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4th QB Taken Each Draft Class


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9 minutes ago, Foo Falcons said:

What do you mean 5 for 5? I'm not putting money down on each QB taking a team to the promise land. I'm saying each has definite potential to be a franchise QB. Players are built up leading up to the draft every year, I get that. No argument there. QBs it happens to all the same. But these top 5 guys have significant "upside" (whoo hoo watch out) and it's at an unprecedented level opposed to most drafts. 

Are there 5 QBs being talked about going in the top 10 year in and year out? No, there's not. This is a special year at QB. Don't kid yourself 

 

6 minutes ago, athell said:

It's not.  It's only special because the media is tripping over their ***** this year pimping them.

But if you get your info from Andrew Siciliano this makes all the sense in the world.

https://walterfootball.com/nfldraft/ProspectPositionalRankingHistory/9461
 

Zach Wilson was ranked 16th QB last year. People would have laughed if he was projected to go second over all pick. 

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The fact that this board thinks that every qb in this class is going to hit is flat out comical at best. 

Heard this on a podcast, and wanted to look into the names...not great.  A lot of people are saying this QB class is "different", but we have heard that before.  Just thought it was an interesting way

Upside is a worthless thing to chase.  You get burned by chasing someones upside far more often than they ever reach that “upside”.   You also don’t draft someone top 5 on “upside”, you draft someo

1 minute ago, athell said:

Every qb has upside lol.  Every nfl prospect has upside.  Upside means nothing.

Upside means nothing... really? These are 20-22 years Olds for godsakes. Upside is EVERYTHING. I mean the owner is spending millions of dollars on them. They've gotta have some Upside right?

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16 minutes ago, athell said:

It's literally every year.  It's the same crap different day.  Jones and Lance weren't even first round picks months ago lol but now ITS THE BEST 5 EVER!!!

How many hours of film are you into each prospect?  And how does that compare to precious years?

Ignorant?  Lmao.  Ignorant is thinking this class will be 5 for 5.  🤣🤣🤣

 

To be honest, there was talk about Trey Lance as a 1st round pick before the Covid stricken college season though.

 

People were scratching their heads at why North Dakota State just agreed to play one game to showcase Lance instead of an entire season.

 

Lance just didn't come out of nowhere like Mac Jones did last season.

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1 minute ago, Foo Falcons said:

Upside means nothing... really? These are 20-22 years Olds for godsakes. Upside is EVERYTHING. I mean the owner is spending millions of dollars on them. They've gotta have some Upside right?

Everyone has upside.  Upside doesn't separate players.  Every year people bust out of the league with immense upside.  Upside only gets you so far.

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1 minute ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

To be honest, there was talk about Trey Lance as a 1st round pick before the Covid stricken college season though.

 

People were scratching their heads at why North Dakota State just agreed to play one game to showcase Lance instead of an entire season.

 

Lance just didn't come out of nowhere like Mac Jones did last season.

Yep.  Jones and Wilson tbh

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3 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

 

https://walterfootball.com/nfldraft/ProspectPositionalRankingHistory/9461
 

Zach Wilson was ranked 16th QB last year. People would have laughed if he was projected to go second over all pick. 

Agreed. This happens all the time. But he made significant improvements after recovering from his shoulder surgery completely. I think the Aaron Rodgers comparisons are a bit much, but he has major upside in the NFL the way its going. 

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3 minutes ago, Foo Falcons said:

Upside means nothing... really? These are 20-22 years Olds for godsakes. Upside is EVERYTHING. I mean the owner is spending millions of dollars on them. They've gotta have some Upside right?

Most QB’s don’t live up to their hype. And this particular class is the most hyped since Luck and RG3. Out of these 5 QB’s, yes, they all have “upside” but ALL of them, yes all of them, including Lawrence, are way overhyped. Out of the 5, it’s very likely only 2, maybe less, will actually have HOF careers. 

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1 minute ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Most QB’s don’t live up to their hype. And this particular class is the most hyped since Luck and RG3. Out of these 5 QB’s, yes, they all have “upside” but ALL of them, yes all of them, including Lawrence, is way overhyped. Out of the 5, it’s very likely only 2, maybe less, will actually have HOF careers. 

 

Even Davis Mills is starting to move up boards as early as really late 1st round by some analysts.

 

Wasn't he like a 4-5th rounder about a month and a half ago?

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6 minutes ago, Foo Falcons said:

Agreed. This happens all the time. But he made significant improvements after recovering from his shoulder surgery completely. I think the Aaron Rodgers comparisons are a bit much, but he has major upside in the NFL the way its going. 

 Dude wasn’t even top 10 QB a year ago. Improvements or not , the hype every year for QB is unbelievable. 

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Just now, JD dirtybird21 said:

Most QB’s don’t live up to their hype. And this particular class is the most hyped since Luck and RG3. Out of these 5 QB’s, yes, they all have “upside” but ALL of them, yes all of them, including Lawrence, is way overhyped. Out of the 5, it’s very likely only 2, maybe less, will actually have HOF careers. 

First statement is true. Maybe they are overhyped. Maybe 2 of 5 are HoFame QBs. But if you're a QB needy team you can't doubt the ability and upside. I'm glad we have the option to pass on them and trust our current QB. We have that option that's better than any other team in our position. 

Can't State enough that I don't want a QB. But I am acknowledging a great QB class. Media hypes everything, but the top QBs this year all have quite a bit of potential to lead a franchise. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm only a man

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1 hour ago, Rings said:

Heard this on a podcast, and wanted to look into the names...not great.  A lot of people are saying this QB class is "different", but we have heard that before.  Just thought it was an interesting way to look at it.  Knowing QBs are likely going 1, 2 & 3 this year, a lot of people think we should go QB @ #4, which would mean we would likely be taking the 4th QB in the draft. 

Here is a list of the fourth QB taken in each draft the last 20 years.  Obviously not all of these were first round picks, but I think it is just further proof that the league still isn't very good at evaluating how QBs translate the NFL.  It's easy to look back and say "but this draft is different", those that have followed the draft long enough and are able to think objectively remember there was a lot of hype out surrounding quite a few of those names prior to those draft classes as well, it's just easy to forget now that we know they aren't good.  Not saying whomever the 4th guy taken will be as bad as this list, but it wouldn't shock me either.

2020: Jordan Love
2019: Drew Lock
2018: Josh Rosen
2017: DeShone Kizer
2016: Christian Hackenburg
2015: Sean Mannion
2014: Derek Carr
2013: Matt Barkley
2012: Brandon Weeden
2011: Christian Ponder
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: Pat White
2008: Chad Henne
2007: John Beck
2006: Kellen Clemens
2005: Charlie Frye
2004: J.P. Losman
2003: Rex Grossman
2002: Josh McCown
2001: Marques Tuiasosopo

 

OUCH!

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1 hour ago, Rings said:

Heard this on a podcast, and wanted to look into the names...not great.  A lot of people are saying this QB class is "different", but we have heard that before.  Just thought it was an interesting way to look at it.  Knowing QBs are likely going 1, 2 & 3 this year, a lot of people think we should go QB @ #4, which would mean we would likely be taking the 4th QB in the draft. 

Here is a list of the fourth QB taken in each draft the last 20 years.  Obviously not all of these were first round picks, but I think it is just further proof that the league still isn't very good at evaluating how QBs translate the NFL.  It's easy to look back and say "but this draft is different", those that have followed the draft long enough and are able to think objectively remember there was a lot of hype out surrounding quite a few of those names prior to those draft classes as well, it's just easy to forget now that we know they aren't good.  Not saying whomever the 4th guy taken will be as bad as this list, but it wouldn't shock me either.

2020: Jordan Love
2019: Drew Lock
2018: Josh Rosen
2017: DeShone Kizer
2016: Christian Hackenburg
2015: Sean Mannion
2014: Derek Carr
2013: Matt Barkley
2012: Brandon Weeden
2011: Christian Ponder
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: Pat White
2008: Chad Henne
2007: John Beck
2006: Kellen Clemens
2005: Charlie Frye
2004: J.P. Losman
2003: Rex Grossman
2002: Josh McCown
2001: Marques Tuiasosopo

 

Meh, this is another piece of historical draft that is flawed when put in the right context.  You can pull out examples like this all you want, but whatever you do in the draft (trade up, stay put or trade down) boils down to picking the right guys.  

Looking only at the past 5 drafts, Jordan Love should be excluded because we don't know what he is yet.  He was not drafted to be a "day 1" starter, so it's unknown whether he is a bust or not.  It's also worth noting that Lamar Jackson was the 5th QB drafted in 2018 and he won an MVP.  Again, you have to pick the right guys.  In 2017, Cleveland traded down with Houston to let them come up for Deshaun Watson and subsequently took Deshone Kizer in round 2 (having extra picks means nothing if you pick the wrong guy).  In 2016, Dak was on the board when Hackenberg was drafted.

I am not a hardcore "we have to take a QB" guy, but I completely understand what Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith are doing if they love a guy and want to take him.

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47 minutes ago, athell said:

It's not.  It's only special because the media is tripping over their ***** this year pimping them.

But if you get your info from Andrew Siciliano this makes all the sense in the world.

Kyle Shanahan just put his job on the line for the 3rd choice at QB but yeah this QB class is OvERaTeD because EsPN. 

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12 minutes ago, Bobby.Digital said:

Kyle Shanahan just put his job on the line for the 3rd choice at QB but yeah this QB class is OvERaTeD because EsPN. 

 

1 minute ago, athell said:

🤣🤣🤣


KS may not have a job if he doesn’t have decent QB. Niners need a game manager and let the defense win the games. his dad bet the house on RG 3 and got fired. 

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5 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

 


KS may not have a job if he doesn’t have decent QB. Niners need a game manager and let the defense win the games. his dad bet the house on RG 3 and got fired. 

Nah man it's automatically gonna work out just like the top 5 qbs automatically gonna be hall of famers because reasons...and coaches and gm egos never get in the way of player eval and every trade up works out because they totally know what they're doing  😄

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13 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

 


KS may not have a job if he doesn’t have decent QB. Niners need a game manager and let the defense win the games. his dad bet the house on RG 3 and got fired. 

 

Actually drafting RG3 wasn't even Mike Shanahan's call.

 

It was Daniel Snyder's. Same with the drafting of Dwayne Haskins under Jay Gruden.

 

RG3 was forced upon Mike Shanahan. Which was why Shanahan drafted Kirk Cousins later that draft and eventually started a QB controversy where Snyder sided with RG3(until he proved he was a bust) and fired Old Man Shanahan.

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