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Forget the position and the rookie year - draft a pillar player for the franchise


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We have all been debating and exchanging ideas on

“Quarterback vs Non-QB”

“sticking at #4 or trading out for more picks”

”offense vs defense”

etc, etc with Falcons first round pick.   All are legitimate topics of conversation and worthy of debate.

I believe many are fascinated with not only drafting the rookie but wanting the rookie to be a STAR in the rookie year.  That’s great if it happens but not the most important thing.

The goal should always be to draft a GREAT player with the most valuable chip any NFL team has every year - the 1st round draft pick.

Picking in the top 10? Even more important.  Picking in top 5?  Ideally you dream of drafting a 12yr player and hopefully a HOF player - this is also why you never draft a RB this high - they simply don’t have long NFL careers at high levels.

Draft a GREAT player Terry Fontenot.  One that can have a long storied career in Atlanta.    Don’t trade down unless you believe you will get a pillar of the franchise player at the pick you trade down spot.

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I do

Do we feel Surtain can be that pillar?

Surtain and Terrell give the Falcons the best young CB duo in the NFL for the next four years. 

On 4/10/2021 at 9:01 PM, VTCrunkler said:

Do we feel Surtain can be that pillar?

That’s the thang, isn’t it? There’s always gonna be 10-12 players in the draft we all debate over who will or won’t be ‘pillars. 
 

Even TF don’t know who will turn out to be a ‘pillar’, and nobody in here sure as heck does. That’s what always makes the draft so fascinating.

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With QBs going so high, arguably top 13-14 picks could have very good selections; seeing that 3-4 maybe more QBs are taken...all of them aren’t going to be great. That’s a given and would be rare.

Any first pick of Pitts/Sewell/Chase/Surtain/Parsons etc could be very good chips.

The trade down appeal would be only if a haul was offered. In that sense, you leverage a single blue chip HOF caliber for a very good chip + more very good chips; assuming future 1st rounder + a couple other early/mid rounders contribute to a better roster than staying at 4.

If it’s just to gain some draft capitol then you have to basically evaluate anyone falling to 9-15 range as similar to BPA at 4. That’s a big gamble to your point.

Hence, no half measures. Take BPA on your board at 4 OR get several big chips in return and overall capitol.

This team is pretty loaded on offense still.

Either push it to stupid levels or work overturning this roster on overdrive with 2021/2022 drafts maybe even a 2023 1st round pick. :tiphat:

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4 minutes ago, Jesus said:

Surtain and Terrell give the Falcons the best young CB duo in the NFL for the next four years. 

There are a lot of nice 2nd round corner prospects in this draft.   Do you believe Surtain is soooo much better than those guys?

Is Surtain so good or is he just thought to be somewhat better than the 2nd tier and therefore a Top 12 pick?

I am  agnostic on Surtain.  Don’t have a good feel one way or the other on him.

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8 minutes ago, Jesus said:

Surtain and Terrell give the Falcons the best young CB duo in the NFL for the next four years. 

How about a trade down for Parsons at 9 and then taking ASJ or Horn...pair them and have upgraded front 7 with arguably the best in box defender this draft. :shrug:

Is Surtain that much better of a prospect? Okudah had a rough rookie year but it wouldn’t be surprising if he had a better ceiling than AJ still.

It’s weird, too. Many reports had Atlanta considering a move up for Chase Young but WFT was like “nope”...

I’m down if we optimize staying or trading down but again, no half-measure. Make it work!

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12 minutes ago, VTCrunkler said:

Do we feel Surtain can be that pillar?

Not at 6 he ain't.  If you aren't the second coming if Deion...nope. But then again if you think he is that's when you draft him.  The pillars are : (not putting in QBs) Pitts, Sewell and perhaps Chase if you truly believe he's Julio part deux. 

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3 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

With QBs going so high, arguably top 13-14 picks could have very good selections; seeing that 3-4 maybe more QBs are taken...all of them aren’t going to be great. That’s a given and would be rare.

Any first pick of Pitts/Sewell/Chase/Surtain/Parsons etc could be very good chips.

The trade down appeal would be only if a haul was offered. In that sense, you leverage a single blue chip HOF caliber for a very good chip + more very good chips; assuming future 1st rounder + a couple other early/mid rounders contribute to a better roster than staying at 4.

If it’s just to gain some draft capitol then you have to basically evaluate anyone falling to 9-15 range as similar to BPA at 4. That’s a big gamble to your point.

Hence, no half measures. Take BPA on your board at 4 OR get several big chips in return and overall capitol.

This team is pretty loaded on offense still.

Either push it to stupid levels or work overturning this roster on overdrive with 2021/2022 drafts maybe even a 2023 1st round pick. :tiphat:

I just know that it’s harder than us laymen think when it comes to a boatload of picks - you can go back and look at teams that had 10+ picks and not much to show for it - more picks doesn’t necessarily equal better results in draft which has always been the prevailing thought on TATF.   Getting a superstar and two other starters is a GREAT draft.   Getting 5+ significant contributors in any one draft is difficult no matter how many picks you have.

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2 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

I just know that it’s harder than us laymen think when it comes to a boatload of picks - you can go back and look at teams that had 10+ picks and not much to show for it - more picks doesn’t necessarily equal better results in draft which has always been the prevailing thought on TATF.   Getting a superstar and two other starters is a GREAT draft.   Getting 5+ significant contributors in any one draft is difficult no matter how many picks you have.

That’s why the point isn’t 1 draft man.

It’s a HAUL with 1st rounders in future years as well. The reverse Julio trade. Now obviously Cleveland didn’t draft well but also wasn’t our trade up much larger of a jump? If we can get similar value without moving as far down, because it’s the “franchise QB” asking price?

Yeah, that’ll be hard to pass up. I’m more keen on fleecing DEN as I think they’ll be hard pressed to pass KC anytime soon and future picks could be higher by definition.

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I put “forget the rookie year” in the title specifically for the QB position.

Half the board here put their fingers in their ears and go “lalalalalalala” because the Rook QB wouldn’t start while failing to take a minute to consider the right QB can be a 15 year, three contract player.

It doesn’t have to be a QB - but everyone that won’t consider QB at #4 is just being short-sighted.    If you plan on being a Falcon fan for more than just 2021 season, open yourself up to the idea.

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3 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

That’s why the point isn’t 1 draft man.

It’s a HAUL with 1st rounders in future years as well. The reverse Julio trade. Now obviously Cleveland didn’t draft well but also wasn’t our trade up much larger of a jump? If we can get similar value without moving as far down, because it’s the “franchise QB” asking price?

Yeah, that’ll be hard to pass up. I’m more keen on fleecing DEN as I think they’ll be hard pressed to pass KC anytime soon and future picks could be higher by definition.

Yes to me if I am Fontenot and I am willing to forego the QB class, I am only willing to deal with teams in the top 10 that will overpay for a QB - presumably that would only be Detroit (#7) and Denver(#9).

If Fontenot trades out of Top 10, it would have to be at least two future 1st rd picks and multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks both now and future years.

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16 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

There are a lot of nice 2nd round corner prospects in this draft.   Do you believe Surtain is soooo much better than those guys?

Is Surtain so good or is he just thought to be somewhat better than the 2nd tier and therefore a Top 12 pick?

I am  agnostic on Surtain.  Don’t have a good feel one way or the other on him.

Some guys are better than others. The question is will these new defensive coaches rise this defense up for once?

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2 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

I put “forget the rookie year” in the title specifically for the QB position.

Half the board here put their fingers in their ears and go “lalalalalalala” because the Rook QB wouldn’t start while failing to take a minute to consider the right QB can be a 15 year, three contract player.

It doesn’t have to be a QB - but everyone that won’t consider QB at #4 is just being short-sighted.    If you plan on being a Falcon fan for more than just 2021 season, open yourself up to the idea.

No doubt the right QB will be needed past Ryan. If Atlanta takes a QB, that should be the hope.

That said, using the value of 4 in this draft is either maximize with BPA at the spot or in a haul to move down some.

One player at TE could catapult the offense forward. Or, several bolstering Defensive prospects like Parsons and a Corner would be very tempting to turning around the defense; which is likely taking a couple years before arriving under Pees anyway.

If AS bets on himself, and we move from 4, it could signal that path.

Or, we recognize the best player at 4 is just too good to pass up and let the defense take a more natural course of building with other picks and FA as the cap opens up more next year if things work out right.

I mean, Fowler producing at all would be like adding a player rofl!!

JC and MD are hopefully going to do something this year but we don’t know. That’s sorta the point you are making with young defenders that aren’t blue chips and need a year or two to adjust.

At the same time, better coaching can get more out of young players sooner. That would be a refreshing new trend if the coaching change is worth its hype at all.

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1 hour ago, VTCrunkler said:

Do we feel Surtain can be that pillar?

Surtain is a good player and I expect him to be a quality starter in this league, but Pitts, Sewell and Chase will do more for the offense than Surtain will do for the defense.  Also, while this draft is generally weaker on defense than it is on offense, the depth at CB is actually pretty decent.

Pitts is a true unicorn in this class, and Sewell is pretty close to being one.  If I am picking in the top 5, I am taking the player who offers something I can't get later in the draft.

I can read our current defensive depth chart, so I understand the eagerness to take a defensive player, but there is not a defensive player with upside equivalent to what the best non-QB offensive prospects offer.

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