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2020 1st RD picks Grades


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So looking through this video, I was really intrigued looking at some the grades and stats he gave these rookies, especially to the ones I remember alot of you guys wanted us to get.  I really only wanted to post this video to ask everyone who they wanted us to draft and how they think that player turned out, but this was before he spoke on to AJ Terrell in the video. Now I feel bias because Im a Falcons fan and the stats he used felt out of context. 

For 1, he said Terrell gave up 900 something yards on 77 attempts. And that CJ Henderson graded better because he gave up just 400+. But when you take in consideration CJ only played 8 games to AJ's 14, CJ was on a verge of giving up way more yards. Plus the fact that Jacksonvilles run defense was so trash giving up 23 TDs to our 15, what would be the point of even throwing the ball if your goin to let teams run all over you. But its not like their passing defense was good to where teams had to try to run. They gave up 34 passing TDs (same as us) with CJ on the field or not. Another cool little stat I just seen is that CJ allowed 4 TDs in 8 games while Terrell only gave up 6 TDs while playing 6 more games. 

Sorry for my little rant, because I do want to know what everyone wanted the original 1st rd pick to be. I wanted Isaiah Simmons but I was cool with getting Terrell. (P.S. our defense gave up more than 24 points in only 7 games last year, as bad they seemed they held alot of teams to like 17 or 23. And alot of the games that did go over 24 it happened in 4th quarter collapses. Here's to Pees fixing that problem. We have the pieces. Need the mentality. 

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With the Henderson/Terrell conversation, you've touched on something that's becoming more prominent or at least more readily apparent.

People too often form their analysis around their opinions rather than the other way around.

I almost mentioned this in the latest Justin Fields thread. ESPN scouts looked at every throw the top QBs made in college. Mac Jones scored extremely high, while Fields was middle of the pack. Then, a second analyst did the same scouting and found that Fields was better.

Even with something as simple as throw accuracy, there's nuance between what someone considers an accurate throw one day vs. the next.

Similarly, recency bias comes into play. If this person favored Henderson before the draft, they'll subconsciously favor him more when re-grading the draft. It's almost unavoidable human behavior.

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3 hours ago, jidady said:

With the Henderson/Terrell conversation, you've touched on something that's becoming more prominent or at least more readily apparent.

People too often form their analysis around their opinions rather than the other way around.

I almost mentioned this in the latest Justin Fields thread. ESPN scouts looked at every throw the top QBs made in college. Mac Jones scored extremely high, while Fields was middle of the pack. Then, a second analyst did the same scouting and found that Fields was better.

Even with something as simple as throw accuracy, there's nuance between what someone considers an accurate throw one day vs. the next.

Similarly, recency bias comes into play. If this person favored Henderson before the draft, they'll subconsciously favor him more when re-grading the draft. It's almost unavoidable human behavior.

Everyones interpretation are different, even with stats. Seen guys on youtube arguing about Julio not going to the HOF because TO didnt go. 

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Terrell is very hard to grade for his rookie year.  I don't think he had the great season many on here do, but I think it's better than D-.

We'll know a lot more this year, obviously.  Hopefully we do more press, and we teach people to turn their heads.

As for who I wanted...most of the guys I was excited about were gone by the time we picked.  I wanted Wirfs as he started dropping, would have taken Kinlaw if he'd dropped...knew there was risk but there was big upside.

With who was left I was for Ceedee.  Not because of need but because it seemed like he was far and away BPA at that point.

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4 hours ago, Mister pudding said:

Actually, CJ gave up 443 yards in 8 games. All things being equal, that equates to 775.25 yards in 14 games

Games don’t mean much. How many snaps are important. 
AJ played 607 snaps in coverage compared to 270 snaps by CJ. 

If CJ had played 607 snaps and gave up same Yards/snap as 270 snaps, he would have given up 995 Yards and 10 TD. 
 

Just like most rookies AJ had bumps along the way but he also had 18 stops in passing game tackles. 

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11 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Games don’t mean much. How many snaps are important. 
AJ played 607 snaps in coverage compared to 270 snaps by CJ. 

If CJ had played 607 snaps and gave up same Yards/snap as 270 snaps, he would have given up 995 Yards and 10 TD. 
 

Just like most rookies AJ had bumps along the way but he also had 18 stops in passing game tackles. 

Was going to say exactly this.  

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