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How valuable is the 4th Overall Pick?


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13 minutes ago, Faithful Falcon said:

I've been seeing this a lot lately. Saying that this pick is very attractive to teams wanting to move up. My concern is, how much leverage is in that pick? Considering the 3 teams that pick before that each has two picks in the first round.

It's attractive in 2 ways.

1. Teams that arent looking for a QB. It's pretty likley that the highest rated player on several teams draft boards will still be there at #4.

2. Teams that are looking for a QB. It's also likely that at least 2 QB's will go before pick 4. There's going to be a team out there that will be licking their chops for either Fields or Wilson.

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2 hours ago, Faithful Falcon said:

My concern is, how much leverage is in that pick? Considering the 3 teams that pick before that each has two picks in the first round.

You just answered your own question.

Jacksonville will take Lawrence. Then, the Jets and especially Miami possess little incentive to trade down since they both pick at least three times during the top 50.

Ergo, the best potential trade target is Atlanta.

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1 hour ago, GATXBOI said:

Some mocks have Chi or WSH giving up it's first three picks plus either 2022 1st or 2nd/4th

That’s the ONLY way I see a trade down happening. You don’t pass up on three firsts. 

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Here are some comparable trades in the top 10 from recent history:

In 2008, New England traded #7 and #164 to New Orleans for #10 and #78

In 2008, Baltimore traded #8 to Jacksonville for #26, #71, #89, and #125

In 2009, Cleveland traded #5 for #17, #52, and 3 declining veterans

In 2011, Cleveland traded #6 to us for #26, #59, #124 plus a 1st and 4th in 2012

In 2012, Minnesota traded #3 to Cleveland for #4, #118, #139, and #211

In 2012, St. Louis traded #2 to Washington for #6 and #39, plus a 1st in 2013 and a 1st in 2014

In 2012, St. Louis then traded #6 (from WAS) to Dallas for #14 and #45

In 2012, Tampa Bay traded #5 to Jacksonville for #7 and #101

In 2013, Oakland traded #3 to Miami for #12 and #42

In 2014, Cleveland traded #4 to Buffalo for #9 plus a 1st and 4th in 2015

In 2016, San Francisco traded #2 to Chicago for #3, #67, #111 plus a 3rd in 2017

 

If a team wants to move up to #4, we should be able to get a pretty solid return... especially if it is for Wilson or Fields. There could be a bidding war for either, given how many teams are in the market for a starting QB.

If I were GM, I'd be looking for at least a 1st and 2nd this year plus a 1st next year (similar to the 2012 trade between Rams and WFT for RGIII).

The Lions could be a really good trade partner, given they have extra future 1st round picks from LAR to trade with. And moving down from 4 to 7 still would let us pick a top tier talent.

 

 

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Value to me, if you're not going from a chart of some kind, is subjective.  But, we are in a good spot.  And really there is no nightmare scenario here.  I thought if QB go 1,2,3 we might struggle to trade the pick.  But, with a run on QB might actually work in our favor for someone a bit more desperate to get #4.  

Unlikely, but, I think we are ultimately in a good place.

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9 hours ago, blizzard_falcon said:

Here are some comparable trades in the top 10 from recent history:

In 2008, New England traded #7 and #164 to New Orleans for #10 and #78

In 2008, Baltimore traded #8 to Jacksonville for #26, #71, #89, and #125

In 2009, Cleveland traded #5 for #17, #52, and 3 declining veterans

In 2011, Cleveland traded #6 to us for #26, #59, #124 plus a 1st and 4th in 2012

In 2012, Minnesota traded #3 to Cleveland for #4, #118, #139, and #211

In 2012, St. Louis traded #2 to Washington for #6 and #39, plus a 1st in 2013 and a 1st in 2014

In 2012, St. Louis then traded #6 (from WAS) to Dallas for #14 and #45

In 2012, Tampa Bay traded #5 to Jacksonville for #7 and #101

In 2013, Oakland traded #3 to Miami for #12 and #42

In 2014, Cleveland traded #4 to Buffalo for #9 plus a 1st and 4th in 2015

In 2016, San Francisco traded #2 to Chicago for #3, #67, #111 plus a 3rd in 2017

 

If a team wants to move up to #4, we should be able to get a pretty solid return... especially if it is for Wilson or Fields. There could be a bidding war for either, given how many teams are in the market for a starting QB.

If I were GM, I'd be looking for at least a 1st and 2nd this year plus a 1st next year (similar to the 2012 trade between Rams and WFT for RGIII).

The Lions could be a really good trade partner, given they have extra future 1st round picks from LAR to trade with. And moving down from 4 to 7 still would let us pick a top tier talent.

 

 

The very best scenario would be to trade down just a couple of spots to like #6 for a couple of extra picks then trade down again to around the 10-15 area for a couple more and still be in position for a big time player between 10-15.

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It's very situational. And our options are influenced by what the Dolhins do (and also, the Jests BTW). But I have to believe we're going to have several offers on the table depending on who slips. I'd drop down to #10 if we got a second rounder out of it (presumably #42 or better) but I'd hope we could get more.

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