4th QB Taken Each Draft Class

[Rings]

Heard this on a podcast, and wanted to look into the names...not great.  A lot of people are saying this QB class is "different", but we have heard that before.  Just thought it was an interesting way to look at it.  Knowing QBs are likely going 1, 2 & 3 this year, a lot of people think we should go QB @ #4, which would mean we would likely be taking the 4th QB in the draft. 

Here is a list of the fourth QB taken in each draft the last 20 years.  Obviously not all of these were first round picks, but I think it is just further proof that the league still isn't very good at evaluating how QBs translate the NFL.  It's easy to look back and say "but this draft is different", those that have followed the draft long enough and are able to think objectively remember there was a lot of hype out surrounding quite a few of those names prior to those draft classes as well, it's just easy to forget now that we know they aren't good.  Not saying whomever the 4th guy taken will be as bad as this list, but it wouldn't shock me either.

2020: Jordan Love
2019: Drew Lock
2018: Josh Rosen
2017: DeShone Kizer
2016: Christian Hackenburg
2015: Sean Mannion
2014: Derek Carr
2013: Matt Barkley
2012: Brandon Weeden
2011: Christian Ponder
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: Pat White
2008: Chad Henne
2007: John Beck
2006: Kellen Clemens
2005: Charlie Frye
2004: J.P. Losman
2003: Rex Grossman
2002: Josh McCown
2001: Marques Tuiasosopo

 

[FalconFanSince1969]

The fact that this board thinks that every qb in this class is going to hit is flat out comical at best. 

[grandcanyonaz]

Some will get burned and it's just a matter of how badly and how long to recover. It happens every year.

[A Dog Named Brian]

Only one good QB on that list 😂😂😂

[Foo Falcons]

Name another draft class that had a "4th" best QB with as much upside and league wide recognition as this year in Lance, Fields, and Jones... You can't. 

This year is a rare year with five QBs that genuinely have the ability to be good/great without much doubt. It doesn't happen often.. Hence the argument for drafting a QB at #4.

I'd rather a non-QB at #4 or a trade back but if we do draft one, I can't argue it too much and would be excited for the future with hopes our GM knows what he's doing. I mean I could argue it, but what would be the point? It's all about accepting it after the pick is made and being as optimistic as you can be.

[DonOfThemBirds]

 

It's been years, but I still can't believe that Dan Marino was the 6th QB taken in that 83' draft.

[Rings]

8 minutes ago, Foo Falcons said:

Name another draft class that had a "4th" best QB with as much upside and league wide recognition as this year in Lance, Fields, and Jones... You can't. 

This year is a rare year with five QBs that genuinely have the ability to be good/great without much doubt. It doesn't happen often.. Hence the argument for drafting a QB at #4.

I'd rather a non-QB at #4 or a trade back but if we do draft one, I can't argue it too much and would be excited for the future with hopes our GM knows what he's doing. I mean I could argue it, but what would be the point? It's all about accepting it after the pick is made and being as optimistic as you can be.

Upside is a worthless thing to chase.  You get burned by chasing someones upside far more often than they ever reach that “upside”.  

You also don’t draft someone top 5 on “upside”, you draft someone there on production, traits, football IQ, proven play against NFL level competition, being plug and play to make an impact day one.  Lance is purely a projection and hope he reaches his ceiling.  

I’ll go on record saying we will look back at this class in a year or two similar to 2018 and realize it was over hyped because there were no defensive players worthy and mixed opinion on who QBs 3-5 are.  Of the five, there will be more busts than hits.  You say there isn’t much doubt they will all be good, I’d say there is plenty of doubt for all three.

[falcons007]

19 minutes ago, Foo Falcons said:

Name another draft class that had a "4th" best QB with as much upside and league wide recognition as this year in Lance, Fields, and Jones... You can't. 

This year is a rare year with five QBs that genuinely have the ability to be good/great without much doubt. It doesn't happen often.. Hence the argument for drafting a QB at #4.

I'd rather a non-QB at #4 or a trade back but if we do draft one, I can't argue it too much and would be excited for the future with hopes our GM knows what he's doing. I mean I could argue it, but what would be the point? It's all about accepting it after the pick is made and being as optimistic as you can be.

You forgot the purple. 

[Lethal]

22 minutes ago, Foo Falcons said:

Name another draft class that had a "4th" best QB with as much upside and league wide recognition as this year in Lance, Fields, and Jones... You can't. 

This year is a rare year with five QBs that genuinely have the ability to be good/great without much doubt. It doesn't happen often.. Hence the argument for drafting a QB at #4.

I'd rather a non-QB at #4 or a trade back but if we do draft one, I can't argue it too much and would be excited for the future with hopes our GM knows what he's doing. I mean I could argue it, but what would be the point? It's all about accepting it after the pick is made and being as optimistic as you can be.

Lol

Every year it's "THE BEST CLASS EVER".  Turn off ESPN.

[falcons007]

But but we can’t miss top 4. To add more color to OP

2011: Ponder was the fourth QB drafted at 12. Newton, Jake locker, Gabbert and ponder all went in top 12 picks. Only Cam is barely hanging to starting role in the NFL.

2012: First two picks QB picked at top of the draft. Tanny at 8 and Weeden was picked at #22, the puck falcons gave up for Julio. 

[Foo Falcons]

16 minutes ago, Rings said:

Upside is a worthless thing to chase.  You get burned by chasing someones upside far more often than they ever reach that “upside”.  

You also don’t draft someone top 5 on “upside”, you draft someone there on production, traits, football IQ, proven play against NFL level competition, being plug and play to make an impact day one.  Lance is purely a projection and hope he reaches his ceiling.  

I’ll go on record saying we will look back at this class in a year or two similar to 2018 and realize it was over hyped because there were no defensive players worthy and mixed opinion on who QBs 3-5 are.  Of the five, there will be more busts than hits.  You say there isn’t much doubt they will all be good, I’d say there is plenty of doubt for all three.

Upside is with every prospect. Lance certainly doesn't have as much production as most top QBs through the years but his upside IS tantalizing. 

Most QBs don't enter the league and set it on fire. It takes time and commitment. There's no argument there. He seems to be the type that is a great prospect to sit for a year or two.

I'll do the same and go on record saying this will be the best QB draft class in this century, possibly ever.

[Norwood all the way!]

That's quite the list of duds you got there

[falcons007]

6 minutes ago, athell said:

Lol

Every year it's "THE BEST CLASS EVER".  Turn off ESPN.

That’s a lame argument, just say you like a particular player and want the team to draft. 

[Foo Falcons]

5 minutes ago, athell said:

Lol

Every year it's "THE BEST CLASS EVER".  Turn off ESPN.

Don't watch ESPN bud. More of an NFL network guy if that, but I trust the film above all. Don't act like this class compares to others. I'm not banging the table for a QB whatsoever. I want a trade down or non-QB. But to say this is a typical draft at the QB position is ignorant 

[Lethal]

1 minute ago, Foo Falcons said:

Don't watch ESPN bud. More of an NFL network guy if that, but I trust the film above all. Don't act like this class compares to others. I'm not banging the table for a QB whatsoever. I want a trade down or non-QB. But to say this is a typical draft at the QB position is ignorant 

It's literally every year.  It's the same crap different day.  Jones and Lance weren't even first round picks months ago lol but now ITS THE BEST 5 EVER!!!

How many hours of film are you into each prospect?  And how does that compare to precious years?

Ignorant?  Lmao.  Ignorant is thinking this class will be 5 for 5.  🤣🤣🤣

[Lethal]

3 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

That’s a lame argument, just say you like a particular player and want the team to draft. 

I'm ignorant what can I say.  Need to watch more.../squints...NFL Network...

[Spts1]

46 minutes ago, Rings said:

Here is a list of the fourth QB taken in each draft the last 20 years. 

2020: Jordan Love
2019: Drew Lock
2018: Josh Rosen
2017: DeShone Kizer
2016: Christian Hackenburg
2015: Sean Mannion
2014: Derek Carr
2013: Matt Barkley
2012: Brandon Weeden
2011: Christian Ponder
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: Pat White
2008: Chad Henne
2007: John Beck
2006: Kellen Clemens
2005: Charlie Frye
2004: J.P. Losman
2003: Rex Grossman
2002: Josh McCown
2001: Marques Tuiasosopo

 

2021: Mac Jones 

[atljbo]

As a guy who wants to tradeback for a haul of p[icks, I dont think you can look at this draft class this simply.

I dont think this is a normal draft class QB wise thats why teams are willing to trade ALOT.... Thats why i hate when ppl say "would you trade up for the 4th  or 3rd QB" .... I think the 3rd or 4th QB in this class could be the number 1 or 2 guy next year or in another draft class.

To me all 4 has high upside with a good playcaller and scheme but all 4 also has bust if they fall in the wrong situation.

 

The main reason i want to trade back is because we have a QB we can win with and with the QB class being so good we can rob a team..... Set up a nice team rebuild with 5 1st round picks in the next 3 years.....Cheap labor (not counting the 2nd and 3rd round picks)

 

[Dem Birds]

39 minutes ago, A Dog Named Brian said:

Only one good QB on that list 😂😂😂

And I said before that draft he would be the best one in it. I'm convinced he only dropped because of his brother

[Foo Falcons]

Just now, athell said:

It's literally every year.  It's the same crap different day.  Jones and Lance weren't even first round picks months ago lol but now ITS THE BEST 5 EVER!!!

How many hours of film are you into each prospect?  And how does that compare to precious years?

Ignorant?  Lmao.  Ignorant is thinking this class will be 5 for 5.  🤣🤣🤣

What do you mean 5 for 5? I'm not putting money down on each QB taking a team to the promise land. I'm saying each has definite potential to be a franchise QB. Players are built up leading up to the draft every year, I get that. No argument there. QBs it happens to all the same. But these top 5 guys have significant "upside" (whoo hoo watch out) and it's at an unprecedented level opposed to most drafts. 

Are there 5 QBs being talked about going in the top 10 year in and year out? No, there's not. This is a special year at QB. Don't kid yourself 

[Bobby Biskie]

I think Wilson will be the bust of this draft. I think Mac Jones will be a serviceable starter at best. I think Lawrence may not be as good as everyone think especially going to the Jags

Edited April 15, 2021 by Bobby Biskie

[Lethal]

1 minute ago, Foo Falcons said:

What do you mean 5 for 5? I'm not putting money down on each QB taking a team to the promise land. I'm saying each has definite potential to be a franchise QB. Players are built up leading up to the draft every year, I get that. No argument there. QBs it happens to all the same. But these top 5 guys have significant "upside" (whoo hoo watch out) and it's at an unprecedented level opposed to most drafts. 

Are there 5 QBs being talked about going in the top 10 year in and year out? No, there's not. This is a special year at QB. Don't kid yourself 

It's not.  It's only special because the media is tripping over their ***** this year pimping them.

But if you get your info from Andrew Siciliano this makes all the sense in the world.

[Moist Words]

That's not comparing apples to apples though. Quite a few widely accepted by NFL scouts 2nd and 3rd round (which is where they were drafted) prospects are being compared to what are widely considered 1st round prospects here.

 

You could do this with any particularly loaded position in any draft and it would turn out like this. First rounders are like what..... 50% success rate. Throwing in some weak drafts at (name the position) would completely skew the data.

[Foo Falcons]

1 minute ago, athell said:

It's not.  It's only special because the media is tripping over their ***** this year pimping them.

But if you get your info from Andrew Siciliano this makes all the sense in the world.

I don't care about the media man, I really don't. I watch film. Mack Jones I can understand an argument against but the other four I can't. They have significant upside in the NFL. 

This likely is a new wave of QBs in the league and it's more exciting than anything. If we get one, why not. If not, let's build up this team to make a run with Matt Ryan (which I'm all for). 

[Lethal]

1 minute ago, Foo Falcons said:

I don't care about the media man, I really don't. I watch film. Mack Jones I can understand an argument against but the other four I can't. They have significant upside in the NFL. 

This likely is a new wave of QBs in the league and it's more exciting than anything. If we get one, why not. If not, let's build up this team to make a run with Matt Ryan (which I'm all for). 

Every qb has upside lol.  Every nfl prospect has upside.  Upside means nothing.