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Quick Trade down Mock 1.0: "The Najee Draft"


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Traded down with IND to come up for Wilson, picked up 1st and 2nd next year. This is a VERY needs-based BPA draft. At 68 there were various players available but Moses could play ILB (or WLB) in a 3-4 and SLB in a 4-3 and be a chess piece with some blitzing and coverage. There were also some decent safeties available at 68. Holland was BPA at #54 and Twyman at #135. I took Najee over Zaven Collins because I think he'll have a bigger impact. Philips was BPA at EDGE in the 2nd and I liked his value better than a S here (Moehrig was already gone).

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Traded down with IND to come up for Wilson, picked up 1st and 2nd next year. This is a VERY needs-based BPA draft. At 68 there were various players available but Moses could play ILB (or WLB) in a 3-4

Running Back is generally the last position you want to put high capital in when making a run for a SuperBowl.   While the Falcons need a RB and Najee is obviously a great one - not really a fan of th

Anything that has Najee Harris I’m in for. Don’t want him at 4. But moving down, accumulating picks and getting him is my plan

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Running Back is generally the last position you want to put high capital in when making a run for a SuperBowl.   While the Falcons need a RB and Najee is obviously a great one - not really a fan of the strategy to tailor the whole draft strategy with making Najee the marquee player.   RBs have the shortest shelf life of all the starting positions - then you get to the end of the rookie contract and if said RB has played well and you give him the 2nd contract you grow to regret it most times - just look at Falcons(Freeman) and Rams(Gurley).

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6 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Running Back is generally the last position you want to put high capital in when making a run for a SuperBowl.   While the Falcons need a RB and Najee is obviously a great one - not really a fan of the strategy to tailor the whole draft strategy with making Najee the marquee player.   RBs have the shortest shelf life of all the starting positions - then you get to the end of the rookie contract and if said RB has played well and you give him the 2nd contract you grow to regret it most times - just look at Falcons(Freeman) and Rams(Gurley).

So you weren't a fan of the Ricky Williams draft by Ditka ...... :troll:

I agree, I would have never given Freeman a 2nd contract. As a matter of fact I would cycle RB's through by drafting 1 every year.

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1 hour ago, rcky_mtn_falcon said:

So you weren't a fan of the Ricky Williams draft by Ditka ...... :troll:

I agree, I would have never given Freeman a 2nd contract. As a matter of fact I would cycle RB's through by drafting 1 every year.

RBs decay quickly.  Its not a bad idea to go for volume.  The essence of acquiring draft capital.  Its how you reload prior to the big salaries hit.  

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13 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Running Back is generally the last position you want to put high capital in when making a run for a SuperBowl.   While the Falcons need a RB and Najee is obviously a great one - not really a fan of the strategy to tailor the whole draft strategy with making Najee the marquee player.   RBs have the shortest shelf life of all the starting positions - then you get to the end of the rookie contract and if said RB has played well and you give him the 2nd contract you grow to regret it most times - just look at Falcons(Freeman) and Rams(Gurley).

My thinking is that the 5th year option gives us the last year of his "life span" for cheaper than a huge RB deal is, so we could let him go after Year 5.

What I really wanted to do was trade down, acquire picks in THIS draft and draft Z. Collins, Rousseau or Surtain in the middle of the round, then trade back into the 1st for Najee in the 20-30 range specifically with that 5th year option rationale but he kept getting drafted before I could get a 2nd trade so I basically just pushed EDGE back into the 2nd instead.

I think that extra year is worth taking him late in the first.

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24 minutes ago, Cheyakita said:

Would set us up nice for this season and next to move up for a QB if we need to. I would probably look at Lindstroms brother at pick 166 or other OL depth but a good mock.

The two firsts, two seconds next year gives us tons of ammo to load up and make a big move for a QB or REALLY restock the trenches. We also could use that capital to acquire picks one year later to make a play at someone like DJ Uigealelei or whoever.

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6 minutes ago, rcky_mtn_falcon said:

So you weren't a fan of the Ricky Williams draft by Ditka ...... :troll:

I agree, I would have never given Freeman a 2nd contract. As a matter of fact I would cycle RB's through by drafting 1 every year.

no to Ditka! :D

think about it - the most valuable asset an NFL team has each offseason that is a new asset is their 1st round draft pick.    If you aren't willing - or - deem it risky to give a running back a 2nd contract - then why on earth would you draft one in the 1st round?

While I love RBs and God knows the Falcons need to upgrade the position - Just wouldn't dream of taking a RB in 1st round unless the rest of my team was complete.    I would look in 3rd/4th round - and maybe even 2nd round if the right one fell - but don't believe Falcons should give these RBs a 2nd large contract.

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36 minutes ago, ATLFalcon36 said:

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Traded down with IND to come up for Wilson, picked up 1st and 2nd next year. This is a VERY needs-based BPA draft. At 68 there were various players available but Moses could play ILB (or WLB) in a 3-4 and SLB in a 4-3 and be a chess piece with some blitzing and coverage. There were also some decent safeties available at 68. Holland was BPA at #54 and Twyman at #135. I took Najee over Zaven Collins because I think he'll have a bigger impact. Philips was BPA at EDGE in the 2nd and I liked his value better than a S here (Moehrig was already gone).

I do enjoy that PFN draft simulator bro!  It's amazing the bounty of talent available when one drops down near the 20's... 

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8 minutes ago, ATLFalcon36 said:

My thinking is that the 5th year option gives us the last year of his "life span" for cheaper than a huge RB deal is, so we could let him go after Year 5.

What I really wanted to do was trade down, acquire picks in THIS draft and draft Z. Collins, Rousseau or Surtain in the middle of the round, then trade back into the 1st for Najee in the 20-30 range specifically with that 5th year option rationale but he kept getting drafted before I could get a 2nd trade so I basically just pushed EDGE back into the 2nd instead.

I think that extra year is worth taking him late in the first.

disagree.   I believe you should just select RBs often - as in - every 3 years you are drafting a RB - 2nd-4th rounders is generally where you get value - sometimes you luck up and can get one later than that or UDFA.

just a bad use of draft capital in my opinion.   Fairly certain ol Jerry Jones wishes now he wouldn't have given Ezekiel Elliott his money as well while the price tag on Dak keeps going higher and higher and higher.

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If we were trading down to the later half of the first round, I'd much rather take two offensive linemen with our first two picks and wait a year to try to fix our edge situation through the draft. There's enough running backs in this draft that we'll be better than last year just taking a guy with the extra 3rd-4th round pick we ought to have also gotten in this trade.

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1 hour ago, ATLFalcon36 said:

image.png.7f9a208a90ad8d0a65747c29ec10a5a1.png

Traded down with IND to come up for Wilson, picked up 1st and 2nd next year. This is a VERY needs-based BPA draft. At 68 there were various players available but Moses could play ILB (or WLB) in a 3-4 and SLB in a 4-3 and be a chess piece with some blitzing and coverage. There were also some decent safeties available at 68. Holland was BPA at #54 and Twyman at #135. I took Najee over Zaven Collins because I think he'll have a bigger impact. Philips was BPA at EDGE in the 2nd and I liked his value better than a S here (Moehrig was already gone).

If you trade down to make Najee the focal point of this years draft, how many more wins do you gain?  Just asking does that equate 2,4 or 6 more wins from this year?  No right/wrong answer just trying to get a feel for the value placed on a RB in here.

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24 minutes ago, Someday soon said:

If you trade down to make Najee the focal point of this years draft, how many more wins do you gain?  Just asking does that equate 2,4 or 6 more wins from this year?  No right/wrong answer just trying to get a feel for the value placed on a RB in here.

That's an interesting perspective, almost like WAR in baseball. I think he would have 8-12 TD's (similar to Gurley) but have a much higher YPA and overall yardage. I think he'd get 1000-1300 yards which presumably lead to more redzone attempts. I'd think he'd have 200-400 receiving yards and 2-5 receiving TD's as well so let's say 1500-1700 all-purpose yards and 10-17 total TD's or 60-102 total points or 3.75 - 6.375 points per game. 

In 2020 we lost the following games by less than 4 points:

  • Lions
  • Chargers
  • Chiefs
  • Cowboys

In 2020 we lost the following games by less than 6 points:

  • Buccs (game 1)
  • Saints (game 2)

Now Gurley last year accounted for 54 points or 3.375 points per game. If you take the difference off of Najee's range that's an additional 0.375 - 3 points a game. If you're at the top of the estimation range for direct production we would have tied/gone to OT in all of the games in the first category, so at the bottom end 2 more wins at the top 4 more wins.

This also doesn't account for an increase in passing TD's by a RB running into the RZ and increased RZ chances so it could be higher.

 

On the flip-side if we have a defender let's say a CB like Surtain that gets 2-5 INTs or a DE that gets 5-8 sacks, even if we equated those to TD's or points 1:1 that's still less PPG difference than Najee Harris would bring. 

 

Now this is purely made up projections but basically if Najee surpassed a 8 total TD season he'd provide more value in terms of points/possible "more wins". Let's also remember that boneheaded Gurley decisions essentially cost us 2 games, so Najee just NOT doing that accounts for two on his own.

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