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Hypothetical: We draft Pitts and Ryan struggles...


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10 minutes ago, falconsd56 said:

That is true we also have to remember that Tony Gonzalez actually sucked his first year and was only meh his second.

And he will tell you so.

I mean, he didn't start his first year, like virtually all rookies at the time. I admire that he's that hard on himself, but I watched a lot of those games. He was already getting "revolutionize the position" articles midway through year two.

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How? He posted the 5th highest passer rating in a season of his career. Had 6 games of a 100+ passer rating, 9 of 90+, and 11 of 80+ (82ish is about average). He had 2-3 stinkers, but overall 2020 was

Did Matt Ryan struggle last year or something?

No, Koetter struggled.

7 minutes ago, Foo Falcons said:

Yes but with the idea that he'd be much better in year 2 of the offensive scheme like he tends to be with a competent coordinator 

I think that’s fair. Ryan has struggled his first season in other systems. However I think it’s still prudent to address it just in case. You know?

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1 hour ago, ya_boi_j said:

What if Ryan has another season similar to his MVP season and the defense let's him down again. Have we forgotten to all the times the defense have given up game winning drives the past 2 seasons. 

And these same people that are hellbent on staying at 4 and drafting offense would be the first one complaining about the defense. Gotta love it

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1 minute ago, Romfal said:

I wouldn't say he struggled but historically he hasn't been as good his 1st year under a new system/coordinator

Barring any major offensive injuries, 26 TDs with 11 interceptions is not acceptable with that many weapons. Do I think that’ll be the case? No.  I think it’ll be more like his 2010 without Pitts. With Pitts, maybe another 2-3 TDs.

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2 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

 

 

Brady struggled last year too. In some games. This is normal, even for the best QBs in the history of mankind. They have bad games in a given season. Trying to suggest this only happened to Ryan and that this means he’s in decline is a real stretch.

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1 minute ago, xSICKxWITHxITx said:

Ryan had a tad struggle here and there. For the most part though the run game and the defense is what struggled. Dirk struggled. Matt will be bettern with the new scheme a lone.

With scheme alone I think he puts up numbers similar to the 2010 season. With Pitts, maybe another 2-3 TDs. 

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Just now, gazoo said:

Brady struggled last year too. In some games. This is normal, even for the best QBs in the history of mankind. They have bad games in a given season. Trying to suggest this only happened to Ryan and that this means he’s in decline is a real stretch.

 

1 hour ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

The entire team struggled last year. 

 

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Just now, xSICKxWITHxITx said:

Anybody worth taking on defense? I would much rather add a stud on defense. 

Not at 4. But if his character issues check out I’m all in on a trade down and take Parsons. I believe in this scheme he would wreck all sorts of havoc. If the Falcons like his medicals I would take Jaelan Phillips in a trade down too. 

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Just now, xSICKxWITHxITx said:

Anybody worth taking on defense? I would much rather add a stud on defense. 

I don’t think there is on defense. Not as high as 4. Maybe at a trade back scenario. Pitts is in my top five options of selections, ahead of him is Sewell, a bevy of trade backs, then him. 

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9 minutes ago, youngbloodz said:

Not at 4. But if his character issues check out I’m all in on a trade down and take Parsons. I believe in this scheme he would wreck all sorts of havoc. If the Falcons like his medicals I would take Jaelan Phillips in a trade down too. 

Parson's over Phillips? Only negative thing I have heard on Parson's besides character is he doesn't have any pass rusher moves. Just his speed and some power. 

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1 minute ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

If the FO thinks QB is the option at 4, then I’m cool with it. I’m pretty much good with any position at 4 minus K, P, etc 

I'm fine with it, i have no control. Just goes against my own common sense.

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17 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I think that’s fair. Ryan has struggled his first season in other systems. However I think it’s still prudent to address it just in case. You know?

I can understand the argument. I guess it would depend on how bad of a season he has. For example:

Scenario 1.

4,000+ yards 20 TD 16 INT, while staying healthy and having a good if not great supporting cast, missing throws and not making game winning plays, us finishing with a losing record, yeah I could understand wanting to move forward with a top QB in the 2022 draft if one is attainable.

Scenario 2.

4,000+ yards 26 TD 12 INT (typical type stats in an average year) while making great throws, being a reliable finisher, getting everyone involved. While the numbers aren't super flashy, I'd be willing to give him another year in the system before getting worried.

But then you've gotta think back to when he threw what was it 20 TD 18 INT his first year with Shanahan only to be the MVP the following season. People were calling for his head after that down year. That was 5 years ago but I don't think his age is a factor yet. 

With all that being in mind I think it would just have to be the eye test/gut feeling. It's an interesting thought for sure. Hopefully not one we're having heading into 2022

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1 hour ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

Pitts is the hot name getting thrown around lately. I’ve seen a few posters stating that he’ll take our offense to the next level.

If Ryan puts up similar numbers as he did last year with Pitts, and Smith at the helm; 

Would you address the QB position after that season? If no, why not?

What stats would you expect of Ryan with Julio, Ridley, Gage, Hurst, and Pitts?

I don't generally work in hypotheticals because I find them generally useless to discuss BUT I will answer your questions...

- Would you address the QB position after that season?  I would be much more inclined to spend draft capita after next season than I am right now, so yes.  In your scenario, if Matt struggles, it may signify the beginning of the decline and I'd be much more comfortable drafting a replacement than I am right now...

- Stats are tough to predict, almost impossible but I think ballpark numbers of:

Ryan: 4500 Yards, 25+ TD's

Julio: 1400 Yards

Ridley: 1000 Yards

Gage: 600 Yards

Hurst and Pitts Combined: 1000 Yards

I think where Pitts will make his hay, at least early on, will be red zone and touchdowns...

BUT I will also say this.  I am expecting a revival of Matt's career with this Arthur Smith system.  While we may not have Derrick Henry, seeing what he did with Tannehill, Brown, Davis, Smith, Walker and company makes me think he can turn a cast of Ryan, Julio, Ridley, Gage, Pitts and Hurst into a lethal offense.  Look at Tanny's stats alone pre and post Smith.  Now imagine what Smith can do with an actual NFL QB.  And I have always stood up for Tanny, I think he has always been underrated, but he is no Matt...

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1 minute ago, Foo Falcons said:

People were calling for his head after that down year.

Yep, many were saying Ryans best days were behind him and that he was in decline. I predicted in preseason we would have a prolific offense in 2016 and was roundly mocked for it.  But I knew when we signed Alex Mack, Ryan was going to be able to shine under Shannys scheming, a good running game, a legitimate center and the receivers he had.

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5 minutes ago, Williamb said:

8 games against playoff teams, 3 against sb teams, 2 against sb winner. 2nd highest strength of schedule in the nfl.

Of the 100+ ratings you were talking about. SOS is thanks to individual teams bumping up the average. On a team by team basis, we had a cake schedule. 

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4 minutes ago, athell said:

I don't generally work in hypotheticals because I find them generally useless to discuss BUT I will answer your questions...

- Would you address the QB position after that season?  I would be much more inclined to spend draft capita after next season than I am right now, so yes.  In your scenario, if Matt struggles, it may signify the beginning of the decline and I'd be much more comfortable drafting a replacement than I am right now...

- Stats are tough to predict, almost impossible but I think ballpark numbers of:

Ryan: 4500 Yards, 25+ TD's

Julio: 1400 Yards

Ridley: 1000 Yards

Gage: 600 Yards

Hurst and Pitts Combined: 1000 Yards

I think where Pitts will make his hay, at least early on, will be red zone and touchdowns...

BUT I will also say this.  I am expecting a revival of Matt's career with this Arthur Smith system.  While we may not have Derrick Henry, seeing what he did with Tannehill, Brown, Davis, Smith, Walker and company makes me think he can turn a cast of Ryan, Julio, Ridley, Gage, Pitts and Hurst into a lethal offense.  Look at Tanny's stats alone pre and post Smith.  Now imagine what Smith can do with an actual NFL QB.  And I have always stood up for Tanny, I think he has always been underrated, but he is no Matt...

Excellent post. Thank you for answering the questions as presented to you and not responding with “That’ll never happen.”. I’ve gone on record saying that I think Ryan’s stats will be close to his 2010 stats without Pitts. With Pitts, he might add another 2-3 TDs. 

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