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Here’s why we won’t trade Julio


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16 hours ago, EpicBird said:

Watch Fontenot’s interview on the team’s website - he clearly says the team is over the cap before signing any draft picks and still has hard decisions to make. I’ll take his word over yours. 
 

His dead cap hit is lower than his cap hit post June 1, and because of the structure (salary without unabsorbed bonus) would be $15 descending to $11 million - definitely tradable for a team with cap room for a receiver of his caliber. Extending him balloons his cap hit down the road - if Ryan, Deion, and Matthew’s hadn’t been extended I’d be inclined to agree with you. There’s a reason why Julio wasn’t extended.

Better to aim before you shoot. 
 

We weren’t over the cap before signing the draft class. You’re interpreting something wrong.

The numbers are widely available. The 3 main sites, OTC, Spotrac, and NFLPA, even after McCarron’s numbers came in, showed us under the cap. And with the draft class, we are now $5.77m OVER.

I never said we were under, anyway. I very clearly said “over”.

But $5.77m over is nothing. For Christ sake we could cut Gono and Oliver and free up $5.7m.

What would be the smarter move? Trade Julio or cut a backup OT and CB?  How dumb would you have to be to say “trade Julio”??

My criticism of your post was that you said it’s a “fact” we are in “big time cap trouble”, and that’s just not close to true.

Also, having a “tradable contract” doesn’t mean “favorable for some other team with cap space” when it’s astoundingly “unfavorable” to us other than a short term cap reduction after lowering our talent pool immensely AND causing us to effectively still pay that talent millions to play on another team.

Paying an elite player to play elsewhere instead of cutting 2 mediocre backups to solve the same problem is just asinine buffoonery of the highest degree.

If you don’t understand how the cap works, which is obvious, then stop making posts calling nonsense “fact”.

Just sayin.

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47 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Ok I have to set you straight here as you are skewing my record - and also you are speaking in history like you already know the outcomes of rookie careers.

Number #1) I never said the Falcons would  take a QB - I said they should take one - and still believe they should have taken Fields - but also always said I loved Pitts - and I do.

Number #2) I don’t suffer from Ryan/Julio fatigue.   I just try and look at my team realistically and I see a team whose stars are aging.   Father Time is undefeated.  Both Ryan and Julio have productive years left - Julio is probably closer to a huge dropoff though.   Fontenot knows this....Deep down you know it, too.  

I don’t see it as me suffering from “Matt/Julio fatigue” - I see your POV as hanging on to players that are more part of the past than the future of this team - more “Matt/Julio Nostalgia” that you have fallen victim.  Part of being a GM - especially a new GM like Fontenot - is to take the mile high look down view of the team.

You have NO ANSWER why Julio’s name is being bandied about in the media on a daily basis now.   If Fontenot wasn’t trading Julio- he would have cut this stuff out by now - deep down, you know I am right.   This is out there because Fontenot wants it out there - the only way he’s not trading him is if the offers are so low and embarrassing that he cannot pull the trigger - and even then he still might do it.  You know Julio probably doesn’t like his name out there as it sends a message that the organization wants to be rid of him.  That won’t help the locker room either at a time the new head coach and staff are trying to build a new culture.

You need to think on this some more my friend.

 

I saw the multiple threads you made about taking a QB this past offseason....just as I’ve seen the multiple threads you’ve made about Julio. Everyone has seen them, so there’s no “setting me straight”. You’ve taken low possibilities and ran amuck with them, while I’ve approached the offseason with probabilities. Big difference.
 

My thinking is crystal clear, I think yours all offseason has been the one cloudy, my brother. The difference being (again) is, I know I don’t know. Could it happen? Sure, but it was never 50/50 on us taking a QB at 4, just as it’s not 70/30 Julio gets traded away. Possible yes, probable no.

 Obviously, TF’s POV was waaay more logical on the QB thingy than you guys were projecting, as it will be on Julio. My assumption is it will take a lot to pry him away, which makes little sense to me on both ends of that spectrum. Next year maybe, this year unlikely.

Like I alluded to earlier, ya’ll are acting like a bunch of gossipy old women. 🤓

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, 8ball N M.J.C. said:

A trade would open up 15M. 7 would go towards the rookies and you could sign one of the players I mentioned to 1 yr-3M deal

The rookies only cost $6.25m.

You think we need $15.7m to sign the rookies and a $3m vet.

How is anyone supposed to take some of you folks serious on your opinions when you don’t even know how the cap works?

Edited by Beef
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1 hour ago, 8ball N M.J.C. said:

A trade would open up 15M. 7 would go towards the rookies and you could sign one of the players I mentioned to 1 yr-3M deal

 

5 minutes ago, Beef said:

The rookies only cost $6.25m.

You think we need $15.7m to sign the rookies and a $3m vet.

How is anyone supposed to take some of you folks serious on your opinions when you don’t even know how the cap works?


Reading comprehension I did not say we need 15.7M to sign the rookies and one vet for 3M. Don’t know where you pulled 15.7 at? It’s a space between 15 and 7 with an M behind the 15. 
 

15M will what we would have if Julio is traded. Maybe we can’t take folks who can’t read serious.

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14 minutes ago, Vandy said:

I saw the multiple threads you made about taking a QB this past offseason....just as I’ve seen the multiple threads you’ve made about Julio. Everyone has seen them, so there’s no “setting me straight”. You’ve taken low possibilities and ran amuck with them, while I’ve approached the offseason with probabilities. Big difference.
 

My thinking is crystal clear, I think yours all offseason has been the one cloudy, my brother. The difference being (again) is, I know I don’t know. Could it happen? Sure, but it was never 50/50 on us taking a QB at 4, just as it’s not 70/30 Julio gets traded away. Possible yes, probable no.

 Obviously, TF’s POV was waaay more logical on the QB thingy than you guys were projecting, as it will be on Julio. My assumption is it will take a lot to pry him away, which makes little sense to me on both ends of that spectrum. 

Like I alluded to earlier, ya’ll are acting like a bunch of gossipy old women. 🤓

^^This.

Logic is the key here.  Same as it was with the 4th pick.

People are saying the reason(s) to trade Julio is the cap situation and after picking Pitts we don’t need him and let’s get something for him while he has some value before his “apparent and certain” soon to be decline.

1. There are multiple possible EASY solutions for the cap issue that don’t involve reducing our receiver talent and paying one of the best WR’s in the league to play on another team. In what universe would it be more logical and smarter to trade away a starting superstar before cutting a couple backups to solve the same problem?

2. No freaking way is Pitts immediately going to replace Julio’s production 1:1, and yet our new FO has made it clear we are not in a rebuild, but win-now mentality. How can we expect to be better if we consciously reduce our talent and projected output?

3. Julio is not in or close to a noticeable decline. Dude is a freak of nature who will play for another 6-7 years at a high level.  He had a 75% catch rate and 11.1 yards per target last season (both his best ever) and was on pace for 1400 yards and 6 TD’s before injury. Sorry but top-3 in the league production doesn’t scream “imminent decline” to anyone with half a brain.

It just makes no sense to trade him. The cap is going up tremendously after this year and we are not at all in a situation where he must be traded to fix/solve/help/improve ANYTHING. Losing Julio will ONLY make us worse.

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20 minutes ago, 8ball N M.J.C. said:

 


Reading comprehension I did not say we need 15.7M to sign the rookies and one vet for 3M. Don’t know where you pulled 15.7 at? It’s a space between 15 and 7 with an M behind the 15. 
 

15M will what we would have if Julio is traded. Maybe we can’t take folks who can’t read serious.

Thought I saw $15.7M. My bad.

But either way it’s not $7M for the rookies, and why do we need to free up $15M for your proposal?

We can restructure Grady and free up $8m and cut Keith Smith (which is likely to happen anyway) and also have enough to sign the draft class and pay an aging Justin Houston $3m.

What is the obsession with losing Julio?  How would this possibly make us better?

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10 minutes ago, Beef said:

^^This.

Logic is the key here.  Same as it was with the 4th pick.

People are saying the reason(s) to trade Julio is the cap situation and after picking Pitts we don’t need him and let’s get something for him while he has some value before his “apparent and certain” soon to be decline.

1. There are multiple possible EASY solutions for the cap issue that don’t involve reducing our receiver talent and paying one of the best WR’s in the league to play on another team. In what universe would it be more logical and smarter to trade away a starting superstar before cutting a couple backups to solve the same problem?

2. No freaking way is Pitts immediately going to replace Julio’s production 1:1, and yet our new FO has made it clear we are not in a rebuild, but win-now mentality. How can we expect to be better if we consciously reduce our talent and projected output?

3. Julio is not in or close to a noticeable decline. Dude is a freak of nature who will play for another 6-7 years at a high level.  He had a 75% catch rate and 11.1 yards per target last season (both his best ever) and was on pace for 1400 yards and 6 TD’s before injury. Sorry but top-3 in the league production doesn’t scream “imminent decline” to anyone with half a brain.

It just makes no sense to trade him. The cap is going up tremendously after this year and we are not at all in a situation where he must be traded to fix/solve/help/improve ANYTHING. Losing Julio will ONLY make us worse.

Good post. His play showed no decline at all last season. 27 year old George Kittle missed 8 games last season, is he “in decline”?

I don’t know about the “6-7 years at a high level” part, but the rest of your post I’m with you 100%. Only way I see us trading him is if someone offers fair value (a defensive stud or a bunch of high draft picks).  I just don’t see anyone giving up that much for a guy coming off an injury plagued year. And as good as Julio is, I don’t see us giving him away.

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4 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Good post. His play showed no decline at all last season. 27 year old George Kittle missed 8 games last season, is he “in decline”?

I don’t know about the “6-7 years at a high level” part, but the rest of your post I’m with you 100%. Only way I see us trading him is if someone offers fair value (a defensive stud or a bunch of high draft picks).  I just don’t see anyone giving up that much for a guy coming off an injury plagued year. And as good as Julio is, I don’t see us giving him away.

Yeah 6-7 might be stretching it a bit I guess. But at least 5. If Fitzgerald can put up 10 yards per reception at 36 then I know Julio certainly can too.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Beef said:

Thought I saw $15.7M. My bad.

But either way it’s not $7M for the rookies, and why do we need to free up $15M for your proposal?

We can restructure Grady and free up $8m and cut Keith Smith (which is likely to happen anyway) and also have enough to sign the draft class and pay an aging Justin Houston $3m.

What is the obsession with losing Julio?  How would this possibly make us better?

Like I said the 15M is what we would would free up if we trade up. 
 

The topic is why we won’t we trade Julio so I’m telling the OP why and how it is possible. 
 

and if we restructure Jarrett contract to free up 8M then his salary goes from 23.8 to 31.8 next year. No knock on Jarrett but Do you really think Fontenot is going to pay a DT 31.8 for one year?

Edited by 8ball N M.J.C.
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1 hour ago, Vandy said:

I saw the multiple threads you made about taking a QB this past offseason....just as I’ve seen the multiple threads you’ve made about Julio. Everyone has seen them, so there’s no “setting me straight”. You’ve taken low possibilities and ran amuck with them, while I’ve approached the offseason with probabilities. Big difference.
 

My thinking is crystal clear, I think yours all offseason has been the one cloudy, my brother. The difference being (again) is, I know I don’t know. Could it happen? Sure, but it was never 50/50 on us taking a QB at 4, just as it’s not 70/30 Julio gets traded away. Possible yes, probable no.

 Obviously, TF’s POV was waaay more logical on the QB thingy than you guys were projecting, as it will be on Julio. My assumption is it will take a lot to pry him away, which makes little sense to me on both ends of that spectrum. Next year maybe, this year unlikely.

Like I alluded to earlier, ya’ll are acting like a bunch of gossipy old women. 🤓

🤦‍♂️

Pastor#1  takes a job with a new church and decides the piano needs to be moved from the right side of the stage to the left.  Moves it his second week there.  The church fires him and moves the piano back to the right side of the stage where it had been for 30 years.

Pastor#2 hired and been there two years.  Pastor#1 back in town and decided to go visit the church that fired him two years earlier -  and sits in the back row.   First thing Pastor#1 noticed is the piano is on the left side of the stage. “How can this be?” - he thinks to himself.

After the sermon was over and the crowd thins out , the pastors greet each other

Pastor#1(to #2): “How did you do it? How did you get the piano to the left side?”

Pastor#2(to#1):  “I moved it one foot each week to the left.”

Fontenot is Pastor#2

Fans are the congregation

Julio is the piano 🎹 

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On 5/14/2021 at 6:03 AM, RYNE said:

The fact that people still don’t believe trading Julio is a strong possibility is wild. Some of you guys need a real wake up call. 

To Vandy's point, this post sounds a lot like "get used to a qb at 4..."

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7 minutes ago, 8ball N M.J.C. said:

Like I said the 15M is what we would would free up if we trade up. 
 

The topic is why we won’t we trade Julio so I’m telling the OP why and how it is possible. 
 

and if we restructure Jarrett contract to free up 8M then his salary goes from 23.8 to 31.8 next year. No knock on Jarrett but Do you really think Fontenot is going to pay a DT 31.8 for one year?

The new cap limit would be able to absorb that, so why is it really an issue?

That said, it would almost certainly be an extension, actually, rather than a restructure.  Very likely would lock him up through 2024, and then spread any cap reduction this year across 4 years.

No way they want to let Grady go after next year. I can’t imagine they aren’t in discussions about an extension after June 1.

They could also easily do a restructure/extension with Julio and free up $8-9m, too.

Or again, simply cut a few backups that aren’t worth their contracts.

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On 5/13/2021 at 7:51 PM, Dirtier Bird said:

I still think we might trade Julio. I don’t think anyone has ever accused him of digressing. He always stays on topic. 

regressing, disgressing is not a word

On 5/13/2021 at 9:55 PM, B3TD said:

Jerry Rice and Larry Fitzgerald were not freak athletes at all; TO was, and Randy had that freak speed, but they all had totally different styles and talents. It's silly to compare Julio to them, and it's silly to say that "great conditioning" and a pedigree is going to undo the fact that he's been pretty banged up his whole career.

Maybe Julio is just fine, but I can point to Calvin Johnson, probably the closest Julio comparison right off as an example that not everyone can hold up to a long career in the NFL. You just don't really know.

I'm with you, if it can't help the defense now, then I'm not interested in moving Julio, but let's not go overboard like this.  

calvin had injury problems but it was the fact that he was playing hurt for a team that never had any real direction which he stated lead him to retire.  The fact that he was hurting for a team being blown up wasnt worth it

On 5/14/2021 at 4:07 AM, EastATL said:

Calvin Johnson retired because he was on the lions. He could have still played. He pretty much said doing the rehab wasn't worth it if he was on a continuous losing team. Julio will be on the team, he needs to come to practice though and act like he's part of the team. Previous coaching staffs have him special privaliges.

did julio not attend and act like he was part of the team at some point? what special privileges? not attending Voluntary workouts?

On 5/14/2021 at 4:44 AM, thanat0s said:

I’m sorry, but that always the excuse with him. 
 

To complete this thought, this excuse tries to insinuate that none of those other receivers was regularly double teamed. 

So did someone else step up and get all those TDs he was supposed to get?  Or has the team been pretty evenly distributed for the most part? IDK what is necessary for acceptable TD catches for most people but if someone is throwing 25-30 TDs a year, 6-9 TD catches for receivers should be about as expected when you are throwing them to 4 or 5 different catchers.  

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11 minutes ago, Beef said:

The new cap limit would be able to absorb that, so why is it really an issue?

That said, it would almost certainly be an extension, actually, rather than a restructure.  Very likely would lock him up through 2024, and then spread any cap reduction this year across 4 years.

No way they want to let Grady go after next year. I can’t imagine they aren’t in discussions about an extension after June 1.

They could also easily do a restructure/extension with Julio and free up $8-9m, too.

Or again, simply cut a few backups that aren’t worth their contracts.

I’m in agreance that a Jarrett extension is more likely than a restructure. Stated that in one of my previous post. 
 

And yes they could easily restructure Julio contract and shut down all trade talks for Julio but they haven’t. 

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2 hours ago, g-dawg said:

🤦‍♂️

Pastor#1  takes a job with a new church and decides the piano needs to be moved from the right side of the stage to the left.  Moves it his second week there.  The church fires him and moves the piano back to the right side of the stage where it had been for 30 years.

Pastor#2 hired and been there two years.  Pastor#1 back in town and decided to go visit the church that fired him two years earlier -  and sits in the back row.   First thing Pastor#1 noticed is the piano is on the left side of the stage. “How can this be?” - he thinks to himself.

After the sermon was over and the crowd thins out , the pastors greet each other

Pastor#1(to #2): “How did you do it? How did you get the piano to the left side?”

Pastor#2(to#1):  “I moved it one foot each week to the left.”

Fontenot is Pastor#2

Fans are the congregation

Julio is the piano 🎹 

I always knew you had some evangelism in you G. 🤪

Julio is my Boaz (2:45 minute mark). All ya’lls ‘Wild-Az’ scenarios are just his ‘dumb-az’ relatives I choose to stay away from. 😈

Got nothing but love for you brother. Enjoy this beautiful weekend!

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20 minutes ago, Vandy said:

I always knew you had some evangelism in you G. 🤪

😈 Got nothing but love for you brother. Enjoy this beautiful weekend!

Fontenot is letting you go through the 7 stages of grief between April 26-July 30th.

Right now you are in Stage#1: Denial.

#GodBless

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4 hours ago, Vandy said:

You really believe Font is going to tell the world his plans in an interview? Really?

And FYI....the cap will go up substantially in 2022. 
 

Nobody out there in talking head works and certainly not in here in navel-gazer works has a clue what falcons are going to do with Julio. Just like none of ya’ll had a clue on falcons supposedly taking a QB at 4. 

Ya’ll just keep shooting yourselves in the foot. 

You’re reading something into what I wrote - that I didn’t write. TF stated matter of factly after the draft that the Falcons were over the cap and more cap related decisions with personnel had to be made. I have no idea what those are, and neither does anyone else outside of Flowery Branch. 
 

The cap will be going up substantially in 2023 because of new TV money, not 2022. Next year will be higher because normal revenue streams will be back but the big increase comes in 2023 and after. 
 

I have no idea what they’re going to do with Julio. My heart says he stays, my head says the team would trade him for the price they want. Hence the word “speculation”. 

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5 hours ago, federicofalcon2 said:

 

So did someone else step up and get all those TDs he was supposed to get?  Or has the team been pretty evenly distributed for the most part? IDK what is necessary for acceptable TD catches for most people but if someone is throwing 25-30 TDs a year, 6-9 TD catches for receivers should be about as expected when you are throwing them to 4 or 5 different catchers.  

You’re making conclusions that are based on a static number of TDs. A bigger question is, how many red zone plays has Julio been the primary option, and on how many of those plays could he not get himself open in tight spaces, leaving Matt to find another option?

Look at the TDs Rice, Moss and Owens, for instance, put up each year during the most productive parts of their careers. Even as often as CJ was beat up, his TD production was easily in another class than Julio. 

Im not saying he’s a bad WR. He’s one of the best in this era. He’ll probably be a HOFer. It doesn’t change the fact that he’s not a reliable TD producer, and really never has been. 

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20 hours ago, Beef said:

Thought I saw $15.7M. My bad.

But either way it’s not $7M for the rookies, and why do we need to free up $15M for your proposal?

We can restructure Grady and free up $8m and cut Keith Smith (which is likely to happen anyway) and also have enough to sign the draft class and pay an aging Justin Houston $3m.

What is the obsession with losing Julio?  How would this possibly make us better?

Totally agree.  I think hatred for his cap number is blinding many to the fact no one on our roster replaces him.  Frank Darby? Please.  He has to make the team first.

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On 5/15/2021 at 3:40 PM, thanat0s said:

You’re making conclusions that are based on a static number of TDs. A bigger question is, how many red zone plays has Julio been the primary option, and on how many of those plays could he not get himself open in tight spaces, leaving Matt to find another option?

Look at the TDs Rice, Moss and Owens, for instance, put up each year during the most productive parts of their careers. Even as often as CJ was beat up, his TD production was easily in another class than Julio. 

Im not saying he’s a bad WR. He’s one of the best in this era. He’ll probably be a HOFer. It doesn’t change the fact that he’s not a reliable TD producer, and really never has been. 

Ok then whats the answer to YOUR question then?  How many plays was Julio the primary option and couldnt get open? What other factors are in play? Was he doubled? Was Ryan pressured away from him? Did Ryan read someone else open instead? 

You just said Im making conclusions about a static number of TDs, but then relate Calvin Johnson to Julio Jones TD production.  SMH

 

Look, it would be different if Julio constantly dropped passes or he showed he just wasnt a good player.  But even when he gets the amount of targets, it doesnt mean it will always warrant him TDs.  He has lead this team is targets and yards for quite some time, but when you compare Jones to Calvin, it isnt the same because the DET offense LIVED off CJ.  He had double digit TDs in 4 of his 9 years and when you look at his supporting cast, the other players didnt pull their weight. Hence why DET has been a losing team for a long time.

In Johnson's career he had another teammate get 6 or more TD catches a TOTAL of 5 times I believe, and other than that he was the focal point.

In Jones' career, there have been 6 other players totaling 12 occasions where someone other than Julio caught more than 6 TDS.

So my point of where did the other TDs go when Julio didn't catch them is to these other players to provide balance throughout the team.

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6 minutes ago, federicofalcon2 said:

Ok then whats the answer to YOUR question then?  How many plays was Julio the primary option and couldnt get open? What other factors are in play? Was he doubled? Was Ryan pressured away from him? Did Ryan read someone else open instead? 

You just said Im making conclusions about a static number of TDs, but then relate Calvin Johnson to Julio Jones TD production.  SMH

 

Look, it would be different if Julio constantly dropped passes or he showed he just wasnt a good player.  But even when he gets the amount of targets, it doesnt mean it will always warrant him TDs.  He has lead this team is targets and yards for quite some time, but when you compare Jones to Calvin, it isnt the same because the DET offense LIVED off CJ.  He had double digit TDs in 4 of his 9 years and when you look at his supporting cast, the other players didnt pull their weight. Hence why DET has been a losing team for a long time.

In Johnson's career he had another teammate get 6 or more TD catches a TOTAL of 5 times I believe, and other than that he was the focal point.

In Jones' career, there have been 6 other players totaling 12 occasions where someone other than Julio caught more than 6 TDS.

So my point of where did the other TDs go when Julio didn't catch them is to these other players to provide balance throughout the team.

Rather than my rehashing what I've already said as it relates to why he doesn't score TDs, I'll just refer you back to my original post on the matter. It answers the question pretty plainly.

I can't discuss Julio in an objective way around here usually, because people get all up in their feelings about him. Here's one thing to consider: If Julio was a Saint all these years, doing the same thing as he has here, how many people on this board would be deriding any talk of him being in the same class as the Rice's and Moss's of the world? I guaran-****-tee you it'd be most of this board.

I'll  say it once more. He's a fine receiver. He's a likely HOFer. But he is not in the same class with Rice, Moss or Owens, to name a few. No amount of debate is going to change that.

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