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He’d be going to the Jets?

Good analysis.  People are acting like: 1) QB's are the only risky picks you can make in the 1st round, and 2) any rookie you take in the 1st round at a position of perceived need will automatically "

We only have four picks in the first four rounds.  We can’t count on the QBs people want at #4 overall to be day one starters, you just listed all of our misses in the first round, why do people think

1 hour ago, Hard Case said:

One other reason is the age of Blank, he wants to be competitive NOW.

 

https://bloggingdirty.com/2021/03/31/atlanta-falcons-arthur-smith-rebuild/

We can be competitive with a QB in the first round. We have 9 picks

Lets look at our first round picks since we drafted Matt Ryan in 08.

Sam Baker (received 2nd contract but was injured for the most part)

Peria Jerry (no 2nd contract-injured)

Sean Weatherspoon (no 2nd contract-injured)

Julio Jones (still on team) 

Desmond Trufant (2nd contract - currently not on team) 

Jake Matthews (still on team)

Vic Beasley (no 2nd contract - currently not on team)

Keanu Neal (no 2nd contract - injured - not currently on team)

Takk McKinley (no 2nd contract - waived)

other than Ryan 2/9 still on team
—————————-
Calvin Ridley (on rookie contract - up for 5th year option. Due two days after the draft May 3rd.)

Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary (on rookie contracts)

A.J. Terrell (on rookie contract)

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1 hour ago, Hard Case said:

One other reason is the age of Blank, he wants to be competitive NOW.

 

https://bloggingdirty.com/2021/03/31/atlanta-falcons-arthur-smith-rebuild/

Sure Arthur Blank wants to be competitive now, but that does not mean TF and Arthur #2 are not empowered to take a QB at 4 if they feel doing is so is in the best long-term interest of the franchise and their regime.  TF and Arthur #2 are not tied to Matt Ryan or anyone else on the roster the way TD/DQ were.

Regarding Arthur Blank's age, there is no doubt he wants to see us win a SB in his lifetime, but remember that the team will still be owned by Blank's family whenever he passes away. In fact, it's worth noting that both TF and Arthur #2 mentioned spending time with Arthur Blank's sons during their interview processes.  Arthur Blank also made a point of noting that both TF and Arthur #2 were relatively young (40 and 38), and that the franchise was now set up well for the present and future.  That suggests to me that Arthur Blank was not just thinking about himself with these hires, but that he was also thinking about how the franchise may look after he is gone and majority ownership belongs to his family. 

As such, QB at 4 is still a possibility if the braintrust believes that one of these prospects is the right guy to succeed Matt Ryan and usher in a new era if or when ownership transfers in the next few years.

Edited by Al Bruce
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14 minutes ago, Cole World said:

We can be competitive with a QB in the first round. We have 9 picks

Lets look at our first round picks since we drafted Matt Ryan in 08.

Sam Baker (received 2nd contract but was injured for the most part)

Peria Jerry (no 2nd contract-injured)

Sean Weatherspoon (no 2nd contract-injured)

Julio Jones (still on team) 

Desmond Trufant (2nd contract - currently not on team) 

Jake Matthews (still on team)

Vic Beasley (no 2nd contract - currently not on team)

Keanu Neal (no 2nd contract - injured - not currently on team)

Takk McKinley (no 2nd contract - waived)

other than Ryan 2/9 still on team
—————————-
Calvin Ridley (on rookie contract - up for 5th year option. Due two days after the draft May 3rd.)

Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary (on rookie contracts)

A.J. Terrell (on rookie contract)

Good analysis.  People are acting like: 1) QB's are the only risky picks you can make in the 1st round, and 2) any rookie you take in the 1st round at a position of perceived need will automatically "fix" that need.

 

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14 minutes ago, Cole World said:

We can be competitive with a QB in the first round. We have 9 picks

We only have four picks in the first four rounds.  We can’t count on the QBs people want at #4 overall to be day one starters, you just listed all of our misses in the first round, why do people think guys taken after round four are going to be good to go?  Those are depth/special teams/squad bodies most of the time, rarely impact starters.

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1 minute ago, Al Bruce said:

Good analysis.  People are acting like: 1) QB's are the only risky picks you can make in the 1st round, and 2) any rookie you take in the 1st round at a position of perceived need will automatically "fix" that need.

 

That’s why a lot want to trade down to minimize risk.  More at bats = more hits. 

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1 minute ago, Rings said:

That’s why a lot want to trade down to minimize risk.  More at bats = more hits. 

I am not sure teams that trade down from the top-5 and accumulate picks have a higher "hit" percentage than teams that just take the BPA at their draft position in the top-5.

Hitting on a top-5 pick also offers a greater reward than hitting on a pick later in the draft because you are selecting from a pool of players in the top-5 who generally have higher upside (think shooting a 3 over a long 2 in basketball, or hitting an extra base hit in baseball).

For those so eager to acquire more picks in this year's draft, remember that the #35 pick at the top of 2nd round will likely have significant trade value too.  If you trade out of the top-5, you had better be sure on your evaluations of the QBs and non-QBs (Pitts, Chase, Sewell) you are passing up.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Al Bruce said:

I am not sure teams that trade down from the top-5 and accumulate picks have a higher "hit" percentage than teams that just take the BPA at their draft position in the top-5.

Hitting on a top-5 pick also offers a greater reward than hitting on a pick later in the draft because you are selecting from a pool of players in the top-5 who generally have higher upside (think shooting a 3 over a long 2 in basketball, or hitting an extra base hit in baseball).

For those so eager to acquire more picks in this year's draft, remember that the #35 pick at the top of 2nd round will likely have significant trade value too.  If you trade out of the top-5, you had better be sure on your evaluations of the QBs and non-QBs (Pitts, Chase, Sewell) you are passing up.

 

 

You have a higher chance on hitting when you have more picks, that’s not a theory from me it just basic math and odds.  The earlier your picks is, in theory there is a higher percentage, but if you have multiple picks with a slightly lower chance, you still have better odds overall.  Secondly, with the amount of holes we need to fill, we need more chances to get those right.  Pitts may be amazing, but as of now he would be our third receiving option.  Or a QB would sit on the bench for a year or two.  I’d much rather have our current players on offense and address the decimated defense than have the best tight end or a backup QB.  That offense better be hanging 35 a game if they take Pitts cause our defense is giving up 30+ a game easy.

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36 minutes ago, Rings said:

We only have four picks in the first four rounds.  We can’t count on the QBs people want at #4 overall to be day one starters, you just listed all of our misses in the first round, why do people think guys taken after round four are going to be good to go?  Those are depth/special teams/squad bodies most of the time, rarely impact starters.

I’ll feel a lot better having one of those top QBs taking reps if something were to happen to Ryan than a late round QB.

Grady a 5th rounder is our best defensive player. Foye and Gage plays a significant role on defense and offense respectively.

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5 minutes ago, Cole World said:

I’ll feel a lot better having one of those top QBs taking reps if something were to happen to Ryan than a late round QB.

Grady a 5th rounder is our best defensive player. Foye and Gage plays a significant role on defense and offense respectively.

Why do you have that line of thinking though man? Ryan doesn’t get hurt. His style of play is very play it safe. He’s proven that he’s very likely to give you 16 games every year. 

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1 minute ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Why do you have that line of thinking though man? Ryan doesn’t get hurt. His style of play is very play it safe. He’s proven that he’s very likely to give you 16 games every year. 

Yes, he doesn’t get hurt but accident do happen (knock on wood). Look at the game they had 2 seasons ago against the Rams. Luckily he only missed the following game.

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1 minute ago, Cole World said:

Yes, he doesn’t get hurt but accident do happen (knock on wood). Look at the game they had 2 seasons ago against the Rams. Luckily he only missed the following game.

It’s just not something I worry about man. It’s one thing if you want a new QB. But it’s another if you think a QB should be drafted at 4 because you are worried about Ryan’s health. It’s honestly a non-issue man. 

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3 minutes ago, Rings said:

You have a higher chance on hitting when you have more picks, that’s not a theory from me it just basic math and odds.  The earlier your picks is, in theory there is a higher percentage, but if you have multiple picks with a slightly lower chance, you still have better odds overall.  Secondly, with the amount of holes we need to fill, we need more chances to get those right.  Pitts may be amazing, but as of now he would be our third receiving option.  Or a QB would sit on the bench for a year or two.  I’d much rather have our current players on offense and address the decimated defense than have the best tight end or a backup QB.  That offense better be hanging 35 a game if they take Pitts cause our defense is giving up 30+ a game easy.

I understand what you are saying about having more picks increasing our odds of hitting on draft picks. 

Where we differ in philosophically is on the concept of "hitting big" in the draft by getting a positional player with perennial All-Pro potential or landing a potential franchise QB vs. merely "hitting" and getting a competent starter at position of perceived need.  I am saying you have greater odds at landing an elite talent by staying in the top-5, and elite players tend to mask other roster deficiencies.

 

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22 minutes ago, Cole World said:

I’ll feel a lot better having one of those top QBs taking reps if something were to happen to Ryan than a late round QB.

Grady a 5th rounder is our best defensive player. Foye and Gage plays a significant role on defense and offense respectively.

I said rare, not impossible.  Just cause TD sucked at drafting defenders doesn’t mean that’s logic we should try to replicate.  If that’s the case lets aim for a QB in the sixth and see if we can replicate some atom Brady magic.  

Foye has had really one solid year, and is good depth.  I think people confuse that a player is a quality starter vs a player is out performing their draft position.  Ricardo Allen outplayed a 6th round picks expectations, but it was still past time to move on.  Campbell was the same way, Worrilow years back.  Those anomalies should be your supporting cast and depth players, not your starters you count on each draft class.

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14 minutes ago, Al Bruce said:

I understand what you are saying about having more picks increasing our odds of hitting on draft picks. 

Where we differ in philosophically is on the concept of "hitting big" in the draft by getting a positional player with perennial All-Pro potential or landing a potential franchise QB vs. merely "hitting" and getting a competent starter at position of perceived need.  I am saying you have greater odds at landing an elite talent by staying in the top-5, and elite players tend to mask other roster deficiencies.

 

We don’t need to hit big.  Our team is insanely top heavy because TD always wanted to “hit big” and traded away an entire draft over his time to “hit big”.  It’s why we have such a small percentage of our players taking up a ton of the cap.  We need supporting cast and depth, we aren’t one or two players away.  We NEED a pass rush, we NEED a difference maker at safety, we don’t NEED a tight end who would be our third receiver or in theory the fourth choice at QB in this draft class.

I don’t care how good Dean Pees is, he didn’t come out of retirement at 72 years old to coach the squad on that depth chart currently, something has to change and a maybe future starting QB or a tight end isn’t doing it.

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6 minutes ago, Rings said:

I said rare, not impossible.  Just cause TD sucked at drafting defenders doesn’t mean that’s logic we should try to replicate.  If that’s the case lets aim for a QB in the sixth and see if we can replicate some atom Brady magic.  

Foye has had really one solid year, and is good depth.  I think people confuse that a player is a quality starter vs a player is out performing their draft position.  Ricardo Allen outplayed a 6th round picks expectations, but it was still past time to move on.  Campbell was the same way, Worrilow years back.  Those anomalies should be your supporting cast and depth players, not your starters you count on each draft class.

You seen or heard what Fontenot said, if not here it is.

 

But earlier this week, G.M. Terry Fontenot talked about how the Falcons’ personnel staff will have to be at its best to make the most of the team’s roster.

“We’re going to have to find players because you can’t just build your roster with overpaid players in free agency or top draft picks. We have to really dig and find value in free agency,” Fontenot said, via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “That’s working with the coaches and finding exactly what they need and going and finding the players that they need. That’s throughout the entire draft and that’s in undrafted free agency. So, we have to be scouts and go find good players that can really fit the make-up and profile that we are looking for.”

Edited by Cole World
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7 minutes ago, Cole World said:

You seen or heard what Fontenot said, if not here it is.

 

But earlier this week, G.M. Terry Fontenot talked about how the Falcons’ personnel staff will have to be at its best to make the most of the team’s roster.

“We’re going to have to find players because you can’t just build your roster with overpaid players in free agency or top draft picks. We have to really dig and find value in free agency,” Fontenot said, via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “That’s working with the coaches and finding exactly what they need and going and finding the players that they need. That’s throughout the entire draft and that’s in undrafted free agency. So, we have to be scouts and go find good players that can really fit the make-up and profile that we are looking for.”

I know what he said, but if he trades down that makes that tall task a whole lot easier.  Just saying.

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50 minutes ago, Rings said:

We don’t need to hit big.  Our team is insanely top heavy because TD always wanted to “hit big” and traded away an entire draft over his time to “hit big”.  It’s why we have such a small percentage of our players taking up a ton of the cap.  We need supporting cast and depth, we aren’t one or two players away.  We NEED a pass rush, we NEED a difference maker at safety, we don’t NEED a tight end who would be our third receiver or in theory the fourth choice at QB in this draft class.

I don’t care how good Dean Pees is, he didn’t come out of retirement at 72 years old to coach the squad on that depth chart currently, something has to change and a maybe future starting QB or a tight end isn’t doing it.

Preach. I've no doubt Arthur Smith believes he can win with what we have on offense already, but everyone knows we NEED pieces on defense to work with...

Give me three rounds that look like:

Surtain

Azeez Ojulari

Trey Sermon

And I believe we make it back to the playoffs this year...

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3 hours ago, Hard Case said:

One other reason is the age of Blank, he wants to be competitive NOW.

 

https://bloggingdirty.com/2021/03/31/atlanta-falcons-arthur-smith-rebuild/

Eh, I wouldn't pay too much attention to the whole win now thing. No franchise is going to come out and say that they want to lose.

He talked earlier in the off-season about having a transition plan from Matt and Julio. He listed Ridley as an in house example for WR and Rodgers, Brady, and Mahomes as QB examples who sat.

https://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-falcons/blank-has-studied-nfl-quarterback-transition-plans/6YYRYXL22RDJ3KNS2QU23MCWTU/

It's definitely on the table (among other things).

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52 minutes ago, Rings said:

We don’t need to hit big.  Our team is insanely top heavy because TD always wanted to “hit big” and traded away an entire draft over his time to “hit big”.  It’s why we have such a small percentage of our players taking up a ton of the cap.  We need supporting cast and depth, we aren’t one or two players away.  We NEED a pass rush, we NEED a difference maker at safety, we don’t NEED a tight end who would be our third receiver or in theory the fourth choice at QB in this draft class.

I don’t care how good Dean Pees is, he didn’t come out of retirement at 72 years old to coach the squad on that depth chart currently, something has to change and a maybe future starting QB or a tight end isn’t doing it.

Oh, I definitely am not saying we are one or two players away.  I think this team is further away from SB contention than people want to acknowledge. 

That said, I do not think TD "hit big" other than taking Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.  He got lucky with Grady Jarrett (that's allowed, not praising or faulting him for that) and he stumbled into Calvin Ridley by actually taking the BPA. 

If TD had taken the BPA throughout many of his drafts instead of drafting purely for need, the roster would be in a different place.  This draft class is weak at pass rusher and safety, so drafting players at those spots may not immediately address those perceived needs anyway.  

Lastly, Dean Pees said he came out of retirement to coach with Arthur Smith because he thinks highly of him.  He is paid to coach whoever we have on defense, we don't need to make a franchise altering decision solely to appease him.

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