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if ELITE QB available at #4, tell me how that's not the best pick - I don't think you can convince me


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DISCLAIMER - NOT THE TOPIC:  As we know,  Matt has been elite QB for much of his career and has never been less than above average - even in the less impressive years.   I tip my hat to him, glad we drafted him - glad he's a Falcon and there is a case to be made that he is the best Falcon in the history of the franchise - the only others in consideration are Julio Jones and Tommy Nobis.   Obviously Mike Kenn had a stellar career and others - most of the truly elites had such a short run - Jamal Anderson and Deion Sanders - that they don't even bare mentioning - anyway,  if this topic turns into all-time Falcons, I will delete it.    Main point in mentioning is so this doesn't get turned into "g-dawg's a Matt Ryan hater" - because I'm not and my 15yrs on this messageboard bares it out.    I do criticize him from time-to-time and not a total homer but I'm a net positive fan on Matt Ryan.   I do see some slippage and don't foresee him playing as well as Brady into his late 30's and 40's. Brady is the GOAT and not a real human.

 

Onto the topic at Hand - "if an ELITE QB available at #4, you cannot convince me how that's not the best pick."

As you all know, this is a very good QUARTERBACK draft - is it great?  only time will tell but it certainly could be.   You probably need 3-4 years to truly render the quarterback grade on the 2021 draft but I believe it has the chance to be a truly great class.

The Class as currently ranked by the NFL media:  (1) Trevor Lawrence-Clemson,  (2) Zach Wilson-BYU,  (3) Justin Fields-Ohio State, (4) Trey Lance-NDSU,  (5) Mac Jones-Alabama,  (6) Kyle Trask-Florida

 

To me,  with this QB class it's "go big or go home" - you are either drafting your future starter and you believe in him or you don't.   I am aware of the exceptions of all-time greats and current greats selected after the 1st round but that doesn't change the fact that the majority of NFL QBs in the modern age that are starters or become starters and elite go early (Brady/Wilson notwithstanding).

To skip over a potential franchise altering Quarterback at #4 to draft another position and build around a 36 yr old QB whose best days are behind him and whose mobility and playmaking have always been limited just isn't a good plan - IF YOU (TERRY FONTENOT) really believes that a QB in this draft available at #4 is a franchise standard barer for 15 years.  

As you all are, I am excited about Arthur Smith, the new offense, hopefully a revived running game and a real defensive coordinator who says things like  "all ELEVEN positions on defense will rush the quarterback and the offense isn't going to know from where it is coming."   Coaching matters and this team will likely be coached better than it was.  Having said all of that - there are too many teams with better 53 man rosters with better stars that make more plays and have more depth - unless you see the Falcons climbing over these teams in the next two years w/ Penei Sewell or Kyle Pitts or Patrick Surtain or some glorious trade-down - AND - you as GM believe their is a franchise-altering QB is available at #4 - YOU TAKE THE QUARTERBACK - PERIOD.

We all do our mock drafts and our mock free agency every year believing the Falcons are going to fix all their problems in one off-season and we are going to draw this "Royal Flush" of a hand where it all works out and you get 6-7 impact guys - that just almost never happens.     Right now the BUCS are better, the RAMS are better, the PACKERS are better,  the SAINTS, even w/o a QB are better.   The BEARS are a qb away from being a huge threat.

The Falcons roster is at a real low point now and it's time we acknowledge it -  We have 3-4 guys that can play on defense, we have an aging QB and stud WR and we have an offensive line that, for all the investment recently, has been extremely poor.  We have no running game.  We are over the salary cap and as long as Matt and Julio are on the team with their huge caps - there is limited things Terry Fontenot can do.

I don't give TWO SHEOTS about 2021 - as if we don't go QB,  you are looking at a best case-scenario of probably going from 4-12 to 9-7 - that is the best case scenario - would that be more fun? absolutely it would.   Does that get you in the playoffs?  NO, not in most years - even if you got to the playoffs, do you even win a playoff game? NO

I am in this for a SUPERBOWL - nothing else.    Build a team that can win a SuperBowl and lengthen your time-horizon to do so.    Could Matt Ryan win you a SuperBowl right now?  if you put Matt Ryan on the St. Louis Rams or San Francisco 69ers, could he be part of a superbowl team?  perhaps.   Would he be "the reason"? NO.     By the time Fontenot gets "his team" - if he is a truly good GM (to be determined) - not only will Matt not be "the reason" the Falcons could win the SB, I'm not even sure he would be the "system QB" that could get it done - this roster is a 2-3 year rebuild - one extra stud OLineman or Tight End or Cornerback isn't going to open up a Superbowl in 2022 or 2023 - it just isn't.

As Falcons fans, we all want to believe our team is close......we see it here every day - and that's fine, there is no fun in being negative and preaching doom and gloom - partly why I enjoy the off-season on TATF more than visiting during the season - in the off-season, hope springs eternal and in-season, 5 games in when the Falcons are 0-5 or 1-4 - this place can be miserable.

 

You are Terry Fontenot

You want to build YOUR TEAM

You don't want to "add on" to Thomas Dimitroff's team

You want to build a dynasty

You want it to last a decade or more

You want to open up the window

Julio Jones is 32 years old

Matt Ryan will be 36 years old to start the season

This is Dimitroff's roster

it's not your roster - it's not close to the roster you want to build

 

Most of you know by now that I strongly advocate for Justin Fields - I have seen him up and close and personal since his junior year at Harrison High - I have seen him not in the Ohio State offense.  I saw him throw three dimes at UGA when he finally got to play a half of football - his talent - his skills - they are ELITE.    Does he need seasoning at NFL level?  Absolutely.       But this guy is a game-changer - he can ALTER the game.    Trevor Lawrence is more of a finished product and was in more pro-style offense at Clemson and his head coach didn't waste his Freshman year like Kirby did at UGA.      I believe w/ that lost Freshman season and the shortened COVID year, he's a little undervalued by the NFL media and casual fans.  I understand the criticisms but they are more - in my opinion - based on the Ohio State offense and failure of other, much less talented OSU QBs at NFL level than anything else.   Remember when "Penn State running backs" were the "snake-bit position/school" and it got into everyone's heads - then Larry Johnson came along.    Forget Ohio State.....forget the OSU QBs of Christmas Past - look at the talent.   look at the PRODUCTION.   look at the TD/INT ratio.   This guy's a beast - is he ready to be a "Day #1" starter in the NFL?  No.   Why not?  He just needs more experience and he will have to adjust to a new offense....Will he be ready by 2022?  Yes, I believe he will and 2022 will be his effective rookie season as he would back-up Matt and learn the NFL game and what it's like to be a pro.

Has Ohio State's Justin Fields played his last college game? | The Blade

I am also highly intrigued by both Zach Wilson and Trey Lance.   I know many have placed Wilson as the clear#2 - I don't agree necessarily with this as I would take Fields at #2 but I do like Wilson - and I do like Trey Lance.   Clearly Lance is the youngest, played the worst competition and is the riskiest player of the 4 - but I like him.     I am glad that both Fontenot and Arthur Smith attended his workout and I expect those two to be at Fields and Wilson's workout as well - even if they ultimately don't take at quarterback at #4 - they need to investigate all 4 thoroughly and vet their talent, their character/leadership and their tape and physical info.

BYU football: This Super Bowl-winning QB would draft Zach Wilson No. 1 -  Deseret NewsPotential spring FCS playoffs leveled with NDSU's Trey Lance declaring for  NFL Draft | Montana State University Bobcats | billingsgazette.com

It's safe to say that two QBs will be gone by the time the Falcons go on the clock at #4 - right now, it seems likely the two gone are Trevor and Zach (talk about frat-boy names :D ).    The #3 pick with the Dolphins feels like a "trade spot" to me but anything could happen there as well - Dolphins could take a QB, I just don't believe they would - they would either trade the pick for more draft equity or trade it to Texans(and more) for DeShaun Watson.

One thing we know for sure - at least one of the 4 QBs I just listed will be available at #4.    I know many think you can trade down and get Trey Lance - I'm not so sure about that.     If  Lawrence, Fields or Wilson were at #4 and I was Falcons GM, today knowing what I know today - I would take either of those three.       Lance? I wouldn't commit to that yet but I might.

If you draft an ELITE QB at #4, you have opened your SuperBowl window up from 2023-2035 - if Fontenot is a great GM and can build out the rest of the roster.   The hardest piece to get is the elite QB - and he has a chance to do it now with his first draft on what may be his highest pick he gets in his tenure as a GM - in a year where there is a potential elite guy there at #4.

The 2021 Falcons aren't going to a Superbowl

The 2022 Falcons aren't going to a Superbowl

 

Take the quarterback if you believe in him, Terry

It's the best move you can make for the long-term success of the Falcons franchise and your career as a GM

Do it

pull the trigger.

 

 

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I don’t think anyone disagrees with you on if “an ELITE qb is available at 4...then take him.”    The difference is you seem to be convinced all the QB’s are elite. Others are not 

DISCLAIMER - NOT THE TOPIC:  As we know,  Matt has been elite QB for much of his career and has never been less than above average - even in the less impressive years.   I tip my hat to him, glad we d

This thread is so pointless. You're literally yelling at us that you're right and no argument can be made to say otherwise. You might as well have made a topic entitled, "I'm an arrogant jer

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Just now, JD dirtybird21 said:

I don’t think anyone disagrees with you on if “an ELITE qb is available at 4...then take him.” 
 

The difference is you seem to be convinced all the QB’s are elite. Others are not 

I agree w/ you that a lot of TATF-ers (fun to say) don't believe most of these QBs are elite and that is the reason they don't want to take some (or all) at #4.

however, there are some that just don't want to take a QB - no matter what.

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Right or wrong, kudos for the book🙂

I'm ambivolent about who to draft but I think a stud QB would be the best possible pick. I also agree that Ryan is only here another year or two and very likely with diminishing returns. I also agree that thinking the Falcons are actual contenders in the short-term is pom-pom chearleader crap instead of intelligent fandom

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5 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I don’t think anyone disagrees with you on if “an ELITE qb is available at 4...then take him.” 
 

The difference is you seem to be convinced all the QB’s are elite. Others are not 

This is where I'm at. I'm not in love with any of these QBs, Fields is the only one where I'd say I'm close to that but even he needs time to learn the system and ideally sit for a year. With the "elite" argument I'd agree - if Burrow was there at 4, I'd take him - but no prospect in this draft really has that kind of certainty in my mind. Even Burrow might just get beat to **** and David Carr'd out of the league, that's the problem with not building a team before taking your QB and wasting resources. And I straight up don't think a QB will be BPA at 4, and when you're picking that early that's the only route to take imho.

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1 minute ago, tbhawksfan said:

Right or wrong, kudos for the book🙂

I'm ambivolent about who to draft but I think a stud QB would be the best possible pick. I also agree that Ryan is only here another year or two and very likely with diminishing returns. I also agree that thinking the Falcons are actual contenders in the short-term is pom-pom chearleader crap instead of intelligent fandom

i believe the downfall of many thinking the Falcons will be quicker contender is just because they believe in the coaching hire and that will make the ultimate difference.

I believe the Falcons made a good coaching hire - I like the profile and history of Arthur Smith - but you gotta have enough dudes to win a SuperBowl - and that isn't going to happen in next two seasons w/ Matt and Julio not being the Matt & Julio of 2016 .

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That's where I am with it. Matt is one of my favorite all time Falcons but I'd like to have the replacement in place just in case his play falls off a cliff in the next 1-3 years.

If you think one of the QB's can be the guy for the foreseeable future then you make that decision. The 1st round isn't the only round where we can trade down and get more picks for talent (pick 35 is an interesting spot).

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

i believe the downfall of many thinking the Falcons will be quicker contender is just because they believe in the coaching hire and that will make the ultimate difference.

I believe the Falcons made a good coaching hire - I like the profile and history of Arthur Smith - but you gotta have enough dudes to win a SuperBowl - and that isn't going to happen in next two seasons w/ Matt and Julio not being the Matt & Julio of 2016 .

Yeah, but if you mention that they get all in their feelings

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I agree with practically everything. I'm not sold on Lance or Newman. But I'm not a QB whisperer either. I do like Trask a lot and I'm on the fence about Wilson and Fields.

But if AS and TF thinks one of these guys is a franchise QB for many years, yeah they can take him and I'll stay on the optimistic side. I think they're all overhyped, Lawrence included (possible exception being Trask - everyone pretty much says he's a backup at best).

But I think if we trade back and can get a first round pick next year (2022), and start fixing other shortcomings, I'm on board with that too.

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for the next 2-3 years. If they're improving the roster and making things fun to watch, I can live with that.

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I genuinely could care less who we take.  In any other year, I'd say a QB would be a strong selection.  However, this season we find ourselves in somewhat precarious circumstances with total players and a not insurmountable cap situation.  For me, this is definitely the year that leveraging that spot for multiple picks, for this year and perhaps next, is the more logical choice.  Draft capital enables you to build a team on a more solid foundation.

If TF goes QB, he's clearly more qualified to make that choice than anyone here.  And, we don't have to agree.  But, I trust in him, until I don't.

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Regardless of my opinion or other Falcons fans opinions, if Terry and AS believe there is a truly elite QB at #4 they will pull the trigger. They have too.

I personally don't see any as elite. I see fans and folks wanting to make them elite because of how QB starved the league is and the talent they have shown in spurts. 

Talented QB prospects yes. Elite, I feel that is a stretch. Just my opinion. 

But I digress. If TF feels one is elite and drafts him at #4.... I will root like **** for em. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

i believe the downfall of many thinking the Falcons will be quicker contender is just because they believe in the coaching hire and that will make the ultimate difference.

I believe the Falcons made a good coaching hire - I like the profile and history of Arthur Smith - but you gotta have enough dudes to win a SuperBowl - and that isn't going to happen in next two seasons w/ Matt and Julio not being the Matt & Julio of 2016 .

This is the great debate as some think we really are a SB talented team and some who do not. We should find out real quick what AS and TF think too. Unless this mandate to win now is really true, that is my real fear, if we are trying to bandage this now 5 year old team(from the SB) again to placate a 80+ owner.

 

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1 minute ago, abcranford2 said:

It just doesn't make sense to me.   Many "elite" qbs have been ruined by going to bad teams. 

The main reason teams have been successful with young qbs is because of the roster flexibility that comes with a rookie contract.   For that reason alone it doesn't make sense. 

Good point although Vick was hella fun to watch and we still pretty much sucked across the board everywhere else. 😂😂

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Just now, PointSwayzee said:

This is the great debate as some think we really are a SB talented team and some who do not. We should find out real quick what AS and TF think too. Unless this mandate to win now is really true, that is my real fear, if we are trying to bandage this now 5 year old team(from the SB) again to placate a 80+ owner.

 

I don't think anyone here thinks we are a SB talented team. If they do, please stand up.

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2 minutes ago, hjerry said:

This thread is so pointless.

You're literally yelling at us that you're right and no argument can be made to say otherwise.

You might as well have made a topic entitled, "I'm an arrogant jerk and you're all idiots"

i clearly delineated what this thread was in the title - you could have just skipped over it, but yet.....you did not ;)

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Just now, Sui_Generis said:

Regardless of my opinion or other Falcons fans opinions, if Terry and AS believe there is a truly elite QB at #4 they will pull the trigger. They have too.

I personally don't see any as elite. I see fans and folks wanting to make them elite because of how QB starved the league is and the talent they have shown in spurts. 

Talented QB prospects yes. Elite, I feel that is a stretch. Just my opinion. 

But I digress. If TF feels one is elite and drafts him at #4.... I will root like **** for em. 

 

 

Exactly.  We have two qbs that have been hyped up since they were in high school.  It's just hype. 

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5 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

The only elite qb in this class is lawrence and he won't be there. Every other qb is surrounded with question marks.

I'm sure there's more than that, but who's to say. Maybe it's not even Lawrence (the elite QB). We'll know in a few years.

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