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The Value of The WR Position


FalconsIn2012
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It’s really been interesting to watch the rise of the wide receiver value over the past few years.  PFF recently released an WAR analysis of each position in football.  The results were clear: outside of QB, the WR position has the most direct impact on wins & losses.  This is also reflected in WR having the 3rd highest franchise tag number

With that said, this is an incredibly deep and talented draft for QB’s & Wr’s.  I’ve made my opinion on QB clear: if the evaluations in house all agree QB X is a franchise QB, you draft the QB.   But if we drafted Micah Parsons in the 1st, I honestly would take a long look at WR or TE in the 2nd round.  Most of the great teams over the past few years have a roster that reflects the emphasis on WR.  Both teams in this years SB have 5 players with 450 or more yards receiving.  We need one more playmaker at either WR or TE. 
 

So who are some players you guys like in the 2nd or 3rd to fill that need.  Guys I’d love in the 2nd round are Pat Freiermuth at TE, Randall Moore WR at Perdue Rashod Bateman WR for Minn...and my favorite is Terrace Marshall Jr....on a side note, the 2019 LSU Wr Corp was possibly the GOAT

A sleeper TE in the 5th is BYU’s Matt Bushman.  He misses the entire year due to injury so is being overlooked

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Julio clear cut top 5 WR in the NFL and arguably #1

Ridley a WR1 on half the teams in the NFL if we're being conservative

Gage developing well and appears to be just as capable as Sanu here who was a good #2 in his own right

Not opposed to a WR/TE if the value is right this draft (esp TE), like, Eskridge or Brevin Jordan Rd 3 would be great. Just disagree with framing it as a need

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I suspect some names we'll consider in the second and third rounds are Pat Freiermuth, Brevin Jordan, and Jake Ferguson. An early round TE feels like a decent possibility.

A swing prospect I like for us on day three, maybe even the third round, is Demetric Felton. He's a RB who caught 97 passes for UCLA over the past three years. They had him lined up at WR at the Senior Bowl, and he was wrecking DBs. He's a day one weapon. We're sorely lacking on RBs who can catch the ball. It's a terrific fit.

 

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2 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

It’s really been interesting to watch the rise of the wide receiver value over the past few years.  PFF recently released an WAR analysis of each position in football.  The results were clear: outside of QB, the WR position has the most direct impact on wins & losses.  This is also reflected in WR having the 3rd highest franchise tag number

With that said, this is an incredibly deep and talented draft for QB’s & Wr’s.  I’ve made my opinion on QB clear: if the evaluations in house all agree QB X is a franchise QB, you draft the QB.   But if we drafted Micah Parsons in the 1st, I honestly would take a long look at WR or TE in the 2nd round.  Most of the great teams over the past few years have a roster that reflects the emphasis on WR.  Both teams in this years SB have 5 players with 450 or more yards receiving.  We need one more playmaker at either WR or TE. 
 

So who are some players you guys like in the 2nd or 3rd to fill that need.  Guys I’d love in the 2nd round are Pat Freiermuth at TE, Randall Moore WR at Perdue Rashod Bateman WR for Minn...and my favorite is Terrace Marshall Jr....on a side note, the 2019 LSU Wr Corp was possibly the GOAT

A sleeper TE in the 5th is BYU’s Matt Bushman.  He misses the entire year due to injury so is being overlooked

We've had arguably the best WR in the league over the last decade. No Lombardi. 18-30 in the last three years. 

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3 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

 Both teams in this years SB have 5 players with 450 or more yards receiving.  We need one more playmaker at either WR or TE. 
 

I disagree with the value of a WR being that important. 

Scotty Miller and Antonio Brown were both drafted in the 6th round 

Demarcus Robinson was a 4th round pick

I see no need to spend an early pick on a WR. If you want to take a guy in a mid-late round then sure that's fine. Maybe a dude falls or is someone you are high on, but there's zero need to spend an early pick on another WR. And I feel the same for a TE. There is enough mouths to feed at both spots (I still like Graham a lot as a receiving threat). 

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Last year the 49ers made the super bowl with a tight end as their leading receiver. The year before new england did the same. The year before that the eagles made it without a 1000 yard receiver and the pats leading receiver had just barely 1k yards. If this isn't some recency bias junk I don't know what is.

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5 hours ago, jidady said:

I suspect some names we'll consider in the second and third rounds are Pat Freiermuth, Brevin Jordan, and Jake Ferguson. An early round TE feels like a decent possibility.

A swing prospect I like for us on day three, maybe even the third round, is Demetric Felton. He's a RB who caught 97 passes for UCLA over the past three years. They had him lined up at WR at the Senior Bowl, and he was wrecking DBs. He's a day one weapon. We're sorely lacking on RBs who can catch the ball. It's a terrific fit.

 

Had this guy in my mock, Love his versatility as a RB/WR/Returner. I think a good comp for him would be Antonio Gibson in Washington. He brings a lot of unique ability to any offense. 

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1 minute ago, celtiksage said:

He had quite a bit of film that I saw. Probably top 5 TE for sure. I was surprised he's going to risk it.

COVID left many feeling like they came up short.  A lot if these players had truncated seasons and probably feel unfulfilled.  You're right though, could cost you money by doing it....

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I find it more than a little dubious to rank WRs so high. Mainly because they rely on the QB to be any good. Yes, it can be a symbiotic relationship, but if you put Julio on the Jets all these years, does anyone really believe he's mentioned as a HOFer? 

On the other hand, I could put any of the top ten QBs over the last decade on the Jets and they'd still be the same guys, by and large. Great WRs usually spring from having a great QB throwing to them, not the other way around. 

Having said that, I could see them taking a day 3 TE, if they don't just go get a couple on the open market. It's not a high dollar position to fill. From a starter perspective, I like Double H, so I'll roll with him as the primary passing game target. 

As for WR generally, you can always use some good hands. Personally, I think they need to look for a compact guy who can cut in tight spaces and has great hands. Preferably one who is also a skilled KR/PR.  Why has that been so hard for this team to address??? I mean ****. Hair Gel never once scouted a draft pick with the idea that he would be the primary return guy.

 

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7 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Julio clear cut top 5 WR in the NFL and arguably #1

Ridley a WR1 on half the teams in the NFL if we're being conservative

Gage developing well and appears to be just as capable as Sanu here who was a good #2 in his own right

Not opposed to a WR/TE if the value is right this draft (esp TE), like, Eskridge or Brevin Jordan Rd 3 would be great. Just disagree with framing it as a need

This^^^

If it's there, then it's there but I'm certainly not of the mindset of going in thinking we HAVE to pick a WR or TE. We 100% have plenty we can work with and they won't hinder us from getting to a SB.

Matter of fact, Olimade is developing quite nicely and is closer to Mecole Hardman than we think. Mecole is just in a better offense for his skill set.

Put Olimade in KC offense and he might actually have better stats than Mecole.

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7 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Julio clear cut top 5 WR in the NFL and arguably #1

Ridley a WR1 on half the teams in the NFL if we're being conservative

Gage developing well and appears to be just as capable as Sanu here who was a good #2 in his own right

Not opposed to a WR/TE if the value is right this draft (esp TE), like, Eskridge or Brevin Jordan Rd 3 would be great. Just disagree with framing it as a need

Gage is developing really nicely and you could see the trust Ryan had in him as the season went on but still think we're missing that Sanu roll in the offense. Ryan lost both of his safety blankets — third down guys in Hooper and Sanu. So I would love to bring in another sure handed - big bodied WR who shows out on third downs. I had high hopes for Treadwell early in the year and thought he did a nice job to close out the year but just not reliable enough.

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I think WR is very important, but it usually seems that it's more important to have good WR 2,3, 4 TE RB than one elite player.

You need every single one of your guys to be able to beat man coverage and catch the ball.  And you need 5 of those guys lined up nearly every play.

Being even better than that is great...but you need at least that so you can scheme tons of mismatches and put systems in place to get people 1 on 1.  That only works if they can beat that 1 on 1.

Zone beaters are a different scenario, but the same holds...you need quality throughout (and hopefully 1 top guy) more than you need 2 aces.

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3 hours ago, thanat0s said:

I find it more than a little dubious to rank WRs so high. Mainly because they rely on the QB to be any good. Yes, it can be a symbiotic relationship, but if you put Julio on the Jets all these years, does anyone really believe he's mentioned as a HOFer? 

On the other hand, I could put any of the top ten QBs over the last decade on the Jets and they'd still be the same guys, by and large. Great WRs usually spring from having a great QB throwing to them, not the other way around. 

Having said that, I could see them taking a day 3 TE, if they don't just go get a couple on the open market. It's not a high dollar position to fill. From a starter perspective, I like Double H, so I'll roll with him as the primary passing game target. 

As for WR generally, you can always use some good hands. Personally, I think they need to look for a compact guy who can cut in tight spaces and has great hands. Preferably one who is also a skilled KR/PR.  Why has that been so hard for this team to address??? I mean ****. Hair Gel never once scouted a draft pick with the idea that he would be the primary return guy.

 

I disagree. Heck, if you put Mahomes on the Jets with Gase to start his career, he more than likely busts. Wilson probably never even gets a chance. Allen never develops. Brady who is most people’s GOAT (until Mahomes likely eventually takes that title) certainly doesn’t even happen. I think QBs are honestly much more reliant on a system than WRs are. You see more good WRs on bad offenses and with bad QBs than you do QBs that are paired with bad coaches and bad weapons. 

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17 minutes ago, Atlantafan21 said:

I disagree. Heck, if you put Mahomes on the Jets with Gase to start his career, he more than likely busts. Wilson probably never even gets a chance. Allen never develops. Brady who is most people’s GOAT (until Mahomes likely eventually takes that title) certainly doesn’t even happen. I think QBs are honestly much more reliant on a system than WRs are. You see more good WRs on bad offenses and with bad QBs than you do QBs that are paired with bad coaches and bad weapons. 

So, you're saying Rodgers, Ryan, Brees, or Wilson (just to name the prominent non-Brady/Manning QBs at the top of the rankings the last decade) would likely be busts if they played in NY?


The odds that 1 of them would be a bust are so miniscule that they're hardly worth mentioning. One can't say the team would win, but those guys would still have thrown up their averages regardless. I'd bet the farm on it. 

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Just now, thanat0s said:

So, you're saying Rodgers, Ryan, Brees, or Wilson (just to name the prominent non-Brady/Manning QBs at the top of the rankings the last decade) would likely be busts if they played in NY?


The odds that 1 of them would be a bust are so miniscule that they're hardly worth mentioning. One can't say the team would win, but those guys would still have thrown up their averages regardless. I'd bet the farm on it. 

I stated it in my other post, but Wilson wouldn’t be the player he is today. He was shielded early on by the LOB and one of the best run games in the league. Brees needed Payton to really hit his stride. We know what Brees was before the Payton union, and he was nowhere near as good as the New Orleans Brees. Rodgers I think is the only one that potentially stays relatively the same, albeit not quite at the same level as we’ve come to know, but even then he sat as an understudy for Favre for a number of years. Ryan probably would be solid, but also not at the level he’s been on the Falcons. Most of the best QBs have gotten to where they are because of landing in ideal situations. 
 

Rather than looking at the best, I’ll switch to some QBs that haven’t shaken out as expected. Rosen got into a terrible situation in Arizona, which was arguably the worst roster that year including having a placeholder HC. He might never even get a legit chance to start in the league. Darnold has had nothing to work with in New York and has had Gase as his HC his entire career. It’s split on whether or not one thinks he is still fixable. Trubisky has had a really good defense, but really only one good WR his career so far in addition to a mostly inefficient run game and bad o-line. I don’t think Trubisky would ever be a particularly good QB, but he could certainly be more competent with a better offensive mind than Nagy. Trubisky and A-Rob actually also help demonstrate my point on good WRs not necessarily needing a good QB. The only recent bust I don’t think would have changed given the situation is Haskins, but that’s because Haskins himself is the issue in terms of how he conducts himself. 

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6 hours ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Had this guy in my mock, Love his versatility as a RB/WR/Returner. I think a good comp for him would be Antonio Gibson in Washington. He brings a lot of unique ability to any offense. 

Yeah, he's had a couple of Play of the Day type kick returns. He's the tiny version of Cordarrelle Patterson. People just can't seem to tackle him in the open field.

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