Will Calvin Ridley be a Falcon long term?

[atljbo 21,929]

Arthur Blank literally said we transition from Roddy to Julio and we will transition from Julio to Rid

[youngbloodz 16,617]

1 hour ago, Herr Doktor said:

And let those comp picks come in to help restock the pantry.

Exactly man. That’s how you stay competitive. Have to identify your core players and keep them and everyone else is expandable 

[youngbloodz 16,617]

1 hour ago, ATLFalcon36 said:

Agreed 100% yeh julio spent a lot of time on the sideline but  it's those 4-8m fringe starter guys that gutted this team. Rico, carpenter, brown, trufant and alford, bailey, clayborn (prob the only one that was worth it), freeman, and so on...

Yep giving Tru that contract was a mistake. And I said it at the time. Giving Free that contract was a mistake and I love Free.

[ATLFalcon36 2,964]

Just now, youngbloodz said:

Yep giving Tru that contract was a mistake. And I said it at the time. Giving Free that contract was a mistake and I love Free.

We still are paying for it, 6m in dead money to Tru this year (according to overthecap) that's a decent starter's worth of money for a guy 2 years removed from the team. Those bad deals really hurt. 

[TheHeartless 578]

Why wouldn't he be? He's a top 10 receiver in the league, arguably a top 3 route runner, and still has the potential to become top 5 at his position. Add on that Julio isn't getting any younger and if Matt's to retire or no longer be on the team at some point within in the next 3 years, having a real good receiver for your next QB won't hurt at all. 

[PapaJoe 3,233]

No./

 

[JCITOW 232]

10 minutes ago, PapaJoe said:

No./

 

May we ask why this is your view?

[k-train 9,099]

I think you have to look at it with a wide angle lens, factoring in the cap ramifications over the next several years.

2021
This is the final year of Ridley's current deal & he will be 27 years old.

2022
With Ridley having been a 1st round pick, the Falcons have a 5th year option which they will surely pick up. So he will almost certainly be here in 2022 when he is 28. It probably wouldn't be a bad idea to draft a WR w/ starter potential at this point.

2023 (This is the year that matters most IMO)
There should be considerably more cap room in 2023. At that point, a 38-year old Matt Ryan becomes cuttable (saves $28M vs $8M dead money). Cutting a 34-year old Julio in 2023 saves a little as well. Cutting a 31-year old Matthews would gain $14M vs $4M in dead money.

So the Falcons should be in shape to easily place the franchise tag on a 29-year old Ridley at that point.

And honestly, I'd think very hard about potentially doing a tag & trade in order to move him for a decent haul... especially if we already have his replacement in place.

Otherwise, you let him walk in 2024 & get a comp pick.

[Herr Doktor 9,818]

5 minutes ago, k-train said:

I think you have to look at it with a wide angle lens, factoring in the cap ramifications over the next several years.

2021
This is the final year of Ridley's current deal & he will be 27 years old.

2022
With Ridley having been a 1st round pick, the Falcons have a 5th year option which they will surely pick up. So he will almost certainly be here in 2022 when he is 28. It probably wouldn't be a bad idea to draft a WR w/ starter potential at this point.

2023 (This is the year that matters most IMO)
There should be considerably more cap room in 2023. At that point, a 38-year old Matt Ryan becomes cuttable (saves $28M vs $8M dead money). Cutting a 34-year old Julio in 2023 saves a little as well. Cutting a 31-year old Matthews would gain $14M vs $4M in dead money.

So the Falcons should be in shape to easily place the franchise tag on a 29-year old Ridley at that point.

And honestly, I'd think very hard about potentially doing a tag & trade in order to move him for a decent haul... especially if we already have his replacement in place.

Otherwise, you let him walk in 2024 & get a comp pick.

A decidedly logical take.  Exceptional sir, exceptional.  

[Falcons Fan MVP 3,991]

1 hour ago, atljbo said:

Arthur Blank literally said we transition from Roddy to Julio and we will transition from Julio to Rid

He also basically said no one is safe with the new GM but you're probably right.

[Falcons Fan MVP 3,991]

1 hour ago, youngbloodz said:

Yep giving Tru that contract was a mistake. And I said it at the time. Giving Free that contract was a mistake and I love Free.

If Freeman would have been like Michael Turner and played at a high level for 4 years it would have been worth it because lack of a good dual threat running back is hurting our offense.

[falcons007 25,854]

1 hour ago, atljbo said:

Arthur Blank literally said we transition from Roddy to Julio and we will transition from Julio to Rid

He didn’t say that we will transition. He said we always have a plan for every player. Julio was drafted when RE was here and Ridley with Julio. No guarantee he would play beyond the 5 year option. I hope they do extend him in 2022.

[Falcons Fan MVP 3,991]

30 minutes ago, k-train said:

I think you have to look at it with a wide angle lens, factoring in the cap ramifications over the next several years.

2021
This is the final year of Ridley's current deal & he will be 27 years old.

2022
With Ridley having been a 1st round pick, the Falcons have a 5th year option which they will surely pick up. So he will almost certainly be here in 2022 when he is 28. It probably wouldn't be a bad idea to draft a WR w/ starter potential at this point.

2023 (This is the year that matters most IMO)
There should be considerably more cap room in 2023. At that point, a 38-year old Matt Ryan becomes cuttable (saves $28M vs $8M dead money). Cutting a 34-year old Julio in 2023 saves a little as well. Cutting a 31-year old Matthews would gain $14M vs $4M in dead money.

So the Falcons should be in shape to easily place the franchise tag on a 29-year old Ridley at that point.

And honestly, I'd think very hard about potentially doing a tag & trade in order to move him for a decent haul... especially if we already have his replacement in place.

Otherwise, you let him walk in 2024 & get a comp pick.

If they do sign Ridley they will probably have Ridley get most of his money by 2024 and 2025 when Julio is gone.

[k-train 9,099]

53 minutes ago, Falcons Fan MVP said:

If they do sign Ridley they will probably have Ridley get most of his money by 2024 and 2025 when Julio is gone.

Then you are just paying large amounts of the cap to a 30 year old WR all over again.

Ridley's not missed a ton of games so far, but he does always seem to be kinda banged up, getting up slowly & it feels like he is forever reaching down at his ankle nearly every single time he gets tackled. If that's going on with him at 27, what do you think it's gonna be like in 2024-2025 when he's the age Julio is now?

Get what you can out of Ridley over the next 2-3 years and then it'll be time to move on.

[k-train 9,099]

1 hour ago, Falcons Fan MVP said:

He also basically said no one is safe with the new GM but you're probably right.

It's been a long time since we had a new GM, so it's understandably easy for folks to forget that things will probably be a lot different in terms of how we deal with guys currently on the roster.

The reality is that Terry Fontenot has absolutely zero loyalty to anyone at all on this roster. They are not players he drafted, traded for, or signed. Same for Arthur Smith.

So while they may value someone like Ridley for what he brings to the table right now, they don't have any sort of emotional attachment to him or anyone else the way TD & Quinn may have if they were still here.

[blknoble357 183]

8 hours ago, Summerhill said:

This is a very valid question. Ridley is very good. But do you want to pay him top 5 money or top 15 money? I think his ceiling on the field is top 15 but players like this usually end up signing for top 5 money. 

Top 15 money seriously. Really just trying to understand. But 

[Jesus 27,312]

Team is gonna need a lot of receivers when they draft all them quarterbacks.

[Williamb 1,060]

Not that I'm for it at all, but this is why some people had a legitimate argument for chase at #4. 

[jidady 11,024]

2 hours ago, Williamb said:

Not that I'm for it at all, but this is why some people had a legitimate argument for chase at #4. 

I was coming into this thread to make the same point.

The #4 pick last year, Andrew Thomas, makes a little less than $8.1 million annually.

The #12 pick last year, Henry Ruggs, makes about $4.2 million annually.

Obviously, they aren't the known commodities that Ridley is. But these are the little ways a cap-strapped team can be smart.

Calvin makes about $2.7 million per year right now. Stefon Diggs, the #15 WR contract in the NFL according to Sportrac, earns about $13.5 million annually.

In a world without a cap, Calvin plays for Atlanta forever. In our current situation, he may only have two seasons left, less if we trade him.

[Williamb 1,060]

13 minutes ago, jidady said:

I was coming into this thread to make the same point.

The #4 pick last year, Andrew Thomas, makes a little less than $8.1 million annually.

The #12 pick last year, Henry Ruggs, makes about $4.2 million annually.

Obviously, they aren't the known commodities that Ridley is. But these are the little ways a cap-strapped team can be smart.

Calvin makes about $2.7 million per year right now. Stefon Diggs, the #15 WR contract in the NFL according to Sportrac, earns about $13.5 million annually.

In a world without a cap, Calvin plays for Atlanta forever. In our current situation, he may only have two seasons left, less if we trade him.

That is exactly what makes the argument legit. JJ's contract reaching an end at the same time cr is due may make the fo look into a rookie contract bailing the team out in the long term.

*** not only that, could you imagine JJ, CR, Chase, Gage, Zaccheus, and Hurst for the next 2 years

Edited February 20 by Williamb
Addition

[FalconFanSince1970 24,837]

23 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

People on this board have cried about julio's contract for year upon years yet are lining up to do the same thing all over again lmao

I cried mostly about the five picks, but the $168M hurt and is still painful.

[*TMo* 1,108]

I sure hope so, he's ready to play on every down.

[egoprime II 2,848]

On 2/19/2021 at 10:54 AM, Falcons Fan MVP said:

What are the chances the Falcons keep Calvin Ridley long term under the Terry Fontenont and Arthur Smith regime? He's not going to be cheap and we are hurting financially. But he's a very good player. What do you think will happen when it's time for Ridley to get paid?

 

On 2/19/2021 at 11:23 AM, Mister pudding said:

Julio's contract will have hopefully ended. Sign the man

 

On 2/19/2021 at 11:31 AM, Summerhill said:

This is a very valid question. Ridley is very good. But do you want to pay him top 5 money or top 15 money? I think his ceiling on the field is top 15 but players like this usually end up signing for top 5 money. 

 

On 2/19/2021 at 11:36 AM, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

 

Ridley is already an All-Pro WR(2nd team). He is definitely a top 10 WR right now. Could emerge in top 5 discussions soon if Smith fixes the offense.

 

......and if he stops running backwards.

 

On 2/19/2021 at 11:49 AM, red falcon said:

Exactly.You pay the man hes elite even with the broken offense he was in the past two years. You dont let young elite wrs you drafted walk. Julio will be gone or take a cut.

Definitely not a hard question. 

 

On 2/19/2021 at 12:15 PM, Sui_Generis said:

The Falcons will make it work and sign the man. He is steadily improving and one of the premier route runners in the NFL. 

Looking ahead..... after the upcoming 2021 season, our 2018 draft class 'graduates'.   Former 1st round picks from 2018, WR Calvon Ridley and TE Hayden Hurst, figure to have team-option for a fifth year.  Even in thier option years these two will be expensive to keep.

The rest of the 2018 draft class becomes UFA's:  CB Isiah Oliver, DT Deadrin Senat, RB Ito Smith, WR Russell Gage, and LB Foye Oluokun.   Plus UDFA OL Matt Gono.

Of all these players, I can see the Falcons wanting to keep four of them, for sure:  Ridley, Hurst, Oluokun, and Gono.  Every one of these players stands to get paid large contracts, with Ridley getting the most.  I don't see how the Falcons will be able to afford -all- of them.   Maybe sign Ridley and one other.  Or sign the three cheapest, and lose Ridley?

Best thing to do, is trade at least one of these players.  Artur Smith likes to use two TE's so keep Hurst.   OL are hard to find, so.... keep Gono.   Playmaking LBs like Oluokun.... teams spend high draft picks looking for players as good as him.  Keep Oluokun.

This leaves Ridley.   The Falcons can ask for, and get, a 1st rounder plus a mid round pick.... maybe even a 3rd... for Ridley.   That way we might be able to keep Hurst, Gono -and- Oluokun.  And get good value for Ridley.

[DonOfThemBirds 19,649]

1 minute ago, egoprime II said:

 

 

 

 

 

Looking ahead..... after the upcoming 2021 season, our 2018 draft class 'graduates'.   Former 1st round picks from 2018, WR Calvon Ridley and TE Hayden Hurst, figure to have team-option for a fifth year.  Even in thier option years these two will be expensive to keep.

The rest of the 2018 draft class becomes UFA's:  CB Isiah Oliver, DT Deadrin Senat, RB Ito Smith, WR Russell Gage, and LB Foye Oluokun.   Plus UDFA OL Matt Gono.

Of all these players, I can see the Falcons wanting to keep four of them, for sure:  Ridley, Hurst, Oluokun, and Gono.  Every one of these players stands to get paid large contracts, with Ridley getting the most.  I don't see how the Falcons will be able to afford -all- of them.   Maybe sign Ridley and one other.  Or sign the three cheapest, and lose Ridley?

Best thing to do, is trade at least one of these players.  Artur Smith likes to use two TE's so keep Hurst.   OL are hard to find, so.... keep Gono.   Playmaking LBs like Oluokun.... teams spend high draft picks looking for players as good as him.  Keep Oluokun.

This leaves Ridley.   The Falcons can ask for, and get, a 1st rounder plus a mid round pick.... maybe even a 3rd... for Ridley.   That way we might be able to keep Hurst, Gono -and- Oluokun.  And get good value for Ridley.

 

Oluokun is a good player, but I think he's easier to replace.

 

I mean he's good, but he isn't a Ray Lewis, Patrick Willis, or Luke Kuechly.

[egoprime II 2,848]

1 minute ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

Oluokun is a good player, but I think he's easier to replace.

 

I mean he's good, but he isn't a Ray Lewis, Patrick Willis, or Luke Kuechly.

I agree with you, thing is..... those three you listed are among the best that ever played the game.   No, Oluokun isn't as good as them, but he won't be asking to get paid like them, either.

DeVondre Campbell got paid by the Cardinals.   He isn't as good as Oluokun is now.  And I think Oluokun will get even -better-....  plus Oluokun is good on all three downs.

At this point, I would put Oluokun at the top of the list of players to keep.