I see it. Those F bombs you handed out could very well come back and blow off your toe nails. 

Yep. Had this been a thread about a previous mock draft and how it compared, fine, but to say, well I would have done so and so, is to call out the FO's picks as wrong before they're even given a chance. Who gives a **** who you would have picked? You have no clue what the FO saw nor anything about this team or about any players which led them to make their picks. You had plenty of time during and around the draft to whine about how they didn't pick who you wanted.

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2 hours ago, coryb78 said:

I enjoy analyzing the draft and seeing what I would have done.  I started doing this about 10 years ago.  I'm not saying I'm right and I'm not saying that I know anything this is just my analysis and something fun that I enjoy doing.  Feel free to leave feedback but please keep the anger and attacks out of this. 

 

I find that often I don't see the need to make any trades because players that I value are usually there so having said that:

 

4. Pitts - TE

I liked Sewell here as well but that would require too much shuffling so I'll take the 12 personnel and hopefully it will disguise what we are doing.  12 personnel is probably my favorite formation.

35. Azeez Ojulari - DE

68. Joseph Ossai - DE

108 Kenneth Gainwell - RB

148. Dazz Newsome - WR

182. Dylan Moses - LB

183. Kylin Hill - RB

187. Frank Darby - WR

219. Marvin Wilson - DT

My strategy is BPA but with consideration for repetitiveness.

 

As for what the Falcons did I gave each draft pick a grade and the draft an overall grade.

4) Kyle Pitts is an A+.  He was the best player on the board period.  In a few years we may have a problem with signability because he is not going to want to be signed as a TE but instead as a WR but we will cross that bridge when we get there.

40) Richie Grant  is a B.   Love this pick and he could be solid for us for the next 8 years.

68) Mayfield A+ and this grade is because he was the highest player left on the board but not on my personal board.  If he were to kick inside and be all that he can be he may be a great pick but that's a big, "IF" in my opinion.

108) Darren Hall is an F.  And here is where the wheels fall off.  I can see upside for Hall but the contention is that you could have gotten him later in the draft which will be a recurring theme from here on out.   From Day 3 on it wasn't as much fun.  The first 2 days I could clearly see a BPA strategy in play but from day 3 on I'm not sure what the strategy was.  Maybe they were dependent on RAS.

114) Drew Dalman is an F.  Same as with Hall I felt that they could have gotten him later.  Now I will say this about Dalman,  "I still like the pick of the player but not at this stage in the draft."

148) Ta'Quan Graham is an F.  I see this going the way of DeAdrin Senat.  Another wasted pick that we probably forget about by the following season.

182) Adetokunbo Ogundegi is an A+.  Great pick here as far as value.  He could be something and he saves the day as far any pick after day 2.

183) Avery Williams is an F.  Bad value for the pick here. Could have gotten him later.  If he makes the any difference it will most likely be as a punt returner and we seem to always take a punt returner late in every draft.

187) Frank Darby is an A+.  I like this pick alot.  He was one of my late round sleepers and I was happy to see the Falcons take a player that I can atleast see some upside in. 

 

Overall I give this draft a grade of B and think it is one of our top 3 in the last 15 years which is a solid building block for a first year regime.  In my opinion there were 4 bad picks (Hall, Dalman, Graham and Williams) and I base this mostly on value at that point in the draft except for Graham which I don't think we will ever see be productive.  Then there were 4 good picks (Pitts, Grant, Ogundeji and Darby) who I think can all be productive atleast.  Then there was Mayfield who made sense as a pick but I personally think he could be a miss who we stick with too long as a project.  I like the player strictly from a value standpoint but I personally would have left him on the board.

 

 

Well call me skeptical that is actually who you picked before the draft. Everyone pretty much was focused on Pitts at 4.

What makes me skeptical, is Darby. I can't really believe you picked Darby at 187 before the draft actually took place.

 

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I'll Play...RE-DRAFT 2021

I normally make this thread every year, because TD sucked so bad at it!

4.   BPA RT- Penei Sewell- Solid RT until LT Matthews retires, RT McGary is a risk!

40. BPA CB Kelvin Joseph- Solid Player would step right in and start- Day 1 opposite A.J.

68. BPA- Edge/LB- Joseph Ossai- Motor doesn't Stop- can play anywhere on D

108-BPA- DT Tyler Shelvin- 350lb- BIG Grady Jr, we need a BIG center Basher bad!

114- BPA RB Rhamondre Stevenson- Future RB 1

148- S- Caden Sterns-4.4 Safety, needs work could be a GEM though

182-LG- Trey Smith- Without medical, he would've went way higher!

183-UGA C Trey Hill-Big Center, can move +++, U have to go around him that's for sure!

187- P Pressley Harvin III- Georgia Tech Punter-Harvin won the Ray Guy Award-48 yard average- Best College Punter

I would always save the last pick for the Best Local Georgia Boy!

 

While Doing this I saw the Bengals had a **** of a draft,

I almost picked their guys in every spot!

 

 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, coryb78 said:

I enjoy analyzing the draft and seeing what I would have done.  I started doing this about 10 years ago.  I'm not saying I'm right and I'm not saying that I know anything this is just my analysis and something fun that I enjoy doing.  Feel free to leave feedback but please keep the anger and attacks out of this. 

 

I find that often I don't see the need to make any trades because players that I value are usually there so having said that:

 

4. Pitts - TE

I liked Sewell here as well but that would require too much shuffling so I'll take the 12 personnel and hopefully it will disguise what we are doing.  12 personnel is probably my favorite formation.

35. Azeez Ojulari - DE

68. Joseph Ossai - DE

108 Kenneth Gainwell - RB

148. Dazz Newsome - WR

182. Dylan Moses - LB

183. Kylin Hill - RB

187. Frank Darby - WR

219. Marvin Wilson - DT

I'm going to do this in five years. Mine will be better than yours.

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11 hours ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

So let me get this straight...

We get F’s for reaches/wastes (per you) but yet you drafted 2 guys that went undrafted and another that went a few picks before the end of the draft. Then to sweeten your Draft, Gainwell and Newsome are taken 2 rounds before they went IRL.

Makes sense. A+ logic.

Logical assessment

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You made mention of the wheels coming off regarding the post r3 picks. To be honest here, that's where your piece falls apart.

I defy anyone to tell me that, after 100 picks are off the board, that they can say with any certainty that one guy is BPA over another. BPA works fine at the top of the draft, but it becomes wildly subjective after the first 15-20 guys come off the board.

That's why BPA means the BPA on a particular team's board, not BPA in general. Our BPA and Dallas' BPA could be entirely different guys.

I appreciate that we all have our opinions on who we would pick, and who we 'think' would be there later, but in reality, projected draft position will always be an unknowable thing. That same player we took as a 'reach' in your opinion (or mine), might've been the guy that the team picking right after us would've taken. 

 

 

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