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Record vs $$ Spent in Free Agency 2017-2020


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Outside of TD trading up too much in round one and never trading down, this was his biggest miss in my eyes.  But they go hand in hand.  Because you trade up you lose role players and depth, when that happens you are forced to over pay for a need in free agency.  Although it won’t show it here, he couldn’t spend much at all in previous few years because of previous over spends and top heavy contracts to players.

 

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We spent our $ re-signing the best players from 2016.

We probably should have let 1 or 2 players go in order to keep the cap in better balance, but I can understand the temptation to keep the core of the 2016 team together. 

Easy to look back with the benefit of hindsight and criticise some of those moves now, but the players we resigned all performed at a high level before being resigned, and most looked like very reasonable contracts at the time.

Sometimes it just comes down to luck too. Typical of us to resign Free and then he picks up a bad concussion in his next game and doesn’t look like the same again.

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After watching NFL free agency now for decades, these results are conclusive.   Heavy Free Agent spending on other teams free agents simply isn't a recipe for success and it really is as simple as this:

The team w/ the player they are letting go to free agency - there is a good reason they let them go - if they were truly worth the market bearing contract the current team would simply retain the player.   Mistakes generally aren't made by teams when they let these players go to free agency - especially the players that will get a top of their position type of contract.

No team knows the free agent like the current team - and they are letting him pass into free agency when said team has tools to retain said player.

Buyer Beware

Top of the market free agency is a losing strategy

Always has been. ;)

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57 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

After watching NFL free agency now for decades, these results are conclusive.   Heavy Free Agent spending on other teams free agents simply isn't a recipe for success and it really is as simple as this:

The team w/ the player they are letting go to free agency - there is a good reason they let them go - if they were truly worth the market bearing contract the current team would simply retain the player.   Mistakes generally aren't made by teams when they let these players go to free agency - especially the players that will get a top of their position type of contract.

No team knows the free agent like the current team - and they are letting him pass into free agency when said team has tools to retain said player.

Buyer Beware

Top of the market free agency is a losing strategy

Always has been. ;)

Bro just stop it. Dimi was sorry as hail at every level of free agency, but even he hit on a few top of the market free agents.

See The Burner, Mack, Poe, Sanu, Ice Bryant, etc.

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26 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Bro just stop it. Dimi was sorry as hail at every level of free agency, but even he hit on a few top of the market free agents.

See The Burner, Mack, Poe, Sanu, Ice Bryant, etc.

As old as you are Methuselah,  if you haven’t seen by now that free agency is a train ticket to nowhere, then you don’t have the capability to learn from history.

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

As old as you are Methuselah,  if you haven’t seen by now that free agency is a train ticket to nowhere, then you don’t have the capability to learn from history.

Bwahahahahahaha. We went 56-24 (.700) when the Burner was on the squad. Went to the playoffs four out of five of those years.

We've gone 57-71 (.445) since he left with only two out of eight playoff berths. I'd say he was our ticket to quite a bit of success.

 

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11 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

As old as you are Methuselah,  if you haven’t seen by now that free agency is a train ticket to nowhere, then you don’t have the capability to learn from history.

Didnt the bucs just win a super bowl mainly via free agency? It's almost as if there's multiple ways to build a team and win

 

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13 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Didnt the bucs just win a super bowl mainly via free agency? It's almost as if there's multiple ways to build a team and win

 

Pretty sure we signed more players in FA than the Bucs did, so if we had won the SB does that mean we won it mainly through FA?

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17 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Didnt the bucs just win a super bowl mainly via free agency? It's almost as if there's multiple ways to build a team and win

 

Actually the way to build a winner is through the draft, free agency and trades.

G-Dawg is a draftfreak that starts tanking in week 5. Dude just flat out loves the draft.

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21 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Didnt the bucs just win a super bowl mainly via free agency? It's almost as if there's multiple ways to build a team and win

 

And we went to the Superbowl 2 times and 2 additional nfc championships thanks in large part to free agents that we signed or guys we traded for

We don't go to the Superbowl in 98 with out guys like Ray Buchanan, Chris Chandler, Cornelius Bennett, Bob Christian.

nor do we go to the nfc championships in 04 or 12 with out Dunn, Weiner,Turner, Peterson,Tony G, Samuel Samuel.

We don't go to the super bowl in 16 with out guys like Mack, Chester, Sanu, Freeny etc.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Actually the way to build a winner is through the draft, free agency and trades.

G-Dawg is a draftfreak that starts tanking in week 5. Dude just flat out loves the draft.

Tanker boys should be fans of Jets, Jags OR some bottom feeders for past two decades. You can tank and rebuild many times for years. Winning is allergic for the tanker mockers.

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2 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Actually the way to build a winner is through the draft, free agency and trades.

G-Dawg is a draftfreak that starts tanking in week 5. Dude just flat out loves the draft.

I have posted maybe one mock in 2021.

free agency is not a get rich quick.  The huge impact guys from free agency are a very small percentage.   You bring up Turner and another Brady and those are extreme examples of success.  
 

For every big dollar free agent success story there are 7-8 that are failures.

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1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

I have posted maybe one mock in 2021.

free agency is not a get rich quick.  The huge impact guys from free agency are a very small percentage.   You bring up Turner and another Brady and those are extreme examples of success.  
 

For every big dollar free agent success story there are 7-8 that are failures.

Sounds like the draft.

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2 hours ago, g-dawg said:

I have posted maybe one mock in 2021.

free agency is not a get rich quick.  The huge impact guys from free agency are a very small percentage.   You bring up Turner and another Brady and those are extreme examples of success.  
 

For every big dollar free agent success story there are 7-8 that are failures.

I’m not saying load up on top shelf free agents every year. I personally think you should fill immediate needs with mid level free agents, build for the future with the draft and pull off trades for guys like TonyG, Foxy, Levitre and Hurst with picks in the second through seventh where the trading teams eat the dead money.

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7 hours ago, ukfalc said:

We spent our $ re-signing the best players from 2016.

We probably should have let 1 or 2 players go in order to keep the cap in better balance, but I can understand the temptation to keep the core of the 2016 team together. 

Easy to look back with the benefit of hindsight and criticise some of those moves now, but the players we resigned all performed at a high level before being resigned, and most looked like very reasonable contracts at the time.

Sometimes it just comes down to luck too. Typical of us to resign Free and then he picks up a bad concussion in his next game and doesn’t look like the same again.

Freeman and Truffant were pretty obvious walk candidates. 

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20 hours ago, Rings said:

Outside of TD trading up too much in round one and never trading down, this was his biggest miss in my eyes.  But they go hand in hand.  Because you trade up you lose role players and depth, when that happens you are forced to over pay for a need in free agency.  Although it won’t show it here, he couldn’t spend much at all in previous few years because of previous over spends and top heavy contracts to players.

 

Well, if I'm reading this chart correctly, the guys who are high on the chart won the most games and the guys to the right of the chart spent the most money in free agency.

It looks to me like the real winners here are the guys in the upper left quadrant, who spent less money and won more games.

If you look at the guys who spent the most money (by quadrant) only 1 of those teams is fully in the square - Buffalo.    If you look at the two quadrants with the most wins - the majority of them are in the lower spending free agency bracket while the majority of high spenders are in the bottom quadrant for wins.

 

What I take from this is that it's not how much you spend - but how well you spend in free agency and the rest is up to the personnel, scheme and coaching.

 

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