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Late round QB many are sleeping on


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9 minutes ago, SipDirtyBird84 said:

Bro miss me with that! You just said Tom Brady was accurate in college. Who had the higher completion percentage as a starter Brady or Franks? Don’t worry I’ll wait!

Yeah that's exactly what I said!  Not going to argue with you if you want to believe Franks was more accurate in college than Tom Brady you can die on that hill.   Franks the next HOF QB! 

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9 hours ago, egoprime II said:

 

 

Gotta say, guys... watching Franks on that video, he looks like Matt Ryan out there.  

If Franks was our 4th rnd guy, maybe even 3rd... I'm in.

I think 3rd is way too high. I'd much rather have Trask, but a few months back, I did notice Feleipe when looking through completion % for college QB. I might rather have Crum in the 6th than him in the 3rd or 4th or 5th.

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9 hours ago, egoprime II said:

Good post with accurate observations, but you don't go far enough into the question of why the day three QBs don't tend to do anything in the NFL.   One big reason?  NFL coaches don't give the day 3 QBS a -chance-.   Heck, teams don't even carry a 3rd QB on the rosters anymore.   Everyone wants thier backup to be 'an experienced NFL veteran'.  HC can't be blamed for thinking that way... day 3 QBs could take time (and a roster spot) to develop, time most NFL coaches do not feel they have.

Plus... if a team spends a 1st on a QB, then that QB -WILL- play within a year or two.  If not, owners start asking:   "Why did we use our 1st on a QB who isn't playin?"   That is a conversation no GM or HC wants to have....

When pressed into service some of these guys can produce.   Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew, Taylor Heineke and especially Kurt warner and Tom Brady....  These guys have won games in the NFL.  The collective investment in just these five guys?  One 4th, and two 6th rnd draft picks.   With all the passing going on in college, -someone- is out there that we can draft on day 3, and turn into an NFL starter.   Its up to the Falcons to find that player (Franks?).

There is only one Tom Brady.  Your odds at hitting on a first-round QB are much higher than selecting the greatest QB of all time in the 6th round.  Same for the odds of finding a future HOF like Kurt Warner as an udfa.  

Kirk Cousins has one playoff win in 9 seasons.  Garnder Minshew and Taylor Heineke are capable of playing well in spurts like the competent backup QBs that they are, but their teams are not confusing either of those guys with being a franchise QB.  That is why the Jags are drafting Trevor Lawrence and WFT paid Fitzmagic and may still draft a QB.

It's fair to speculate whether some late-round QB prospects may have more success if they had adequate time to develop, but the NFL is not a developmental league.

 

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1 minute ago, insight said:

Yeah that's exactly what I said!  Not going to argue with you if you want to believe Franks was more accurate in college than Tom Brady you can die on that hill.   Franks the next HOF QB! 

Just going off of what you said! You called Franks inaccurate and Tom Brady accurate in college as a starter. Don’t make sense to me. 
 

No one knows what will happen when someone reaches the NFL. I just said he flashed greatness and could develop into something good at the next level. 

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10 hours ago, SipDirtyBird84 said:

QB Feleipe Franks

Height: 6'7″ (97th percentile)
Weight: 234 (89th)
Vertical: 33 (62nd)
Broad jump: 117 (79th)
40-yard: 4.55 (94th)
Short shuttle: 4.35 (46th)
3-cone: 7.22 (28th)
 

Definitely needs to develop but has a huge arm and can make all the throws. He played on a horrible team but flashed greatness! Would love to see what Arthur Smith can do with him. 

He's horrible.   Makes horrible decisions in the most important times.   NO - please NO.

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10 hours ago, insight said:

Isn't he a redshirt senior who lost his job to Kyle Trask?  This is who you want to lead your franchise, seems like a strange affection for mediocrity. 

This is about training and grooming a leader - not taking a hot shot 21yr old kid and expecting him to lead a multimillion dollar franchise. Pat Mahomes, Matt Ryan, etc. don't grow on trees. 

 

Some, if not *most*, of the best QBs in the league were not taken in the top 15. Wilson - 3rd, Rodgers - 26th overall, Brady - 6th, Jackson - 32nd overall, etc. 

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6 minutes ago, SipDirtyBird84 said:

Just going off of what you said! You called Franks inaccurate and Tom Brady accurate in college as a starter. Don’t make sense to me. 
 

No one knows what will happen when someone reaches the NFL. I just said he flashed greatness and could develop into something good at the next level. 

Statistically you are probably right but part of the issue is they are from different era's playing in different types of offenses. I was underwhelmed with what I saw of Franks. IMO  He could make some really good deep throws, but he was very inconsistent and panicked under pressure. I see him as a project with poor mechanics I wouldn't want him as a Falcon.    I only saw Arkansas once or twice this year so it's possible he made some major transformation during his senior year.

I saw a bit of Tom Brady in college, he  was sandwiched between two NFL QB's and fought for his starting position.

IMO Coming out of Michigan he was more battle tested, skilled, clutch or accurate when it mattered. With that said watching Brady in college I never once thought he had the potential to be the greatest QB of all time. We all know the stories of Brady and Warner but the chances of finding that diamond in the later rounds is highly unlikely. 

 

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Has anybody really looked at the non-first round QBs taken in the passed decade? Or are we just going to cherry pick and assume the Falcons will be the ones to pick Brady, Wilson, or Dak all the time? 

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2 minutes ago, insight said:

IMO Coming out of Michigan he was more battle tested, skilled, clutch or accurate when it mattered. With that said watching Brady in college I never once thought he had the potential to be the greatest QB of all time. We all know the stories of Brady and Warner but the chances of finding that diamond in the later rounds is highly unlikely. 

No one truly knows how, but some way or another Brady completely changed his delivery and physical abilities once he had been in the NFL 4-5 years. His first few years he was just a game manager and then he eventually became a big time play maker. 

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29 minutes ago, Drunken Minotaur Zebra said:

This is about training and grooming a leader - not taking a hot shot 21yr old kid and expecting him to lead a multimillion dollar franchise. Pat Mahomes, Matt Ryan, etc. don't grow on trees. 

 

Some, if not *most*, of the best QBs in the league were not taken in the top 15. Wilson - 3rd, Rodgers - 26th overall, Brady - 6th, Jackson - 32nd overall, etc. 

This is an older document but I think is still holds true statically for the most part. 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Now let's look at little closer at the QBs.

  • Of the 122 QBs drafted in the last 10 years only 25 have been starters for at least half of their career.
  • The first round gives you a 63% chance of finding a starter.
  • The second round gives you a 27% chance, the third a 17% chance, then it really plummets from there with 8% in the fourth and 6% in the 7th.
  • In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter.
  • On average three QBs are drafted in the 1st. This year looks to be a little below average with two probable first rounders.

With the Alex Smith debate raging, no matter where you fall in the argument you will have to agree that unless you catch lightning in a bottle (Russell Wilson) draft success is limited to mostly the first round. Also, I would guess that a majority of those QB starters were high to mid first rounders. It also means that there is a high bust rate for any QB taken after the first round. The Tom Brady / Russell Wilson's of the world are rare occurrences. For the Chiefs, this means that the likelihood of Aaron Murray becoming more than a clipboard holder is about the same as my blind dog finding buried treasure in my backyard. So unless Mariota or Winston falls to No. 18, bank on Smith being the guy for a few more year

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

FYI Brady started 25 games at Michigan. 

Yeah, I was recalling what one of the talking heads' said when Brady first started out.   Said Brady was a backup in college.

But I'm getting old, so there's that.......  B)

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Just now, vel said:

Has anybody really looked at the non-first round QBs taken in the passed decade? Or are we just going to cherry pick and assume the Falcons will be the ones to pick Brady, Wilson, or Dak all the time? 

I’m looking at what they done thus far in f.a. and believe they are not willing to spend money on a decent backup QB.

So looking at the draft it depends on how they view the top 4 QBs compared to the later ones. Especially if something were to happen to Ryan. 
 

Looking at the Steeler situation when big Ben got hurt, they had drafted Mason Rudolf in the 3rd round in 2018 draft. Mason got plenty of reps when Ben was out but he didn’t show he could be a franchise QB.

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3 minutes ago, Cole World said:

I’m looking at what they done thus far in f.a. and believe they are not willing to spend money on a decent backup QB.

So looking at the draft it depends on how they view the top 4 QBs compared to the later ones. Especially if something were to happen to Ryan. 
 

Looking at the Steeler situation when big Ben got hurt, they had drafted Mason Rudolf in the 3rd round in 2018 draft. Mason got plenty of reps when Ben was out but he didn’t show he could be a franchise QB.

Yep. Pretty much. If they just need a back up, they'll pass on a QB at #4. But saying "we can draft Matt's successor later" is using three examples from the past decade as your rationale and ignoring the countless that didn't replace the incumbent QB. 

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3 hours ago, Summerhill said:

Accuracy. Decision making. 

I don't watch enough college football to know. But I am generally a believer to find a successful mid to late round QB you need to find a player that is thought to have some major shortcoming but that shortcoming isn't really an issue. It can be size (height, weight, arm strength), scheme (wasn't asked to do what he is fully capable of), or level of competition. 

In my opinion, physical tools are not what make/break a QB, but the intangibles.  Decision making, pocket awareness, poise, processing speed, etc. are the differentiators, and I don't believe they can be taught. 

Franks lacks in the intangibles.

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54 minutes ago, Al Bruce said:

There is only one Tom Brady.  Your odds at hitting on a first-round QB are much higher than selecting the greatest QB of all time in the 6th round.  Same for the odds of finding a future HOF like Kurt Warner as an udfa.  

Kirk Cousins has one playoff win in 9 seasons.  Garnder Minshew and Taylor Heineke are capable of playing well in spurts like the competent backup QBs that they are, but their teams are not confusing either of those guys with being a franchise QB.  That is why the Jags are drafting Trevor Lawrence and WFT paid Fitzmagic and may still draft a QB.

It's fair to speculate whether some late-round QB prospects may have more success if they had adequate time to develop, but the NFL is not a developmental league.

 

Those five QBs I listed as examples, all five became starters only after the high-priced vets and\or former 1st round picks were injured.    We know how Brady Warner and Cousins turned out,  the Jags replace Minshew every chance they get...  Heineke probably isn't gonna start.

Point is, teams have to give these lower round pick QBs a chance, but they don't.   Brady and Warner did good, Cousins meh, Minshew and Heineke won't start.   That's batting .500, which is about the going rate for the 1st rnd QBs.   Its a small sample size, but teams don't often draft QBs in the late rounds anymore.

I know the NFL doesn't like developing QBs, but teams need to learn.  There are so many QB needy teams, and not enough 1st rnd QBs.   Some team is going to have to accept that fact, and find QBs later in the draft.   

I believe the NFL should have a 'QB slot' on teams' rosters, with the QB filling that slot having an age limit, like 28 yrs old.   That way young QBs have a chance.

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2 hours ago, insight said:

Tom Brady started his Junior and Senior year.   Tom was accurate and showed his skill on the field but felled miserably at the combine and pro day. He was scrawny slow and underdeveloped physically. On top of that Tom Brady is an anomaly not the norm. 

Franks is not accurate, I don't see the desire to bring in bottom of the barrel guys when you are trying to build a winner.  Steel sharpens Steel.  I would prefer Jamie Newman over Franks but I still don't see Newman as a Franchise QB so what is the objective?  When and who are the Falcons winning a Superbowl with? 

Thank you for the correction on Brady, my mistake there.

Your observations about Franks are valid, I am suggesting that the guy shows flashes of what he -could- be if he is developed.   Taking him in the 3rd or 4th is probably not the way to go, maybe the 5th.   In all 7 rounds of the draft teams take prospects who are simply not ready to play.   Right now Trey Lance is being hyped as a top 5 pick, Lance is nothing -but- potential.

The later rounds is when you find players with at least -some- tools to work with, its done all the time with other positions, why not QB?   It doesn't have to be Franks, but we do need somebody.

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52 minutes ago, egoprime II said:

Thank you for the correction on Brady, my mistake there.

Your observations about Franks are valid, I am suggesting that the guy shows flashes of what he -could- be if he is developed.   Taking him in the 3rd or 4th is probably not the way to go, maybe the 5th.   In all 7 rounds of the draft teams take prospects who are simply not ready to play.   Right now Trey Lance is being hyped as a top 5 pick, Lance is nothing -but- potential.

The later rounds is when you find players with at least -some- tools to work with, its done all the time with other positions, why not QB?   It doesn't have to be Franks, but we do need somebody.

I think the Falcons are stuck in between a rock and a hard space. They are attempting to retool the team the around Matt Ryan with limited resources, new coaching staff and only a few blue chip players on the roster. The chances of getting a future starter in rounds 4-7 are less than 10%, you could probably find similar without drafting one and go undrafted like Benkert.  If they see a QB left on the board late in the draft they really like, I have no problem with them taking a flyer on one. I just wouldn't make it a draft strategy since the chances of finding a future starter are so low.

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I like KJ Costello he still has all the talent in the world and played at Stanford so he is a bright guy.  I think the Pirates run and shoot was just to different for him to learn in a shortened offseason.  He had to learn it all as a grad transfer during covid times so minimal practice.  The kid has the stuff just think its a case of bad situation more so than bad player could be a good flier if we get a 7th in a trade or are looking for a priority UDFA

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27 minutes ago, insight said:

I think the Falcons are stuck in between a rock and a hard space. They are attempting to retool the team the around Matt Ryan with limited resources, new coaching staff and only a few blue chip players on the roster. The chances of getting a future starter in rounds 4-7 are less than 10%, you could probably find similar without drafting one and go undrafted like Benkert.  If they see a QB left on the board late in the draft they really like, I have no problem with them taking a flyer on one. I just wouldn't make it a draft strategy since the chances of finding a future starter are so low.

Chances of finding a future starter in rounds 5-7 overall are low.  You gotta just go with comparisons on tape/athleticism and your gut at that point.  So like the rest of the draft really it's just less talked about if you miss at that point cause everyone else is missing too.

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3 hours ago, brewman said:

In my opinion, physical tools are not what make/break a QB, but the intangibles.  Decision making, pocket awareness, poise, processing speed, etc. are the differentiators, and I don't believe they can be taught. 

Franks lacks in the intangibles.

Matt had all those issues but developed into a really good QB. I believe they can be taught. 

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