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Tom Brady’s success provides reason to consider building around, not replacing, Matt Ryan


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Tom Brady’s success provides reason to consider building around, not replacing, Matt Ryan

As it turns out, you can win with an old quarterback.

 

The 2020 season is thankfully a memory so far in the rearview you have to squint to make out the specifics. The offense in Atlanta was terrible, to the extent that the Falcons have their highest draft spot since the team’s quarterback went to federal jail and the team’s head coach left for a college job mere hours after a loss.

A lot has to go wrong to pick this high. It doesn’t just happen by accident. Fans have to suffer for months and months to get one of those top picks.

With that rare slot near the top of the draft, the Falcons have a shot at one of the top quarterbacks not named Trevor Lawrence. Fans saw what Justin Herbert did for the Los Angeles Chargers. Lamar Jackson for the Baltimore Ravens. Deshaun Watson for the Houston Texans. Patrick Mahomes for the Kansas City Chiefs. Kyler Murray for the Arizona Cardinals.

There are many dynamic, young quarterbacks reforming what we expect from offenses. Yet even those who reached their potential have only occasionally turned those performances into wins. Even Mahomes, the top quarterback in the league, struggled mightily once offensive line injuries started mounting.

That is definitely an oversimplification, however, the Super Bowl showed there is more to winning it all then having that electric, young quarterback, which has been the method teams have been chasing. The Buccaneers had a presumed need at quarterback in the last two seasons yet passed on adding a rookie quarterback. The Bucs passed on Daniel Jones and Jordan Love for Devin White and Tristan Wirfs, two players with huge impacts in this Super Bowl season.

Tom Brady’s success will unlikely be matched, but it solidifies some questions and concerns regarding how long a quarterback can be effective for. Previously, few quarterbacks were able to continue playing effectively past 35. Brady at 43 shattered that belief thanks, in part, due to his ability to remain healthy. Ben Roethlisberger looks absolutely done entering his age-39 season, but he has dealt with injuries every season for the last few years. Drew Brees is expected to retire at 42 after a few injury-plagued seasons zapped whatever remained of his effectiveness. Philip Rivers is wrapping it up at 39 after a few injuries took their toll.

Matt Ryan has remained remarkably healthy entering his age-36 season. After seeing these other players push near and past 40, there is no reason to think Ryan can’t do the same if he remains healthy. Terry Fontenot, Atlanta’s new general manager, is familiar with the concept of building around an older quarterback. The Saints could have replaced Brees years back. Instead, they built up a stout defense and run game, adjusted the offense to what Brees could still do effectively, and they have made the playoffs consistently down that stretch.

Fans, pundits, and the new Falcons braintrust have certainly been wrestling with what to do with that 4th overall pick. The pick could be another Watson or Herbert type. If the Falcons miss on that in 2020, they could be stuck without the draft position to nab a cheap quarterback of the future for some time. However, it is far from clear that Ryan only has a few more seasons of effectiveness. Further, Ryan has been far from the biggest problem. Adding another quarterback will not fix the run game or the lack of pass rush. Ryan may get some blame for blown leads but the team has been unable to control the clock or disrupt quarterbacks in come-back mode. There was a pretty clear difference between the Chiefs coming back against the Falcons compared to the Buccaneers.

It may be difficult to look at Ryan’s injury history, what other quarterbacks have done pushing into their 40s, how other teams have built around their quarterback, and definitively say the Falcons should definitely take a quarterback with that top pick, especially when that player is virtually guaranteed not to start games this year so long as Ryan is healthy.

This will be an era-defining draft for Arthur Smith and Fontenot. It would be a fair assumption to think that era would be kicked off with a new quarterback. It should make more sense to punt on quarterback and build up Ryan’s supporting cast.

 

 

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Lol the media is hilarious. They couldn’t wait to draft a QB at #4 to replace an aging Qb with mobile Qbs. Now, the tune has changed. This is worse than mood swings of teens going through pub. 

It really hasn't been for a decade, this was a very quick turnaround with Bowles and Arians. People love to overthink it, but football comes down to the trenches and coaching.  The Bucs dominated

Counterpoint: actually this team and this fanbase are poisoned with the expectation that Ryan will surpass the greatest quarterbacks of his generation and likely all time once he's given the proper ge

Counterpoint: actually this team and this fanbase are poisoned with the expectation that Ryan will surpass the greatest quarterbacks of his generation and likely all time once he's given the proper genius playcaller to work with and surrounded with as much talent as a team can feasibly put around a quarterback.

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I've spoken about this 100 times so I won't go in depth.

 

Matt needs to stop being an extension of the coach and make the coach an extension of him. Yes we can win with Matt Ryan but this has always been a team game; Get the surrounding pieces so we won't need Matt to perform at MVP level to win. Tom Brady had some piss poor performances this season but when they gave him the keys he made sure he won when it mattered.

 

That is all.

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Yes you can win with an old pocket passer QB but the question is how do you get there? The glaring difference between Tampa and Atlanta is Tampa has been rebuilding for a decade and Atlanta has been reloading. Tampa had accumulated a ton of high draft picks and used many of them well, in addition to spending wisely with mid round picks. They have no bad contracts. Atlanta has been perpetually drafting around #15 overall or later and frequently trading mid round picks to move up from the end of the 1st round. They don't nearly have the mid round depth the Bucs do. Additionally, because every offseason is the year they're going to get over the hump, the cap is saddled with bad contracts and restructures. Atlanta is much closer to the New England team Brady just left than Tampa. 

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2 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

Yes you can win with an old pocket passer QB but the question is how do you get there? The glaring difference between Tampa and Atlanta is Tampa has been rebuilding for a decade and Atlanta has been reloading. Tampa had accumulated a ton of high draft picks and used many of them well, in addition to spending wisely with mid round picks. They have no bad contracts. Atlanta has been perpetually drafting around #15 overall or later and frequently trading mid round picks to move up from the end of the 1st round. They don't nearly have the mid round depth the Bucs do. Additionally, because every offseason is the year they're going to get over the hump, the cap is saddled with bad contracts and restructures. Atlanta is much closer to the New England team Brady just left than Tampa. 

Tampas key pieces were acquired after Arians showed up or from last 2-3 years. Falcons have core pieces, would TF go out and get play makers or be happy like TD to get some washed up players with knee problems. 

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6 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

Yes you can win with an old pocket passer QB but the question is how do you get there? The glaring difference between Tampa and Atlanta is Tampa has been rebuilding for a decade and Atlanta has been reloading. Tampa had accumulated a ton of high draft picks and used many of them well, in addition to spending wisely with mid round picks. They have no bad contracts. Atlanta has been perpetually drafting around #15 overall or later and frequently trading mid round picks to move up from the end of the 1st round. They don't nearly have the mid round depth the Bucs do. Additionally, because every offseason is the year they're going to get over the hump, the cap is saddled with bad contracts and restructures. Atlanta is much closer to the New England team Brady just left than Tampa. 

It really hasn't been for a decade, this was a very quick turnaround with Bowles and Arians.

People love to overthink it, but football comes down to the trenches and coaching.  The Bucs dominated both lines.  Their defense is legit and their run game closed the game out.  The formula hasn't changed as much as the media and fans want to claim it has.

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Sure Ryan can be productive. That's really not the issue.

It's the ability of the organization to put a complete team around him.

Brady left an organization that could not and decided to go to an organization that could. Peyton Manning did the same thing... well he didn't really decide to leave but when he left he went to a team with a more balanced roster where he had a lower cap hit that didn't hamstring the team for years.

Here's what the issue is. As a franchise QB stays with an organization they get paid more and more and it impacts the team's ability to build a solid team around them because they want to surround them with weapons and tend to skew towards offense. The QB cap hits go up and up and creates less room to spend in other places. Oddly enough New England was a bit of an exception.

Now we're in a position where Ryan's cap hit is more than it ever was and it's going to impact the organization's ability to build a team around him.

Can they do it? Sure but we're basically hoping they have the best draft they've ever had.

Here's a good idea of where the Falcons are going to be next season as of now compared to where the Bucs were.

It takes 8 players on the Bucs roster to eat up 50% of the cap space

4 players on the Falcons will eat up 50% of the cap space next year. 5 players and it's 60%.

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11 minutes ago, athell said:

It really hasn't been for a decade, this was a very quick turnaround with Bowles and Arians.

People love to overthink it, but football comes down to the trenches and coaching.  The Bucs dominated both lines.  Their defense is legit and their run game closed the game out.  The formula hasn't changed as much as the media and fans want to claim it has.

It really has not 

Fundamentals and execution are what win football games.

I mean an offensive system/scheme that people here have been saying is "antiquated"  just won the Superbowl....and did it in pretty impressive fashion.

 

 

 

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47 minutes ago, Macintez said:

I've spoken about this 100 times so I won't go in depth.

 

Matt needs to stop being an extension of the coach and make the coach an extension of him. Yes we can win with Matt Ryan but this has always been a team game; Get the surrounding pieces so we won't need Matt to perform at MVP level to win. Tom Brady had some piss poor performances this season but when they gave him the keys he made sure he won when it mattered.

 

That is all.

I would be interested to see how well Tom Brady would do with Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator. He might make Dirk Koetter look like a genius but who knows.

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19 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

Sure Ryan can be productive. That's really not the issue.

It's the ability of the organization to put a complete team around him.

Brady left an organization that could not and decided to go to an organization that could. Peyton Manning did the same thing... well he didn't really decide to leave but when he left he went to a team with a more balanced roster where he had a lower cap hit that didn't hamstring the team for years.

Here's what the issue is. As a franchise QB stays with an organization they get paid more and more and it impacts the team's ability to build a solid team around them because they want to surround them with weapons and tend to skew towards offense. The QB cap hits go up and up and creates less room to spend in other places. Oddly enough New England was a bit of an exception.

Now we're in a position where Ryan's cap hit is more than it ever was and it's going to impact the organization's ability to build a team around him.

Can they do it? Sure but we're basically hoping they have the best draft they've ever had.

Here's a good idea of where the Falcons are going to be next season as of now compared to where the Bucs were.

It takes 8 players on the Bucs roster to eat up 50% of the cap space

4 players on the Falcons will eat up 50% of the cap space next year. 5 players and it's 60%.

I think that Takk McKinley, Todd Gurley, and Vic Beasley being busts have more to do with our problems than our expensive 4.

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16 minutes ago, falconsd56 said:

It really has not 

Fundamentals and execution are what win football games.

I mean an offensive system/scheme that people here have been saying is "antiquated"  just won the Superbowl....and did it in pretty impressive fashion.

 

 

 

Protect the QB

Get after the opposing QB

Run the ball

Let the rest take care of itself.  People way overthink this.

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27 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

Sure Ryan can be productive. That's really not the issue.

It's the ability of the organization to put a complete team around him.

Brady left an organization that could not and decided to go to an organization that could. Peyton Manning did the same thing... well he didn't really decide to leave but when he left he went to a team with a more balanced roster where he had a lower cap hit that didn't hamstring the team for years.

Here's what the issue is. As a franchise QB stays with an organization they get paid more and more and it impacts the team's ability to build a solid team around them because they want to surround them with weapons and tend to skew towards offense. The QB cap hits go up and up and creates less room to spend in other places. Oddly enough New England was a bit of an exception.

Now we're in a position where Ryan's cap hit is more than it ever was and it's going to impact the organization's ability to build a team around him.

Can they do it? Sure but we're basically hoping they have the best draft they've ever had.

Here's a good idea of where the Falcons are going to be next season as of now compared to where the Bucs were.

It takes 8 players on the Bucs roster to eat up 50% of the cap space

4 players on the Falcons will eat up 50% of the cap space next year. 5 players and it's 60%.

Falcons need to stop worrying about Cap. Put a plan on what's needed, then figure out how to make it happen and manipulate the cap. TD sucked because he was too worried about cap and wasted money on cheaper washed up players. 

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45 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Tampas key pieces were acquired after Arians showed up or from last 2-3 years. Falcons have core pieces, would TF go out and get play makers or be happy like TD to get some washed up players with knee problems. 

TD spent our cap resources on retaining our own guys.  I don’t understand why ou keep saying TD was lazy in FA.  We couldn’t be aggressive in FA cause we locked up Ryan, Julio, Grady, Matthew’s, Debo, Freeman, Trufant, Rico and signing Neal & Vic to 5th year extensions.  You can’t simply sign every player you want

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43 minutes ago, athell said:

It really hasn't been for a decade, this was a very quick turnaround with Bowles and Arians.

People love to overthink it, but football comes down to the trenches and coaching.  The Bucs dominated both lines.  Their defense is legit and their run game closed the game out.  The formula hasn't changed as much as the media and fans want to claim it has.

You don't need a decade in NFL if you have the core, good coaching and a reload of few players. Look at what Mcvay did in LA. He added few pieces and then they flipped from one of the worst teams in NFL to one of the best. Not very different than what ML did by adding the defensive pass rushers in GB and bringing in other players. GB never really had running game for over a decade, ML brought in the run game and Rodgers in his second year had one of his best career year.

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34 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

Sure Ryan can be productive. That's really not the issue.

It's the ability of the organization to put a complete team around him.

Brady left an organization that could not and decided to go to an organization that could. Peyton Manning did the same thing... well he didn't really decide to leave but when he left he went to a team with a more balanced roster where he had a lower cap hit that didn't hamstring the team for years.

Here's what the issue is. As a franchise QB stays with an organization they get paid more and more and it impacts the team's ability to build a solid team around them because they want to surround them with weapons and tend to skew towards offense. The QB cap hits go up and up and creates less room to spend in other places. Oddly enough New England was a bit of an exception.

Now we're in a position where Ryan's cap hit is more than it ever was and it's going to impact the organization's ability to build a team around him.

Can they do it? Sure but we're basically hoping they have the best draft they've ever had.

Here's a good idea of where the Falcons are going to be next season as of now compared to where the Bucs were.

It takes 8 players on the Bucs roster to eat up 50% of the cap space

4 players on the Falcons will eat up 50% of the cap space next year. 5 players and it's 60%.

Great post.  Most will ignore it unfortunately

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4 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

TD spent our cap resources on retaining our own guys.  I don’t understand why ou keep saying TD was lazy in FA.  We couldn’t be aggressive in FA cause we locked up Ryan, Julio, Grady, Matthew’s, Debo, Freeman, Trufant, Rico and signing Neal & Vic to 5th year extensions.  You can’t simply sign every player you want

I didn't say lazy, TD was too conservative except for may be 2008, 2012 and 2016. TDs philosophy was backwards, I have so much money, and let me go find some one who fits in that cap. If anything, Signing those own players with lower cap hit in initial years should have made him more aggressive to get outside players. Ryan, Julio, Mathews, Grady and Debo had very minimal hits till this year. Yet TD was wasting money on players like Brown, Carptenter, Ty, Vic Beasley and so on.. 

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17 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Falcons need to stop worrying about Cap. Put a plan on what's needed, then figure out how to make it happen and manipulate the cap. TD sucked because he was too worried about cap and wasted money on cheaper washed up players. 

 

9 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

I didn't say lazy, TD was too conservative except for may be 2008, 2012 and 2016. TDs philosophy was backwards, I have so much money, and let me go find some one who fits in that cap. If anything, Signing those players with lower cap hit in initial years should have made him more aggressive to get outside players. Ryan, Julio, Mathews, Grady and Debo had very minimal hits till this year. Yet TD was wasting money on players like Brown, Carptenter, Ty, Vic Beasley and so on.. 

He signed mid-level free agents because we tried to keep everyone, so he didn't have the cap space to chase bigger names unless he restructured our biggest contracts, and he couldn't find enough adequate starters in the draft to paper over holes in the roster. It's impossible to manage the cap in the NFL and build a contender unless you have a Mahomes or Josh Allen or you draft defense better than Dimitroff ever did. Some teams make it look easy, but it really isn't, certainly not as easy as just ignoring the cap for a season and going all-in on a team that was 4-12 with two wins against teams missing their starting cornerbacks.

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Let me settle this quickly. Matt is not and will never be Tom Brady! For the record I have rooted against and disliked Brady his whole career! But I have to concede that NO other QB aging or otherwise has done what he has done, or can do what he still can do. If Matt gets it done then I will be a happy fan. But I think the organization will be foolish to think they can follow the Brady blueprint. See how next yr goes with Matt and adjust accordingly to the good or bad. 

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Just now, Serge said:

 

He signed mid-level free agents because we tried to keep everyone, so he didn't have the cap space to chase bigger names unless he restructured, and he couldn't find enough adequate starters in the draft to paper holes in the roster. It's impossible to manage the cap in the NFL and build a contender unless you have a Mahomes or Josh Allen or you draft defense better than Dimitroff ever did. Some teams make it look easy, but it really isn't, certainly not as easy as just ignoring the cap for a season and going all-in on a team that was 4-12 with two wins against teams missing their starting cornerbacks.

He  could have made aggressive deals. Ryan's cap hit last 3 years was minimal, so was Debo, Grady and Mathews. TD except few years always chased the measurables or hoping he found diamond in the rough. How did that top 5 DL cap hit in the NFL work out in 2019. Or paying backups Ty, Carpenter, Brown big money. GB, Rams, SEA and others have been in playoffs and contenders with no rookie QB contract. They make bold moves either in trade or FA. All TD did was sign washed up players or backups. 

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7 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

He  could have made aggressive deals. Ryan's cap hit last 3 years was minimal, so was Debo, Grady and Mathews. TD except few years always chased the measurables or hoping he found diamond in the rough. How did that top 5 DL cap hit in the NFL work out in 2019. Or paying backups Ty, Carpenter, Brown big money. GB, Rams, SEA and others have been in playoffs and contenders with no rookie QB contract. They make bold moves either in trade or FA. All TD did was sign washed up players or backups. 

Because for the most part he couldn't draft worth a **** after 2016. That's what I'm saying; it can be done, but you need to be doing incredibly well at building the defense, and Dimitroff was the opposite, hence the wildly expensive defensive line that sucked **** for the most part.

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