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Kiper & McShay ESPN+ 3 Round Mock Draft


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With Round 1 of the 2021 NFL draft only nine days away, let's look ahead with a new three-round mock draft ... with a twist. This time, ESPN NFL draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay made their predictions based on what they would do with each pick, not what they think each team will do. They're playing general manager for all 32 teams and using their personal rankings to guide them. The rules for the draft:

  • Three full rounds, 105 total picks and all about whom Kiper and McShay would take at each pick.

  • Kiper and McShay alternated each pick, with Kiper starting at No. 1 and taking the odd numbers and McShay taking the evens.

  • No deals that even hint at "I won't take Player X if you don't take Player Y." No cheating.

We also included our ESPN NFL Draft Day Predictor's chances for each first-round pick to be available in that slot. It is a model that forecasts the range of draft outcomes for NFL prospects based on mock drafts, team needs and Scouts Inc. grades to give us availability and selection likelihood.

Kiper kicks us off with the Jaguars, and he'll also get the final pick as we go through the compensatory selections to the Saints at No. 105. Four teams make as many as five picks, including the Jaguars. Kiper also made the only trade of this three-round projection, with a team jumping into the top 10 to take a quarterback. Check out the 90-minute SportsCenter Special at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday (ESPN2 and ESPN App) to see them go through our picks.

Note: An asterisk denotes a compensatory selection. Also, remember that the Patriots' own third-round pick was forfeited.

Jump to:
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3
Kiper's trade

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1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Kiper's pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

No surprises here. Lawrence is one of my highest-graded quarterbacks ever, and he'll immediately become the face of the Jaguars franchise.

Lawrence's chances of being available here, according to the ESPN NFL Draft Day Predictor: 100%


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2. New York Jets

McShay's pick: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

If there was any doubt that the Jets were going with a QB at No. 2 overall, it vanished when they dealt Sam Darnold earlier this month. Wilson has a ton of upside as a guy New York can build around.

Wilson's chances of being available here: 98.5%


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3. San Francisco 49ers (via MIA through HOU)

 

Kiper's pick: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

You should know by now how much I like Fields. He has all the tools to be a superstar, and he'd thrive in Kyle Shanahan's offense.

Fields' chances of being available here: 100%


EDITOR'S PICKS

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4. Atlanta Falcons

McShay's pick: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

There's of course a decent chance new coach Arthur Smith gets his QB of the future with this pick, but I'm not passing on a multidimensional offensive nightmare like Pitts. He can be used all over the formation and is nearly impossible to cover.

Pitts' chances of being available here: 96.4%


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5. Cincinnati Bengals

Kiper's pick: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

I just don't think the Bengals can pass up a franchise left tackle like Sewell, even with Joe Burrow's buddy Ja'Marr Chase still on the board. Burrow can't throw the ball if he's on his back.

Sewell's chances of being available here: 98.0%


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6. Miami Dolphins (via PHI)

McShay's pick: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Chase is my No. 1 wide receiver, and Miami absolutely has to get another weapon for Tua Tagovailoa. Suddenly he'd have Chase, Will Fuller V and DeVante Parker. You can win with that trio.

Chase's chances of being available here: 45.0%


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Projected trade: New England moves up for a QB

Kiper: We needed a trade for a quarterback -- they happen every year -- so I'm going to make one with myself since I'm the general manager of the odd-numbered teams. This deal sees the Patriots jump eight spots to get their guy, while the Lions add the Patriots' second-round pick (No. 46), plus future selections, maybe even their first-rounder in next year's draft. It's a lot to give up, but Bill Belichick & Co. need a long-term solution at the game's most important position.


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7. New England Patriots (via mock trade with DET)

Kiper's pick: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

I have Jones slightly ahead of Trey Lance, and I think he's more ready to play as a rookie, particularly for a team that made several win-now moves this offseason. Plus, Josh McDaniels has already proved that he can game-plan for a pocket passer with tremendous accuracy.

Jones' chances of being available here: 6.8%


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8. Carolina Panthers

McShay's pick: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

The Panthers have to protect Sam Darnold for their trade for him to work out. They franchise-tagged Taylor Moton, but Slater can start opposite him at left tackle or slide inside to guard for a year.

Slater's chances of being available here: 99.0%


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9. Denver Broncos

Kiper's pick: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Remember: This mock draft is what I would do, and I don't think Drew Lock is the long-term answer in Denver. Lance is only 20, and he'll need some time, but he has a high ceiling.

Lance's chances of being available here: 5.1%


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10. Dallas Cowboys

McShay's pick: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

Dallas gets first pick of the defensive pool, and I'm reuniting Surtain with his former Alabama teammate Trevon Diggs in this CB room. Surtain is a true shutdown corner.

Surtain's chances of being available here: 84.7%

 

play

2:01

How should the Cowboys address their defensive needs in the draft?

Mel Kiper and Todd McShay give their opinions on what the Cowboys should do with their first-round pick.


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11. New York Giants

Kiper's pick: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Daniel Jones needs more weapons, and now he'll have the Heisman Trophy winner next to free-agent signing Kenny Golladay. This Giants offense could be dangerous in the NFC East.

Smith's chances of being available here: 47.6%


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12. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA through SF)

McShay's pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Philly can exhale: The Eagles moved back to No. 12 and still got one of the top four pass-catchers. Waddle is the most dangerous player in the class with the ball in his hands.

Waddle's chances of being available here: 49.9%


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13. Los Angeles Chargers

Kiper's pick: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

McShay surprised me by taking Rashawn Slater at No. 8, but I don't think it's out of the question that Darrisaw goes this high. He could be L.A.'s starter at left tackle as a rookie.

Darrisaw's chances of being available here: 93.2%


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14. Minnesota Vikings

McShay's pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC

There are holes all over the Vikings' line, and Vera-Tucker has versatility -- though his best fit is at guard. He's a strong blocker at the second level, which will help open lanes for Dalvin Cook in the running game.

Vera-Tucker's chances of being available here: 87.4%


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15. Detroit Lions (via mock trade with NE)

Kiper's pick: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Detroit trades down to pick up extra assets and still gets an impact defensive player. Parsons is a playmaker who will run down tailbacks and pitch in as a pass-rusher.

Parsons' chances of being available here: 21.2%


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16. Arizona Cardinals

McShay's pick: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

Both outside CBs are on one-year deals, and Horn is a tough press corner with wheels. Arizona needs someone who can square up with the elite NFC West receivers now that Patrick Peterson is elsewhere.

Horn's chances of being available here: 28.8%


2021 NFL draft coverage

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 Mocks: Kiper | McShay | Tannenbaum
 Rankings: Kiper | McShay
 Kiper/McShay: Dueling mock | All-22
 Team needs | Best QB traits | Mailbag
 McShay's playmakers | Kiper's favorites
 Full ranking | Pick order | More

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17. Las Vegas Raiders

Kiper's pick: Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

This might be a little high for my top-ranked safety, but the Raiders have been tough to predict with Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock in charge. Moehrig can be the deep safety next to Johnathan Abrams.

Moehrig's chances of being available here: 88.7%


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18. Miami Dolphins

McShay's pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

We got the Dolphins a receiver in the top 10, so I'm turning to the defense here and getting them something they haven't had in a while: a versatile linebacker who can cover and fill multiple roles.

Owusu-Koramoah's chances of being available here: 59.8%


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19. Washington Football Team

Kiper's pick: Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky

Washington has a great front four, but it could upgrade at middle linebacker. Davis has elite tape from the 2020 season, and he has some coverage ability, too.

Davis' chances of being available here: 96.6%


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20. Chicago Bears

McShay's pick: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

I'm not seeing any offensive tackles here for Chicago, even if I were to reach a little bit, and the Day 1 quarterbacks are off the board. So with Desmond Trufant on a one-year deal, I like Farley -- probably the top cover corner in the class -- as a running mate to Jaylon Johnson for years to come.

Farley's chances of being available here: 37.6%


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21. Indianapolis Colts

Kiper's pick: Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami

I can't believe this is the first edge rusher off the board. Phillips has a history of injuries -- he medically retired from football when he was at UCLA -- but there's no denying his pass-rush traits. And that's the Colts' biggest need.

Phillips' chances of being available here: 74.0%


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22. Tennessee Titans

McShay's pick: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

I keep going back and forth on Moore and Florida's Kadarius Toney, but I like Moore's explosiveness as a replacement for the Titans' free-agency losses in the receiving game (Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries).

Moore's chances of being available here: 95.6%


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23. New York Jets (via SEA)

Kiper's pick: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern

I thought about defensive end Kwity Paye here, but Newsome could be the Jets' top corner on Day 1. New coach Robert Saleh will love Newsome's ability to turn and run against even the fastest wideouts.

Newsome's chances of being available here: 53.8%

 

ESPN


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24. Pittsburgh Steelers

McShay's pick: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Pittsburgh's 3.6 yards per carry ranked last in the NFL in 2020, and it just lost its most productive rusher in James Conner. Mel might not like first-round running backs, but this makes too much sense.

Harris' chances of being available here: 77.3%


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25. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR)

Kiper's pick: Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

I love the fit for Toney in Jacksonville, where new coach Urban Meyer can come up with creative ways to get the ball in his hands. He'll be Trevor Lawrence's best friend.

Toney's chances of being available here: 49.5%


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26. Cleveland Browns

McShay's pick: Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan

It's a mini slide for Paye, my top-ranked edge rusher, but Cleveland isn't complaining. The Browns still need a high-end pass-rusher opposite Myles Garrett, even after the Jadeveon Clowney and Takkarist McKinley signings.

Paye's chances of being available here: 5.7%


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27. Baltimore Ravens

Kiper's pick: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU

I'm staying consistent here -- I've had Marshall to the Ravens in each of my four mock drafts -- because Lamar Jackson needs an outside threat. Marshall was overshadowed a bit at LSU, but he can run every route.

Marshall's chances of being available here: 84.4%


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28. New Orleans Saints

McShay's pick: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

If Jameis Winston and/or Taysom Hill are going to have any sort of success, they need receiver reinforcements. Bateman makes tough catches in the middle of the field and is versatile.

Bateman's chances of being available here: 68.9%


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29. Green Bay Packers

Kiper's pick: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

Since McShay took Bateman, I'll settle for a starting tackle for Green Bay. Jenkins, who played right tackle in college, is extremely physical in the running game.

Jenkins' chances of being available here: 34.1%


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30. Buffalo Bills

McShay's pick: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

Collins can cover, shoot gaps in run defense and rush the passer. He'd fit nicely next to Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano at the second level and help shore up Buffalo's middle-of-the-pack pass rush.

Collins' chances of being available here: 44.6%

 

play

1:08

Zaven Collins' NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights from Tulsa OLB Zaven Collins' college career.


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31. Kansas City Chiefs

Kiper's pick: Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama

I'm a big fan of Dickerson, who might go in Round 2 because he tore his ACL in December. If he's healthy, though, he could step in and start at center for the Chiefs, who need more quality linemen.

Dickerson's chances of being available here: 91.6%


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32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

McShay's pick: Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

Mayfield is a drive blocker who can help open lanes for the Bucs' running game. I think he'd serve as a swing tackle early on before eventually earning a starting gig opposite 2020 first-rounder Tristan Wirfs.

Mayfield's chances of being available here: 89.7%

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ROUND 2

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33. Jacksonville Jaguars

Kiper's pick: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Yes, that's the first three picks on offense for the Jaguars. They were not good on either side of the ball -- there's a reason they had the No. 1 pick. Etienne joins his Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and he'll be a menace in the passing game.


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34. New York Jets

McShay's pick: Azeez Ojulari, OLB, Georgia

New York had problems getting to the QB last year, and Ojulari is elite in that area. He'll be a very good situational edge rusher and can help cover underneath.


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35. Atlanta Falcons

Kiper's pick: Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

New coach Arthur Smith -- who had Derrick Henry in Tennessee -- adds a physical running back to take the pressure off Matt Ryan. Williams had the highest rate of broken tackles of any FBS running back last season.


First Draft Podcast

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Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay break down the 2021 NFL draft.
 First Draft podcast »

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36. Miami Dolphins (via HOU)

McShay's pick: Liam Eichenberg, OT/G, Notre Dame

Getting Tua Tagovailoa a receiver (Ja'Marr Chase) was half the battle. How about a clean pocket? I expect GM Chris Grier to invest picks in this offense, and I'm doing the same. Eichenberg is versatile enough to play tackle or guard.


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37. Philadelphia Eagles

Kiper's pick: Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

This is a great fit for the Eagles, who need a sideline-to-sideline middle linebacker in new coordinator Jonathan Gannon's defense. Bolton is a tackling machine.


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38. Cincinnati Bengals

McShay's pick: Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville

Mel has Penei Sewell coming to protect Joe Burrow, so I now want to get him a receiver. Atwell is lightning quick and would give the offense some burst.


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39. Carolina Panthers

Kiper's pick: Hunter Long, TE, Boston College

Ian Thomas, a fourth-round pick in 2018, only has 36 catches over the past two seasons, and so the Panthers need a tight end who can stretch the middle of the field. Long is also a good blocker -- he's a complete player.


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40. Denver Broncos

McShay's pick: Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State

Linebacker was the first thing I looked for on my "best available" sheet, but there's just no value there. While Denver brought in Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller (who is on a one-year deal), I still think this cornerback unit needs depth. Samuel can also play the nickel role in the short term.


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41. Detroit Lions

Kiper's pick: Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina

Since Detroit's trade down took them out of the running for the top-tier wideouts, let's add Brown to a barren depth chart. He averaged 20 yards per catch in each of the past two seasons.


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42. New York Giants

McShay's pick: Ronnie Perkins, OLB/DE, Oklahoma

I love this fit. Perkins is an excellent pass-rusher, which is exactly what the Giants need, and it's good value for him in this range. He had 5.5 sacks and nine QB hurries in only six games last season.

 

play

0:48

Ronnie Perkins' NFL draft profile

Check out highlights from Oklahoma's standout defensive end Ronnie Perkins.


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43. San Francisco 49ers

Kiper's pick: Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

Campbell had an inconsistent college career, but teams are looking for high-end traits here. The 49ers let both Ahkello Witherspoon and Richard Sherman walk as free agents.


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44. Dallas Cowboys

McShay's pick: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

Only three teams allowed five-plus yards per carry last year, and Dallas was among them. Barmore would help stop the bleeding in the middle of the defense.


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45. Jacksonville Jaguars (via MIN)

Kiper's pick: Richie Grant, S, UCF

This makes four picks so far for the Jaguars, and this is the first on defense. Grant has the versatility to play as a center fielder or down in the box.


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46. Detroit Lions (via mock trade with NE)

McShay's pick: Joe Tryon, DE, Washington

This pick goes to Detroit via Mel's Lions-Patriots trade in the first round. I liked seeing Romeo Okwara return to the Lions, but I want to see a whole lot more off the edge. Tryon can play both defensive end and 3-4 outside linebacker.


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47. Los Angeles Chargers

Kiper's pick: Jayson Oweh, DE/OLB, Penn State

Oweh has gotten some buzz as a first-rounder because of his athletic traits, but I wouldn't take a chance on him that high. The Chargers can let him be a situational pass-rusher as a rookie.


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48. Las Vegas Raiders

McShay's pick: Kelvin Joseph, CB, Kentucky

Texas' Samuel Cosmi or North Dakota State's Dillon Radunz could play a role in rebuilding the offensive line, but the Raiders allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the NFL last season (4,212). Let's keep building up the secondary.


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49. Arizona Cardinals

Kiper's pick: Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson

Rodgers is one of the best slot receivers in this class, and Kyler Murray needs an underneath target who knows how to get open. Christian Kirk is in the final year of his rookie contract.


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50. Miami Dolphins

McShay's pick: Samuel Cosmi, OT/G, Texas

With no running backs in this range, it's more protection for Tua Tagovailoa. And like Liam Eichenberg, Cosmi is versatile and can play inside or outside. Let's see if Tagovailoa is truly the guy for Miami.


ESPN Draft Challenge

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Answer questions on the 2021 NFL draft for a chance to win $110,000! Make Your Picks

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51. Washington Football Team

Kiper's pick: Davis Mills, QB, Stanford

Here's the sixth quarterback in the class. Mills is all over the place on teams' boards, but he makes sense in Washington, which isn't picking high enough to take one of the top five signal-callers. Mills played in only 14 games at Stanford, so there is some risk taking him any higher.


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52. Chicago Bears

McShay's pick: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

If Mel hadn't taken Davis Mills at No. 51, I had him penciled in here. I'm not ready to reach for Texas A&M's Kellen Mond or Florida's Kyle Trask just yet, so I'll pivot to giving Andy Dalton another playmaker. Moore has rare speed and burst.


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53. Tennessee Titans

Kiper's pick: Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia

The Titans parted ways with Adoree' Jackson, Desmond King II and Malcolm Butler and only brought in Janoris Jenkins. If they don't go corner in Round 1, they have to take one here. Stokes had four picks last season.


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54. Indianapolis Colts

McShay's pick: Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

Remember when new Colts QB Carson Wentz was under fire every Sunday last season in Philadelphia? It didn't go so well. And left tackle Anthony Castonzo just retired.


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55. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kiper's pick: Alex Leatherwood, OT/G, Alabama

I don't think Leatherwood is a top-50 player, but he's a fit for Pittsburgh, which needs both a guard and tackle. If McShay is giving the Steelers a running back in Round 1, I need to get them a player to block.


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56. Seattle Seahawks

McShay's pick: Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami

We got one pick for Seattle in the first three rounds. Rousseau's pro day left a little to be desired, but he had 15.5 sacks in 2019 before opting out in 2020. He just needs some refining.


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57. Los Angeles Rams

Kiper's pick: Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma

This is the Rams' first pick, and they could be getting an immediate starter in Humphrey, who excels as both a run- and pass-blocker. There's a chance Humphrey is the top center drafted, even higher in Round 2.


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58. Baltimore Ravens

McShay's pick: Carlos Basham Jr., DE/OLB, Wake Forest

The exits of Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue leave a void off the edge, and Basham has a lot of power coming around the corner. He can also bump inside if asked.


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59. Cleveland Browns

Kiper's pick: Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn

The speedy Schwartz could be a deep threat for the Browns, who still need depth at receiver. He was used on underneath routes in college, but he has some untapped potential.

 

play

0:35

Anthony Schwartz's NFL draft profile

Check out highlights from Auburn's dynamic wide receiver Anthony Schwartz.


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60. New Orleans Saints

McShay's pick: Jabril Cox, LB, LSU

Rashod Bateman checks the WR box, and now Cox gives the defense an impact inside linebacker who is excellent in coverage.


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61. Buffalo Bills

Kiper's pick: Aaron Robinson, CB, UCF

I thought about tight end here, but Robinson has the potential to be a starter opposite Tre'Davious White. He's also an outstanding tackler, which is underrated for corners.


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62. Green Bay Packers

McShay's pick: Patrick Jones II, DE, Pitt

Oklahoma State's Tylan Wallace and Michigan's Nico Collins got some consideration here regarding the ongoing need for pass-catchers. But ultimately, I liked Jones' fit with a team lacking depth on the edge.


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63. Kansas City Chiefs

Kiper's pick: Malcolm Koonce, OLB, Buffalo

Finally a spot for my guy Koonce, who is one of my favorite pass-rushers in this class. He's long and athletic, and could wreak havoc off the edge as a situational defender for the Chiefs.


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64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

McShay's pick: Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State

Antonio Brown doesn't appear to be returning, and Tom Brady is at his best when he can get the ball to multiple targets. Wallace has a lot of speed, too.

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ROUND 3

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65. Jacksonville Jaguars

Kiper's pick: Quinn Meinerz, C/G, Wisconsin-Whitewater

Let's close out the Jags' five picks in the first three rounds with a D-III linemen whom no one should doubt. He could play guard or center but might fit better as guard Andrew Norwell's successor in Jacksonville.


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66. New York Jets

McShay's pick: Jackson Carman, OT/G, Clemson

We have to keep Zach Wilson upright, and Carman has size, mobility and versatility. He could provide depth at right tackle or move inside to guard.


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67. Houston Texans

Kiper's pick: D'Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan

This is the Texans' first pick of this draft after former coach/general manager traded for Laremy Tunsil. Eskridge is a slot weapon who will also be a key contributor in the return game.


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68. Atlanta Falcons

McShay's pick: Elijah Molden, CB, Washington

The Falcons are just crossing off needs, one pick at a time. Molden is more of a nickelback who stands out in zone coverage and can make plays on the ball.

 

play

1:06

Elijah Molden's NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights from Washington CB Elijah Molden's college career.


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69. Cincinnati Bengals

Kiper's pick: Aaron Banks, G, Notre Dame

After I gave the Bengals Penei Sewell in Round 1, Banks could plug another hole and help protect Joe Burrow while providing a push for Joe Mixon. A more efficient running game will make Burrow more efficient as a passer.


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70. Philadelphia Eagles

McShay's pick: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB, Syracuse

Melifonwu needs some refining, but he has a lot of upside as a press corner. The Eagles are lacking depth at the position beyond Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox (who could be a free agent in 2022).


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71. Denver Broncos

Kiper's pick: Joseph Ossai, OLB, Texas

This is a great fit, as Ossai is undersized and probably needs to land on a team that runs a 3-4. He could be a menace as a rookie pass-rusher in Vic Fangio's defense.


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72. Detroit Lions

McShay's pick: Jevon Holland, S, Oregon

The Lions' defense has a "Help Wanted" sign on most positions, and Holland is a ball hawk who can even drop down and line up over the slot.


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73. Carolina Panthers

Kiper's pick: Nico Collins, WR, Michigan

I got Sam Darnold some help in Round 2 with a tight end, and Collins is a big, 6-foot-4 receiver who averaged 19.7 yards per catch in 2019. He could be a steal this late.


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74. Washington Football Team (via SF)

McShay's pick: James Hudson, OT, Cincinnati

Yet another Day 2 lineman who can play inside or outside, Hudson needs some development time. He's a defensive-line convert who only has one full season as a starter under his belt.


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75. Dallas Cowboys

Kiper's pick: Walker Little, OT, Stanford

Offensive line is a sneaky need for the Cowboys, who had major injury issues last season. Little missed nearly all of 2019 with a knee injury and opted out of last season, but he has a first-round tool set.


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76. New York Giants

McShay's pick: Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina

Surratt has sideline-to-sideline range and can cover tight ends or running backs in the passing game. He brings a different element to the Giants' linebacking corps.


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77. Los Angeles Chargers

Kiper's pick: Benjamin St-Juste, CB, Minnesota

It was either corner or receiver here, and St-Juste has some upside. He made only 14 starts in college after transferring from Michigan. He could be Chris Harris Jr.'s successor.


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78. Minnesota Vikings

McShay's pick: Payton Turner, DE, Houston

Minnesota's 23 sacks ranked in the bottom five in 2020, and Turner has the strength to drive back blockers and get to the QB. He'd likely play a rotational role early in his career but should develop into a reliable starter.

 

play

0:56

Payton Turner's NFL draft profile

Check out highlights from Houston's dynamic edge rusher Payton Turner.


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79. Las Vegas Raiders (via ARI)

Kiper's pick: Spencer Brown, OT, Northern Iowa

Brown is massive -- 6-foot-8 -- and has some physical similarities to Raiders tackle Kolton Miller, who just got a big extension. He made 32 starts in college, all at right tackle.


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80. Las Vegas Raiders

McShay's pick: Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington

This is a really good depth add for the Raiders. He's super disruptive and can rotate with Quinton Jefferson, Johnathan Hankins and Solomon Thomas on the inside of Las Vegas' 4-3.


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81. Miami Dolphins

Kiper's pick: Chris Rumph II, LB, Duke

How did McShay have the Dolphins' first four picks? Rumph has some versatility -- Duke used him all over the field -- but he fits as an outside linebacker for the Dolphins, who need more from their pass rush this season. He had eight sacks in 2020. His dad, Chris, is the Bears' defensive line coach.


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82. Washington Football Team

McShay's pick: Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina

The Washington offense needs more weapons, and Smith is a strong route runner with good speed and hands. He really impressed at the Senior Bowl and then ran a 4.33 in the 40-yard dash at his pro day.


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83. Chicago Bears

Kiper's pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

I know that McShay gave the Bears Rondale Moore in Round 2, but they need to get Andy Dalton all the help they can. St. Brown had 178 catches over the past three seasons, and he knows how to get open.


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84. Philadelphia Eagles (via IND)

McShay's pick: Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse

Cisco is a ball hawk on the back end, hauling in 13 interceptions over 24 career games. The Eagles were one of four teams in the single digits in that category last season.


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85. Tennessee Titans

Kiper's pick: Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State

After letting Jonnu Smith walk in free agency, the Titans have Anthony Firkser atop their tight end depth chart. Freiermuth often played out of the slot for the Nittany Lions, and he's already advanced as a pass-catcher.

 

play

0:52

Pat Freiermuth's NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights from Penn State TE Pat Freiermuth college career.


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86. New York Jets (via SEA)

McShay's pick: Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State

The running back pool has thinned out, though Ohio State's Trey Sermon and North Carolina's Michael Carter piqued my interested here. But Davis is a plug-and-play guard who is dominant in pass protection, and right now, the Jets need everything they can get there.


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87. Pittsburgh Steelers

Kiper's pick: Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State

Wade got some first-round buzz after the 2019 season, but he had a poor 2020 season, when he moved out wide and covered the opposing team's best receiver. He's better out of the slot, and if he can get back to his 2019 form, he could be a steal.


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88. Los Angeles Rams

McShay's pick: Pete Werner, LB, Ohio State

I'm sticking the needs chart here. Kiper gave the Rams a center (Creed Humphrey) with their first pick, and now Werner can bring versatility, speed and length to the linebacking group.


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89. Cleveland Browns

Kiper's pick: Ernest Jones, LB, South Carolina

McShay got the Browns an edge rusher in Round 1, and Jones is a high-upside inside linebacker with instincts and long arms. The Browns don't have many immediate needs, so Jones could be eased in.


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90. Minnesota Vikings (via BAL)

McShay's pick: Richard LeCounte, S, Georgia

Anthony Harris signed in Philadelphia, and Harrison Smith is 32 years old. LeCounte has closing burst and ex-receiver ball skills.


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91. Cleveland Browns (via NO)

Kiper's pick: Ar'Darius Washington, S, TCU

Some teams view the 5-foot-8 Washington as a slot corner, but I think he's better as a deep safety. He had five picks in 2019. He could play a nickel or dime role for the Browns.


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92. Green Bay Packers

McShay's pick: Cade Johnson, WR, South Dakota State

It might be a little bit of a reach, but we can't go three rounds and not get the Packers a receiver. Johnson is really good in space and can be dangerous out of the slot.


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93. Buffalo Bills

Kiper's pick: Patrick Johnson, OLB, Tulane

This makes it all defense in the first three rounds for the Bills, who need to get younger on the edge. Johnson had 24.5 sacks over the past three seasons. He could be a third-down pass-rusher here.


Projecting the top draft prospects

Here's what to expect at the NFL level from the top players at these positions:
 Quarterbacks: QBASE 2.0
 Wide receivers: Playmaker score
 Running backs: BackCAST
 Pass rushers: SackSEER

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94. Kansas City Chiefs

McShay's pick: Larry Borom, OT, Missouri

Perhaps another slight reach, but the Chiefs need an offensive tackle. Blame Mel for passing on other OTs for Kansas City earlier on. Borom has size and power, but I worry about his movement skills at the next level.


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95. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kiper's pick: Cameron Sample, DE, Tulane

That's back-to-back Tulane defenders from me. Sample is a little bit bigger than Johnson but doesn't have the same kind of pass-rush potential. He could battle to be Jason Pierre-Paul's backup in Year 1.


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96. New England Patriots*

McShay's pick: Tay Gowan, CB, UCF

Gowan has upside as a press corner on the outside, but he might need some time to develop, considering he has just one season of FBS play on his résumé. But Stephon Gilmore is potentially a free agent in 2022, so cornerback depth is welcomed in New England.


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97. Los Angeles Chargers*

Kiper's pick: Simi Fehoko, WR, Stanford

Fehoko is a 6-foot-4 receiver who averaged 23.6 yards per catch in 2019. If the Chargers let Mike Williams walk next offseason, Fehoko could be the favorite to replace him. He needs to get red zone targets as well.


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98. New Orleans Saints*

McShay's pick: Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

Cornerback depth is already lacking in New Orleans, and it could get a lot worse if Marshon Lattimore departs in free agency next March. Adebo is a ball hawk with eight interceptions and 29 passes broken up over 22 career games.


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99. Dallas Cowboys*

Kiper's pick: Jamar Johnson, S, Utah

A safety helps fill all of the Cowboys' most immediate needs, as we've also given them a corner, defensive tackle and offensive tackle. Johnson could challenge Donovan Wilson and free-agent signing Damontae Kazee for a starting job.


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100. Tennessee Titans*

McShay's pick: Hamsah Nasirildeen, S, Florida State

We addressed WR, CB and TE, so it's between offensive line, safety and linebacker for me here. Why not combine two of those with Nasirildeen? He's a hybrid defender who played the "Star" position (a versatile linebacker/defensive back) in Florida State's defense -- a role previously held by Derwin James.


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101. Detroit Lions (via LAR)*

Kiper's pick: Demetric Felton, WR/RB, UCLA

The 5-foot-8 Felton played both running back and receiver for the Bruins, and he averaged 165.8 all-purpose yards in 2020. The Lions just need to add talent. He'd likely play slot receiver in Detroit.


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102. San Francisco 49ers*

McShay's pick: Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

The 49ers had one of the NFL's best run defenses last season. They drafted Javon Kinlaw in the first round last April, so let's go back to the defensive tackle well to give him a partner on the inside and keep the run D a strength. Nixon is very disruptive and is a good fit as a 3-technique in the San Francisco 4-3.

 

play

1:14

Daviyon Nixon's NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights from Iowa DT Daviyon Nixon's college career.


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103. Los Angeles Rams*

Kiper's pick: Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

Surratt ran a disappointing 4.69 40-yard dash at his pro day, but he put up good numbers in 2019 before opting out of this past season. The Rams added veteran DeSean Jackson this offseason, and they need more depth behind Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.


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104. Baltimore Ravens*

McShay's pick: Josh Myers, C, Ohio State

Myers would provide depth on the inside at both center and guard for an offensive line that is key to the Ravens' juggernaut running game. But like many late-Day 2 picks, he is a developmental prospect.


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105. New Orleans Saints*

Kiper's pick: Dayo Odeyingbo, DE, Vanderbilt

Odeyingbo has an intriguing skill set as a 285-pound defensive end, and the Saints need to find defensive help through the draft. Former first-round pick Marcus Davenport hasn't put it all together yet. Odeyingbo likely would have gone much higher if he hadn't torn his Achilles in January.

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Kind of sexy for us. If we picked up Pitts and Javonte Williams, I'd go into cryosleep for four months so I could wake up tomorrow and watch the first game of the season. Do either of them play EDGE?

Some things kind of stand out though. Like Miami drafted three starters for their line last season (including an interior OL). I can see them grabbing another guard/center but not two, especially since they need a ball handler. They're definitely coming out of the first three rounds with a RB1.

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9 minutes ago, KRUNKuno said:

We literally don’t have a defense

I'm guessing you were asleep during FA, lol.

We have more holes on offense (RB, OL, backup QB) now. I'd say our most glaring defensive need is a box safety to replace Keanu (and/or a LB), and a high-ceiling pass rusher.

Besides, TF and AS are BPA guys, not need-based like Troff.

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Honestly if they swapped Molden at CB for  Holland or Cisco at Safety in round 3 this draft would be really good for us and get 3 players i like alot.  Williams in round 2 is always gonna be one of my favorite picks.  He is my favorite RB in this draft and the one i think fits our team best outside of maybe Harris. 

Pitts is a BPA generational guy and if we don't trade down i feel he should be the pick although i still think a trade down to get to the defensive players like Parsons and Surtain is a better option.  But without one Pitts is just to good of a prospect to pass up there and we will be using 2 TE sets a ton.

Already said about the CB over Safety thing and that should be swapped to me at this point in time.  If we grab a solid Edge rusher with our next pick i think we would have done well for sure with this draft if it;s like the real one. 

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33 minutes ago, Aluminafalcon said:

I could see this happening but it going to be score 40+ a game to win season

Which to me is fine for the 1st year anyways as i don't think we are going to completely turn around the defense in 1 offseason.  So might as well let the offense roll for 1 year to atleast give us our best chance at winning games while we build the defense right over the next 2 or 3 years. So once Ryan does move on we have the defense in place completely while still winning games for ryan this year and next. 

To me the only way i take defense early is with a trade down and adding more picks where it makes the most sense.

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57 minutes ago, KRUNKuno said:

We literally don’t have a defense

I tend to agree with you here. But I also recognize how our offense has put our defense in bad situations for the past few years. If you don't have a top 10 offense, especially with regards to rushing, your defense is on the field a lot more than it should be. I'm surprised if there haven't been fights after games when the defense gave up 20 points and the team lost by 10. A great offense won't make a great defense, but it's hard to imagine having a good defense without a good offense*.

*Pardon me for being subjective in **** near every regard of this post. I guess I know it when I see it.

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I could live with these picks.  This year I am all about taking strong, BPA's & then doing our best to fill the roles with existing talent, accountability & good coaching.  If it boils down to two guys who are well thought of, and one fills a need over the other, then fine.  The Molden picks is not my favorite but the guy has some game & instincts to work with, but like FalconFan13, i prefer someone like Cisco or Holland here.  But I def don't take myself too seriously so there's that.

I am also not in disagreement that the first round is more stacked with offensive talent than it is with defensive talent.  It's not a conspiracy that this seems to be the case,  because there seems to be overall agreement on most everyone's big boards.  

Having said that, could be when it shakes out 3 years from now, a few defenders will rise & a few offensive players will fall.  But overall, there is no reason to get all butt hurt because your favorite player isn't necessarily listed at the top of everyone's draft board... 

There isn't one guy on this board who is significantly more qualified at these assessments than anyone else.  We all know that even in the professional personnel ranks, this **** is never a perfect science.  You study the player's game from all sides including his film, background, athleticism, speed, size, smarts, instincts, feet, technique & character & then use your gut to make a sound judgement based not on fear or what everyone else thinks, but because you've done your homework.  

Come draft day, it's amazing just how often you see a team draft a guy much higher then what the clownshow media thought might happen.  The people making the decisions in the war room are not the same pundits you see stroking you for clicks either.

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10 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

Not going to lie ... the guy in me who likes to watch offense would LOOOOOOOOOOVE this draft. 

That said even when I play the sims and draft Pitts at 4 I usually go D heavy for most of the rest of the first 4 rounds.

I know what you mean.  I tend to overdue the defensive DT & Edge defenders to compensate also LMAO!  Also over compensating on the S position as well.  It's like, wow, did I just draft 3 Safeties?? Ha!

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I am team trade back. Even if compensation is not a complete haul. I don't believe taking Pitts (who is an elite prospect) fits our needs in the immediate future. I love the Javonte pick and I love the Molden pick as well.

To me, best case scenario is we trade back and then trade up to get back into the first or trade up to get back in to the 2nd. 

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30 minutes ago, BroadwayBlueBleeder said:

Not sure I understand their maths, if Lawrence is a lock to go #1 how is Wilson getting 98.5% chance at going 2nd?

Yeah I did a double take on that as well.

I think what they mean is that there is a 100 %chance Lawrence will be available at the #1 pick. Just like any other player would be, so this is a redundant statement.

Then apparently in 1.5% of the cases/mocks/maths the Jaguars would have picked Wilson even with Lawrence available to them. So 98.5% chance Wilson will be available for the Jets.

Since in 0% of the cases/mocks/maths/w.e. Fields was picked by either the Jags or the Jets there is a 100% chance he's available at 3.

It just feels like they numbers on something to appear scientific while its completely made up bogus to me.

Edited by EuroFalcon
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