Quarterback At Four

[Tim Mazetti 12,122]

Examining the Falcons 1st round options: Quarterback

By David J Walker@FalcoholicDW

 

 

Having a draft pick in the top 5 is actually somewhat rare for the Falcons. The last time it happened was in 2008 in the aftermath of the Michael Vick scandal and the Bobby Petrino disaster of 2007. Having a pick this high gives you a host of options, with the hope being that you won’t be here again for a long while.

In this series, we’ll take a look at all the different ways the Falcons can use this pick to rebuild under a new regime. Today, we start with using it to draft a quarterback, one of the most controversial options and one that’s frequently discussed both here and in the wider fanbase.

Why it makes sense

Matt Ryan will be 36 this year and his performance the last two years has been below his normally high standards, albeit not drastically and under the watchful eye of Dirk Koetter. In the eyes of many fans, Ryan may only have 2 or 3 more good years left in him, and this QB class is good enough to find a future starter outside of the top pick. A player like Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, or Trey Lance may be there at 4, and those players have the potential to be great QBs. Plus, as noted above, the Falcons have not had many top-5 picks over the years so this opportunity may not present itself again for some time.

There’s also the fact that Atlanta has a brand new front office and coaching staff coming in. Ryan will have to be replaced at some point, and it’s hard to fault a new front office for trying to find “their guy” at the beginning of their tenure. After all, it’s exactly what Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith did 13 years ago with Ryan, though Atlanta had no obvious long-term quarterback at that time.

Why it might be the wrong move

Barring a stunning move by the Jaguars, the Falcons won’t be able to get the top QB of this class in Trevor Lawrence. After him, the next three prospects look promising but all have their own sets of issues. Zach Wilson is a bit of a one-year wonder with some potential character concerns. Justin Fields is incredibly talented but his field vision needs to improve. Trey Lance may be incredibly gifted, but he has so few starting games under his belt. That’s not to say these guys can’t succeed, but all of them have notable question marks, and if you pick a player this high you can’t really afford to miss.

On top of that, we’ve seen recently that many quarterbacks can play into their late 30s at a high level. Ryan has been incredibly healthy in his career and his physical talents don’t appear to be a problem. He could very well play for 4 to 5 more years if he stays healthy, and with a great team around him could at least keep this team contending over that span.

Finally, when looking at this team, there are a host of spots on the defense in need of fixing. The safety situation is dire as is the need for multiple pass rushers. The team could also stand to continue investing in the offensive line and the running back position is a big question mark. Quarterback - right now - is just not a big need.

[Clark Kent™ 4,539]

I would be extremely surprised if we take a QB at 4. I'm not with taking a QB at 4 and having him sit for potentially 2 years. He definitely won't start year 1 and he may not even start year 2. I mean for all we know, our team could have a really good year and they won't want to mess that chemistry up by changing QB's. 

[Tim Mazetti 12,122]

12 minutes ago, Clark Kent™ said:

I would be extremely surprised if we take a QB at 4. I'm not with taking a QB at 4 and having him sit for potentially 2 years. He definitely won't start year 1 and he may not even start year 2. I mean for all we know, our team could have a really good year and they won't want to mess that chemistry up by changing QB's. 

Yes, but this may be a gift in that the forthcoming draftable QBs maynot be as good. MR2 is world class. I know. 

I like to hedge though. A player who touches the ball on the snap is golden. Ryan can play for four? more years. Options are intriguing at four. Better not miss.

Idonno. This will be good to watch.

 

[Em_Jae20 275]

If Zach Wilson is there I don't pass on him.  I think his talent at the most important and key position on the football field is too much to pass on even if he has to sit a year or 2.  If we make a playoff run next year with MR2 and we want to give Zach a shot trade MR2 and see what you can get for.  The market is trending toward offensive players and in a post playoff scenario MR2 will garner interest

[Tim Mazetti 12,122]

1 minute ago, Em_Jae20 said:

If Zach Wilson is there I don't pass on him.  I think his talent at the most important and key position on the football field is too much to pass on even if he has to sit a year or 2.  If we make a playoff run next year with MR2 and we want to give Zach a shot trade MR2 and see what you can get for.  The market is trending toward offensive players and in a post playoff scenario MR2 will garner interest

Yessir. Must have a Franchise QB to compete in the league.

[atljbo 21,740]

24 minutes ago, Clark Kent™ said:

I would be extremely surprised if we take a QB at 4. I'm not with taking a QB at 4 and having him sit for potentially 2 years. He definitely won't start year 1 and he may not even start year 2. I mean for all we know, our team could have a really good year and they won't want to mess that chemistry up by changing QB's. 

Sit 2 years making 6 mil in 2021 ... then around 7.5 mil in 2022..... To sit andddddd to go along with what Matt cap hit will be

[MoFalconsFan56 4,294]

I’d rather trade down and draft Najee but I’m not gonna be upset if they go qb 

[thanat0s 5,196]

Boy, haven’t seen one of these threads in 30 seconds...

[Sponge 20,648]

You guys are too brutal for me to post a mock draft.

[ATLskinjob 1,026]

58 minutes ago, Tim Mazetti said:

Yes, but this may be a gift in that the forthcoming draftable QBs maynot be as good. MR2 is world class. I know. 

I like to hedge though. A player who touches the ball on the snap is golden. Ryan can play for four? more years. Options are intriguing at four. Better not miss.

Idonno. This will be good to watch.

 

I'm very much in the "keep Matty Ice" camp, but man I would hate to be in our front office's shoes. Who would want to be the GM that passed on a potentially great QB? Glad that decision is not mine to make.

[papachaz 19,271]

1 hour ago, Tim Mazetti said:

Yes, but this may be a gift in that the forthcoming draftable QBs maynot be as good. MR2 is world class. I know. 

I like to hedge though. A player who touches the ball on the snap is golden. Ryan can play for four? more years. Options are intriguing at four. Better not miss.

Idonno. This will be good to watch.

 

and then, they may be better

and there are a ton of current QBs playing that had less than two years starting in college. so how do we know that next guy won't be out there next year or two years from now. 

trade back, get some next year picks to use to trade up if need be.

[Bobby.Digital 4,147]

QB at 4 is the only move 

[FalconFanSince1970 24,759]

I'd ride Ryan and Julio out til the end of their lifetime contracts, unless some team loses their mind and offers a deal we can't refuse. That's what Dimi set up. There will be college boys coming out every year that will be just as attractive. Even NFL pros that might make more since. Brady just won a Bowl. Stafford just got traded. Watson is on the move. Build a supporting cast then add the QB when it makes more sense.

[THEHEADCOACH 3,357]

If they take a QB at 4, they are tanking this season (maybe more) and I won't waste my time or money on them.  There will be potential great QBs in every draft and a bunch of bust. You ride with Ryan until he's done. Then you draft one and pray. You don't draft one with all the needs we have and money tied up in our current QB. Stay off the QB carousel.

[falcons007 24,347]

2 hours ago, Tim Mazetti said:

Yes, but this may be a gift in that the forthcoming draftable QBs maynot be as good. MR2 is world class. I know. 

I like to hedge though. A player who touches the ball on the snap is golden. Ryan can play for four? more years. Options are intriguing at four. Better not miss.

Idonno. This will be good to watch.

 

Yet every year outside of very few #1 over all picks, the top 5 QB have been busts. It’s laughable to think there won’t be any great QB outside top 5 or in years to come. 

[falcons007 24,347]

45 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

I'd ride Ryan and Julio out til the end of their lifetime contracts, unless some team loses their mind and offers a deal we can't refuse. That's what Dimi set up. There will be college boys coming out every year that will be just as attractive. Even NFL pros that might make more since. Brady just won a Bowl. Stafford just got traded. Watson is on the move. Build a supporting cast then add the QB when it makes more sense.

If AS and TF want to stick around, build a team and do some damage next two years. Second year seems to be prime for coaches to make SB run. Win the SB and you earned few years to go through new Qb transition.

[Rings 7,452]

4 hours ago, atljbo said:

Sit 2 years making 6 mil in 2021 ... then around 7.5 mil in 2022..... To sit andddddd to go along with what Matt cap hit will be

Stop it with your logic.

[Rings 7,452]

2 hours ago, THEHEADCOACH said:

If they take a QB at 4, they are tanking this season (maybe more) and I won't waste my time or money on them.  There will be potential great QBs in every draft and a bunch of bust. You ride with Ryan until he's done. Then you draft one and pray. You don't draft one with all the needs we have and money tied up in our current QB. Stay off the QB carousel.

And since tanking isn’t real in the NFL, we won’t take a QB.  Thank god.

[Red Bandana 340]

Take the qb at 4 and have him sit a year. Chances are we’re picking top 10 again next year. Draft the top running back next year then Arthur smith can finally run his offense 

[Rings 7,452]

4 hours ago, Red Bandana said:

Take the qb at 4 and have him sit a year. Chances are we’re picking top 10 again next year. Draft the top running back next year then Arthur smith can finally run his offense 

Smith doesn’t need a top back to run his offense, Henry wasn’t the Henry you know now prior to Smith getting to Tenn.  Also, if TF wants to be a GM for more than one season he isn’t taking a RB top ten.

[Herr Doktor 8,317]

This will be a tough call for the Falcons.  

[falcons007 24,347]

12 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

This will be a tough call for the Falcons.  

Not really. They don't  approach the draft like fans. Fans like some players and want the Roster to bend for accommodating their fav shiny new prospect. TF and AS will approach on what's best for Roster goals and who fits or doesn't fit. The teams draft board is likely much different than media or fan YouTube draft boards.

[Herr Doktor 8,317]

2 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Not really. They don't  approach the draft like fans. Fans like some players and want the Roster to bend for accommodating their fav shiny new prospect. TF and AS will approach on what's best for Roster goals and who fits or doesn't fit. The teams draft board is likely much different than media or fan YouTube draft boards.

And I love that.  

[ike barn87987 1,771]

I’ve come to this conclusion. It’s either Sewell or Chase. If not one of them it’s a trade down for Slater.

[Jerz #GurleySZN 7,189]

A top 5 pick warrants taking a "can't miss" quarterback or defensive end since these  two positions have the most influence on the outcome of games. Unfortunately, there isn't a DE that warrants this high a draft pick so that leaves QB as the logical choice. 

A generational talent in any other position could warrant a top 5 pick also but there don't seem to be many any of these either; especially in positions we need.

The hit rate for QBs in the first is higher than any other round, and higher than all other rounds combined. 

 

Last 20 years

 

Top 15 is 50%

1st round is 35%

2nd round is less than 10%

3rd and below 1.5%

That’s based on finding a player who can actually run your franchise for a 10 year window. 

If ever you want a higher chance of taking a QB you want to be where we are now. We can move around inside the 15 and get some extra assets but you might get beaten to the punch if you want a QB still. After that your odds drop 1/3, still respectable, but less than 10% refutes this notion that it’s easy to get a QB outside the first. Those guys are outliers for the most part.