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My Hopes on the Draft


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I don't start a lot of topics, I tend to piggy back off of others and either agree or disagree and why.  But I figured I would spell out what I'd like to happen, or not happen, this draft.  

What I want us to do.

1) Trade Down.  This to me is the biggest thing we can do in my eyes.  There are very few blue chip players in this draft, the good thing is most of them are QBs and as we have seen so far in offseason trades, teams feel they need one bad and are willing to overpay.  I would honestly prefer multiple trade downs if possible, but we will see how that plays out.  I love the draft and it's exciting to me to have such a high pick for once, it's the silver lining to a garbage season last year.  However, the top of the draft talent wise couldn't stack up any worse from a needs perspective for us vs what it would have in previous years.  There isn't a dominate EDGE, there isn't a lockdown Corner or Safety, there isn't a blue chip DT or even a Nelson type guard (I wouldn't be happy taking a guard at 4 but you get the point).  Because most teams typically have two big boards, one overall BPA and one taking positional value/needs/scheme fit into consideration, it makes perfect sense that someone is going to fall in love with one of the QBs, WRs or Sewell and be willing to move up for them...and we need take full advantage of it.  

2) Address the secondary day one or two...multiple times if it's there.  Terrell is the only known guy we have back there at this point, with Neal's future unknown, Rico cut and other corners struggling/unproven...we need to address it multiple times in the draft.  If trade downs happen, this will give us more chances to find value on day two, early day three to help fill those gaps. 

3) Address the d-line day one or two, again I'd be fine if multiple times.  TD did a lot of things really well in the draft in my eyes, his two biggest flaws were trading up too much when it didn't make sense/never trading down to recoup those picks, and his inability to scout talent on the d-line that translated to the NFL.  I'll give him some props for Grady, but most outlets had him as a late first round pick and he kept falling and falling because of size, and at some point you just have to say "at this point we would be stupid not to take a chance" and it paid off.

What I don't want us to do.

1) Take a QB at 4.  Do I think Ryan will be our QB the next 2-3 years?  Yes.  Will he be in 5?  Probably not.  I'd rather address the problem come 2023-ish, even if they have to sit for a year at that point, but not this year.  When you are this high in the draft and don't NEED a QB right now, you take advantage of someone that does in a strong QB class, trade back and accumulate draft capital...aka more picks.  The biggest upside of moving on from a proven vet to a rookie QB is the cost savings, if you sit that player for the first two years of their career, you are throwing half that away and you close your window to surround them with talent.  The playoff AFC teams were filled with QBs on rookie deals still, Mahomes (new deal hasn't kicked in yet), Jackson, Allen, Mayfield.  When those QBs get paid, and those cap hits hit, they won't be able to stack the team around them and their job gets even harder and not all of them can carry a team with less talent to help.  You have to take advantage of that window, and we are not in a position to move on from Ryan for at least a year or two so this is why I would rather wait to see how he performs in Smith's scheme before pulling the trigger on a new QB.  

2) Take a RB in round one.  I know people love Harris, I get it, he's awesome and we were 30th in rushing DVOA last year.  Smith's scheme alone will make our line look a ton better which will help the running game a lot.  His scheme will also use backs in the passing game...which is a foreign concept to us over the last two years.  Do we need to add a back, or even two in either FA (cheap deal) or the draft?  Yes.  Does it need to be round one, or even two to see a big upgrade?  No. There are a lot of position groups that you rarely hit outside the top 40 picks or so, multiple running backs every year perform at a high level drafted late day two, early day three.  In fact 8/10 top backs this year were not taken in the first round.  This year there are a lot of positions that have huge drop-offs after round one projections, EDGE and Safety come to mind.  The drop off from them to the guys that will go on day two is much bigger and will have a bigger impact than the drop off of us taking a back on day two instead mid first (assuming trade down). 

2018 the Giants took Barkley in round one and Will Hernandez in round two.  I said right after that pick, they got it backwards.  If they wanted to fix their running game, they should have taken Quenton Nelson round one and Nick Chubb round two, who went one pick after Will to Cleveland.  Is Barkley a better back than Chubb when healthy?  Maybe, but at this point debatable.  But there is a HUGE drop off from Nelson to Hernandez, which was obvious pre-draft, this isn't just a hindsight take, I literally turned to my friends within the minute after they picked Will and said that.  The running game is extremely important in today's NFL, but that doesn't mean you need a top 5 talent-wise RB to accomplish top 5 production.

3) Not lock in on positions we NEED.  Yes we want impact starters, yes you want people to compete.  But if you have a list of needs holistically, you should try to address a good chunk of them if you can, but you should never try to do it in a specific order and force yourself to reach just to check a box.  Talent always slips every year, sometimes legit concerns, but other times because other teams don't value a position, they scouted poorly, the have no need for that position, but more often than not it's because they don't fit the type of player they are looking for for their scheme.  A lot of GMs are still stuck in the old school "we don't take tackles with less than 34" arms or our corners have to be 5'10" minimum, no QBs under 6'0",etc".  It's another reason why Grady fell to us, didn't meet teams requirements to what they thought it took to be successful DT.

4) Any type of trade up.  Like I said about why we should trade down and get more picks, this is the opposite, we can't afford to throw away cheap talent anymore.  We need depth and we need competent starters all over the defense side of the ball, running back and could still use upgrades/people to compete on the offensive line.  We aren't a piece or two away to think we can trade up and get "our guy", be patient, multiple good players will make a bigger impact on our defense than one great player.  If you don't believe me look at our defensive line, Grady is great, but if he had any help at all he would be even better because he couldn't be double teamed every snap.

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3 minutes ago, RYNE said:

I want to trade down and get Surtain around pick 9. 
 

 But like I’ve said multiple times I would use some of the draft picks I got in the trade down to move back up to get Najee Harris. 

This is exactly what I don't want.  1) We can't afford to trade up 2) We certainly shouldn't do it for a position that is the least valuable, most replaceable and shortest lifespan in the NFL.  Javonte Williams and the player we lose by giving a pick away to move up will be more impactful than only Harris would be. 3) Can't be locking onto specific players and moving up in fear someone else will take them, this was one of TD's downfalls.

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42 minutes ago, Rings said:

This is exactly what I don't want.  1) We can't afford to trade up 2) We certainly shouldn't do it for a position that is the least valuable, most replaceable and shortest lifespan in the NFL.  Javonte Williams and the player we lose by giving a pick away to move up will be more impactful than only Harris would be. 3) Can't be locking onto specific players and moving up in fear someone else will take them, this was one of TD's downfalls.

Well 🤷🏼‍♂️

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Unless a team has its sights on a specific qb that is sitting at #4 when we pick, trading down is a good theory on paper, but sometimes we act like it's a given. After that qb run, imo trading down twice will be virtually impossible seeing there may not be those blue chip defensive players to trade up for. If we do gather picks on any trade down, just stay put with those picks.. quality picks (esp rbs) will be available

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1 minute ago, Mister pudding said:

Unless a team has its sights on a specific qb that is sitting at #4 when we pick, trading down is a good theory on paper, but sometimes we act like it's a given. After that qb run, imo trading down twice will be virtually impossible seeing there may not be those blue chip defensive players to trade up for. If we do gather picks on any trade down, just stay put with those picks.. quality picks (esp rbs) will be available

I agree.  The only real marquee players are at QB.  That's the lure.  If the QBS go one two three, we probably aren't getting that trade down unless someone is terrified we are drafting Sewell or Chase.  

But, I am a trade down guy.  We can still get a developmental QB lower.  Arthur Smith is a solid teacher.  And he did wonders for Tannehill.  I'd like to see what he could do with a Jones, Mond, Book, Newman.  My homerism aside, I'd love to see Ehlinger get a shot to make the team.  Hook'em Horns!

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7 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

Unless a team has its sights on a specific qb that is sitting at #4 when we pick, trading down is a good theory on paper, but sometimes we act like it's a given. After that qb run, imo trading down twice will be virtually impossible seeing there may not be those blue chip defensive players to trade up for. If we do gather picks on any trade down, just stay put with those picks.. quality picks (esp rbs) will be available

Once the blue chip players are gone you are less likely to get a ransom for someone trading up, but it still happens frequently to a team who may feel they are one player away.  Is trading down a given?  Nope.  But it I think we forget it’s even possible since TD never did it lol.  This is what I “hope” happens, not what I think or know will happen.

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1 minute ago, Rings said:

Once the blue chip players are gone you are less likely to get a ransom for someone trading up, but it still happens frequently to a team who may feel they are one player away.  Is trading down a given?  Nope.  But it I think we forget it’s even possible since TD never did it lol.  This is what I “hope” happens, not what I think or know will happen.

It's not like we have done a great deal of draft capital accumulation.  I for one want to see as many picks as possible.  TF and the targeted FA approach is money.  I am cautiously optimistic, nay, excited about what is being said.  

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34 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

It's not like we have done a great deal of draft capital accumulation.  I for one want to see as many picks as possible.  TF and the targeted FA approach is money.  I am cautiously optimistic, nay, excited about what is being said.  

Same.  More we get the happier I’ll be, I don’t care if that means trading out of the first if we add 5+ picks on day two this year and next.  Much better chance of those six players making a bigger holistic impact than one.  Wishful thinking though for sure.

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I disagree with 1 and 2. I think we should be in rebuild mode and dumping the huge Ryan and Jones contracts should be a priority next year. I’d love a QB to sit a year then dump Ryan next year. 
 

I think we need to transition to more of a bigger, beefier OL before we spend a high pick on RB. Road grading offensive lineman is the way to go. There’s no real pass rush on play action when the other team can’t stop the run. 
 

It has been 55 years with no ring. Stop mortgaging our future by renegotiating with aging players in decline and trading up. 

Edited by Dirtier Bird
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1 hour ago, Rings said:

This is exactly what I don't want.  1) We can't afford to trade up 2) We certainly shouldn't do it for a position that is the least valuable, most replaceable and shortest lifespan in the NFL.  Javonte Williams and the player we lose by giving a pick away to move up will be more impactful than only Harris would be. 3) Can't be locking onto specific players and moving up in fear someone else will take them, this was one of TD's downfalls.

TF said something about addressing our biggest needs in free agency so he may indeed use the draft for luxury picks such as our future QB or a wide receiver that will eventually replace Julio. Or even Kyle Pitts.

If TF addresses our biggest needs in FA that would be running back, CB and a possible o line or safety.

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Just now, Dirtier Bird said:

I disagree with 1 and 2. I think we should be in rebuild mode and dumping the huge Ryan and Jones contracts should be a priority next year. I’d love a QB to sit a year then dump Ryan next year. 
 

I think we need to transition to more of a bigger, beefier OL before we spend a high pick on RB. Road grading offensive lineman is the way to go. There’s no real pas rush on play action when the other team can’t stop the run. 
 

It has been 55 years with no ring. Stop mortgaging our future by renegotiating with aging players in decline and trading up. 

Matt Ryan could look MVP Matt Ryan under Arthur Smith so the new QB may have to sit for 3 years like Rodgers and Young did which I'm fine with.

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Just now, Dirtier Bird said:

I disagree with 1 and 2. I think we should be in rebuild mode and dumping the huge Ryan and Jones contracts should be a priority next year. I’d love a QB to sit a year then dump Ryan next year. 
 

I think we need to transition to more of a bigger, beefier OL before we spend a high pick on RB. Road grading offensive lineman is the way to go. There’s no real pas rush on play action when the other team can’t stop the run. 
 

It has been 55 years with no ring. Stop mortgaging our future by renegotiating with aging players in decline and trading up. 

We would still take a really large cap hit with dumping their contracts and wouldn’t be able to build around the rookie until 2023 anyways, so again why waste two years of being able to capitalize on a really cheap QB?  I’m fine with moving on when it make sense, and it makes the most sense in 2023 or after.

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1 minute ago, Falcons Fan MVP said:

Matt Ryan could look MVP Matt Ryan under Arthur Smith so the new QB may have to sit for 3 years like Rodgers and Young did which I'm fine with.

Again, those examples keep being brought up but they were during the old CBA, it’s apples to oranges to compare the two.  It doesn’t make sense to sit someone that long anymore.

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2 hours ago, Rings said:

I don't start a lot of topics, I tend to piggy back off of others and either agree or disagree and why.  But I figured I would spell out what I'd like to happen, or not happen, this draft.  

What I want us to do.

1) Trade Down.  This to me is the biggest thing we can do in my eyes.  There are very few blue chip players in this draft, the good thing is most of them are QBs and as we have seen so far in offseason trades, teams feel they need one bad and are willing to overpay.  I would honestly prefer multiple trade downs if possible, but we will see how that plays out.  I love the draft and it's exciting to me to have such a high pick for once, it's the silver lining to a garbage season last year.  However, the top of the draft talent wise couldn't stack up any worse from a needs perspective for us vs what it would have in previous years.  There isn't a dominate EDGE, there isn't a lockdown Corner or Safety, there isn't a blue chip DT or even a Nelson type guard (I wouldn't be happy taking a guard at 4 but you get the point).  Because most teams typically have two big boards, one overall BPA and one taking positional value/needs/scheme fit into consideration, it makes perfect sense that someone is going to fall in love with one of the QBs, WRs or Sewell and be willing to move up for them...and we need take full advantage of it.  

2) Address the secondary day one or two...multiple times if it's there.  Terrell is the only known guy we have back there at this point, with Neal's future unknown, Rico cut and other corners struggling/unproven...we need to address it multiple times in the draft.  If trade downs happen, this will give us more chances to find value on day two, early day three to help fill those gaps. 

3) Address the d-line day one or two, again I'd be fine if multiple times.  TD did a lot of things really well in the draft in my eyes, his two biggest flaws were trading up too much when it didn't make sense/never trading down to recoup those picks, and his inability to scout talent on the d-line that translated to the NFL.  I'll give him some props for Grady, but most outlets had him as a late first round pick and he kept falling and falling because of size, and at some point you just have to say "at this point we would be stupid not to take a chance" and it paid off.

What I don't want us to do.

1) Take a QB at 4.  Do I think Ryan will be our QB the next 2-3 years?  Yes.  Will he be in 5?  Probably not.  I'd rather address the problem come 2023-ish, even if they have to sit for a year at that point, but not this year.  When you are this high in the draft and don't NEED a QB right now, you take advantage of someone that does in a strong QB class, trade back and accumulate draft capital...aka more picks.  The biggest upside of moving on from a proven vet to a rookie QB is the cost savings, if you sit that player for the first two years of their career, you are throwing half that away and you close your window to surround them with talent.  The playoff AFC teams were filled with QBs on rookie deals still, Mahomes (new deal hasn't kicked in yet), Jackson, Allen, Mayfield.  When those QBs get paid, and those cap hits hit, they won't be able to stack the team around them and their job gets even harder and not all of them can carry a team with less talent to help.  You have to take advantage of that window, and we are not in a position to move on from Ryan for at least a year or two so this is why I would rather wait to see how he performs in Smith's scheme before pulling the trigger on a new QB.  

2) Take a RB in round one.  I know people love Harris, I get it, he's awesome and we were 30th in rushing DVOA last year.  Smith's scheme alone will make our line look a ton better which will help the running game a lot.  His scheme will also use backs in the passing game...which is a foreign concept to us over the last two years.  Do we need to add a back, or even two in either FA (cheap deal) or the draft?  Yes.  Does it need to be round one, or even two to see a big upgrade?  No. There are a lot of position groups that you rarely hit outside the top 40 picks or so, multiple running backs every year perform at a high level drafted late day two, early day three.  In fact 8/10 top backs this year were not taken in the first round.  This year there are a lot of positions that have huge drop-offs after round one projections, EDGE and Safety come to mind.  The drop off from them to the guys that will go on day two is much bigger and will have a bigger impact than the drop off of us taking a back on day two instead mid first (assuming trade down). 

2018 the Giants took Barkley in round one and Will Hernandez in round two.  I said right after that pick, they got it backwards.  If they wanted to fix their running game, they should have taken Quenton Nelson round one and Nick Chubb round two, who went one pick after Will to Cleveland.  Is Barkley a better back than Chubb when healthy?  Maybe, but at this point debatable.  But there is a HUGE drop off from Nelson to Hernandez, which was obvious pre-draft, this isn't just a hindsight take, I literally turned to my friends within the minute after they picked Will and said that.  The running game is extremely important in today's NFL, but that doesn't mean you need a top 5 talent-wise RB to accomplish top 5 production.

3) Not lock in on positions we NEED.  Yes we want impact starters, yes you want people to compete.  But if you have a list of needs holistically, you should try to address a good chunk of them if you can, but you should never try to do it in a specific order and force yourself to reach just to check a box.  Talent always slips every year, sometimes legit concerns, but other times because other teams don't value a position, they scouted poorly, the have no need for that position, but more often than not it's because they don't fit the type of player they are looking for for their scheme.  A lot of GMs are still stuck in the old school "we don't take tackles with less than 34" arms or our corners have to be 5'10" minimum, no QBs under 6'0",etc".  It's another reason why Grady fell to us, didn't meet teams requirements to what they thought it took to be successful DT.

4) Any type of trade up.  Like I said about why we should trade down and get more picks, this is the opposite, we can't afford to throw away cheap talent anymore.  We need depth and we need competent starters all over the defense side of the ball, running back and could still use upgrades/people to compete on the offensive line.  We aren't a piece or two away to think we can trade up and get "our guy", be patient, multiple good players will make a bigger impact on our defense than one great player.  If you don't believe me look at our defensive line, Grady is great, but if he had any help at all he would be even better because he couldn't be double teamed every snap.

Let's see what we do in Free Agency.  It is really hard to get a sense of the direction this team will take in the draft until we know what holes we have after the free agency process.  I'm totally down for speculation but we free agency is really the missing piece to the equation. 

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Just now, autigerfan said:

Let's see what we do in Free Agency.  It is really hard to get a sense of the direction this team will take in the draft until we know what holes we have after the free agency process.  I'm totally down for speculation but we free agency is really the missing piece to the equation. 

Correct, why I didn’t go into teams needs, but there are a lot of holes in secondary and d-line, we aren’t fixing all of that in FA.

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2 hours ago, Rings said:

This is exactly what I don't want.  1) We can't afford to trade up 2) We certainly shouldn't do it for a position that is the least valuable, most replaceable and shortest lifespan in the NFL.  Javonte Williams and the player we lose by giving a pick away to move up will be more impactful than only Harris would be. 3) Can't be locking onto specific players and moving up in fear someone else will take them, this was one of TD's downfalls.

Harris, while I like him generally, just seems like a waste. As I’ve said before, treat RBs like bic lighters. Once they finish their rookie deal, franchise them a year if they’re great. Otherwise, you cut bait and go draft another. 4-5 years is all the quality you’ll get out of most of them.

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I don't really see any of your "don't wants" happening unless they use a pick acquired from a trade down to trade back into the 1st to get a RB.

I don't mind trades to get back into the 1st if they don't cost a ton because of the extra year.

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Great post. I am a big believer in FA and draft go hand in hand. 
 

Secondary: Grab a top FS in FA and NB in FA. Marcus Maye, Marcus Williams are my two top FS acquisitions. Been saying for weeks to grab Desmond king  as NB and return guy. 
 

Pass rush: This has to come from FA or a trade . If they find a diamond in the rough from draft, so be it.  
RB: They should look at FA market if there is an option for 4 m or less. But I would be ok if they drafted couple of RB. I would prefer a second round RB rather than getting one in 4th or later. 
I don’t see much value of QB at #4. There is no point in sitting the guy for two years have him play one year and extended the big contract just after one year of play time. 

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30 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

Harris, while I like him generally, just seems like a waste. As I’ve said before, treat RBs like bic lighters. Once they finish their rookie deal, franchise them a year if they’re great. Otherwise, you cut bait and go draft another. 4-5 years is all the quality you’ll get out of most of them.

I was with you until i saw franchise tag. I would just keep drafting rbs when the time comes. Franchise tag for rb is 12.4 million. Draft, use, rinse, repeat

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3 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

I was with you until i saw franchise tag. I would just keep drafting rbs when the time comes. Franchise tag for rb is 12.4 million. Draft, use, rinse, repeat

Its higher now than normal...teams paid some RBs the last few years and have regretted it, that will come back down I think.

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5 minutes ago, Rings said:

Its higher now than normal...teams paid some RBs the last few years and have regretted it, that will come back down I think.

Regardless. Rb is the easiest transition from college to the pros. I'd rather spend the resources elsewhere myself and replace in drafts

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27 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

Regardless. Rb is the easiest transition from college to the pros. I'd rather spend the resources elsewhere myself and replace in drafts

Oh I don’t disagree, I’m with you on that, I would never tag a RB ever, but when I dove into it last year it was closer to 9mil I believe.  First year the TE tag was higher than RB.

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