Jump to content

Defensive line win rates and the curious case of the Atlanta Falcons


Recommended Posts

I don't know if it has has been discussed, but ESPN has a new stat involving "win rates" for  offensive and defensive lines as well as the players individually.  It involves how long it takes for someone to beat their block of maintain their block based of type of player being graded.   Here is the link: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

The offensive line grades were in the range I expected with pass blocking being 16th and rub blocking being 28th.  

However, he defensive lines numbers were surprising (to me anyways).  The Falcons defensive line had the fourth best win rate against both the run and pass.  This baffled me and and I have been trying to figure out a good explanation.  The only things I can think of are:

1.  The Defensive line was not as bad as they seemed and may not be as big of an issue as many of us think.

2. The stat is not relevant.  

3.  Could an elite player  skew the stat?  Grady is in the top ten pass rushers and run stoppers per this stat.  Could his numbers significantly inflate the line's overall average?

4.  Other.  There is something I am missing

Thoughts?

Edited by wuskillzz
Link to post
Share on other sites

We stopped the run decently.  Applying poor edge pressure, and being able to lock down the secondary contributed to our overall poor defensive play.  But, if the DL is stuffing the run, maybe that's what is skewing (for want of a better word) the numbers?  I suck with football stats.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I almost wanted to cry when i looked at those lists how the **** did Ty fricken Sambrallo and Wes Schweitzer make the top 10 on any list for their position in this case was for Run blocking at OT and OG.  But yet neither were good enough to do that here and were deemed worse than what we kept. 

It pisses me off that our coaches are so bad that what we deem to be backups and below avg players are really above avg players on any decent team with a good Coaching system. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

I almost wanted to cry when i looked at those lists how the **** did Ty fricken Sambrallo and Wes Schweitzer make the top 10 on any list for their position in this case was for Run blocking at OT and OG.  But yet neither were good enough to do that here and were deemed worse than what we kept. 

It pisses me off that our coaches are so bad that what we deem to be backups and below avg players are really above avg players on any decent team with a good Coaching system. 

That actually makes Thomas Dimitroff look good

Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, raysnill1 said:

don't get me started. TD should have never been fired.

This is all dan quinn's fault. Our whoever knew the ship was sinking on the staff that didnt say anything to him. I almost cried when they said shanahan was possible going to SF...... i know i know, its the past... we were so close.

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, wuskillzz said:

I don't know if it has has been discussed, but ESPN has a new stat involving "win rates" for  offensive and defensive lines as well as the players individually.  It involves how long it takes for someone to beat their block of maintain their block based of type of player being graded.   Here is the link: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings

The offensive line grades were in the range I expected with pass blocking being 16th and rub blocking being 28th.  

However, he defensive lines numbers were surprising (to me anyways).  The Falcons defensive line had the fourth best win rate against both the run and pass.  This baffled me and and I have been trying to figure out a good explanation.  The only things I can think of are:

1.  The Defensive line was not as bad as they seemed and may not be as big of an issue as many of us think.

2. The stat is not relevant.  

3.  Could an elite player  skew the stat?  Grady is in the top ten pass rushers and run stoppers per this stat.  Could his numbers significantly inflate the line's overall average?

4.  Other.  There is something I am missing

Thoughts?

Number 2 is my pick after reading their 2019 and 2020 win rate stats. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, raysnill1 said:

don't get me started. TD should have never been fired.

 

1 hour ago, red falcon said:

This is all dan quinn's fault. Our whoever knew the ship was sinking on the staff that didnt say anything to him. I almost cried when they said shanahan was possible going to SF...... i know i know, its the past... we were so close.

If Dimitroff was counting on someone else to tell him that, then actually he really did need to go, or else we'd just be doing 2019 part 3.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

secondary was terrible so it didn't really matter what the DL did.

 

43 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I'm going from memory, but my recollection is we had a lot of snaps where the ball just came out ridiculously quick, which points to a coverage issue.  That's completely anecdotal and observational, but it is what I recall.

Yup. You can't pressure the QB when he has 3 wide open receivers a second after the snap. People are already forgetting how atrocious our secondary was this past year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

 

Yup. You can't pressure the QB when he has 3 wide open receivers a second after the snap. People are already forgetting how atrocious our secondary was this past year.

Which is why I'm an advocate of attacking the secondary In free agency. Its our quickest path to getting the defense back on track. We need everything new except cb1. We have to find a safety and a Cb in free agency. We need a slot guy and a boundary guy both. Find the best value and then draft the other. We need to draft a safety to replace neal too. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Which is why I'm an advocate of attacking the secondary In free agency. Its our quickest path to getting the defense back on track. We need everything new except cb1. We have to find a safety and a Cb in free agency. We need a slot guy and a boundary guy both. Find the best value and then draft the other. We need to draft a safety to replace neal too. 

We could potentially fix our secondary in the draft alone, but you can't gamble on things falling that way. 

For what it's worth, though, I kind of like Oliver in the slot. We need to get Sheff out of there and definitely two safety's are needed. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

We could potentially fix our secondary in the draft alone, but you can't gamble on things falling that way. 

For what it's worth, though, I kind of like Oliver in the slot. We need to get Sheff out of there and definitely two safety's are needed. 

We could, but if we went that route we would be spending almost our entire draft on the secondary. I think we need at least 4 players back there and maybe 5. Oliver was better in the slot, but still poop overall imo. Sheff and Oliver both need to go I think.

I would like to see Desmond King brought in to play the slot and Marcus Williams for FS. Two signings that make a ton of sense and have that networking without or coach and GM.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

We could, but if we went that route we would be spending almost our entire draft on the secondary. I think we need at least 4 players back there and maybe 5. Oliver was better in the slot, but still poop overall imo. Sheff and Oliver both need to go I think.

I would like to see Desmond King brought in to play the slot and Marcus Williams for FS. Two signings that make a ton of sense and have that networking without or coach and GM.

I think Oliver could be good if he were the worst player in our secondary and not the third best. Totally not opposed to upgrading him if the opportunity comes around of course.

Marcus Williams is my dream though. Then go get Moehrig in the draft and we're happy. Or Maye/Washington. There are a lot of ways to fix safety this offseason, I hope we finally do. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Falcons Fan MVP said:

That actually makes Thomas Dimitroff look good

Im actually a TD supporter and thought he did well overall and didn't deserve to be fired.  Now thats not to say he can't be upgraded or a fresh look at the team won't help.  So im not against TD being changed for a fresh set of eyes on the team with a new coach.  But i think he was very good for us over the years and hit on alot more things than he got wrong.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...