Road to the NFL Draft: Trey Lance

[Sidecar Falcon]

 

[PokerSteve]

We may very well pass on Trey Lance if he is there at #4, but the temptation to grab him will probably be unbelievably strong. The guy has the Right Stuff to be a phenomenal QB in the NFL.

[Sidecar Falcon]

8 minutes ago, PokerSteve said:

We may very well pass on Trey Lance if he is there at #4, but the temptation to grab him will probably be unbelievably strong. The guy has the Right Stuff to be a phenomenal QB in the NFL.

I agree. Coming into the offseason I had him ranked behind Lawrence as the best QB prospect. This was primarily because of how physically talented he is. Right now I have Wilson/Lance as 2A and 2B. His biggest knock is his rawness. He’s definitely a stash then start player. He’s the biggest question mark of the draft, with the highest ceiling than any other QB. Even if we pass on him, I hope he succeeds. 

[celtiksage]

25 minutes ago, PokerSteve said:

We may very well pass on Trey Lance if he is there at #4, but the temptation to grab him will probably be unbelievably strong. The guy has the Right Stuff to be a phenomenal QB in the NFL.

I agree with that. Same with Fields if he's there.

Lance (and QB in general) is my least favorite option at 4, but you never know what will happen from game to game, month to month, year to year.

I'm not going to be mad if they do it. I'm confident in our staff to teach and groom and mentor all our guys. And if they think someone is it at 4, then I'll believe they are right. Of course, I say that now. Then watch me blow up when I think they reach for someone.

[PokerSteve]

3 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I agree. Coming into the offseason I had him ranked behind Lawrence as the best QB prospect. This was primarily because of how physically talented he is. Right now I have Wilson/Lance as 2A and 2B. His biggest knock is his rawness. He’s definitely a stash then start player. He’s the biggest question mark of the draft, with the highest ceiling than any other QB. Even if we pass on him, I hope he succeeds. 

Same. I'll be rooting for him where ever he winds up. Very likable kid with great raw talent, and he's also got his head on straight.

[Cole World]

My guy

[Beef]

12 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I agree. Coming into the offseason I had him ranked behind Lawrence as the best QB prospect. This was primarily because of how physically talented he is. Right now I have Wilson/Lance as 2A and 2B. His biggest knock is his rawness. He’s definitely a stash then start player. He’s the biggest question mark of the draft, with the highest ceiling than any other QB. Even if we pass on him, I hope he succeeds. 

This is nothing but your stary-eyed opinion.

The chances of him being successful in the NFL are in the single digits, as with all non-power 5 QB prospects who have proven that stat year over year for decades.

Edited April 17, 2021 by Beef

[celtiksage]

1 minute ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I agree. Coming into the offseason I had him ranked behind Lawrence as the best QB prospect. This was primarily because of how physically talented he is. Right now I have Wilson/Lance as 2A and 2B. His biggest knock is his rawness. He’s definitely a stash then start player. He’s the biggest question mark of the draft, with the highest ceiling than any other QB. Even if we pass on him, I hope he succeeds. 

Here's the thing about ceilings: haha I don't believe in ceilings. 

Ceilings are a figment of the imagination. There's no such thing. Sure a guy can get a little better maybe, but if it was me and I'm drafting a guy, I'm not thinking "oh imagine what he can become."

Tape tells it all (and I'm not talking highlight videos, but the videos pro scouts and analysts watch).

If I watch a player perform at a high level and he has amazing games, that is his ceiling. He might not do it every week, but he has that potential. That's his ceiling. I am not looking at him and thinking he can come to the NFL and be even better. That is why so many underperform, and we are always disappointed in players like Beasley, etc. What I'm thinking and asking myself is can he come to the NFL at a much higher level and do the same thing I saw him do when he was at his best in college. Obviously, like a father figure type, you expect maturity, and growth, but the physical skills I see a guy perform at 21 aren't going to get crazy better with age. Sure, with knowledge and refinement, they can play at their highest level (which is what I already saw them do previously or I'm not interested).

BLUF: We overvalue players by projecting some measure of near super-human capacity into their game. What you see at their best is the most you can expect. Anything better is just gravy.

[Sidecar Falcon]

Just now, Beef said:

This is nothing but your stary-eyed opinion.

That chances of him being successful in the NFL are in the single digits, as with all non-power 5 QB prospects who have proven that stat year over year for decades.

I mean...yeah it’s my opinion. Not sure where I stated otherwise. Lmfao

[Beef]

1 minute ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I mean...yeah it’s my opinion. Not sure where I stated otherwise. Lmfao

Oh I don’t know. Maybe the definitive absolute statements that he IS this or IS that, while not making any disclaimer of opinion or chance of being wrong? 🤷‍♂️

[Sidecar Falcon]

19 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I agree. Coming into the offseason I had him ranked behind Lawrence as the best QB prospect. This was primarily because of how physically talented he is. Right now I have Wilson/Lance as 2A and 2B. His biggest knock is his rawness. He’s definitely a stash then start player. He’s the biggest question mark of the draft, with the highest ceiling than any other QB. Even if we pass on him, I hope he succeeds. 

 

2 minutes ago, Beef said:

Oh I don’t know. Maybe the definitive absolute statements that he IS this or IS that, while not making any disclaimer of opinion or chance of being wrong? 🤷‍♂️

 

[falcons007]

3 minutes ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

All the more reason a QB needy team has that same temptation. The more the merrier, I'm looking for the biggest draft haul we can personally get. This should be the draft that builds our team for the next 5 years or so.

But I thought no one was willing to give picks for Falcons for Lance or fields. If these QB are so great, QB needy teams should be giving up multiple picks from next three drafts. 

[The Architect]

He's one of my favorite prospects to watch. Gonna be interesting to see where he goes and how he turns out.

[Beef]

24 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I agree. Coming into the offseason I had him ranked behind Lawrence as the best QB prospect. This was primarily because of how physically talented he is. Right now I have Wilson/Lance as 2A and 2B. His biggest knock is his rawness. He’s definitely a stash then start player. He’s the biggest question mark of the draft, with the highest ceiling than any other QB. Even if we pass on him, I hope he succeeds. 

Again, definitive statement that he has the highest ceiling of any other QB.

Just an asinine opinion.  Ian Book could have a higher ceiling for all anyone knows.

History tells us non-power 5 QB’s end up with low ceilings and bust out at a HUGE percentage.

[celtiksage]

4 minutes ago, WhenFalconsWin said:

All the more reason a QB needy team has that same temptation. The more the merrier, I'm looking for the biggest draft haul we can personally get. This should be the draft that builds our team for the next 5 years or so.

 

1 minute ago, falcons007 said:

But I thought no one was willing to give picks for Falcons for Lance or fields. If these QB are so great, QB needy teams should be giving up multiple picks from next three drafts. 

I think we're all hoping for this huge draft haul. Maybe a little unrealistically even. Sure, there's interest, but I think we have to look at it from another team's perspective. Would I give up 3 first rounders and 2 picks in early rounds to move up from 15 to 4. No way. Would I do it from 21, probably not. Even if I was only needing a QB (who 99% of the time isn't going to come in as a rookie and take me to the promised land).

I value my team just as much as the team I'm trying to trade up with, and I have projected stars who will be free agents that I need to replace. I'm probably not doing that in the later rounds of the draft.

Obviously, there's various philosophies, whether you build through the draft or rely heavily on free agents (highly dangerous and expensive), but when was the last time we saw someone give up a haul. It doesn't happen every year, and usually not multiple times in the same year. (Most GMs are probably saying "dayum, they're crazy). Hahaha

The offers I expect anywhere in the top 17 or 20 is next year's 1st and 2nd and this year's first and 2nd (if in the later range) or next year's 1st and this year's 2nd and 3rd (if in the 9-14 range). Is that enough for me to gamble or should I take the guy I expect is a higher probability of success at 4? 

All I know is I'm glad it ain't me making that decision (unless someone does offer me a haul, then it's easy peasy).

Just don't expect every team out there to offer us their future at the expense of their current situation. I'm already imagining the board "why didn't we trade down and get the next two year's drafts from someone?"

I hope it happens too, but feel like it's a rare occasion. 

 

[Sidecar Falcon]

7 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

Here's the thing about ceilings: haha I don't believe in ceilings. 

Ceilings are a figment of the imagination. There's no such thing. Sure a guy can get a little better maybe, but if it was me and I'm drafting a guy, I'm not thinking "oh imagine what he can become."

Tape tells it all (and I'm not talking highlight videos, but the videos pro scouts and analysts watch).

If I watch a player perform at a high level and he has amazing games, that is his ceiling. He might not do it every week, but he has that potential. That's his ceiling. I am not looking at him and thinking he can come to the NFL and be even better. That is why so many underperform, and we are always disappointed in players like Beasley, etc. What I'm thinking and asking myself is can he come to the NFL at a much higher level and do the same thing I saw him do when he was at his best in college. Obviously, like a father figure type, you expect maturity, and growth, but the physical skills I see a guy perform at 21 aren't going to get crazy better with age. Sure, with knowledge and refinement, they can play at their highest level (which is what I already saw them do previously or I'm not interested).

BLUF: We overvalue players by projecting some measure of near super-human capacity into their game. What you see at their best is the most you can expect. Anything better is just gravy.

I can kind of get what you mean. I think the ceiling argument is used more as an expectation. Sure, we all hope a player will be *insert hall of famer* when reality he’ll be closer to an All-Pro player.  I don’t think anyone is going to stated that any of these QBs coming out of the draft are Peyton Manning. If I had to gauge where Lance’s career may lead, I think he has the potential to be as good as Josh Allen, or Andrew Luck depending on scheme, with a floor of Mitch Trubisky. So there’s quite a discrepancy, which is why I would be hesitant to draft him at 4.

I disagree with the “tape tells all” assertion. There are more factors to take into consideration (scheme, surrounding players, utilization, etc.). If you go by purely what the tape says you wind up with scenarios like we did with Fowler.

I believe that the further the league leans towards the offense, the more that physical ability will weighted more heavily. Mainly because they are protected to the nth degree. The pocket QB will never go extinct, but the athletic aspect will be valued nearly as much, if not more so in many cases. Just from a scheme versatility standpoint. 

[falcons007]

2 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

 

I think we're all hoping for this huge draft haul. Maybe a little unrealistically even. Sure, there's interest, but I think we have to look at it from another team's perspective. Would I give up 3 first rounders and 2 picks in early rounds to move up from 15 to 4. No way. Would I do it from 21, probably not. Even if I was only needing a QB (who 99% of the time isn't going to come in as a rookie and take me to the promised land).

I value my team just as much as the team I'm trying to trade up with, and I have projected stars who will be free agents that I need to replace. I'm probably not doing that in the later rounds of the draft.

Obviously, there's various philosophies, whether you build through the draft or rely heavily on free agents (highly dangerous and expensive), but when was the last time we saw someone give up a haul. It doesn't happen every year, and usually not multiple times in the same year. (Most GMs are probably saying "dayum, they're crazy). Hahaha

The offers I expect anywhere in the top 17 or 20 is next year's 1st and 2nd and this year's first and 2nd (if in the later range) or next year's 1st and this year's 2nd and 3rd (if in the 9-14 range). Is that enough for me to gamble or should I take the guy I expect is a higher probability of success at 4? 

All I know is I'm glad it ain't me making that decision (unless someone does offer me a haul, then it's easy peasy).

Just don't expect every team out there to offer us their future at the expense of their current situation. I'm already imagining the board "why didn't we trade down and get the next two year's drafts from someone?"

I hope it happens too, but feel like it's a rare occasion. 

 

If these are can’t miss QB you need to take at 4. Why aren’t other teams seeing them as generational 10-15 year Franchise QBs. You can’t say there won’t be another chance to draft a generational QB and then argue other teams don’t see them as such. You know there would be at least  5-10 teams who would grab a generational 10-15 year old franchise QB. I know I am generous with 5-10, it’s more like half of the NFL. 

[celtiksage]

2 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I can kind of get what you mean. I think the ceiling argument is used more as an expectation. Sure, we all hope a player will be *insert hall of famer* when reality he’ll be closer to an All-Pro player.  I don’t think anyone is going to stated that any of these QBs coming out of the draft are Peyton Manning. If I had to gauge where Lance’s career may lead, I think he has the potential to be as good as Josh Allen, or Andrew Luck depending on scheme, with a floor of Mitch Trubisky. So there’s quite a discrepancy, which is why I would be hesitant to draft him at 4.

I disagree with the “tape tells all” assertion. There are more factors to take into consideration (scheme, surrounding players, utilization, etc.). If you go by purely what the tape says you wind up with scenarios like we did with Fowler.

I believe that the further the league leans towards the offense, the more that physical ability will weighted more heavily. Mainly because they are protected to the nth degree. The pocket QB will never go extinct, but the athletic aspect will be valued nearly as much, if not more so in many cases. Just from a scheme versatility standpoint. 

Ah good point on scheme. We saw it with Tannehill and Henry. So yes, in that respect, you could see a better fit in a player and put him in a situation to be better. At the college level though against much inferior talent than you see in the NFL, that scheme change progression would be less substantial. I can see it being much more substantial in free agents.

[Sidecar Falcon]

37 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I agree. Coming into the offseason I had him ranked behind Lawrence as the best QB prospect. This was primarily because of how physically talented he is. Right now I have Wilson/Lance as 2A and 2B. His biggest knock is his rawness. He’s definitely a stash then start player. He’s the biggest question mark of the draft, with the highest ceiling than any other QB. Even if we pass on him, I hope he succeeds. 

 

5 minutes ago, Beef said:

Again, definitive statement that he has the highest ceiling of any other QB.

Just an asinine opinion.  Ian Book could have a higher ceiling for all anyone knows.

History tells us non-power 5 QB’s end up with low ceilings and bust out at a HUGE percentage.

Again, two lines where I clearly state that these are my opinions. You’re either attempting to create a false narrative, or your reading comprehension skills are lacking. Trying to divert the subject to Ian Book isn’t going to work since he was never brought up in the conversation as comparison; nor did I state that he wouldn’t bust, which is why I said he was a huge question mark. 

[Kaptain Krazy]

Not predicting ATL takes him at #4, but there is a parallel.  "The draft starts with Atlanta" speaks to the influence Atlanta’s decision influences so much that occurs afterwards. "Which team wants Lance and what will they do to get him" will also have a significant impact on the early part of the 1st round. 

[Sidecar Falcon]

8 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

Ah good point on scheme. We saw it with Tannehill and Henry. So yes, in that respect, you could see a better fit in a player and put him in a situation to be better. At the college level though against much inferior talent than you see in the NFL, that scheme change progression would be less substantial. I can see it being much more substantial in free agents.

I think Tannehill wasn’t being properly utilized as well. He had Gase and Philbin as his HCs. Anyone would look like $hit. Which is why the Darnold pickup may cause us so many headaches in the future. I left out coaching which is a huge factor as well.
 

I also think that the jump from college coaches to NFL coaches is as huge as the leap from college play to NFL play. So players can take huge leaps and bounds depending on who surrounds them off the field. There’s so much to take into consideration. What intrigues me the most about Lance is if Smith can take Tannehill and turn him into what he is now, imagine what he could do with Lance with 2 years with Ryan helping him out. I doubt we’ll draft him but that is hard to bat an eye at. 

[youngbloodz]

33 minutes ago, Beef said:

Oh I don’t know. Maybe the definitive absolute statements that he IS this or IS that, while not making any disclaimer of opinion or chance of being wrong? 🤷‍♂️

Your reading comprehension level is so low you need to be told someone is stating an opinion about a **** NFL draft prospect? 

[youngbloodz]

10 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

 

Again, two lines where I clearly state that these are my opinions. You’re either attempting to create a false narrative, or your reading comprehension skills are lacking. Trying to divert the subject to Ian Book isn’t going to work since he was never brought up in the conversation as comparison; nor did I state that he wouldn’t bust, which is why I said he was a huge question mark. 

I vote reading comprehension level lacking 

[celtiksage]

8 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I think Tannehill wasn’t being properly utilized as well. He had Gase and Philbin as his HCs. Anyone would look like $hit. Which is why the Darnold pickup may cause us so many headaches in the future. I left out coaching which is a huge factor as well.
 

I also think that the jump from college coaches to NFL coaches is as huge as the leap from college play to NFL play. So players can take huge leaps and bounds depending on who surrounds them off the field. There’s so much to take into consideration. What intrigues me the most about Lance is if Smith can take Tannehill and turn him into what he is now, imagine what he could do with Lance with 2 years with Ryan helping him out. I doubt we’ll draft him but that is hard to bat an eye at. 

Agreed and same goes for any QB we take at 4. That's why I won't be mad if they do it. If DQ had done it, I would've screamed for his head. I never considered too many of that staff to be highly intelligent or good teachers. Maybe Raheem, but I wasn't sure.

They relied on motivational aspects 

[youngbloodz]

Trey Lance ceiling is very high. Highest of all the QBs even Lawrence. But his bust factor is the highest too. Will be interesting to see what he does. And yes everything I said is my opinion on Trey Lance the football player