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List of QBs taken in Top 5 of the draft since 2000 (List from Falcoholic)


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31 minutes ago, dirtybirds233 said:

Semantics, but I wouldn't call Vick a hit. He only played a total of 78 games for the Falcons (including playoffs) with 71 TD's to 52 INT's and 54% completion. I get it, he was lethal with his legs and exciting to watch, but he was simply not a good QB. 

The whole argument is semantics if we're being honest. But still, the Falcons got it right both times. 

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Maybe means no. Top 5 pick should have an expectation of superstar 

Let's go ahead and look at the odds of picking a QB in top 5 and having them be a bust  or disappointments since 2000, shall we?  So everyone name the QB on there who lived up to the pick. I

Wow, this is flat out UGLY!  How many teams burned such a precious resource as a top 5 draft pick on a QB only to be tragically set back years and ultimately colossally disappointed?   Top 5 Q

5 minutes ago, flrybranch said:

Haters gonna hate.

I don't hate Vick, I just said he wasn't a good QB, because he wasn't. Unless you want to argue that 54% completion and averaging about one passing TD per game are the makings of a good QB. 

Again, he was a tremendous athlete, I'm not arguing that. 

 

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1 hour ago, vel said:

Since 2000, the Falcons have taken 2 QBs in the top five and hit on both. 

Vick was a hit? For those who love to watch QBs run he thrilled and dazzled for sure, but I expect more than some whiz bang shaboom running plays on Sports Center from my QB. 

We had 38 wins in 6 seasons under Vick with better defenses than Ryan has had before we all got the Bad Newz. That's an average of 6.33 wins per season for his 6 seasonz here, his completion percentage only 52.2 and his total passing yards only 11,505 for his 6 years, an average of less than 2000 passing yards per season. His QB stats were pedestrian at best.

So with the very 1st pick in the entire draft, we got 6 years of what?  We passed over Drew Brees, LaDanian Tomlinson, Duece McAllister, Rudi Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Chris Chambers, Matt Light, Steve Smith, Richard Seymour, Chris Jenkins,......I mean, there were dozens of players that I would consider hits in the 2001 draft, but Vick is not one of them, not at the #1 pick of entire draft.

It's weird because so many here say you shouldnt draft a RB at any place in round 1 because they only last 6 years, but we drafted Vick #1 overall, he lasted only 6 years and some claim he was a big hit and worth it.

I suppose I just disagree, I would have rather drafted Drew Brees or a host of other players that year.

 

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The flaw in this data set is it appears we are moving to an increasingly accelerated QB draft. In the old days, the #3 QB would get picked around 11th, the #4 QB around 20th, and the #5 QB in the 2nd round. So 1.) the pool of top 5 QBs this year is much bigger than any other year so more rolls of the dice means more chance for success and 2.) the pool of QBs picked outside the top 5 is much shallower than usual where you can't pick Watson, Mahomes, or even Andy Dalton outside the top 5. 

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Just now, gazoo said:

Vick was a hit? For those who love to watch QBs run he thrilled and dazzled for sure, but I expect more than some whiz bang shaboom running plays on Sports Center from my QB. 

We had 38 wins in 6 seasons under Vick with better defenses than Ryan has had before we all got the Bad Newz. That's an average of 6.33 for his 6 seasonz here, his completion percentage only 52.2 and his total passing yards only 11,505 for his 6 years, an average of less than 2000 passing yards per season. His QB stats were pedestrian at best.

So with the very 1st pick in the entire draft, we got 6 years of what?  We passed over Drew Brees, LaDanian Tomlinson, Duece McAllister, Rudi Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, Chris Chambers, Matt Light, Steve Smith, Richard Seymour, Chris Jenkins,......I mean, there were dozens of players that I would consider hits in the 2001 draft, but Vick is not one of them, not at the #1 pick of entire draft.

It's weird because so many here say you shouldnt draft a RB at any place in round 1 because they only last 6 years, but we drafted Vick #1 overall, he lasted only 6 years and some claim he was a big hit and worth it.

I suppose I just disagree, I would have rather drafted Drew Brees or a host of other players that year.

 

That's cool and all. Vick was the correct pick. You can "rather have drafted" all you want. It was 20 years ago and we have hindsight. But they took a franchise defining player at #1. That's what you do. Every time. 

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8 minutes ago, Drunken Minotaur Zebra said:

 

Well at least when you lie to yourself you do it with conviction

He tries to take out his inner misery and unhappiness out on others. I feel sorry for him actually. 

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This is why picking QB is so difficult.

It's so much mental, and that's very hard to gauge, so there is a high bust rate.  And the biggest element is a bust on a QB sets you back.

If a 1st round WR doesn't live up to expectations, he can still get 700 yards per season and you have other WR's you surround him with.  It doesn't devastate the team.  Same with RB, DL, LB to an extent.

But QB you don't get to play some of the time.  If your QB is only 60% as good as you expect, your team is horrible because he gets the ball every play, and passing is still the defining winning/losing stat in the NFL.

You have to have a QB, so you have to pick them sometimes, but it's always a scary proposition.

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2 hours ago, dirtybirds233 said:

I don't hate Vick, I just said he wasn't a good QB, because he wasn't. Unless you want to argue that 54% completion and averaging about one passing TD per game are the makings of a good QB. 

Again, he was a tremendous athlete, I'm not arguing that. 

 

Similar to Cam Newton last year.

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3 hours ago, takeitdown said:

This is why picking QB is so difficult.

It's so much mental, and that's very hard to gauge, so there is a high bust rate.  And the biggest element is a bust on a QB sets you back.

If a 1st round WR doesn't live up to expectations, he can still get 700 yards per season and you have other WR's you surround him with.  It doesn't devastate the team.  Same with RB, DL, LB to an extent.

But QB you don't get to play some of the time.  If your QB is only 60% as good as you expect, your team is horrible because he gets the ball every play, and passing is still the defining winning/losing stat in the NFL.

You have to have a QB, so you have to pick them sometimes, but it's always a scary proposition.

And its even more complex than that. The way the QB processes the information is as important as his intelligence.  This is why the whiteboard test is the most important of them all IMO once you feel he has the physical gifts and other qualities.  The whiteboard allows coaches to see how fast his brain can read a defense and make a quick decision on where best to go with the ball presnap by showing him multiple alignments, motions and where to go and how fast.

I was saying the other day my wife is highly intelligent, but she is unable to "see the field" that same way I do. When we walk out of a grocery store with a cart in a crowded, busy parking lot- my mind, without effort, automatically processes the path of least resistance to the car. It does it even while I'm engaged in conversation.  She, on the other hand, cannot process all the moving pieces as I do and she walks straight into the most hectic part creating more traffic jams.  It drives me CRAZY, so I always try and make sure i have the cart when  we leave.

Its similar to how some running backs have good vision, their mind calculates the path of least resistance in a fraction of a second. 

In fact, it may be even ore a processing thing than and intelligence thing for running backs, but a QB has to have both.  Ryan aced the whiteboard, blew away TD and he said after draft only QB he ever saw ace it like that was Tom Brady.

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36 minutes ago, gazoo said:

And its even more complex than that. The way the QB processes the information is as important as his intelligence.  This is why the whiteboard test is the most important of them all IMO once you feel he has the physical gifts and other qualities.  The whiteboard allows coaches to see how fast his brain can read a defense and make a quick decision on where best to go with the ball presnap by showing him multiple alignments, motions and where to go and how fast.

I was saying the other day my wife is highly intelligent, but she is unable to "see the field" that same way I do. When we walk out of a grocery store with a cart in a crowded, busy parking lot- my mind, without effort, automatically processes the path of least resistance to the car. It does it even while I'm engaged in conversation.  She, on the other hand, cannot process all the moving pieces as I do and she walks straight into the most hectic part creating more traffic jams.  It drives me CRAZY, so I always try and make sure i have the cart when  we leave.

Its similar to how some running backs have good vision, their mind calculates the path of least resistance in a fraction of a second. 

In fact, it may be even ore a processing thing than and intelligence thing for running backs, but a QB has to have both.  Ryan aced the whiteboard, blew away TD and he said after draft only QB he ever saw ace it like that was Tom Brady.

I just posted an article that laid waste to your theory that Justin Fields doesn't have processing skills.

Carry on now w/ your narrative.

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7 hours ago, dirtybirds233 said:

I don't hate Vick, I just said he wasn't a good QB, because he wasn't. Unless you want to argue that 54% completion and averaging about one passing TD per game are the makings of a good QB. 

Again, he was a tremendous athlete, I'm not arguing that. 

 

Vick was a heck of a lot of fun to watch, explosive runner, but he wasn’t a good QB. Pocket QBs typically win a Super Bowls. If they can run in addition to pocket abilities that’s  great, but they have to first and foremost be able to dissect a defense from the pocket to win Lombardis

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22 hours ago, gazoo said:

Let's go ahead and look at the odds of picking a QB in top 5 and having them be a bust  or disappointments since 2000, shall we? 

So everyone name the QB on there who lived up to the pick.

I'll start:  Matt Ryan 

Don't you think you're putting too much into trying to make a point? Obviously, you think Ryan is God, because there is no such thing as a successful top 5 pick at QB.

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On 4/11/2021 at 8:05 PM, gazoo said:

Let's go ahead and look at the odds of picking a QB in top 5 and having them be a bust  or disappointments since 2000, shall we? 

So everyone name the QB on there who lived up to the pick.

I'll start:  Matt Ryan 

Ryan and Manning are the only two I see. Manning does have 2 SB under his belt. Stafford good but not close to getting the ring. So Matt and Eli it is IMO. 2 out of 27,. Not very good odds. 

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33 minutes ago, fuego said:

Ryan and Manning are the only two I see. Manning does have 2 SB under his belt. Stafford good but not close to getting the ring. So Matt and Eli it is IMO. 2 out of 27,. Not very good odds. 

It's a lot easier to take a hit at lower half of round 1 on a bust than it is get a bust in top 5 of entire draft.  

The one thing we know about these guys that made it is they can read defenses and react quickly, get the ball accurately to the appropriate check down. They know presnap where they are going with the ball AND can get it there.  That is so much more important than being able to scramble away from pressure and get a 12 yard run.  I know its a lot more exciting to see the run, then it is a boring 12 yard pass, but they mean exactly the same thing while keeping the QB in the pocket where he is more protected. 

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On 4/11/2021 at 8:33 PM, hollywood said:

I hear ya. and I don't entirely disagree. That pick range you are wanting a superstar.  BUT they are still starters at the moment, still playing so the book isn't closed.  I wouldn't call them busts quite yet. 

Another way to look at it is are they franchise QBs?  Both the teams that drafted them already dumped them, so no.  Could they still have an ok career?  Yeah.  But if you asked both teams that drafted them behind closed doors, they were both a let down for their team or they would still be there.

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