Vandy 39,848 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, thanat0s said: One thing that's becoming clearer to me is, if we trade back, the sweet spot for us is probably between 10-15. The top tier wants for most teams in the top ten are offensive players, which we don't need outside of a RB at some point, and maybe OL, though I think that only applies if we stay at 4 and Sewell is there. The next group are the top defenders that could include Parsons, Surtain or one of the other DBs, Rousseau/Paye, along with one RB, Najee Harris. I expect most, if not all, will be gone by 15. So, I think that if we do trade back, it won't be to anyone outside the top 15, unless it's a drop into the mid-late 20s where you can safely elevate a guy who might carry a 1/2 round rating. 16-25 to me is dangerous territory. jmo, of course. 12-15 IMO. If all gone at 15....highly unlikely, but if they are......trade back again. Stockpiling draft picks as NE did during their nearly 20 year dynasty run is never a bad thing if management has a long-term vision. Something TAFT has zippo of, btw. Rings, HASHBROWN3, Williamb and 2 others 4 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
nevesmetro 58 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I'd like to have Denver call and take 9, 40 and next years 2nd and then take a top tier CB Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rings 7,571 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 9 minutes ago, Vandy said: 12-15 IMO. If all gone at 15....highly unlikely, but if they are......trade back again. Stockpiling draft picks as NE did during their nearly 20 year dynasty run is never a bad thing if management has a long-term vision. Something TAFT has zippo of, btw. Couldn’t agree more. Vandy 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Herr Doktor 8,639 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 to 12. Or, straight out of the first round. Once you slide past @ 40 the players are all comparable. IMHO. ATLskinjob 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PriMeTiiMe 7,929 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 9-15 is definitely the range. #9 Broncos for a QB #10 Cowboys if they fall in love with Parsons or Surtain #11 Giants maybe for QB, WR or OT. #12 49ers for a QB #13 Chargers for Sewell or Chase/Smith #14 Vikings for a QB if they send Cousins elsewhere #15 Pats for a QB jidady 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
emc008 374 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) I tried to get back into that sweet spot 10-15 (went to 16) on PFN mock and this is what I was able to get. (I know, its just a mock and won't be likely, still fun) 16. Najee Harris RB Alabama 35. Joseph Ossai EDGE Texas 49. Ronnie Perkins EDGE Oklahoma 68. Pete Werner LB Ohio State 79. Quinn Meinerz OC Wisconsin-Whitewater 108. Andre Cisco S Syracuse 149. Trey Hill OC Georgia 181. Cornell Powell WR Clemson 183. Deommodore Lenoir CB Oregon 189. Jack Anderson OG Texas Tech 218. Justin Hilliard LB Ohio State 2022 ARI 4th Edited February 19 by emc008 Herr Doktor and thanat0s 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DonOfThemBirds 19,229 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 minutes ago, Vandy said: 12-15 IMO. If all gone at 15....highly unlikely, but if they are......trade back again. Stockpiling draft picks as NE did during their nearly 20 year dynasty run is never a bad thing if management has a long-term vision. Something TAFT has zippo of, btw. To be honest, Belichick's reign on top was a very odd anomaly though. Bill had way more success with inherited players and cast-off's than with a good bit of his draft picks. Vandy, thanat0s and Sidecar Falcon 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rings 7,571 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 26 minutes ago, emc008 said: I tried to get back into that sweet spot 10-15 (went to 16) on PFN mock and this is what I was able to get. (I know, its just a mock and won't be likely, still fun) 16. Najee Harris RB Alabama 35. Joseph Ossai EDGE Texas 49. Ronnie Perkins EDGE Oklahoma 68. Pete Werner LB Ohio State 79. Quinn Meinerz OC Wisconsin-Whitewater 108. Andre Cisco S Syracuse 149. Trey Hill OC Georgia 181. Cornell Powell WR Clemson 183. Deommodore Lenoir CB Oregon 189. Jack Anderson OG Texas Tech 218. Justin Hilliard LB Ohio State 2022 ARI 4th People are obsessed with Harris in the first and are going to be very let down when that doesn’t happen. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dr Long Shot 4,081 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) I like Washington at 19 or maybe San Fran at 12... each should net us a couple of early round picks plus maybe a later round pick. Edited February 19 by Dr Long Shot Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Draftnut57 4,321 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, thild002 said: The dream scenario is convincing Cincy to give up a 2nd to move up 1 spot, and then drop to 7,9, or 12 for an additional first. That 1st from detroit next year should be top 5 pick. What a wonderful first post... I'd take that trade right now in a heart beat. Herr Doktor 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sidecar Falcon 8,284 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 hours ago, thanat0s said: One thing that's becoming clearer to me is, if we trade back, the sweet spot for us is probably between 10-15. The top tier wants for most teams in the top ten are offensive players, which we don't need outside of a RB at some point, and maybe OL, though I think that only applies if we stay at 4 and Sewell is there. The next group are the top defenders that could include Parsons, Surtain or one of the other DBs, Rousseau/Paye, along with one RB, Najee Harris. I expect most, if not all, will be gone by 15. So, I think that if we do trade back, it won't be to anyone outside the top 15, unless it's a drop into the mid-late 20s where you can safely elevate a guy who might carry a 1/2 round rating. 16-25 to me is dangerous territory. jmo, of course. I think 8-10 range of we want a QB 10-15 range for anything else. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Herr Doktor 8,639 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Draftnut57 said: What a wonderful first post... I'd take that trade right now in a heart beat. Me to. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
falcons007 24,854 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Broncos or Niners. The team may miss out on some talent by trading down all the way to Pats, Bears or in to late teens. JohnnyFranchise 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mister pudding 3,445 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 hours ago, falconsd56 said: Why? We needed a tackle and he was good when healthy...which unfortunately was not enough. But TD got back several picks Infact that trade netted Baker, Harry Douglas, and Bierman. 3 guys who were major contributors to the early success that we had Not bad for 2 2nds and a 4th. I disagree. He was never good, never healthy (even when he played) and the only sin bigger than trading back up in the 1st round to get him was re-signing him. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rugger8 1,493 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I'd trade as far back as we could in the first round to get as many 2nd & 3rds this year, and a 1st next year to plan for picking up a QB. I'd do that with multiple trade backs, instead of one big blockbuster. Of course that opinion is colored by 37 sims a day. IMO, we don't need (as in have to have) a super star really anywhere. We need a butt ton of quality starters and quality depth pieces. Javonte Williams is my only gotta-have-him guy. I think he'll end up being the best RB of this draft. JohnnyFranchise 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
falcons007 24,854 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, Vandy said: 12-15 IMO. If all gone at 15....highly unlikely, but if they are......trade back again. Stockpiling draft picks as NE did during their nearly 20 year dynasty run is never a bad thing if management has a long-term vision. Something TAFT has zippo of, btw. 2 hours ago, DonOfThemBirds said: To be honest, Belichick's reign on top was a very odd anomaly though. Bill had way more success with inherited players and cast-off's than with a good bit of his draft picks. That’s true. I remember reading somewhere, last Player drafted to go to Pro bowl for Patriots was Hernandez. Last 7 years, Patriots drafts have been bad. BB gets these castoffs and make them work. DonOfThemBirds 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
primetime 1,058 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said: I think our four logical trade down options are #9 with denver, #12 with san fran, #19 with washington and #20 with chicago. As far as sweet spot? If we are wanting one of these top cbs I would be scared to go past #12. If we are after one of the edge rushers like collins I'd be willing to go to 20 and pick up a haul of picks. It really just depends on what we are targeting. Anything past #9 and I'm wanting a 2022 1st to go along with whatever else we receive. Out of everyone I see San Fran at 12. They get the QB to build around and we get Najee. If Smith is smart he knows that he must make the offence work now to justify his hire as the offencive minded HC. Our offence is so similar to Titans in personnel with the exception of that great power back. That’s Najee imho. Start with him and use the rest on defence (Safety, Edge) and an OG. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JohnnyFranchise 2,661 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 31 minutes ago, rugger8 said: I'd trade as far back as we could in the first round to get as many 2nd & 3rds this year, and a 1st next year to plan for picking up a QB. I'd do that with multiple trade backs, instead of one big blockbuster. Of course that opinion is colored by 37 sims a day. IMO, we don't need (as in have to have) a super star really anywhere. We need a butt ton of quality starters and quality depth pieces. Javonte Williams is my only gotta-have-him guy. I think he'll end up being the best RB of this draft. i agree with all that except the "gotta have" javonte williams comment. not that i don't like the guy, i think he'll stud out, but he's one of 7 or 8 guys that i'd love to get. this is a really deep running back class this year. rugger8 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
falcons007 24,854 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, Mister pudding said: I disagree. He was never good, never healthy (even when he played) and the only sin bigger than trading back up in the 1st round to get him was re-signing him. He had great 2012. Falcons didn’t have much of a choice in 2008. They had to draft a LT. The big problem was 6 tackles went by pick 21. Unusual year to be needing an OT. There were no FA OT, the teams made run for tackles. In a normal year, you have 2-3 OT go in first round. As bad as Baker was, he still was serviceable. Resigning him after one great year in 2012 was a mistake. Some hindsight GM bring up Duane Brown but he was terrible first 3 years, worse than Sam Baker. Geneaut 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mister pudding 3,445 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, falcons007 said: He had great 2012. Falcons didn’t have much of a choice in 2008. They had to draft a LT. The big problem was 6 tackles went by pick 21. Unusual year to be needing an OT. There were no FA OT, this teams made run for tackles. In a normal year, you have 2-3 OT go in first round. As bad as Baker was, he still was serviceable. Resigning him after one great year in 2012 was a mistake. Some hindsight GM bring up Duane Brown but he was terrible first 3 years, worse than Sam Baker. I wouldn't say great in 2012. The attached had him as the 27th rated tackle, 6 sacks given up, and MR2 hit the deck an additional 8 times. https://www.pff.com/news/five-signings-that-make-no-sense Quote Link to post Share on other sites
falcons007 24,854 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 19 minutes ago, Mister pudding said: I wouldn't say great in 2012. The attached had him as the 27th rated tackle, 6 sacks given up, and MR2 hit the deck an additional 8 times. https://www.pff.com/news/five-signings-that-make-no-sense Who cares about PFF rating. I would love to see raw stats. Not sure what PFF was smoking but I did remember it was much lower. Here it is, 3.5 sacks in that season. IIRC, two of those came in one game against Redskins. https://www.ocregister.com/2013/01/10/falcons-baker-enjoys-healthy-happy-new-year/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JohnnyFranchise 2,661 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 i'm thinking the sweet spot is somewhere between 10-15. that's where we can maximize our return on the trade and still be in a high spot to draft a day 1 impact starter. top 10 we get a better pick but not as high a return on the trade, lower than 15 we could get a king's ransom for the pick but end up with a lower pick. i'm looking at this from a point of view of "how much will teams give up to move up X number of spots". the later their pick, the more they'll give up, imo. thanat0s 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DonOfThemBirds 19,229 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, falcons007 said: That’s true. I remember reading somewhere, last Player drafted to go to Pro bowl for Patriots was Hernandez. Last 7 years, Patriots drafts have been bad. BB gets these castoffs and make them work. Yep, Belichick is terrible at evaluating fresh college players. He's much better with vets who haven't put it all together yet or not realized how to play to their own strengths. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
falconsd56 26,611 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, DonOfThemBirds said: Yep, Belichick is terrible at evaluating fresh college players. He's much better with vets who haven't put it all together yet or not realized how to play to their own strengths. Jordan Richards was a second round pick. Let that set in. DonOfThemBirds 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DonOfThemBirds 19,229 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, falconsd56 said: Jordan Richards was a second round pick. Let that set in. Yep, would not be surprised if Belichick's ineptitude at drafting aided into Brady leaving. It has started to really catch up with the Pats. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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