Jump to content

Recommended Posts

((Can't figure out how to change the font, ah well. Don't wanna have to go back bolding everything, so here goes))

Real early in the process, so I’m sure things are gonna change a lot going forward…but I figure it’d be fun to try and predict what this team wants to do (or at least what I’d like them to do) before Free Agency kicks off. Not as crazy detailed this time since cap is up in the air, and I still haven’t watched some of the guys I’d like us to draft in as much depth as I want to, but yeah.

Using Spotrac for our base salary cap (186.8 cap after rollover, about 23 mil over the cap right now), bolded means it’s this year’s cap hit/cap relief.

Restructures

Matt Ryan (frees up ~14.5 mil) – only restructure I want us to do. I love having Julio and Jake on the team, but a big restructure (while freeing up about 17.5 mil between the two) means both are MUCH more difficult to trade or move on from in the following years. Worst comes to worst, it makes a bit more sense to restructure Matthews, but I’d like for them to wait on Julio until we see how this season goes and how Ridley develops.

Didn’t talk Debo or Jarrett because they better fit under…

Extensions

Grady Jarrett (two years left on contract, extend for another 3, can free up to 10 mil in space) – Jarrett needs to be the biggest building block on the DL, and arguably the biggest on defense period. Extending him with two years left on the contract (and giving him a bunch more guaranteed money) keeps Son of Tuggle happy and balling.

Debo is one of my favorite Falcons, if not my favorite outright. That said, with Foye having the potential to get a new contract, I might wait on extending Debo to incentivize competition (besides, I doubt he wants an extension during COVID times after a down season since he’ll get less). He’s getting 12.5 mil this season anyways, hardly the reason we’re short on space.

Cuts

Ricardo Allen, James Carpenter, and Allen Bailey (frees up 14.8 mil total) – all straightforward cuts here. Guys getting either overpaid, underperforming, or a combination of the two.

Trade Away

Dante Fowler to Bears for 2021 5th round pick (frees up 9.2 mil) – Fowler is just a year removed from a double-digit sack campaign and the Bears need a guy opposite Mack. With guys like Mack and Hicks on the line, allowed to stand up in base and stunt in nickel packages, Fowler can thrive while not having to be “the guy.” And the Bears get Fowler for ~9-10 mil this year due to us taking on about half his cap hit. They can extend him pretty easily if he balls out.

Summary

These moves leave the Falcons with about 25.5 mil in cap space. Keep in mind, the salary cap could be lower or higher next year, and if we went ham restructuring Julio and Jake, then extending Debo…we could have ANOTHER 23.5 mil in cap space. So keep that in mind before getting your panties in a wad over my suggested Free Agency and trade moves. If it doesn’t add up with the rookie class, pretend the first year cap hit is lower, someone else is restructured, whatever you like.

Re-Sign

Younghoe Koo (avg 4.5 mil/yr, first year 3 mil cap hit)
(Vet min signings, all were either injured or won’t have much competition on the FA market)
Darqueze Dennard
Brandon Powell
Matt Gono
Jaeden Graham
Jacob Tuoti-Mariner
Sharrod Neasman
Charles Harris

Just being real with ya – I don’t see us keeping any of our “bigger” FAs leaving this season, aside from maybe Neal if he doesn’t generate interest, and I don’t see any of the guys I want us to keep outside of Koo getting more than a vet min contract. If you have an argument, have at it, but we got guys like Dennard for vet min last year and he got injured, guys like Tuoti-Mariner had no interest beforehand…just not all that worried.

Trade For

Harrison Smith, S – 2021 4th round, conditional 2022 5th round (extend after trade for 3 years, no guaranteed money left on his contract, can easily get 2021 number to ~5 mil) – Smith is on the last year of his contract and the writing is on the wall – 32 years old, Anthony Harris coming due for a contract? The Vikings are gonna opt for Harris. That said, I watched the Vikings plenty this year, and Smith is still the better safety. Dude was really good this last year and gives us a ton of positional versatility at our weakest spot (safety). Pull the trigger.

I wanted to try and include a trade for JJ Watt too, but I get the feeling he’ll either 1) be traded to an immediate contender since that’s what he wants, or 2) refuse to take a pay cut with the trade and be released. But man, I’d love having a guy like him on this team.

Sign

Marcus Williams, S: 5 years, 52 mil (6 mil) – Yeah, we all love the Minneapolis Miracle, but you know what I love more? Safeties that can actually ball. Smith and Williams would legitimately be the best tandem this team has had in its long and mostly miserable history. And versatility in both players too – let’s go all out making a weakness a strength, even if it’s a bit pricy.

Chris Carson, RB: 3 years, 17 mil (4 mil) – Do you want Javonte Williams, but can’t fit him into your mock based on the other players you’re taking in the draft? Then you might want Chris Carson. It’s a little crazy how similar the two players are. Carson isn’t gonna be “cheap,” considering his relative age and smaller load of carries. That said, he’s dealt with some injuries and isn’t as dynamic as other backs. Fine by me. Dude almost never goes down at first contact and refuses to go out of bounds without a fight. As part of a multi-faceted rushing attack, he’s a threat that has to be constantly accounted for. Especially since he isn’t one of the bigger backs that can’t catch or block.

Melvin Ingram, DE: 1 year, 8 mil (8 mil) – Ingram is going to be 32 coming off an injury, trying to make the most of what’s likely his last chance to earn another big contract in the NFL. Ingram is an all-around player still capable of giving you 7-12 sacks a season and leading the team in QB hits if healthy. Let him prove that and give the younger guys a vet to look up to.

There are a bunch of other low and mid-tier guys I’d be into, but for now I’m trying to keep it reasonable. Fontenot has a penchant for turning low and mid-tier free agents into great contributors (and more), so I’m looking forward to what he’s got planned.

Draft

1(4) – trading down with Denver so they can get their QB of DA FUTURE. We give up our 1st and a 5th comp, and in return, we get their 1st and 2nd this year and their 1st next year. Rolling into next year with two 1st round picks gives the new FO tons of flexibility after evaluating the roster. And after the trade, let’s get it started with actual picks…

1(9): Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

GettyImages-1173003042-2-1024x683.jpg

Best CB in the draft, I’d honestly be fine with him at 4. The speed narrative is gonna be blown when he runs a 4.4 at the Combine (not like that’s the most important thing to begin with). In Pees defense, paired with Terrell on the other side and two stellar safeties in Smith and Williams, this secondary is gonna be nasty.

2(36): Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami

USATSI_13405764.jpg

Stupid talented TE, and a better blocking-receiver combo than arguably any other TE in the draft. Having Hurst and Jordan in run formations makes this offense incredibly hard to prep for. Then consider that all of our RBs can catch (just wait till you see the guy we’re drafting) and we have Julio and/or Ridley on the outside…that’s the kind of thing that keeps defensive coordinators up at night.

2(41): Ar’Darius Washington, S, Texas Christian University

USATSI_13292017.jpg

But FYM, we already allocated a ton of resources to safety! Suck it up buttercup. Don’t especially care if this is “too high” to pick Washington, he’s the best safety in the draft imho. His feel for the flow of the game is unmatched and he’s as juiced as a 5’8 guy could be. Vicious tackler in the open field, ballhawk, and has the versatility to get on the field right away, whether that’s as a nickel, a special teams gunner, a third safety – just get him out there. The goal of turning our biggest weakness on the team into a strength continues.

3(68): Alim McNeill, DT, North Carolina State

10127067.jpg

I was torn between taking an RB Rd 2 or 3 to pair with our 4th round guy and taking a big NT, but McNeill’s pass rushing ability won me over. Not quite as freaky as Dexter Lawrence coming out, but still a crazy mover for such a big dude up front. Especially given the lack of investment in the DL overall, this kind of move gives us more flexibility and ups the caliber of our short yardage defense while still offering some pass rush ability on other downs. McNeill is a hoss, and while I was torn between him and Shelvin, McNeill’s ceiling wound up winning out.

4(109): Kenny Gainwell, RB, Memphis

kenneth-gainwell.jpg?w=876&h=493&crop=1

You can’t fake the lightning-in-a-bottle type playmaker. It’s just one of those things where when you see it…you know it. Gainwell is a threat all over the field. RB? Absolutely. WR? He runs the tree. Returner? Let’s have an actual competition for once. And the guy can gun and block, too. Carson as the “main” dude with Gainwell, Smith, and Ollison behind means that this team has a RB group capable of actually striking fear in opponents for once. Versatility all over the place.

5(149) – Chris Rumph II, DE, Duke

Rumph.jpg

II - II: Electric Boogaloo. Rumph may very well not be at this spot when the draft comes around (ditto everyone else – it’s a tricky thing – but I’m going by where these guys tend to be ranked atm). But if he is, this move is a no brainer. Rumph is a smaller guy, but maybe the most refined pass rusher coming out. If you’re looking for the next Maxx Crosby cat to be taken late and blossom early, he’s likely it. Though the next guy is my other pick in that respect…

5(165) – Elerson Smith, DE, Northern Iowa

UNI_3811.JPG

How the heck did this guy fly under the radar? I still have trouble finding his college games (didn’t play in 2020, some 2019 games on YT where he looked really good), but he’s picking up steam after a great Senior Bowl. Smith has crazy measurables (6’6 and 260+ with long arms), maintains surprisingly good leverage, and has great bend for a bigger guy. Can use refinement like a lot of smaller school dudes, but he’s not that far off if I’m being honest. Both he and Rumph can compete for pass rushing snaps early with potential for starting in a couple years, if not sooner.

5(178) – Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

Paulson-Adebo_JMS_083119_291.jpg

I was willing to take this dude in the 2nd or 3rd last year but he’s completely fallen off the radar somehow. Adebo is a former WR with smarts to go with athleticism. Great hips and a really good man corner. Notice a theme? Drafting guys who have legit starter potential, smart guys who won’t be liabilities as depth.

6(190) – Frank Darby, WR, Arizona State

_PV21479_0.JPG?itok=5yFFYo2K

Started watching Darby because he played with my dude Jayden Daniels (who I would love for us to target in the 2022 draft). Darby is the kind of guy who can develop into a stellar 3rd WR like Gage has for us while offering contributions on STs immediately. He’s crazy talented when it comes to making adjustments for catches, he runs clean and crisp routes, and he’s a mean run blocker to boot. As close to a can’t-miss as you can get this late in the draft.

6(218) – Ben Mason, FB, Michigan

03f33329-d437-46a8-b94c-ae8c167f4be3-BM.

A favorite for some of the TATF crowd. A big mean fullback who can help in short yardage situations, whether he’s the one toting the rock or the one crushing linebackers in the hole. And he’s a mean ******* when it comes to special teams coverage too, ensuring we’re getting the most out of him when he’s active game-day. Decent hands as well…fullbacks are as good as it gets when it comes to late round value, and he’s gonna be a good one.

Let’s take a look at where we’re at now.

On defense, this team suddenly has one of the better starting secondaries in the league, with Surtain and Terrell at CB while the more experienced Smith and Williams man the safety spots. Pairing that with our talented LBs and a retooled DL with intelligent and versatile players means that this defense can be at least solid and arguably very good. Washington and McNeill offer great developmental depth and situational talent, with other potential homeruns that can contribute on STs immediately from Day 3.

On offense, we have one of the scariest packages on run downs of any team. Think of a 2 TE heavy I, one WR in Julio, Mason at FB, Carson in the backfield. You have to stack the box against that kind of look, but you have to double Julio (because why wouldn’t you?), and if it’s play action, there are four guys who can make you pay. Swap Carson with Gainwell and it’s even scarier. This is the kind of offense where misdirection and motion can thrive, and that kind of stuff wears down a defense from running sideline to sideline…and then Carson closes it out.

Thoughts? Wanna tell me how much you hate all that investment at safety and secondary instead of the DL? Or why I didn’t take Harris/Williams/Etienne early? (Fwiw I'd love to) Go for it. The QB crowd is gonna be miserable though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

I think your free agency and trades are wildly imaginative but the mock draft is pretty solid and realistic. 

That said, I don't think the Broncos are giving up a future 1st in addition to the 2021 2nd. I think the price is only the 2nd rounder. 

I saw an article where Denver gives up 2 first and 2 seconds plus this year's 4th. If it's for their QB (and only 2 QBs are off the board at #4) with SF, Carolina, Indi, Washington and possibly NE all probably vying to give up a haul, it's easily 2 first rounders without us giving anything back.

And if not 2 first rounders then probably as many as 4 picks in 2021. QB isn't going to be cheap in this draft.

I love OPs draft. I think a couple of the FAs might be out of our price range though. And Gainwell in the 4th. He might be gone by the time we pick in the 3rd. That dude is all gas no brakes.

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

 

I like some of your ideas I think they're great however we need to address the offense of line with  one of our pics and I still say (and call me crazy) there's a slight chance Matt Ryan goes to Indy

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

I saw an article where Denver gives up 2 first and 2 seconds plus this year's 4th. If it's for their QB (and only 2 QBs are off the board at #4) with SF, Carolina, Indi, Washington and possibly NE all probably vying to give up a haul, it's easily 2 first rounders without us giving anything back.

And if not 2 first rounders then probably as many as 4 picks in 2021. QB isn't going to be cheap in this draft.

I love OPs draft. I think a couple of the FAs might be out of our price range though. And Gainwell in the 4th. He might be gone by the time we pick in the 3rd. That dude is all gas no brakes.

When Miami traded up from #12 to #3 in 2013 to pick Deion Jordan, all they gave the Raiders was their 2nd rounder #42 overall. Now maybe the price goes up if multiple teams want a QB, but that is the normal cost. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Summerhill said:

When Miami traded up from #12 to #3 in 2013 to pick Deion Jordan, all they gave the Raiders was their 2nd rounder #42 overall. Now maybe the price goes up if multiple teams want a QB, but that is the normal cost. 

Raiders got robbed in that deal and like you said it was possibly due to it not being for a QB.

Look at how much the Colts got from moving down just 3 spots (3 to 6) with the Jets for Darnold. They got 3 2nd round picks (2 current, 1 future).

Chicago gave SF a 3rd, 4th, Future 3rd to move up 1 spot for Mitch.

Buffalo got a 1st, 3rd and future 1st from trading down with KC for Mahomes.

Cleveland got a 1st & Future 1st from trading down with Houston for Watson.

Typically if a QB is involved, The compensation is extremely high.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

When Miami traded up from #12 to #3 in 2013 to pick Deion Jordan, all they gave the Raiders was their 2nd rounder #42 overall. Now maybe the price goes up if multiple teams want a QB, but that is the normal cost. 

I don't know about normal. I don't think there is a normal. As I look back, it's actually hard to find a trade into the top 4 that didn't require a future 1st. Even saw one involving the Jets in an exchange of #2 and #3 that included the following year's first. There's such a range of disparity, I'm not sure there is a normal.

But I think it's all about multiple offers and playing them off each other. Carolina could jack it all up by trading up in front of us with Miami to.

It will be interesting. Hopefully there aren't a lot of QB exchanges like the Rams-Lions one before the draft.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Raiders got robbed in that deal and like you said it was possibly due to it not being for a QB.

Look at how much the Colts got from moving down just 3 spots (3 to 6) with the Jets for Darnold. They got 3 2nd round picks (2 current, 1 future).

Chicago gave SF a 3rd, 4th, Future 3rd to move up 1 spot for Mitch.

Buffalo got a 1st, 3rd and future 1st from trading down with KC for Mahomes.

Cleveland got a 1st & Future 1st from trading down with Houston for Watson.

Typically if a QB is involved, The compensation is extremely high.

Good stuff. The Deion Jordan trade popped into my head because it was close to the same picks we're talking about. But looking back 2013 was a pretty lousy draft class so I guess teams weren't going all out trying to make big moves. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

i don't love taking a TE at 36 but i don't hate it either.

i like a rb like carson if it's cheap enough, but i'd rather load up on rb's at the draft and udfa. that said, there are a few guys i'd take over gainwell, although i do think he can be pretty good.

overall i like it tho, i'd be pretty jacked up going into camp with an off-season like that.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm kind of in the camp that the mock having us snag 3 safeties is a little excessive, but if Pees wants to use 3 safety looks, cool...plus depth/competition isn't a bad thing. If I remember right, at least for a brief time in Seattle, Carson was in the dog house for ball security issues. I agree with other commentary regarding wanting an OG, but overall well thought out.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I like it for the most part. Not real keen on the harrison smith trade or the ingram signing tho. I think we need to try and continue to get younger. I also don't like the idea of trading fowler. I think we see a different guy when the dc isn't trying to shove a round peg into a square hole. I want to keep fowler at olb and build our defense and pass rush around all of our talented backers. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...