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Which direction would give more wins this year?


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This is about an 7-9 to 8-8 team with last year's players.  We hope new coaches add a couple additional wins.

But which side of the ball would lead to more wins this year?  I tend to look and think we really need to beef up the secondary, and it's way past time to have a legit defense.  On the other hand, how many starters do we think we'll get and how much are they likely to impact the win total year 1 or year 2?

Imagine both scenarios with no option to trade back.

Option 1 we take Kyle Pitts (or Chase), the best OG/OC available in the 2nd, the best RB available in the 3rd and then all defensive players with upside.  

Option 2 we take Surtain or Parsons, best safety available in the 2nd, best safety or edge available in the 3rd.

Which leads to more wins?

It seems hard to believe that in option 1 we'd have anything other than a top 5 offense.  If defense can be schemed to just not be horrible, a top 5 offense with a mediocre defense is a playoff team.

Now for option 2.  CB, safety, and edge are lower hit rates than OG, RB etc.  And though we have talent on D, it's unlikely they come together early...instead of being the 22nd worst defense, maybe we're 17th.  Does that buy us many wins?

It looks like more wins would be had by fortifying the offense and trying to coach up an aggressive D.  And then using hopefully extra cap next year to be a little more active in FA and focus D.  None of this would be the case if our DE picks had panned out over the years.

But this is where we are...which route do you think leads to a better team next season?

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A lot of you falcon naysayers are going to be shocked. You still don’t realize just how bad Quinn/Koetter were for this team. 

I think do not force defense if it's not there. There's still plenty of mid level vets available in free agency. We still have avenues of creating a little cap space

This is a 10 win team with AS calling plays. I don’t think option 1 or 2 matters that much. 

32 minutes ago, abcranford2 said:

say...draft a Kyle Pitts then go defense

if we're assuming we stay at 4 this is absolutely it. pitts, then best safety in 2nd round, and best edge/safety in the third.

if we trade down, surtain/parsons, best safety, best edge/safety, then rb's.

of OP's 2 options tho, i'm going option 1. i think pees can keep our defense at least semi-respectable enough to win games with that offense we'd have.

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53 minutes ago, abcranford2 said:

i'd prefer a combination of the two

So that makes sense, but do you run the risk of not having either side be good enough?

I was figuring with a top TE, top OG (which 2nd round normally has), and mid round RB we've probably done what we can do for the offense.

If we skip that RB and OG, then there's a higher chance our OL doesn't perform, negating that TE.

I mean this is the whole reason I want to trade down, because I think we need 3 players in the defensive secondary before round 3, and a couple of offensive guys.  But without trade down, it's an interesting question I think.

I might lean toward a TE then playmaking safety then OG.  If we could have any turnover guy on D it would help.

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6 minutes ago, PointSwayzee said:

I see 6-7 wins tops, from where I'm sitting. That's 2-3 wins more b/c of AS. This roster is worse than last seasons roster. Still have a country mile to get back to break even on that. 

We are 7 win team with out DQ team losing 99% win probablity games. It needs 28-3 stupidity to lose those games. 

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It's a tough decision and you don't know for certain which of the two options will actually produce more wins. As tempting as it is to go with Option 1 and have the 2016 Buzz Saw offense Part Deux with Pitts, Option 2 giving more help to our D is better short and long-term.

A major persuader is getting Parsons, who I think could become the leader of the D, getting needed safety help and getting an Edge no later than top of the 3rd. We have a real good DC now, let's give him enough to work with to bring the D more up to the level of the offense.

For me Option 2 means being able to get more pressure on the other team's offense on 3rd downs and forcing the QB to hold on to the ball or make a bad throw. If our D continues to suck, our high-powered offense will spend a lot of time stuck on the sidelines watching.

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3 hours ago, takeitdown said:

This is about an 7-9 to 8-8 team with last year's players.  We hope new coaches add a couple additional wins.

But which side of the ball would lead to more wins this year?  I tend to look and think we really need to beef up the secondary, and it's way past time to have a legit defense.  On the other hand, how many starters do we think we'll get and how much are they likely to impact the win total year 1 or year 2?

Imagine both scenarios with no option to trade back.

Option 1 we take Kyle Pitts (or Chase), the best OG/OC available in the 2nd, the best RB available in the 3rd and then all defensive players with upside.  

Option 2 we take Surtain or Parsons, best safety available in the 2nd, best safety or edge available in the 3rd.

Which leads to more wins?

It seems hard to believe that in option 1 we'd have anything other than a top 5 offense.  If defense can be schemed to just not be horrible, a top 5 offense with a mediocre defense is a playoff team.

Now for option 2.  CB, safety, and edge are lower hit rates than OG, RB etc.  And though we have talent on D, it's unlikely they come together early...instead of being the 22nd worst defense, maybe we're 17th.  Does that buy us many wins?

It looks like more wins would be had by fortifying the offense and trying to coach up an aggressive D.  And then using hopefully extra cap next year to be a little more active in FA and focus D.  None of this would be the case if our DE picks had panned out over the years.

But this is where we are...which route do you think leads to a better team next season?

Rookie additions to defense are almost never immediate impacts.

And look at the moves TF has made in FA.

Moreau and Harris are likely starters and are probably better than any rookie we might draft, at least this year.  Maybe Surtain or Horn could eventually take over outside, but that’s no guarantee.

Do we even know what we have in Hawkins?

Obviously we need depth at safety and future longterm solutions there, so it’s clear we’re drafting at least 1, but probably 2 safeties either way.

Between Terrell, Moreau, Sheffield, Oliver, Williamson, and Hall, I am not sure we even draft a CB, much less one early.

And who’s going to start over Jones and Foye?

Copeland and Mingo are good depth additions. Mingo will get some playtime. Walker looks pretty good too.

So do we need Parsons?  There’s not a hole for him to close and he’s not an immediate upgrade, so I don’t think so.

The interior DL is stacked. Grady, Davison, Cominsky, Davidson, Senat, Slayton... there's no hole or even depth to fill here.

Edge can obviously be upgraded. But who the heck in this draft is that guy? Ojulari, Paye, and Phillips are all meh. Takk had as good of college stats as these guys and look how that turned out. There’s no guaranteed edge prospects like previous years.

 

I’ve seen folks here say they’ll be really upset if we don’t go mostly defense early and rebuild/fix our defense. But we can’t just wish these prospects into existence.

We need to temper expectations on that side of the ball. Hope Davidson balls out now that he’s healthy, and that Moreau, Harris, Bullard, and Mingo help move the needle up out of the bottom half, and guys like Terrell and Hawkins show out, too.

We’re simply not going to be a pressuring sack dominant defense. There’s nobody in the draft that’s going to turn us into that, and nobody on the team currently either.

And with all that, it makes the most sense to load up on weapons and protection for Matt, which this draft is literally overflowing with those things.

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5 minutes ago, Beef said:

Rookie additions to defense are almost never immediate impacts.

And look at the moves TF has made in FA.

Moreau and Harris are likely starters and are probably better than any rookie we might draft, at least this year.  Maybe Surtain or Horn could eventually take over outside, but that’s no guarantee.

Do we even know what we have in Hawkins?

Obviously we need depth at safety and future longterm solutions there, so it’s clear we’re drafting at least 1, but probably 2 safeties either way.

Between Terrell, Moreau, Sheffield, Oliver, Williamson, and Hall, I am not sure we even draft a CB, much less one early.

And who’s going to start over Jones and Foye?

Copeland and Mingo are good depth additions. Mingo will get some playtime. Walker looks pretty good too.

So do we need Parsons?  There’s not a hole for him to close and he’s not an immediate upgrade, so I don’t think so.

The interior DL is stacked. Grady, Davison, Cominsky, Davidson, Senat, Slayton... there's no hole or even depth to fill here.

Edge can obviously be upgraded. But who the heck in this draft is that guy? Ojulari, Paye, and Phillips are all meh. Takk had as good of college stats as these guys and look how that turned out. There’s no guaranteed edge prospects like previous years.

 

I’ve seen folks here say they’ll be really upset if we don’t go mostly defense early and rebuild/fix our defense. But we can’t just wish these prospects into existence.

We need to temper expectations on that side of the ball. Hope Davidson balls out now that he’s healthy, and that Moreau, Harris, Bullard, and Mingo help move the needle up out of the bottom half, and guys like Terrell and Hawkins show out, too.

We’re simply not going to be a pressuring sack dominant defense. There’s nobody in the draft that’s going to turn us into that, and nobody on the team currently either.

And with all that, it makes the most sense to load up on weapons and protection for Matt, which this draft is literally overflowing with those things.

I understand what your saying rookies on defense really is rare to have a huge impact. But when I see Micah parsons we can slide him to olb in the 3-4 and not only will tht improve pass rush our run defense will be immensely better and he can give us something in coverage even tho he wasn’t asked to do tht much at penn st he’s got the speed. 

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4 hours ago, takeitdown said:

This is about an 7-9 to 8-8 team with last year's players.  We hope new coaches add a couple additional wins.

But which side of the ball would lead to more wins this year?  I tend to look and think we really need to beef up the secondary, and it's way past time to have a legit defense.  On the other hand, how many starters do we think we'll get and how much are they likely to impact the win total year 1 or year 2?

Imagine both scenarios with no option to trade back.

Option 1 we take Kyle Pitts (or Chase), the best OG/OC available in the 2nd, the best RB available in the 3rd and then all defensive players with upside.  

Option 2 we take Surtain or Parsons, best safety available in the 2nd, best safety or edge available in the 3rd.

Which leads to more wins?

It seems hard to believe that in option 1 we'd have anything other than a top 5 offense.  If defense can be schemed to just not be horrible, a top 5 offense with a mediocre defense is a playoff team.

Now for option 2.  CB, safety, and edge are lower hit rates than OG, RB etc.  And though we have talent on D, it's unlikely they come together early...instead of being the 22nd worst defense, maybe we're 17th.  Does that buy us many wins?

It looks like more wins would be had by fortifying the offense and trying to coach up an aggressive D.  And then using hopefully extra cap next year to be a little more active in FA and focus D.  None of this would be the case if our DE picks had panned out over the years.

But this is where we are...which route do you think leads to a better team next season?

This is a 4-12 team with last year’s players no matter how you slice it. Scheme played a role but so did the personnel. Neither option A or B will get us to a winning record without first addressing the fundamental issues with scheme, culture, and depth. We aren’t a season away from being Super Bowl contenders. Next season we can 8-10 win team. So pretty average. 

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We hired an offensive guru as a head coach. So, I'm allowing for an offense-heavy draft, even though that's not where our needs are.

I do agree that Pitts/Chase and an OG would go a long way in setting up the offense. If we could get a rookie RB with upside after that, we're in good shape on that side of the ball for a while.

I still think our defensive needs are too severe to ignore, though. I'm expecting us to pick three times in the top 50. Whether we get the extra pick(s) by trading down or moving Julio remains to be seen.

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53 minutes ago, Falconboi1993 said:

I understand what your saying rookies on defense really is rare to have a huge impact. But when I see Micah parsons we can slide him to olb in the 3-4 and not only will tht improve pass rush our run defense will be immensely better and he can give us something in coverage even tho he wasn’t asked to do tht much at penn st he’s got the speed. 

Foye is a 4.5 guy with good range and pass coverage skills already.  And in this passing league virtually every team is forced to play 3 CB’s for 70%+ of snaps.  Mingo was signed to also play, and Walker looks like another Foye.

Our coverage woes were more because our DB’s either sucked or were rookies, and mostly because we were the worst QB pressuring DL in the league. It wasn’t really because of our LB’s.

Surtain or Horn would be much wiser choices than Parsons where we don’t really have a hole at LB. Sure he’d ultimately be an upgrade in a year or two, but I don’t think it’s really an improvement this year.

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