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13 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

In this situation our cap space with Ryan and without Ryan if he traded 6/1:

• With Ryan: 2022 - 54 mill.  2023 - 138 mill

• Trade Ryan: 2022 - 70 mill. 2023 - 175 mill

Perfect window to start puttting solid pieces around a young dynamic QB. They can really set themselves up to have an offense more reliant on scheme than talent with talented playmakers sprinkled in on defense.

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I don't start a lot of topics, I tend to piggy back off of others and either agree or disagree and why.  But I figured I would spell out what I'd like to happen, or not happen, this draft.   What

This is exactly what I don't want.  1) We can't afford to trade up 2) We certainly shouldn't do it for a position that is the least valuable, most replaceable and shortest lifespan in the NFL.  Javont

Harris, while I like him generally, just seems like a waste. As I’ve said before, treat RBs like bic lighters. Once they finish their rookie deal, franchise them a year if they’re great. Otherwise, yo

16 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I love Ryan but also understand the idea of drafting a QB if all the in house evaluations are in agreement that QB X is a high levrl franchise QB.

If that happened, Ryan’s contract isn’t too difficult to trade.  Doing so this year results in 17 mill dead money and frees up 23 mill in cap space.  Same will apply for 2022.  The me that’s not prohibitive.  So long as you open up more cap space than the amount of dead money created, the trade makes sense.  
 

In this situation our cap space with Ryan and without Ryan if he traded 6/1:

• With Ryan: 2022 - 54 mill.  2023 - 138 mill

• Trade Ryan: 2022 - 70 mill. 2023 - 175 mill

 

So the girl here complaining about the cap the most, the girl who says the same wrong things over and over and over and over, the same point that only she agrees with, complaining about the cap and players under contract repeatedly at every chance she can wants to fix our cap situation by paying players not to be here?  Lmfao.  Plus you are wrong yet again the dead cap in your scenario would be 26.5m.  Along with the nearly 18m dead cap this year your master genius plan to fix this cap that ONLY YOU are worried about is to trade our most valuable player and eat over 44 million to do so?

Bravo.  Your brilliance on display once again.  We all bow before your amazing football mind.  What a ******* joke lmao

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5 minutes ago, athell said:

So the girl here complaining about the cap the most, the girl who says the same wrong things over and over and over and over, the same point that only she agrees with, complaining about the cap and players under contract repeatedly at every chance she can wants to fix our cap situation by paying players not to be here?  Lmfao.  Plus you are wrong yet again the dead cap in your scenario would be 26.5m.  Along with the nearly 18m dead cap this year your master genius plan to fix this cap that ONLY YOU are worried about is to trade our most valuable player and eat over 44 million to do so?

Bravo.  Your brilliance on display once again.  We all bow before your amazing football mind.  What a ******* joke lmao

Cocain in a **** of a drug

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14 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Cocain in a **** of a drug

I agree...you need help.  This ain't it.

And to be sure...one of us is a chronic liar, who edits and deletes tweets to fit his lies and narratives, who plaguerizes writer after writer in hopes of portraying himself to be smarter than he is which in reality is not smart at all, who uses personal information against individuals when feeling cornered, who has such Daddy issues that they seek likes on an internet forum like oddly enough a Cocaine hit, and one of us is me.  You can deflect and lie and scam all you want but we all know who you are. 

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Good post and agree much with you.  Of course a trading party must be involved but let's just say (and know) that's never guaranteed.  If we pick at four and Sewell is there, I think we likely have to go there.  I believe in building the trenches and although we have tried to do that several times, we do it again. 

Then we get a good RB when we can.  I do think we'll get defensive line help in the draft and secondary help as well and even in FA.  If we can build and establish an effective running game, then we won't have to lean on defense so much.  How many games have we lost because we couldn't hold a lead due to a lack of a solid running game?  We even lost a SB that way! 

Establishing a running game IS a defense and it allows your defense to stay fresh longer.  We still have a really good passing offense but little to no running game and have been that way it seems like since Turner was here.  Sure, we had a good scheme when Shanny was OC, but we didn't have the big man power it down-your-throat like we had w/Turner.  If things fall like this, I believe most/all of our FA signings will be DL and secondary and that we'll gather a few picks from the draft.  Got to remember, we have an offensive minded HC for the first time in forever it seems, and I feel like this will the way that AS will address things on this team. 

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1 hour ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I love Ryan but also understand the idea of drafting a QB if all the in house evaluations are in agreement that QB X is a high levrl franchise QB.

If that happened, Ryan’s contract isn’t too difficult to trade.  Doing so this year results in 17 mill dead money and frees up 23 mill in cap space.  Same will apply for 2022.  The me that’s not prohibitive.  So long as you open up more cap space than the amount of dead money created, the trade makes sense.  
 

In this situation our cap space with Ryan and without Ryan if he traded 6/1:

• With Ryan: Falcons have 54 mill in 2022 & 138 mill in 2023

• Trade Ryan: Falcons have 78 mill in 2022 & 175 mill in 2023

 

Problem is you can’t designate someone a post 6/1 trade like you can with cuts, it has to actually be after 6/1 to do that.  It’s extremely rare because rosters are already set, cap space already planned out or used up.  So unless a team has a QB get hurt, who isn’t their long term guy and they have a bunch of cap space to take on Ryan’s contract, its highly unlikely that happens.

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14 minutes ago, falconfansince66 said:

Good post and agree much with you.  Of course a trading party must be involved but let's just say (and know) that's never guaranteed.  If we pick at four and Sewell is there, I think we likely have to go there.  I believe in building the trenches and although we have tried to do that several times, we do it again. 

Then we get a good RB when we can.  I do think we'll get defensive line help in the draft and secondary help as well and even in FA.  If we can build and establish an effective running game, then we won't have to lean on defense so much.  How many games have we lost because we couldn't hold a lead due to a lack of a solid running game?  We even lost a SB that way! 

Establishing a running game IS a defense and it allows your defense to stay fresh longer.  We still have a really good passing offense but little to no running game and have been that way it seems like since Turner was here.  Sure, we had a good scheme when Shanny was OC, but we didn't have the big man power it down-your-throat like we had w/Turner.  If things fall like this, I believe most/all of our FA signings will be DL and secondary and that we'll gather a few picks from the draft.  Got to remember, we have an offensive minded HC for the first time in forever it seems, and I feel like this will the way that AS will address things on this team. 

I agree we need a really strong run game, I don’t believe we need a round one or two back to accomplish that.  It would nice to get a top guy, but that defense needs more attention than going offense in first two rounds like I’ve seen a lot of mocks on here.  

We also will have a pretty similar scheme on offense so personnel doesn’t need to change a ton, defense could look very different next year with Pees and he will need draft picks to get people for his scheme with us having limited cap space.  

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6 hours ago, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

I think Ryan will be fringe top 10 next season. I want him to be here for at least 1 more season but I just have to see truly exceptional play for it to be worth any longer of a stay in atlanta. 
Smith needs his contingency and Ryan needs his successor right now. The fruit that they can bear from  the potential melding of talent and intelligence could catapult this franchise from the dark ages.

Implement the scheme and get a better feel for this roster instead of throwing a bunch of rookies on the team and hoping they win something meaningful.

All these get right back into it offseason plans are no different from TD’s mindset that got them into this position to begin with. Slow organic growth is the way. Time to put the 2016 blueprint in the trash.

Well , his contract runs through 2023, so my guess is he’s here until then. At least I hope so. 

Which is why I push back on you guys in such a rush on finding his successor. Next 3 years build a better roster so that when you are ready to draft a QB, he’s surrounded by a good team, which can’t help but give a rookie QB a higher likelihood of success. 
 

Agree with you about 2016. I hope Arthur brings a more balanced run/pass attack than we’ve seen the past few years.

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29 minutes ago, Rings said:

Problem is you can’t designate someone a post 6/1 trade like you can with cuts, it has to actually be after 6/1 to do that.  It’s extremely rare because rosters are already set, cap space already planned out or used up.  So unless a team has a QB get hurt, who isn’t their long term guy and they have a bunch of cap space to take on Ryan’s contract, its highly unlikely that happens.

That’s true.  But the avenue is still available if that’s the route they go

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4 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

That’s true.  But the avenue is still available if that’s the route they go

I mean, it could happen...but what team would plan on waiting to get their QB for 2021 some time in or after June? Would we really waste half of the offseason pretending with Matt and then move him to SF or something? Would the 49ers "plan" on that? That's where it's wishful thinking, but ya...it could happen. It's also one huge gamble without seeing the rookie even take a single snap. Like...wow. That's a bold risk.

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6 hours ago, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

It’s the strategy that got us in this mess. Why does the Saints landing there dream draft 3 years ago have any forbearance on the teams future endeavors? It’s irrelevant, it doesn’t matter what they did. I know the possibility is there sure. But even they couldn’t get it done with Sean Payton. It’s still no good reason to keep kicking it down the road. It’s starting to seem like real Stockholm Syndrome. 

It's pure strategy.

You're invalidating the Saints 4 year run.

Why?

A no-call?

SB or bust?

So, then you can ONLY follow the script of each time a team wins a SB? That's not reactive at all. :tiphat:

So, get Tom Brady...right? ;)

No, you build a strategy. Is the plan to not land multiple starters every draft?:huh:

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23 hours ago, Rings said:

One, if not all those backs will be available at 35.  There is zero need to trade up to get a back in the first.

There is definitely no way you can know who will be available at pick 35. For all you know Najee goes top 25 and someone takes one at the end of round 1 and the very beginning of round 2.

And that's even if we view all 3 equally. Which we probably don't. I highly doubt we are "lets make sure we get one of the 3 top RB's". 

We may have significant higher grades on Najee and Etienne than Williams. So yeah if we have significant higher grades on two of the 3 and one is taken then I have zero issue moving up a few spots. Especially if we trade back from #4. 

I'm fine with agreeing to disagree, but there's zero way you can say that one if not all will be available at #35 and that there is zero need to trade up 5 spots back into the 1st round. 

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6 minutes ago, Clark Kent™ said:

There is definitely no way you can know who will be available at pick 35. For all you know Najee goes top 25 and someone takes one at the end of round 1 and the very beginning of round 2.

And that's even if we view all 3 equally. Which we probably don't. I highly doubt we are "lets make sure we get one of the 3 top RB's". 

We may have significant higher grades on Najee and Etienne than Williams. So yeah if we have significant higher grades on two of the 3 and one is taken then I have zero issue moving up a few spots. Especially if we trade back from #4. 

I'm fine with agreeing to disagree, but there's zero way you can say that one if not all will be available at #35 and that there is zero need to trade up 5 spots back into the 1st round. 

"Getting who you want" wasn't the basis of his point though. It's a "take best remaining RB" rather than desperately going up for the others. Yeah, Najee would be a great addition to this team. Alas...we aren't a RB away to justify a trade up cost w/ the current roster. Then again, maybe the cap will be raised over a TV deal and we make some nice moves in FA? :shrug:

Just generalizing the value of RB and when a roster is in need, it likely isn't going to pay off if there is additional capital spent (multiple picks) to acquire said RB.

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5 hours ago, Rings said:

Problem is you can’t designate someone a post 6/1 trade like you can with cuts, it has to actually be after 6/1 to do that.  It’s extremely rare because rosters are already set, cap space already planned out or used up.  So unless a team has a QB get hurt, who isn’t their long term guy and they have a bunch of cap space to take on Ryan’s contract, its highly unlikely that happens.

But your saying, there's a chance?  😂

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3 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Getting who you want wasn't the basis of his point though. It's a take best remaining RB rather than desperately going for the other. Yeah, Najee would be a great addition to this team. Alas...we aren't a RB away for a trade up cost for the current roster. Then again, maybe the cap will be raised over a TV deal and we make some nice moves in FA? :shrug:

Just generalizing the value of RB and when a roster is in need, it likely isn't going to pay off if there is additional capital spent (multiple picks) to acquire said RB.

But who says which running back is best? Maybe the one or two we have high grades on is completely different from other teams. And we are talking about trading back into the end of round 1. Its not like we are sacrificing our entire draft for a RB. As complex as the draft process is, I can't imagine a team going into the draft saying "lets just get one of the top 3". 

I'm sure no one would be mad if a team traded up a few spots just so they could secure Alvin Kamara. If you believe in a dude then you get him. And again, we would be trading up only a few spots. Not sacrificing our entire draft. 

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6 minutes ago, Clark Kent™ said:

But who says which running back is best? Maybe the one or two we have high grades on is completely different from other teams. And we are talking about trading back into the end of round 1. Its not like we are sacrificing our entire draft for a RB. As complex as the draft process is, I can't imagine a team going into the draft saying "lets just get one of the top 3". 

I'm sure no one would be mad if a team traded up a few spots just so they could secure Alvin Kamara. If you believe in a dude then you get him. And again, we would be trading up only a few spots. Not sacrificing our entire draft. 

I get what you are saying, but even Alvin has great blocking in front of him. Besides, the Saints thought he was worth a 3rd round pick; arguably optimal "value" for a RB these days.

That's the draft trick, right? Which player is going to become what? Since they don't know, positional value comes into play. Hence, RBs falling.

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2 hours ago, Clark Kent™ said:

There is definitely no way you can know who will be available at pick 35. For all you know Najee goes top 25 and someone takes one at the end of round 1 and the very beginning of round 2.

And that's even if we view all 3 equally. Which we probably don't. I highly doubt we are "lets make sure we get one of the 3 top RB's". 

We may have significant higher grades on Najee and Etienne than Williams. So yeah if we have significant higher grades on two of the 3 and one is taken then I have zero issue moving up a few spots. Especially if we trade back from #4. 

I'm fine with agreeing to disagree, but there's zero way you can say that one if not all will be available at #35 and that there is zero need to trade up 5 spots back into the 1st round. 

That’s fair.  I’ll reword it.  I’d be willing to put money that one of those three backs are still available at pick 35.  The first back went at 32 last year.  Teams are figuring out that backs are easily replaceable even though fans have not.  KC only took a back because it was a luxury pick and their roster was stacked.

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6 minutes ago, jetpac said:

Did this man say that 2010 Packers defense carried Rogers to a Super Bowl? Good lord do people even watch the games?

He is right. NFCG packers defense won the game. Steelers with a potential 3 point lead in 4th quarter marching down the field to ice the SB. Clay Mathews makes an excellent play to force Mendenhall Fumble. That fumble set up Packers winning score. 

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Why not hitch your wagon to Ryan Julio for another 2 years.Man the regression hasn’t or looked like hitting as of yet.The Falcons could do a **** of a lot worse than stick with the mentioned.Scheme is key if we get Ryan in the right scheme with a run game and a defense it’s game on.

As for drafting a QB @ 4 if we do he starts.No chance I’m drafting someone that high to come and sit not a chance.If your drafting that high the future is now.Last time I looked future starts next season.

Draft down is ideal but for me I just hope we draft the guys on our board.BPA is an absolute myth.TF can say this to the fans and you can see fans lap it up as though the big boards there seeing in the media are aligned with TF & the Falcons which I doubt very much.

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10 hours ago, falcons007 said:

He is right. NFCG packers defense won the game. Steelers with a potential 3 point lead in 4th quarter marching down the field to ice the SB. Clay Mathews makes an excellent play to force Mendenhall Fumble. That fumble set up Packers winning score. 

Thank you. Never makes SB in first place without being carried.

It’s amazing the inability to objectively look at the facts on subjects like this but it only reveals ignorance in of itself.

But if you have a SB ring, logic doesn’t matter...hence the mindless “argument” it is. :shrug:

Why think? It does the thinking for you. Kind’ve like Joe Buck’s narration. :lol:

People are only as “smart” as the announcers allow them to be (if your opinions are just repeating theirs); and that’s more true than most will admit, especially if it were to challenge their beliefs. Such as Rodgers didn’t win a SB on his own merit and without a lot of help.

^Last QB to win a SB with a heavy favored offense/defense ratio was probably the Saints Drew Brees. Think about it. Of course, we should’ve been an even more egregious example but didn’t close the deal.

That said, the 2009 Saints became known for Bountygate and deliberate attempts to injure other players. Plus, their defense did make enough plays. It was very good in several areas:

They were 3rd in the league in INTs and had a great RZ defense; 2nd in the entire league!

^If we had that, we never lose vs Patriots in 2016; even with the dumb coaching. And before people cite a couple plays by the defense in that game; which did help, it was the LAST PLACE RZ defense in the entire NFL.

Translation: if you weren’t taking the ball away, you were giving up TDs. Isn’t that how the SB played out? We had to build a lead and hope the defense could make enough plays being ahead.

So, despite not being a great defense overall; the 2009 Saints, it was a top 5 unit in critical areas.

2016 was an extremely unlikely situation to be in: Making the SB and even leading late in it; was not normal for a team that unbalanced. Hence our wild ride of a season. Most of those one sided teams lose games and including failing to win a SB if they even get there. We became another one; even though we shouldn’t have. Truth can hurt.

The funny thing is, even if we merely had our 2017 Defensive RZ unit for the 2016 season, it’s probably enough given the improved RZ defense that year limited the scoring TD/FG ratios. Finally! It would’ve been enough if it held up and caused more FGs than TDs. 5th in RZ defense. Enter the Sark year 1 RZ playcall woes. Why can’t we get a complete team for once? Or even a team similar to the Mike Smith era Falcons with shots in the playoffs?

Alas, we never have much to write home about with our defense. Plus, being near dead last in running the ball to keep them off the field and run a clock out (i.e. “close games) yet some folks can’t figure out how this team isn’t winning lately?

Coaching and roster decisions. Your QB has never been the problem. You just expect a hero when they don’t exist.

Honorable mention would be the KC defense in 2019, yet even they stood up IN the 4th Q of the SB and made possible a comeback. Like, we’ve never seen Matt Ryan lead a team back when given more opportunities?

This dance is ridiculously low in value because it’s not even a fair fight; for the uninformed.

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Overall solid takes but I will always believe if you have access to a top QB, you pick him. You can never guarantee the right time to land a top 5-15 QB. You don't want to be like the Jets and land a top 5 pick when there isn't a good QB after #1 and you don't want to be an overall solid team without a great QB who never gets a high enough pick to get a great QB. 

That said, I have no idea if Wilson or Fields is that guy. 

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46 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

Overall solid takes but I will always believe if you have access to a top QB, you pick him. You can never guarantee the right time to land a top 5-15 QB. You don't want to be like the Jets and land a top 5 pick when there isn't a good QB after #1 and you don't want to be an overall solid team without a great QB who never gets a high enough pick to get a great QB. 

That said, I have no idea if Wilson or Fields is that guy. 

That’s fair.

Conversely, what if they believe Matt is rated at a level higher than most see and value building around him; believe he can physically stay at a high level similar to Brees or Brady? Given his lack of injury history and instability on offense wrt system and coach changes...

Just saying. It actually has as much to do with Ryan as it does with the actual evaluation of the possible QB at 4.

And if they are really that lights out, wow this draft may have 3 or 4 future All-Pros? That has to be the upside. Personally, I don’t see it. Maybe one star. 2 decent starters. Maybe 2 stars? But 3? We actually may trade up then, if Ryan’s valuation is low like many tend to believe and if there is a QB worth getting. :shrug:

Wouldn’t every team ahead of the Falcons; other than MAYBE Miami, not be interested in a QB more? Sam Darnold worth taking Sewell or a WR for? His rookie deal is almost up.

It’s so nuanced but IMO comes down to first what they believe about Ryan.

Then, how well these QBs really match up with their valuation of Matt. Then, if the 3rd QB taken is still valued over Matt’s 3-5 year projection? Ok. That’s about the only specific scenario I see them taking a QB at 4; presuming the draft falls with 2 QBs taken ahead of Atlanta.

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13 hours ago, Clark Kent™ said:

But who says which running back is best? Maybe the one or two we have high grades on is completely different from other teams. And we are talking about trading back into the end of round 1. Its not like we are sacrificing our entire draft for a RB. As complex as the draft process is, I can't imagine a team going into the draft saying "lets just get one of the top 3". 

I'm sure no one would be mad if a team traded up a few spots just so they could secure Alvin Kamara. If you believe in a dude then you get him. And again, we would be trading up only a few spots. Not sacrificing our entire draft. 

It doesn’t take much to trade up in the third round where Kamara went, it costs a lot more to trade up back into the first.  By doing so you are still giving away another depth player we desperately need.  Every year studs are available at pick 35.  Chubb was taken at 35 a couple years ago.  There is no need to trade up.

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