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Here’s why we won’t trade Julio


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32 minutes ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

Who knows really?  I mean many people thought we'd draft a QB (I didn't) but many did.  Everyone loves Julio, but current age, injury history, and present cap situation, we'd be fools not to trade him if the right compensation came along.  This is from a guy who'd give his right pinky toe to have Julio win one with us, I've already pledged my left pinky toe to Ice if we could win the Lombardi.  Okay, I'm really am not big on pinky toes, but I am dead serious about this, let me use up what remaining life I have in my third leg and I'd cut that off to win it all...WFW willing to sacrifice for the team and fanbase y'all. :tiphat:

Well said...well, except that toe thing 😆

Too many feelings caught up in all things Julio. That's why I think it's great that an entirely new regime is here at this moment in time. I don't think the previous guys would've ever considered trading him, regardless of the compensation. Too many feelings.

These guys have no ties to anyone on this team. If they think they can be fine on offense without him (31 other teams do it every week), and they can find someone to give premium compensation, while  freeing up cap, I think they'll do that.

It just has to be great compensation, and I think that's ultimately why he stays to play out this year. At his age and with his history of being banged up, I doubt anyone is offering enough. 

 

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24 minutes ago, 4dabirds said:

I agree with the OP that Julio is a genetic freak, highly productive and very much in the same class as the other great receivers he mentioned. However, aside from Rice, Julio, Fitz, Moss, and Owens all share something in common; no ring. I love Julio as a Falcon; he’s been absolutely everything we could ever want, but retaining him and absorbing his cap hit may very well keep the Falcons from advancing in other areas. I can live with a Julio trade as long as this team can improve on the defensive side. Not to mention you have Ridley who will be seeking a long term deal soon. Some will say "keep Julio for one more season and then trade him", but his trade value will be significantly less. Now may very well be the time.

Perfectly put.

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What if Julio has told the Falcons he may not play anymore and contemplating retirement?  Just cause he is still productive doesnt mean he feels he HAS to come back.

What would be the cap hit if he did the Falcons a solid and retired after June 2nd?  Would that allow the Falcons to be able to defer the dead money into 2022?  Isnt that the strategy being utilized with Brees in New Orleans?

Maybe Julio hasnt decided yet and thats why everyone is mum on it.  If he decides to come back, just roll with the roster as planned, but if he decides to retire the possibility of pushing the dead money to 2022 has to be attractive to TF.

He IS getting older.

In the meantime, sure... we are listening to offers.

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10 minutes ago, RetroRoq said:

What if Julio has told the Falcons he may not play anymore and contemplating retirement?  Just cause he is still productive doesnt mean he feels he HAS to come back.

What would be the cap hit if he did the Falcons a solid and retired after June 2nd?  Would that allow the Falcons to be able to defer the dead money into 2022?  Isnt that the strategy being utilized with Brees in New Orleans?

Maybe Julio hasnt decided yet and thats why everyone is mum on it.  If he decides to come back, just roll with the roster as planned, but if he decides to retire the possibility of pushing the dead money to 2022 has to be attractive to TF.

He IS getting older.

In the meantime, sure... we are listening to offers.

If a guy retires, I think he is basically tearing up the remainder of his deal. I might be wrong on that, but as a for instance, I can't imagine the Colts kept paying Luck when he walked away out of the blue.

On that note, I was speculating the same about Matt late last season. He has a ton of reasons to take his health and go to broadcasting, and spending time with those boys as they grow up. I'm glad he didn't, but I wouldn't have been shocked.

As for Julio, after Luck quitting, Megatron before him,  and Barry Sanders long before him, nothing surprises me. 

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1 hour ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

Who knows really?  I mean many people thought we'd draft a QB (I didn't) but many did.  Everyone loves Julio, but current age, injury history, and present cap situation, we'd be fools not to trade him if the right compensation came along.  This is from a guy who'd give his right pinky toe to have Julio win one with us, I've already pledged my left pinky toe to Ice if we could win the Lombardi.  Okay, I'm really am not big on pinky toes, but I am dead serious about this, let me use up what remaining life I have in my third leg and I'd cut that off to win it all...WFW willing to sacrifice for the team and fanbase y'all. :tiphat:

 

8 hours ago, B3TD said:

Jerry Rice and Larry Fitzgerald were not freak athletes at all; TO was, and Randy had that freak speed, but they all had totally different styles and talents. It's silly to compare Julio to them, and it's silly to say that "great conditioning" and a pedigree is going to undo the fact that he's been pretty banged up his whole career.

Maybe Julio is just fine, but I can point to Calvin Johnson, probably the closest Julio comparison right off as an example that not everyone can hold up to a long career in the NFL. You just don't really know.

I'm with you, if it can't help the defense now, then I'm not interested in moving Julio, but let's not go overboard like this.  

 

10 hours ago, thanat0s said:

I get what you’re saying, but the fact that you don’t list touchdowns in your evidence is telling. For all his catches and yards, Julio isn’t on the same level as those other guys. He just works in a world with nonstop media saturation.

For the record, I don’t think they’ll trade him, even though I think it’d be the wise thing to do financially if the compensation is right. I expect he has one last ride with this team, just in case they can catch some 2016 style magic. 
 

Then, no matter what, he’s gone. 

My take on this is that it would be pretty foolish to trade Julio before the team has shown evidence they can't compete this season with him.  All indications are that the team is trying to win now, there is no compensation anyone will give up that will make the team better than they are with Julio.

See how the first half of the season goes, by that point we'll have a pretty good idea on where the team stands, if the year is looking like 2020, have a fire sale before the trade deadline.  Chances are that Julio's value will be higher then than it is now.  Trade him to the team trying to find the last piece to push them over the top and make them pay dearly for it.  Also, Julio won't be the only one getting traded in this scenario either.

There are many creative ways of creating cap space on an NFL team.  That isn't an excuse to trade julio in my opinion and if he is traded with that as an excuse, I'll have lost some trust in TF to be honest.  The outline above I think is a more strategic move.  ****, we were able to trade Sanu for a 2 mid season.  If you think a team like the Ravens wouldn't trade for Julio midseason if it meant a better chance at winning the superbowl and that they wouldn't pay top dollar if they believed it would push them over the top, then I have a bridge to sell you.

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After signing the draft picks and getting McCarron’s numbers, we are currently $5.77m OVER the cap.

($10.149m top-5 of draft class - $3.9m bottom 5 of top-51 - $482k cap space = $5.767m)

Which, really, is nothing to fret over. Seriously, it’s going to be incredibly easy to get under the cap from there.

Gono is $3.5m, Oliver is $2.2m, Senat is $900k, Keith Smith is $700k. All could be cut or restructured.

Plus Julio’s contract could easily be extended/restructured to free upwards of $8m this year, and Grady’s could be extended/restructured to free upwards of $7m this year, with minimal increases to the next 2+ years.

Anyone saying we MUST trade Julio because of the cap issues is either ignorant or just pushing for clicks and shock-value. It simply isn’t close to true.

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24 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

If a guy retires, I think he is basically tearing up the remainder of his deal. I might be wrong on that, but as a for instance, I can't imagine the Colts kept paying Luck when he walked away out of the blue.

On that note, I was speculating the same about Matt late last season. He has a ton of reasons to take his health and go to broadcasting, and spending time with those boys as they grow up. I'm glad he didn't, but I wouldn't have been shocked.

As for Julio, after Luck quitting, Megatron before him,  and Barry Sanders long before him, nothing surprises me. 

Retired players don't get paid anymore.  Luck had 25 million in bonuses the Colts could have made him return but they chose not to.  I don't think Blank would go after JJ either.

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17 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

If a guy retires, I think he is basically tearing up the remainder of his deal. I might be wrong on that, but as a for instance, I can't imagine the Colts kept paying Luck when he walked away out of the blue.

On that note, I was speculating the same about Matt late last season. He has a ton of reasons to take his health and go to broadcasting, and spending time with those boys as they grow up. I'm glad he didn't, but I wouldn't have been shocked.

As for Julio, after Luck quitting, Megatron before him,  and Barry Sanders long before him, nothing surprises me. 

I think they dont have to pay his contract, but the dead money hit is still a thing.  In the case of Brees, moving the retirement after June 2nd, pushed the dead money to 2022.

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2021/03/14/saints-salary-cap-update-drew-brees-retire/

 

nstead, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports that the Saints will wait until later this summer to file the retirement paperwork, which will designate Brees a post-June 1 cut and defer $11.5 million in dead money into 2022. 

With Andrew Luck, he retired post June 2nd, so Colts didnt owe him salary, but the dead money hit still occurred cause there was a bonus paid out.


https://overthecap.com/the-cap-impact-of-andrew-lucks-retirement/#:~:text=Once Luck's is officially placed,against the cap in 2020.

Once Luck’s is officially placed on the retired list he will count for $18.4 million against the salary cap in 2019 and $6.4 million against the cap in 2020. $12.8 million of that figure comes from a $32 million signing bonus that Luck received in 2016 and the other $12 million comes from a roster bonus that was earned this past March

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Trading JJ this year would be stupid IMHO, but I am not going to deny it could happen. He's still a stud, and as someone mentioned earlier, his value has sunk because of his injury plagued year.  I also realize that we will never get the value we would want in a trade, since he is an aged asset.  That being said, let him have a year mentoring Pitts. That will pay off in spades down the road. 

I'm definitely in the keep JJ another year group.

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7 minutes ago, TTU Falcon said:

there is no compensation anyone will give up that will make the team better than they are with Julio.

This is where I depart from your basic theme. I also have doubts anyone will give up what it'd take for TF/AS to cut bait with him, but I won't declare that they absolutely won't. A team who feels they're a WR1 from the SB and is otherwise set with cap space and a young talented roster might pull a big trigger to get a couple of seasons out of him.

Baltimore is the usual suspect here, but there are others out there as well. The cold hard truth is, this team has terrible cap issues, and moving him would create space for what we can only assume would help us land a guy like Houston to aid the pass rush, along with whatever draft pick compensation we'd get.

That's hard to ignore on a team that is much more cap and impact defender starved than WR starved.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Dirtybird56 said:

I think and hope we’ll keep him for this season. But I also think a trade is much more on the table than I originally felt going into the offseason 

At least we should let things roll as is and see how the year is going. If the Falcons are sinking and Julio is having a good year, then we will get good offers. If the Falcons are flying then all is good anyway and we can look at opportunities in the next cycle.

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19 minutes ago, Beef said:

After signing the draft picks and getting McCarron’s numbers, we are currently $5.77m OVER the cap.

($10.149m top-5 of draft class - $3.9m bottom 5 of top-51 - $482k cap space = $5.767m)

Which, really, is nothing to fret over. Seriously, it’s going to be incredibly easy to get under the cap from there.

Gono is $3.5m, Oliver is $2.2m, Senat is $900k, Keith Smith is $700k. All could be cut or restructured.

Plus Julio’s contract could easily be extended/restructured to free upwards of $8m this year, and Grady’s could be extended/restructured to free upwards of $7m this year, with minimal increases to the next 2+ years.

Anyone saying we MUST trade Julio because of the cap issues is either ignorant or just pushing for clicks and shock-value. It simply isn’t close to true.

I really don't think you'll many, if any, folks around here saying we 'must' trade him for cap reasons. The cap is certainly the overriding factor if they do deal him, but from the FO perspective, that's only as it relates to getting more talent on the defensive side of the ball, I'm sure.

I think the kick the can days are basically over for the most part with this new FO. At least for some years. I think they'll continue to do the bare minimum to limp through the next year or two, and then be much more frugal in how they do contracts going forward.

That way we always have room to improve in FA and even through trades. TD never thought of the future. And frankly, neither has Blank in recent years.

 

 

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9 hours ago, matty72780 said:

Touchdowns aren't Julios fault, it’s all scheme and Julio has never been a big TD guy, but it’s also because he’s literally double teamed every snap, which allows guys like Ridley to emerge, Roddy White to extend his career, or make Austin Hooper look like he’s one of the “top receiving TE’s in the NFL” who’s done literally nothing in Cleveland with a massive contract. Julio requires the defense to scheme around his presence which is very difficult to say for most other skill players on the offensive side of the ball in the NFL. 

"Touchdowns aren't Julio's fault."

What kind of garbage is this? Not a TD guy? Wth. Calvin Johnson wasn't double and triple teamed? CJ had 23 more TDs in one less year than Julio. You are basically making an excuse for him being a between the 20's receiver and if that's the case, the reason we kick so many dang FGs. 

I love Julio. He takes much pressure off Calvin and will for Pitts too. I would never trade him for a song, but if we can get a 1st and 3rd, sign me up. 

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I’m curious as to how many games he has missed per year of his career. Although he is a freak talent wise he just has missed way to many games over his career. If a team is stupid enough to give us a 1 for him take it. Chance are he will be injured again this year. Imagine paying 1/7 your entire cap for a player who out due to injury.

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17 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

"Touchdowns aren't Julio's fault."

What kind of garbage is this? Not a TD guy? Wth. Calvin Johnson wasn't double and triple teamed? CJ had 23 more TDs in one less year than Julio. You are basically making an excuse for him being a between the 20's receiver and if that's the case, the reason we kick so many dang FGs. 

I love Julio. He takes much pressure off Calvin and will for Pitts too. I would never trade him for a song, but if we can get a 1st and 3rd, sign me up. 

PREACH!

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

I really don't think you'll many, if any, folks around here saying we 'must' trade him for cap reasons. The cap is certainly the overriding factor if they do deal him, but from the FO perspective, that's only as it relates to getting more talent on the defensive side of the ball, I'm sure.

I think the kick the can days are basically over for the most part with this new FO. At least for some years. I think they'll continue to do the bare minimum to limp through the next year or two, and then be much more frugal in how they do contracts going forward.

That way we always have room to improve in FA and even through trades. TD never thought of the future. And frankly, neither has Blank in recent years.

 

 

Huh?

Nearly every pundit on ESPN, NFLN, and CBS is now saying trading Julio is a forgone conclusion directly because we are too far over the cap to do anything else.

And quite a few people here are consistently parroting this notion. Which is absurd since we’re only $5.8m over.

And, you do realize TF’s mentor was Micky Loomis, right? Kicking the numbers can is literally what Loomis is known for.  They call him a cap guru/genius for precisely this reason.

And TF, after just restructuring/kicking the can on Ryan, Matthews, Fowler, and D. Jones contracts is now suddenly averse to doing more of it?

Doubtful. Especially since cap projections going forward are supposed to be massive bumps with the new TV contracts.

Edited by Beef
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9 hours ago, B3TD said:

Jerry Rice and Larry Fitzgerald were not freak athletes at all; TO was, and Randy had that freak speed, but they all had totally different styles and talents. It's silly to compare Julio to them, and it's silly to say that "great conditioning" and a pedigree is going to undo the fact that he's been pretty banged up his whole career.

Maybe Julio is just fine, but I can point to Calvin Johnson, probably the closest Julio comparison right off as an example that not everyone can hold up to a long career in the NFL. You just don't really know.

I'm with you, if it can't help the defense now, then I'm not interested in moving Julio, but let's not go overboard like this.  

Main reason Calvin Johnson left because Detroit was/is a total trash organization.

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1 minute ago, Beef said:

Huh?

Nearly every pundit on ESPN, NFLN, and CBS is now saying trading Julio is a forgone conclusion directly because we are too far over the cap to do anything else.

And quite a few people here are consistently parroting this notion.

And, you do realize TF’s mentor was Micky Loomis, right? Kicking the numbers can is literally what Loomis is known for.  They call him a cap guru/genius for precisely this reason.

And TF, after just restructuring/kicking the van on Ryan, Matthews, Fowler, and D. Jones contracts is now suddenly averse to doing more of it?

Doubtful. Especially since cap projections going forward are supposed to be massive bumps with the new TV contracts.

I'm not going to comment on the paid idiot pundits, other than to say people posting those pundits' comments and referring to them isn't the same as a significant number of people saying we HAVE to trade him. We don't have to do anything but be $1 under the cap.

Restructuring guys that you inherited isn't the same as the guys you gave contracts to. They have to do some restructuring just to make the math work. 

As for who TF worked for, are you the same as your previous bosses? TF has repeatedly talked about navigating these cap issues to put us in a better place asap. I have no reason to believe he isn't sincere about that.

All in all, my original point stands. You aren't going to find many, if any, examples around here of people saying we HAVE to trade Julio.

 

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16 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

PREACH!

You know I love my Falcons and the players, but I will call a spade a spade too. I got a bunch of s**t back in the day regarding Michael Turner too because as great of a runner as he was, he only had 59 receptions in 5 years as the Falcons main back. And I think it's important to work on things as you mature in your position

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16 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

I'm not going to comment on the paid idiot pundits, other than to say people posting those pundits' comments and referring to them isn't the same as a significant number of people saying we HAVE to trade him. We don't have to do anything but be $1 under the cap.

Restructuring guys that you inherited isn't the same as the guys you gave contracts to. They have to do some restructuring just to make the math work. 

As for who TF worked for, are you the same as your previous bosses? TF has repeatedly talked about navigating these cap issues to put us in a better place asap. I have no reason to believe he isn't sincere about that.

All in all, my original point stands. You aren't going to find many, if any, examples around here of people saying we HAVE to trade Julio.

 

But my issue with the cap excuse is mostly that the cap stands to rise considerably next year. The cap was crunched this year which put **** near every franchise in a position that no one expected. 

There are ways of kicking the can down the road without really extending a player, such as voidable years. There are tons of options available to create cap space. Yes we could use defenders, but in my opinion, I would much prefer building a strength than adding a little reinforcement to a wet napkin. We will live and die by the offense and that won't change whether we trade Julio or not.

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4 minutes ago, TTU Falcon said:

But my issue with the cap excuse is mostly that the cap stands to rise considerably next year. The cap was crunched this year which put **** near every franchise in a position that no one expected. 

There are ways of kicking the can down the road without really extending a player, such as voidable years. There are tons of options available to create cap space. Yes we could use defenders, but in my opinion, I would much prefer building a strength than adding a little reinforcement to a wet napkin. We will live and die by the offense and that won't change whether we trade Julio or not.

I get your point, TT. I'm not advocating for or against a trade. I just think it has to be looked at from a completely non-emotional standpoint, and having a new regime in town means that's exactly what will happen.

If they think they can meet their goals on offense without Julio, while getting great compensation in return, they're going to seriously consider that deal. Mainly, because I think this is the last year he'll have any real trade value, and he's likely a cap casualty after 21 anyway.

 

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26 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

You know I love my Falcons and the players, but I will call a spade a spade too. I got a bunch of s**t back in the day regarding Michael Turner too because as great of a runner as he was, he only had 59 receptions in 5 years as the Falcons main back. And I think it's important to work on things as you mature in your position

True, which is why I've always loved Matt. He goes into every offseason trying to find an area to focus on and improve. That shouldn't be rare in sports, but it is.

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9 hours ago, B3TD said:

Jerry Rice and Larry Fitzgerald were not freak athletes at all; TO was, and Randy had that freak speed, but they all had totally different styles and talents. It's silly to compare Julio to them, and it's silly to say that "great conditioning" and a pedigree is going to undo the fact that he's been pretty banged up his whole career.

Maybe Julio is just fine, but I can point to Calvin Johnson, probably the closest Julio comparison right off as an example that not everyone can hold up to a long career in the NFL. You just don't really know.

I'm with you, if it can't help the defense now, then I'm not interested in moving Julio, but let's not go overboard like this.  

If you can play WR into your mid 30’s, you’re a freak athlete based on your CONDITIONING, which I referred too. Also, Fitz is a freak, you’re watching the wrong person. Also, being a “freak athlete” doesn’t mean need to look muscular. For example, Warrick Dunn was a freak athlete, to be that small and play so many years and rush over 10k yards. It’s about conditioning and Julio’s been very vocal and transparent about how serious he takes it, just as the other names I mentioned had as well. 

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They can give Julio all the TDs he wants. Not sure why they don't. But the red zone offense of the past has left a lot to be desired. Smith is coming in with the last two years being 76% and 75% in the red zone. I'm not doing the research but that sounds like the best two year run of red zone offense in league history. Heck the Packers set the record last year with 80% and they were in the 60s the year before. 

Red zone success comes from a threat to run the ball. If the Falcons have that, and not just the DK: run the biggest back into the butt of the left guard philosophy, then they will be pretty great.

Julio doesn't care about catching TDs. He just wants to win. Me too.

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