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IF we traded down, where's the sweet spot?


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2 hours ago, thanat0s said:

 One thing that's becoming clearer to me is, if we trade back, the sweet spot for us is probably between 10-15. The top tier wants for most teams in the top ten are offensive players, which we don't need outside of a RB at some point, and maybe OL, though I think that only applies if we stay at 4 and Sewell is there. 

The next group are the top defenders that could include Parsons, Surtain or one of the other DBs, Rousseau/Paye, along with one RB, Najee Harris. I expect most, if not all, will be gone by 15. 

So, I think that if we do trade back, it won't be to anyone outside the top 15, unless it's a drop into the mid-late 20s where you can safely elevate a guy who might carry a 1/2 round rating. 16-25 to me is dangerous territory. 

jmo, of course.

12-15 IMO. If all gone at 15....highly unlikely, but if they are......trade back again. 
 

Stockpiling draft picks as NE did during their nearly 20 year dynasty run is never a bad thing if management has a long-term vision.

Something TAFT has zippo of, btw.

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One thing that's becoming clearer to me is, if we trade back, the sweet spot for us is probably between 10-15. The top tier wants for most teams in the top ten are offensive players, which we don't ne

We would have to call you, "Mister pudding pants" is this correct?   🤣

Bruh, you just got rocked by Draftnut of all people. Logout ASAP

9 minutes ago, Vandy said:

12-15 IMO. If all gone at 15....highly unlikely, but if they are......trade back again. 
 

Stockpiling draft picks as NE did during their nearly 20 year dynasty run is never a bad thing if management has a long-term vision.

Something TAFT has zippo of, btw.

Couldn’t agree more.

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I tried to get back into that sweet spot 10-15 (went to 16) on PFN mock and this is what I was able to get. (I know, its just a mock and won't be likely, still fun)

 

team logo
  •  
    16.
    Najee Harris
    RB Alabama
    trade icon
  •  
    35.
    Joseph Ossai
    EDGE Texas
     
  •  
    49.
    Ronnie Perkins
    EDGE Oklahoma
    trade icon
  •  
    68.
    Pete Werner
    LB Ohio State
     
  •  
    79.
    Quinn Meinerz
    OC Wisconsin-Whitewater
    trade icon
  •  
    108.
    Andre Cisco
    S Syracuse
     
  •  
    149.
    Trey Hill
    OC Georgia
     
  •  
    181.
    Cornell Powell
    WR Clemson
     
  •  
    183.
    Deommodore Lenoir
    CB Oregon
     
  •  
    189.
    Jack Anderson
    OG Texas Tech
     
  •  
    218.
    Justin Hilliard
    LB Ohio State
     
  • 2022 ARI 4th
Edited by emc008
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10 minutes ago, Vandy said:

12-15 IMO. If all gone at 15....highly unlikely, but if they are......trade back again. 
 

Stockpiling draft picks as NE did during their nearly 20 year dynasty run is never a bad thing if management has a long-term vision.

Something TAFT has zippo of, btw.

 

To be honest, Belichick's reign on top was a very odd anomaly though.

 

Bill had way more success with inherited players and cast-off's than with a good bit of his draft picks.

 

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26 minutes ago, emc008 said:

I tried to get back into that sweet spot 10-15 (went to 16) on PFN mock and this is what I was able to get. (I know, its just a mock and won't be likely, still fun)

 

team logo
  •  
    16.
    Najee Harris
    RB Alabama
    trade icon
  •  
    35.
    Joseph Ossai
    EDGE Texas
     
  •  
    49.
    Ronnie Perkins
    EDGE Oklahoma
    trade icon
  •  
    68.
    Pete Werner
    LB Ohio State
     
  •  
    79.
    Quinn Meinerz
    OC Wisconsin-Whitewater
    trade icon
  •  
    108.
    Andre Cisco
    S Syracuse
     
  •  
    149.
    Trey Hill
    OC Georgia
     
  •  
    181.
    Cornell Powell
    WR Clemson
     
  •  
    183.
    Deommodore Lenoir
    CB Oregon
     
  •  
    189.
    Jack Anderson
    OG Texas Tech
     
  •  
    218.
    Justin Hilliard
    LB Ohio State
     
  • 2022 ARI 4th

People are obsessed with Harris in the first and are going to be very let down when that doesn’t happen.

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4 hours ago, thanat0s said:

 One thing that's becoming clearer to me is, if we trade back, the sweet spot for us is probably between 10-15. The top tier wants for most teams in the top ten are offensive players, which we don't need outside of a RB at some point, and maybe OL, though I think that only applies if we stay at 4 and Sewell is there. 

The next group are the top defenders that could include Parsons, Surtain or one of the other DBs, Rousseau/Paye, along with one RB, Najee Harris. I expect most, if not all, will be gone by 15. 

So, I think that if we do trade back, it won't be to anyone outside the top 15, unless it's a drop into the mid-late 20s where you can safely elevate a guy who might carry a 1/2 round rating. 16-25 to me is dangerous territory. 

jmo, of course.

I think 8-10 range of we want a QB

10-15 range for anything else. 

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4 hours ago, falconsd56 said:

Why?

We needed a tackle and he was good when healthy...which unfortunately was not enough.

But TD got back several picks 

Infact that trade netted Baker, Harry Douglas, and Bierman.

3 guys who were major contributors to the early success that we had 

Not bad for 2 2nds and a 4th.

 

I disagree. He was never good, never healthy (even when he played) and the only sin bigger than trading back up in the 1st round to get him was re-signing him. 

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I'd trade as far back as we could in the first round to get as many 2nd & 3rds this year, and a 1st next year to plan for picking up a QB. I'd do that with multiple trade backs, instead of one big blockbuster. Of course that opinion is colored by 37 sims a day.

IMO, we don't need (as in have to have) a super star really anywhere. We need a butt ton of quality starters and quality depth pieces. 

Javonte Williams is my only gotta-have-him guy. I think he'll end up being the best RB of this draft.

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3 hours ago, Vandy said:

12-15 IMO. If all gone at 15....highly unlikely, but if they are......trade back again. 
 

Stockpiling draft picks as NE did during their nearly 20 year dynasty run is never a bad thing if management has a long-term vision.

Something TAFT has zippo of, btw.

 

2 hours ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

To be honest, Belichick's reign on top was a very odd anomaly though.

 

Bill had way more success with inherited players and cast-off's than with a good bit of his draft picks.

 

That’s true. I remember reading somewhere, last Player drafted to go to Pro bowl for Patriots was Hernandez. Last 7 years, Patriots drafts have been bad. BB gets these castoffs and make them work.

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4 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

I think our four logical trade down options are #9 with denver, #12 with san fran, #19 with washington and #20 with chicago.

As far as sweet spot? If we are wanting one of these top cbs I would be scared to go past #12. If we are after one of the edge rushers like collins I'd be willing to go to 20 and pick up a haul of picks. It really just depends on what we are targeting.

Anything past #9 and I'm wanting a 2022 1st to go along with whatever else we receive.

Out of everyone I see San Fran at 12. They get the QB to build around and we get Najee. If Smith is smart he knows that he must make the offence work now to justify his hire as the offencive minded HC.  Our offence is so similar to Titans in personnel with the exception of that great power back. That’s Najee imho. Start with him and use the rest on defence (Safety, Edge) and an OG. 

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31 minutes ago, rugger8 said:

I'd trade as far back as we could in the first round to get as many 2nd & 3rds this year, and a 1st next year to plan for picking up a QB. I'd do that with multiple trade backs, instead of one big blockbuster. Of course that opinion is colored by 37 sims a day.

IMO, we don't need (as in have to have) a super star really anywhere. We need a butt ton of quality starters and quality depth pieces. 

Javonte Williams is my only gotta-have-him guy. I think he'll end up being the best RB of this draft.

i agree with all that except the "gotta have" javonte williams comment. not that i don't like the guy, i think he'll stud out, but he's one of 7 or 8 guys that i'd love to get. this is a really deep running back class this year.

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2 hours ago, Mister pudding said:

I disagree. He was never good, never healthy (even when he played) and the only sin bigger than trading back up in the 1st round to get him was re-signing him. 

He had great 2012. Falcons didn’t have much of a choice in 2008. They had to draft a LT.  The big problem was 6 tackles went by pick 21. Unusual year to be needing an OT. There were no FA OT, the teams made run for tackles. In a normal year, you have 2-3 OT go in first round. As bad as Baker was, he still was serviceable. Resigning him after one great year in 2012 was a mistake. Some hindsight GM bring up Duane Brown but he was terrible first 3 years, worse than Sam Baker. 

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7 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

He had great 2012. Falcons didn’t have much of a choice in 2008. They had to draft a LT.  The big problem was 6 tackles went by pick 21. Unusual year to be needing an OT. There were no FA OT, this teams made run for tackles. In a normal year, you have 2-3 OT go in first round. As bad as Baker was, he still was serviceable. Resigning him after one great year in 2012 was a mistake. Some hindsight GM bring up Duane Brown but he was terrible first 3 years, worse than Sam Baker. 

I wouldn't say great in 2012. The attached had him as the 27th rated tackle, 6 sacks given up, and MR2 hit the deck an additional 8 times. 

https://www.pff.com/news/five-signings-that-make-no-sense

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19 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

I wouldn't say great in 2012. The attached had him as the 27th rated tackle, 6 sacks given up, and MR2 hit the deck an additional 8 times. 

https://www.pff.com/news/five-signings-that-make-no-sense

Who cares about PFF rating. I would love to see raw stats. 
Not sure what PFF was smoking but I did remember it was much lower. Here it is, 3.5 sacks in that season. IIRC, two of those came in one game against Redskins. 
https://www.ocregister.com/2013/01/10/falcons-baker-enjoys-healthy-happy-new-year/

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i'm thinking the sweet spot is somewhere between 10-15. that's where we can maximize our return on the trade and still be in a high spot to draft a day 1 impact starter. top 10 we get a better pick but not as high a return on the trade, lower than 15 we could get a king's ransom for the pick but end up with a lower pick.

i'm looking at this from a point of view of "how much will teams give up to move up X number of spots". the later their pick, the more they'll give up, imo.

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1 hour ago, falcons007 said:

 

That’s true. I remember reading somewhere, last Player drafted to go to Pro bowl for Patriots was Hernandez. Last 7 years, Patriots drafts have been bad. BB gets these castoffs and make them work.

 

Yep, Belichick is terrible at evaluating fresh college players.

He's much better with vets who haven't put it all together yet or not realized how to play to their own strengths.

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