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My Hopes on the Draft


Rings
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1 hour ago, thanat0s said:

Well, I mean if the guy became an all pro and the team is contending for trophies. That’s the only scenario where an added top dollar tag would make sense. 
 

Otherwise, yeah, ditch him and reload.

Even those all pros tend to decline after those big contracts... maybe AP, but the Chris Johnsons etc, you name it.. i would rather spend that capital elsewhere. 

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Oh look another trade down 

17 hours ago, Rings said:

Again, those examples keep being brought up but they were during the old CBA, it’s apples to oranges to compare the two.  It doesn’t make sense to sit someone that long anymore.

Mahommes sat a whole year 

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20 hours ago, Rings said:

The biggest upside of moving on from a proven vet to a rookie QB is the cost savings, if you sit that player for the first two years of their career, you are throwing half that away and you close your window to surround them with talent.  The playoff AFC teams were filled with QBs on rookie deals still, Mahomes (new deal hasn't kicked in yet), Jackson, Allen, Mayfield.  When those QBs get paid, and those cap hits hit, they won't be able to stack the team around them and their job gets even harder and not all of them can carry a team with less talent to help.  You have to take advantage of that window, and we are not in a position to move on from Ryan for at least a year or two so this is why I would rather wait to see how he performs in Smith's scheme before pulling the trigger on a new QB.  

Ryan doesn’t deserve a wait and see approach. No one on this team does. I know you guys still have emotions tied up in Ryans legacy but it would be foolish for TF to forsake the future by waiting to see if the common denominator of choke jobs since 2012 is still a top 5 QB.

I know leaning on players that have consistently failed this franchise tingles all the feel good butterflies inside but you said it yourself large cap hits won’t allow teams to stack the roster around their QB. Not only do the falcons have a large QB cap hit they also have Julios cap hit. What Julio and Ryan offer relative to their cost hasn’t been worth it in the slightest. The whole league can see this except a select few that are complacent with there bias.

I’m sorry Rings, I have zero faith in these players and for good reason. I hope Fontenot & Smith make their own way instead trying to hitch their wagon to the Ryan & Julio show.

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On 2/20/2021 at 9:28 AM, Mister pudding said:

Unless a team has its sights on a specific qb that is sitting at #4 when we pick, trading down is a good theory on paper, but sometimes we act like it's a given. After that qb run, imo trading down twice will be virtually impossible seeing there may not be those blue chip defensive players to trade up for. If we do gather picks on any trade down, just stay put with those picks.. quality picks (esp rbs) will be available

It’s a given at 4.
 

Depending on where we land, Teams will be willing to trade up for Lance later in draft too. Plus trades are frequently made to draft non-QBs also. So yes, I think this year especially it could very well happen.

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4 hours ago, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

Ryan doesn’t deserve a wait and see approach. No one on this team does. I know you guys still have emotions tied up in Ryans legacy but it would be foolish for TF to forsake the future by waiting to see if the common denominator of choke jobs since 2012 is still a top 5 QB.

I know leaning on players that have consistently failed this franchise tingles all the feel good butterflies inside but you said it yourself large cap hits won’t allow teams to stack the roster around their QB. Not only do the falcons have a large QB cap hit they also have Julios cap hit. What Julio and Ryan offer relative to their cost hasn’t been worth it in the slightest. The whole league can see this except a select few that are complacent with there bias.

I’m sorry Rings, I have zero faith in these players and for good reason. I hope Fontenot & Smith make their own way instead trying to hitch their wagon to the Ryan & Julio show.

Ryan didn’t have a good season, but he’s still a Top 10-12 QB in league. A rational approach to offseason seems to be the OP’s approach.
 

While those in the draft QB crowd who are venting their frustrations such as posting having  “zero faith in the players” appears to be the ones with all “their of emotions tied up”.

Selah.

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4 hours ago, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

Ryan doesn’t deserve a wait and see approach. No one on this team does. I know you guys still have emotions tied up in Ryans legacy but it would be foolish for TF to forsake the future by waiting to see if the common denominator of choke jobs since 2012 is still a top 5 QB.

I know leaning on players that have consistently failed this franchise tingles all the feel good butterflies inside but you said it yourself large cap hits won’t allow teams to stack the roster around their QB. Not only do the falcons have a large QB cap hit they also have Julios cap hit. What Julio and Ryan offer relative to their cost hasn’t been worth it in the slightest. The whole league can see this except a select few that are complacent with there bias.

I’m sorry Rings, I have zero faith in these players and for good reason. I hope Fontenot & Smith make their own way instead trying to hitch their wagon to the Ryan & Julio show.

You can have zero faith in Ryan, you can also think Ryan and Julio are overpaid, and still comprehend it doesn’t make sense financially to move on or draft a QB for another year or two.

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47 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Ryan didn’t have a good season, but he’s still a Top 10-12 QB in league. A rational approach to offseason seems to be the OP’s approach.
 

While those in the draft QB crowd who are venting their frustrations such as posting having  “zero faith in the players” appears to be the ones with all “their of emotions tied up”.

Selah.

I think Ryan will be fringe top 10 next season. I want him to be here for at least 1 more season but I just have to see truly exceptional play for it to be worth any longer of a stay in atlanta. 
Smith needs his contingency and Ryan needs his successor right now. The fruit that they can bear from  the potential melding of talent and intelligence could catapult this franchise from the dark ages.

Implement the scheme and get a better feel for this roster instead of throwing a bunch of rookies on the team and hoping they win something meaningful.

All these get right back into it offseason plans are no different from TD’s mindset that got them into this position to begin with. Slow organic growth is the way. Time to put the 2016 blueprint in the trash.

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42 minutes ago, Rings said:

You can have zero faith in Ryan, you can also think Ryan and Julio are overpaid, and still comprehend it doesn’t make sense financially to move on or draft a QB for another year or two.

It makes too much sense to draft a QB now with our pick than to cross your fingers hoping any draft pick they have in the future will be enough to acquire a top rated guy barring any trade up.

Terry keeps hinting at this. The draft is where you get the talent and FA is where you fill the need. The mindset of having every draft pick being a huge contributor in they first year is for desperate franchises devoid of any talent and plan of the future.

 

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32 minutes ago, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

It makes too much sense to draft a QB now with our pick than to cross your fingers hoping any draft pick they have in the future will be enough to acquire a top rated guy barring any trade up.

Terry keeps hinting at this. The draft is where you get the talent and FA is where you fill the need. The mindset of having every draft pick being a huge contributor in they first year is for desperate franchises devoid of any talent and plan of the future.

 

In 2017 KC went from 27 to 10 to get Mahomes, Houston went 25 to 12 to get Watson same year.  When you need your guy, you can go get your guy.  You don’t need to be slotted to pick top five, or even ten, to get your QB.  Trade down when you don’t need your guy, like this year, build your roster up and then when you need your guy go get him and you have the luxury of plugging them into a much more talented roster.  
 

I don’t think every draft pick is going to contribute year one, whether you trade up, stay put or trade down, there are going to be misses or guys that need developed.  Wanting more picks and acquiring them is planning for the future just as much as your logic with taking a QB at 4, difference is trading down and getting more picks benefits you this year and in the future (likelihood on missing on each of those picks is low), while taking a QB at 4 only benefits the future (no guarantees they are good) and does nothing short term.

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2 minutes ago, Rings said:

In 2017 KC went from 27 to 10 to get Mahomes, Houston went 25 to 12 to get Watson same year.  When you need your guy, you can go get your guy.  You don’t need to be slotted to pick top five, or even ten, to get your QB.  Trade down when you don’t need your guy, like this year, build your roster up and then when you need your guy go get him and you have the luxury of plugging them into a much more talented roster.  
 

I don’t think every draft pick is going to contribute year one, whether you trade up, stay put or trade down, there are going to be misses or guys that need developed.  Wanting more picks and acquiring them is planning for the future just as much as your logic with taking a QB at 4, difference is trading down and getting more picks benefits you this year and in the future (likelihood on missing on each of those picks is low), while taking a QB at 4 only benefits the future (no guarantees they are good) and does nothing short term.

Great post.  Very valid points indeed.

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31 minutes ago, jetpac said:

You mean the yet another trade down that’s not going to happen thread? No prob. 

There were multiple bullet points on what I hope happens in the draft, only one of which was trading down, so it isn’t a trade down thread.  If you’re going to respond and have a crap attitude with people at least give some reasoning and add a little bit of value to the conversation or please don’t bother responding.  Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, Rings said:

I noticed you edited your last post to remove your snarky remark from that one just to add it to this one. 

On top of that there were multiple bullet points on what I hope happens in the draft, only one of which was trading down, so it isn’t a trade down thread.  If you’re going to respond and have a crap attitude with people at least give some reasoning and add a little bit of value to the conversation or please don’t bother responding.  Thanks.

*Cough* narrative *cough*

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20 minutes ago, Rings said:

In 2017 KC went from 27 to 10 to get Mahomes, Houston went 25 to 12 to get Watson same year.  When you need your guy, you can go get your guy.  You don’t need to be slotted to pick top five, or even ten, to get your QB.  Trade down when you don’t need your guy, like this year, build your roster up and then when you need your guy go get him and you have the luxury of plugging them into a much more talented roster.  
 

I don’t think every draft pick is going to contribute year one, whether you trade up, stay put or trade down, there are going to be misses or guys that need developed.  Wanting more picks and acquiring them is planning for the future just as much as your logic with taking a QB at 4, difference is trading down and getting more picks benefits you this year and in the future (likelihood on missing on each of those picks is low), while taking a QB at 4 only benefits the future (no guarantees they are good) and does nothing short term.

Of course you don’t have to be slotted top 5. But we are. With a QB over 35 taking up a good chunk of the cap with his sidekick taking his own personal chunk.

We’ve been lopsided on defense for who knows how long with the cap being siphoned into offense. This franchise got so comfortable with Matt they felt like KOETTER of all people would produce literally anything but passing yards.

You’re adamant on pigeonholing the immediate future of this franchise still trying to ride on Matts coattails. We’ve seen this same story way too many times to not place an egg in another basket. Fontenot is scouting the ever loving fuuck out of these QBs because he doesn’t want to look like a straight up doofus if he does decide to take another route with the draft. A contingency plan for Matt is already in place I guarantee you. 

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26 minutes ago, Rings said:

There were multiple bullet points on what I hope happens in the draft, only one of which was trading down, so it isn’t a trade down thread.  If you’re going to respond and have a crap attitude with people at least give some reasoning and add a little bit of value to the conversation or please don’t bother responding.  Thanks.

You started the crap attitude with you’re non needed little jab. Don’t cry when it comes back to you. Good day sir:

Edited by jetpac
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2 minutes ago, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

Of course you don’t have to be slotted top 5. But we are. With a QB over 35 taking up a good chunk of the cap with his sidekick taking his own personal chunk.

We’ve been lopsided on defense for who knows how long with the cap being siphoned into offense. This franchise got so comfortable with Matt they felt like KOETTER of all people would produce literally anything but passing yards.

You’re adamant on pigeonholing the immediate future of this franchise still trying to ride on Matts coattails. We’ve seen this same story way too many times to not place an egg in another basket. Fontenot is scouting the ever loving fuuck out of these QBs because he doesn’t want to look like a straight up doofus if he does decide to take another route with the draft. A contingency plan for Matt is already in place I guarantee you. 

The immediate future is already pigeonholed because of Matt and Julio’s contract.  I actually agree with most of what you said.  But Matt isn’t going anywhere this year and more than likely is our starting QB in 2022 as well.  Taking preference out of it, that is likely what plays out.  If that’s the case, taking a QB at four doesn’t make sense.  If the plan is infact to move on from Matt next year, then a small trade down and still taking someone that needs a year of development would make sense.  I just can’t get on board taking someone at 4 overall and sitting them, they go that high because they are pro ready and ready to start Week 1.

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3 minutes ago, jetpac said:

You started the crap attitude with you’re non needed little jab. Don’t cry when it comes back to you. Good day sir:

“Oh look another trade down” got “thanks for adding value” as a response, if that’s the “jab” you’re referencing it came in response to your comment.

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3 minutes ago, Rings said:

The immediate future is already pigeonholed because of Matt and Julio’s contract.  I actually agree with most of what you said.  But Matt isn’t going anywhere this year and more than likely is our starting QB in 2022 as well.  Taking preference out of it, that is likely what plays out.  If that’s the case, taking a QB at four doesn’t make sense.  If the plan is infact to move on from Matt next year, then a small trade down and still taking someone that needs a year of development would make sense.  I just can’t get on board taking someone at 4 overall and sitting them, they go that high because they are pro ready and ready to start Week 1.

Matt doesn’t need to go anywhere this year. Use him to help the offense and possibly an upcoming QB tailor in the new playbook. He has a process 13 years strong. Intellectual property is valuable. Any film junky QB(Wilson) will soak up anything Matt has to offer like a sponge. Build off of his foundation with a new skillset and added dimension of QB play. This is how you take a chance on true greatness. It doesn’t happen overnight. 

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43 minutes ago, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

Matt doesn’t need to go anywhere this year. Use him to help the offense and possibly an upcoming QB tailor in the new playbook. He has a process 13 years strong. Intellectual property is valuable. Any film junky QB(Wilson) will soak up anything Matt has to offer like a sponge. Build off of his foundation with a new skillset and added dimension of QB play. This is how you take a chance on true greatness. It doesn’t happen overnight. 

They shouldn’t take a chance when they need a roster. They need to KNOW this supposed QB would be long term an upgrade. Do they? I mean really.

We could, conversely, wind up chasing a great roster if we don’t maximize our best positioning to vastly upgrade the roster itself...which is one of 2 reasons we actually haven’t won a SB in the past. A better constructed roster could’ve carried the aggressive style of the 2016 team. We haven’t had legitimate defense capable of winning games consistently since the Mike Smith era and the only 2 times we had a running game since Turner left; both years the team made the playoffs & won games despite worse defense than Smith’s Falcons (whose defense were elite but better than 2013 onward)

Again, you only take a QB if you are sure or you actually set the franchise back.

After all, Matt Ryan can win a SB. No question. He has arguably several years left. That’s at minimum. 

Besides, it’s never been about him; at least since a poor start to his postseason resume. That’s the nature of the playoffs and team success: Build a team that doesn’t need perfect QB play. Then, take multiple shots at playoff runs.

We had multiple shots with better teams with Mike Smith, but even those defenses were adequate at best. The truly elite defenses like GB 2010; which carried Rodgers to a SB, or 2011 where the Giants defense beat not only the Falcons but Tom Brady of age 34.

Even more reason to keep the sure thing; what we know at QB, and generate long-term affordable 4 year pricing in other areas of the roster that is desperately needed. Then, get the next QB later in the draft or at a future year when Ryan actually has regressed capabilities. Folks looking for a hero is a fools errand.

The problem is, many of those claiming “that’s chasing 2016” are ignoring 2018 and any year a good run game was enough; such as in 2017, to make the playoffs.

QB ability to produce is not the issue. It never has been. It’s been lacking a great team. Including coaching.

Name me one great QB that won a SB in spite of his team.

It doesn’t happen. Almost did for Ryan’s Falcons in 2016, but alas it’s rare to win with just an MVP QB.

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59 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Even more reason to keep the sure thing; what we know at QB, and generate long-term affordable 4 year pricing in other areas of the roster that is desperately needed. Then, get the next QB later in the draft or at a future year when Ryan actually has regressed capabilities. Folks looking for a hero is a fools errand.

That’s an absolutely terrible reason to keep an aging QB. The only thing Matt “assures” you of is slightly above average QB play. Not only do we not have near the elite defense to carry a team like GB & NYG had, we don’t have the cap to grab very many sure things from FA for the defense. Trying to achieve that through the draft alone will take years.

You don’t wait for the problem to occur before you scramble together an fix it like TD did. You invest in the future to circumvent potential problems from happening before they become catastrophic without sacrificing unnecessarily if you have the chance to do that.

They need to start phasing out of Matt & Julios contract to reshift the allocation towards the defense and slowly acquire nice pieces through the draft. The sooner the better after 2021.

 

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10 minutes ago, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

That’s an absolutely terrible reason to keep an aging QB. The only thing Matt “assures” you of is slightly above average QB play. Not only do we not have near the elite defense to carry a team like GB & NYG had, we don’t have the cap to grab very many sure things from FA for the defense. Trying to achieve that through the draft alone will take years.

You don’t wait for the problem to occur before you scramble together an fix it like TD did. You invest in the future to circumvent potential problems from happening before they become catastrophic without sacrificing unnecessarily if you have the chance to do that.

They need to start phasing out of Matt & Julios contract to reshift the allocation towards the defense and slowly acquire nice pieces through the draft. The sooner the better after 2021.

 

We will add to the defense this very offseason.

Ryan is better than you are able to admit or see.

The Saints landed a dream draft after 3 years of 7-9.

Is the plan to have bad draft picks? 

Did DFJ not get paid? Money hasn’t been the issue.

Draft is core. Stop-gap with FA. Actually get FA fits instead of chasing stat lines.

What it takes to produce at an MVP level is more than ability to produce. Rodgers proved that. Ryan with Dirk the past 2 years after doing well with Sark proved that.

Ryan has had 2 years with anyone worth their title as a leader at their job; and Kyle hasn’t had any QB (or offense) come close to that level of production before or after.

Let me guess...weapons = good coordinator or plays? Even chess has many levels of skill but they are all “chess players”...maybe some chess players do better in certain conditions than the other. The NFL isn’t as rigid as a chess board; but some rules do apply. Seeing that out is not something we’ve had consistent advantages with on the sidelines. Besides Kyle as an OC, our best Defensive coach was likely Mike Smith or Nolan; who like Koetter, had the game pass them by.

I’m interested in the elo of the player rather than debating differences of certain chess pieces in differing scenarios.

Cap isn’t that big of a deal if you can push QB pay down the line.

You may not like it, but it’s a viable strategy.

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18 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

We will add to the defense this very offseason.

Ryan is better than you are able to admit or see.

The Saints landed a dream draft after 3 years of 7-9.

Is the plan to have bad draft picks? 

Did DFJ not get paid? Money hasn’t been the issue.

Draft is core. Stop-gap with FA. Actually get FA fits instead of chasing stat lines.

What it takes to produce at an MVP level is more than ability to produce. Rodgers proved that. Ryan with Dirk the past 2 years after doing well with Sark proved that.

Ryan has had 2 years with anyone worth their title as a leader at their job; and Kyle hasn’t had any QB (or offense) come close to that level of production before or after.

Let me guess...weapons = good coordinator or plays? Even chess has many levels of skill but they are all “chess players”...maybe some chess players do better in certain conditions than the other. The NFL isn’t as rigid as a chess board; but some rules do apply. Seeing that out is not something we’ve had consistent advantages with on the sidelines. Besides Kyle as an OC, our best Defensive coach was likely Mike Smith or Nolan; who like Koetter, had the game pass them by.

I’m interested in the elo of the player rather than debating differences of certain chess pieces in differing scenarios.

Cap isn’t that big of a deal if you can push QB pay down the line.

You may not like it, but it’s a viable strategy.

It’s the strategy that got us in this mess. Why does the Saints landing there dream draft 3 years ago have any forbearance on the teams future endeavors? It’s irrelevant, it doesn’t matter what they did. I know the possibility is there sure. But even they couldn’t get it done with Sean Payton. It’s still no good reason to keep kicking it down the road. It’s starting to seem like real Stockholm Syndrome. 

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3 hours ago, Rings said:

The immediate future is already pigeonholed because of Matt and Julio’s contract.  I actually agree with most of what you said.  But Matt isn’t going anywhere this year and more than likely is our starting QB in 2022 as well.  Taking preference out of it, that is likely what plays out.  If that’s the case, taking a QB at four doesn’t make sense.  If the plan is infact to move on from Matt next year, then a small trade down and still taking someone that needs a year of development would make sense.  I just can’t get on board taking someone at 4 overall and sitting them, they go that high because they are pro ready and ready to start Week 1.

I love Ryan but also understand the idea of drafting a QB if all the in house evaluations are in agreement that QB X is a high levrl franchise QB.

If that happened, Ryan’s contract isn’t too difficult to trade.  Doing so this year results in 17 mill dead money and frees up 23 mill in cap space.  Same will apply for 2022.  The me that’s not prohibitive.  So long as you open up more cap space than the amount of dead money created, the trade makes sense.  
 

In this situation our cap space with Ryan and without Ryan if he traded 6/1:

• With Ryan: Falcons have 54 mill in 2022 & 138 mill in 2023

• Trade Ryan: Falcons have 78 mill in 2022 & 175 mill in 2023

 

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