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Should we trade back or take Pitts?


Trade Back or Stay at 4 for Pitts  

124 members have voted

  1. 1. Trade Back or Stay at 4 for Pitts?

    • Draft Pitts at #4
      71
    • Trade Back (For a good deal)
      53


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I don't see a thread that is simply a discussion of the merits of these two options (at least in purpose) - so I wanted to make a poll to gauge people's feelings.

 

I have been flip flopping over this decision, but I think I have decided that with 9 draft picks... *unless* we get a too good to be true trade back deal, we should take Pitts. We gave up the farm for Julio, and while that can be debated for a long time - one thing you can't debate is the popularity, highlight reels, and sheer firepower he's brought to the offense by being on the field. We have a chance at getting that same thing, but without giving up an entire draft for it. And we still have 8 picks left. 

 

So I say take Pitts, what about y'all?

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It's gonna take a LOT to trade back out of drafting Pitts.. At least 2 future first round picks IMO. (2022 1st, 2023 1st) - Anything less and no thanks.

Even if its Detroit trying to move up 2 spots, where yes we could still get Sewell potentially, its not worth it unless its at minimum next year 1st from a bad team. Pitts is worth more than 2 first round picks in the grand scheme of a career.

 

My ideal non-Pitts draft would be getting like 2022 1st + 2023 1st + 2022 3rd, and going back to a spot like Denver where we can still draft Horn, Parsons or Surtain. That'd be ideal if the staff doesn't think Pitts is the next TG.

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Pitts is BPA and most don't realize Falcons are thin at Receiving options outside of Ridley. Hurst and Gage are volume guys like Harry Douglas, who had a 1000 yard season.Both had problems getting open in the RZ. Falcons have been getting weaker in RZ every year. The team last year couldn't replace the RZ pass catching production from Freeman, Coleman and Julio with Hurst or Gage. 

Put Pitts in the Lineup, let the teams decide who they going to cover him. If they get an extra DB in dime package, run down their throats. They put a LB and Pitts should win that match up with his quickness. 

I don't mind trading down and grabbing Surtain or Parsons if the Falcons get good haul of picks. 

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8 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Pitts is BPA and most don't realize Falcons are thin at Receiving options outside of Ridley. Hurst and Gage are volume guys like Harry Douglas, who had a 1000 yard season.Both had problems getting open in the RZ. Falcons have been getting weaker in RZ every year. The team last year couldn't replace the RZ pass catching production from Freeman, Coleman and Julio with Hurst or Gage. 

Put Pitts in the Lineup, let the teams decide who they going to cover him. If they get an extra DB in dime package, run down their throats. They put a LB and Pitts should win that match up with his quickness. 

I don't mind trading down and grabbing Surtain or Parsons if the Falcons get good haul of picks. 

 

You summed up my feelings in quite ab it more detail. 

It'd have to be a big haul of picks + guarantee of Surtain or Parsons... I don't think anything less would suffice. 

Pitts could turn this offense into 2016 caliber stuff if he pans out. 

  

Just now, HASHBROWN3 said:

You should have a category for those happy to do either one.  But it would have to be a really nice offer to pass on this guy.

Don’t forget, we can take offers in the 2nd round as well.  There will be 1st round talent dropping to the top of the 2nd that will be in high demand.  

Yeah but I think any of us would be happy with either one... BUT the Falcons can and will only do one :D

This forces the issue and kind of shows where people would rather go. Thought experiment I guess, lol.

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2 minutes ago, Drunken Minotaur Zebra said:

 

You summed up my feelings in quite ab it more detail. 

It'd have to be a big haul of picks + guarantee of Surtain or Parsons... I don't think anything less would suffice. 

Pitts could turn this offense into 2016 caliber stuff if he pans out. 

This has been the story in RZ last year. 

https://www.raiders.com/video/nick-kwiatkoski-chases-down-matt-ryan-and-comes-up-with-his-first-sack-as-a-raid

Pull up  the sack in chargers game in RZ, very similar story with all the options covered. Ryan and OL were decent in avoiding pressures but he needs some one open to throw the ball. Sure, Ryan made some bad decisions, just like any QB. 

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2 minutes ago, Drunken Minotaur Zebra said:

 

You summed up my feelings in quite ab it more detail. 

It'd have to be a big haul of picks + guarantee of Surtain or Parsons... I don't think anything less would suffice. 

Pitts could turn this offense into 2016 caliber stuff if he pans out. 

  

Yeah but I think any of us would be happy with either one... BUT the Falcons can and will only do one :D

This forces the issue and kind of shows where people would rather go. Thought experiment I guess, lol.

You bet.  If I had to choose one, I ask myself which player would our division be worried about the most for our pick?

Pitts.

That is why I would just turn that card in & not think twice about it.  With AS & his TE usage, it just keeps adding up.

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My personal feelings on this are that I'd prefer to trade down.

But here's where I differ from others:  I feel like I'd actually like a trade down to Chicago or someone else deep in the first, this should be a huge haul of pics for the future years.  As well as likely some pretty nice day 2 and day 3 picks this year.  Although we'd be at 20, if someone is sliding we have a lot of pics to work with moving back up.  (See Miami this year).

Though, I am someone who prefers Horn to Surtain, so that may play into why I feel that way, but I won't be surprised if Horn gets picked before Surtain anyway.

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15 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

This has been the story in RZ last year. 

https://www.raiders.com/video/nick-kwiatkoski-chases-down-matt-ryan-and-comes-up-with-his-first-sack-as-a-raid

Pull up  the sack in chargers game in RZ, very similar story with all the options covered. Ryan and OL were decent in avoiding pressures but he needs some one open to throw the ball. Sure, Ryan made some bad decisions, just like any QB. 

Koetter had two red zone plays. 

Everyone run to the back of the end zone or the biggest back runs up the middle three times. 

Smith's Titans finished 75.6% in the redzone and 75% over the past two years. 

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2 minutes ago, Jesus said:

Koetter had two red zone plays. 

Everyone run to the back of the end zone or the biggest back runs up the middle three times. 

Smith's Titans finished 75.6% in the redzone and 75% over the past two years. 

Titans had guys open winning matchups. Sure some of it is on DK but Titans had much better options than Ridley, Hurst and Gage. 

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1 minute ago, falcons007 said:

Titans had guys open winning matchups. Sure some of it is on DK but Titans had much better options than Ridley, Hurst and Gage. 

I don't know if I agree with that outside of Henry. With a back like that who was always a threat to score from anywhere you're gonna do well.

That said the Packers set the record at 80% in the redzone this past season and I don't think they had better talent.  75% at number two is no slouch. Getting 75% back to back years is pretty great. In 2019 the Packers were only 64%.

 

 

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One thing people need to realize about 9 picks is 4-5 of them aren’t going to make the 53 and will end up on the PS.

We already have 56 on the roster with probably 4-6 camp bodies, such as Becker, Roland, Brooks-James, Abrams, and Maggio.

Do we really expect to pickup more picks and draft even more than the 9 guys we’re already drafting?

Who’s on the chopping block because of a 5th or 6th round rookie?  And what about the salary cap?

The #4 pick is $5.66M cap hit.  If we move back to say #10, it’s $3.48M cap hit. But the additional picks would likely be more than the $2.18M difference as the average 2nd round cap hit is $1.3M and the average 3rd-5th round cap hit is ~$800k.

So moving back, while it sounds great, may not be as viable as we all think.  It could cost more, and we end up with just more guys for the PS since it’s much less likely for rookies to just supplant veterans and become instant starters/upgrades.

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38 minutes ago, Snowen said:

It's gonna take a LOT to trade back out of drafting Pitts.. At least 2 future first round picks IMO. (2022 1st, 2023 1st) - Anything less and no thanks.

Even if its Detroit trying to move up 2 spots, where yes we could still get Sewell potentially, its not worth it unless its at minimum next year 1st from a bad team. Pitts is worth more than 2 first round picks in the grand scheme of a career.

 

My ideal non-Pitts draft would be getting like 2022 1st + 2023 1st + 2022 3rd, and going back to a spot like Denver where we can still draft Horn, Parsons or Surtain. That'd be ideal if the staff doesn't think Pitts is the next TG.

Or it can be viewed from the other angle...if we stay at #4 and select Pitts, he is valued at two (2) 1st roudners and two (2) second rounders, becuae that is what we cna get for that pick...Thats too rich for a TE...even just moving back to #7 with DET for an extra 2nd rounder is better...

Pitts is not worth #4 in a regular draft when there isn't trade up interest for two QBs....hes a TE...No WRs, TEs, or RBs in the first round...ever...

Whoa re the best TEs in the league right now?

Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Tonyan, Gesiki, Ertz, Andrews, Hooper none in the 1st round...TEs of recent that were at the top of the game Gronk, Graham, Olson, Cook, Gates, Gonzalez, Witten...none in 1st round..

The value isnt there regardless of his unicorn features...

You can get really good TEs in later rounds (ie Tremble), plus we already have one on the roster...I think its QB or trade back...

 

Ask yourself this...would you rather have Pitts....or get the #1 CB (who would normally go in Top 6 most years and get a pass rusher (Phillips, Ossai, Oweh, etc)? Plus a 1st rounder next year to use on replacing Julio/Calvin?

Edited by Matt_The Iceman_Ryan
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It happens every year where coaches , fans, and GMs fall in love with that one ayer who they think will put their team over the top. We fall in love with the flashy player- the RB, the WR, the DB, the athletic freaks.

Year after year, the good teams accumulate draft capital and hit on their draft picks. And always stock up on the lines. When is the last time this team had a line that dominated the LOS on either side. 

We may make the playoffs, but will not beat teams with good QBs or with good Dlines. Whatever this team needs to do to get to the QB and protect the QB is what this team needs to do year after year. Rinse and repeat! We won't beat the Bucs because we don't have the players who can protect from their pass rushers nor do we have anyone who can get to TB12.

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5 minutes ago, rudy said:

What is a "good deal"? If it's a boat load of picks like 2 additional 1st round... plus a couple 2nd or similar combination then I definitely would trade back. Otherwise I would stay and pick Pitts.

IE slightly better than average... not someone giving up the house like the 49ers did to move to 3, but also not getting screwed like that one article's Denver trade where we got a 2nd and 3rd and gave up a 5th. 

 

  

8 minutes ago, The Architect said:

In this scenario I'd take Pitts and try to trade down at least twice in the 2nd.

I'm on board with that. This is a deep draft at positions we need. 

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23 minutes ago, Jesus said:

I don't know if I agree with that outside of Henry. With a back like that who was always a threat to score from anywhere you're gonna do well.

That said the Packers set the record at 80% in the redzone this past season and I don't think they had better talent.  75% at number two is no slouch. Getting 75% back to back years is pretty great. In 2019 the Packers were only 64%.

 

 

Corey Davis, Brown, Jonu Smith did some serious damage in the red zone. They are better talent than JAGs we have on the roster outside of Ridley.  Falcons Receiving options are way overrated on this board. No wonder AS didn’t mention any one outside of Ridley.

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