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After The Trade, Falcons Sitting Pretty? - The Falcoholic


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The full article is on the Falcoholic website.   This particular part is Falcons related, so....here 'tis.   

 

The Falcons: Sitting pretty

Atlanta’s options are the same as they were a couple of days ago, but their position also got stronger.

Matt Ryan is unlikely to be moved, but it’s clear the Falcons can and would ask for multiple first round picks for him. Ryan is older than Matthew Stafford but is also a former NFL MVP who is aging pretty gracefully, and the idea that the Falcons would ship him out for a future second round pick or some nonsense should be put to bed after seeing this deal. If a team wants to blow Atlanta away and make them consider eating their big dead cap hit to move him, it’s clear what they’ll have to give up, and it’s quite a bit.

In the much likelier case that the Falcons keep him, teams are now just a little bit more likely to blow them away with an offer for the #4 pick. Stafford and Goff were both potential trade targets and are now both off the market, and it’s not clear whether any other veteran quarterbacks worth making a move for are actually on the block. That leaves teams outside of the top 5 picks starting down the prospect of not being able to get one of the top draft-eligible quarterbacks, and if you’re a Broncos team not sold on Drew Lock or a 49ers team getting antsy about Jimmy G, that’s an unfortunate position to be in.

If Atlanta wants to move down, then, and Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones are on the board at #4, they shouldn’t lack for suitors who know they won’t be able to get away with a miserly offer to move up 5 or 10 picks. The Falcons can do with those offers what they will, but they’re as well-positioned to trade down and secure a haul as they’ve been in many, many years.

 

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The full article is on the Falcoholic website.   This particular part is Falcons related, so....here 'tis.      The Falcons: Sitting pretty Atlanta’s options are the same a

Man we better take them to the bank if we move down and not move just for the sake of moving

Falcons have to eat 40 M cap hit by trading Ryan. They aren’t gonna take any other contracts on top of that. 2021 is not the year to trade Ryan. Just trade down and get picks to build a team. When you

Lions got that big of a haul because the Rams HAD to trade Goff as cutting him was impossible due to the dead money they would’ve had to eat. They paid the Lions extra in draft picks to take him. We won’t get that much for Ryan unless we also take on the salary of a low tier starting QB from the team trading us 

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1 minute ago, Dirtybird56 said:

Lions got that big of a haul because the Rams HAD to trade Goff as cutting him was impossible due to the dead money they would’ve had to eat. They paid the Lions extra in draft picks to take him. We won’t get that much for Ryan unless we also take on the salary of a low tier starting QB from the team trading us 

Falcons have to eat 40 M cap hit by trading Ryan. They aren’t gonna take any other contracts on top of that. 2021 is not the year to trade Ryan. Just trade down and get picks to build a team. When you can plug snd play QB with good team, it’s easier to win.

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13 minutes ago, Dirtybird56 said:

Lions got that big of a haul because the Rams HAD to trade Goff as cutting him was impossible due to the dead money they would’ve had to eat. They paid the Lions extra in draft picks to take him. We won’t get that much for Ryan unless we also take on the salary of a low tier starting QB from the team trading us 

I think it's more about the value of the draft pick, than it is for Ryan. 

People were throwing out lowball offers for Ryan, like a 3rd round pick. Clearly, he should merit at least a first and some change. 

The 4th overall, without the baggage of a bloated QB contract should be worth at least an additional 1st and second pick after the swap.

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10 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Falcons have to eat 40 M cap hit by trading Ryan. They aren’t gonna take any other contracts on top of that. 2021 is not the year to trade Ryan. Just trade down and get picks to build a team. When you can plug snd play QB with good team, it’s easier to win.

Yeah I have no interest in trading Ryan. Was just discussing the Rams trade bc some people seemed to think that the Lions got all that because Stafford is worth 2 firsts and a third, when in reality the Rams had to have someone take on the Goff contract because trading Goff cost them so much less in dead money than cutting him. What the trade really shows is teams know Goff is a bad QB, for the Rams to have to pay in draft capital to get him off their hands 

This will be further illustrated if Watson is traded this off-season, the compensation for him sure won’t match up with “Stafford is worth 2 firsts and a third” 

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12 minutes ago, Dirtybird56 said:

Lions got that big of a haul because the Rams HAD to trade Goff as cutting him was impossible due to the dead money they would’ve had to eat. They paid the Lions extra in draft picks to take him. We won’t get that much for Ryan unless we also take on the salary of a low tier starting QB from the team trading us 

My understanding is, cap hits from future bonuses accelerate to the present no matter if a player is released or traded.   Cap hits from bonuses do not carry over to other teams.

I'll admit, my info may be dated.   Because the NFL and NFLPA have already been manipluating the rules they agreed to in order to manage the Coronavirus.

Maybe one of the talking heads on TV will tell us how this worked....

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1 hour ago, egoprime II said:

The full article is on the Falcoholic website.   This particular part is Falcons related, so....here 'tis.   

 

The Falcons: Sitting pretty

Atlanta’s options are the same as they were a couple of days ago, but their position also got stronger.

Matt Ryan is unlikely to be moved, but it’s clear the Falcons can and would ask for multiple first round picks for him. Ryan is older than Matthew Stafford but is also a former NFL MVP who is aging pretty gracefully, and the idea that the Falcons would ship him out for a future second round pick or some nonsense should be put to bed after seeing this deal. If a team wants to blow Atlanta away and make them consider eating their big dead cap hit to move him, it’s clear what they’ll have to give up, and it’s quite a bit.

In the much likelier case that the Falcons keep him, teams are now just a little bit more likely to blow them away with an offer for the #4 pick. Stafford and Goff were both potential trade targets and are now both off the market, and it’s not clear whether any other veteran quarterbacks worth making a move for are actually on the block. That leaves teams outside of the top 5 picks starting down the prospect of not being able to get one of the top draft-eligible quarterbacks, and if you’re a Broncos team not sold on Drew Lock or a 49ers team getting antsy about Jimmy G, that’s an unfortunate position to be in.

If Atlanta wants to move down, then, and Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones are on the board at #4, they shouldn’t lack for suitors who know they won’t be able to get away with a miserly offer to move up 5 or 10 picks. The Falcons can do with those offers what they will, but they’re as well-positioned to trade down and secure a haul as they’ve been in many, many years.

 

One possible trading partner is now gone.

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1 hour ago, Dirtybird56 said:

Lions got that big of a haul because the Rams HAD to trade Goff as cutting him was impossible due to the dead money they would’ve had to eat. They paid the Lions extra in draft picks to take him. We won’t get that much for Ryan unless we also take on the salary of a low tier starting QB from the team trading us 

That's what the article is stating. In order for us to eat so much dead money, the gaining team is going to have to give us more than value for us to eat that dead cap hit. I agree.

It also strengthens our 4th pick. Seems pretty dead on to me. The supply vs demand effect just got bigger (the # of QBs just decreased by 2).

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Any trade up that's more than about 5 spots when it's at the top of the draft would be cost prohibitive for most teams so if you take the 5 spots below the Falcons you have the Bengals, already have their QB. The Eagles, possible trade partner. The Lions, got their man. The Panthers, maybe...would they trade in division?, The Broncos, possible. Anything below here would cost too much IMO.

The Falcons already have plenty of picks in this draft but if they could secure a few more it would allow them to package picks for trade ups later in the draft to target certain guys. If they for instance could wrangle another 2nd and 3rd rounder for that 4th pick they could trade those to move back up for someone in the bottom of the first. That would give them 2 1st rounders and they still would have a 2nd and a 3rd. That's an optimum scenario I'd think.

All three of the teams above the Falcons are likely to take QB, if one doesn't, the Falcon phone starts ringing off the hook.

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1 hour ago, falcons007 said:

Falcons have to eat 40 M cap hit by trading Ryan. They aren’t gonna take any other contracts on top of that. 2021 is not the year to trade Ryan. Just trade down and get picks to build a team. When you can plug snd play QB with good team, it’s easier to win.

The Ryan contract is in the books.  It really only leaves a few options:

  • Option I: keep Ryan’s contract as in.  It’s a 41 mill cap hit.  

  • Option II: Designate Ryan 6/1 cut.  This creates 23 mill in dead money with 17 mill in cap space freed up

  • Option III:  trade Ryan with a 6/1 designation.  This has a few benefits but only if they draft their QB at 4th overall and are good starting him year 1. In this situation you likely get a 1st & 3rd round pick for Ryan (basing this off Stafford trade).  There will be 17 mill in dead money, but it’s offset because it frees up 24 mill in cap space.  
 

So Option III warrants serious consideration.  We pick our next franchise QB with this years 4th pick (assumes the in house evaluations on Wilson or Fields are in agreement that at least one of them is a franchise QB)).  The trade also open up 24 mill in cap space and we receive two much needed  picks compensation for Ryan. To me, you make this trade ASAP and draft Wilson/Fields and then with the second 1st round pick

 

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53 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

I've been saying this for weeks.  We are in a good position.  Terry has a really good situation to make solid choices.

This is the thing. We all have preferences with #4, but whatever TF and AS do, we're going to get premium value with that pick. A bonus for the incoming regime they can use any way they want. Going to be a blast seeing what they decide.

 

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1 hour ago, egoprime II said:

My understanding is, cap hits from future bonuses accelerate to the present no matter if a player is released or traded.   Cap hits from bonuses do not carry over to other teams.

I'll admit, my info may be dated.   Because the NFL and NFLPA have already been manipluating the rules they agreed to in order to manage the Coronavirus.

Maybe one of the talking heads on TV will tell us how this worked....

Right, the guaranteed at signing can’t be traded. Looking at Goffs contract.

Guaranteed at Signing: 57 M.

Salary for 2019 and 2020: 2 M

Total Cash paid : 57.5 M/ 55 M bonus +2.5 M salary.

cap hit for 2019/20: 38 M

Dead Cap for Rams: 22 M and savings 12 M. 

Bottom line: Rams owed 60 M to Goff in last two years including 2 M unpaid bonus. Goff counted only 38 M. So they have dead cap of 22 M. 
 

Detroit took the future contract, which is mostly the salary and couple of roster bonuses. That in essence is like 1 year 25-27 M deal if they want to move on from Goff.

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11 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

The Ryan contract is in the books.  It really only leaves a few options:

  • Option I: keep Ryan’s contract as in.  It’s a 41 mill cap hit.  

  • Option II: Designate Ryan 6/1 cut.  This creates 23 mill in dead money with 17 mill in cap space freed up

  • Option III:  trade Ryan with a 6/1 designation.  This has a few benefits but only if they draft their QB at 4th overall and are good starting him year 1. In this situation you likely get two 1st round picks for Ryan (basing this off Stafford trade).  There will be 17 mill in dead money, but it’s offset because it frees up 24 mill in cap space.  
 

So Option III warrants serious consideration.  We pick our next franchise QB with this years 4th pick (assumes the in house evaluations on Wilson or Fields are in agreement that at least one of them is a franchise QB)).  The trade also open up 24 mill in cap space and we receive two much needed  1st round picks as compensation for Ryan. To me, you make this trade ASAP and draft Wilson/Fields and then with the second 1st round pick

 

Option 3 will be a huge problem too. Ryan’s dead cap will be 17 M in 2021, 17 M in 2022 and 6-7 M in 2023. That’s taking away few premier FA not this year but next year too. The teams with ton of dead money are usually the bad teams. In essence, the QB pick is not just #4 over all but additional 40 M on top of their rookie contracts. 
Like I said TF and AS has to go out of their way to trade Ryan. The whole point of rookie contract is to be cheap. 

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18 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

The Ryan contract is in the books.  It really only leaves a few options:

  • Option I: keep Ryan’s contract as in.  It’s a 41 mill cap hit.  

  • Option II: Designate Ryan 6/1 cut.  This creates 23 mill in dead money with 17 mill in cap space freed up

  • Option III:  trade Ryan with a 6/1 designation.  This has a few benefits but only if they draft their QB at 4th overall and are good starting him year 1. In this situation you likely get two 1st round picks for Ryan (basing this off Stafford trade).  There will be 17 mill in dead money, but it’s offset because it frees up 24 mill in cap space.  
 

So Option III warrants serious consideration.  We pick our next franchise QB with this years 4th pick (assumes the in house evaluations on Wilson or Fields are in agreement that at least one of them is a franchise QB)).  The trade also open up 24 mill in cap space and we receive two much needed  1st round picks as compensation for Ryan. To me, you make this trade ASAP and draft Wilson/Fields and then with the second 1st round pick

 

You can't just designate ryan a post June trade....it's not like cutting him so he could get started looking for new teams which was the whole reason the June 1st designation became a thing anyway.

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20 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

The Ryan contract is in the books.  It really only leaves a few options:

  • Option I: keep Ryan’s contract as in.  It’s a 41 mill cap hit.  

  • Option II: Designate Ryan 6/1 cut.  This creates 23 mill in dead money with 17 mill in cap space freed up

  • Option III:  trade Ryan with a 6/1 designation.  This has a few benefits but only if they draft their QB at 4th overall and are good starting him year 1. In this situation you likely get two 1st round picks for Ryan (basing this off Stafford trade).  There will be 17 mill in dead money, but it’s offset because it frees up 24 mill in cap space.  
 

So Option III warrants serious consideration.  We pick our next franchise QB with this years 4th pick (assumes the in house evaluations on Wilson or Fields are in agreement that at least one of them is a franchise QB)).  The trade also open up 24 mill in cap space and we receive two much needed  1st round picks as compensation for Ryan. To me, you make this trade ASAP and draft Wilson/Fields and then with the second 1st round pick

 

 

 

Ive made a post about this but yea i think we only have 2 real choices....

1.Keep Ryan and extending him a year to fix his cap hit because we are going all in with Matt... Trading that pick if possibly and build on this team with the new regime type of guys

2. Your option 3... Trade Matt going all in on the Rook.... Getting the extra picks from Matt Trade and building this team to fit this regime.

 

What doesnt make sense is keeping Matt at 41 mil... Your team cap is just shot.. You cant improve it much so you will have to restructure..... If you restructure you are going to have to keep Matt for the next 2 or 3 years , so if you draft a rook with the 4th pick.... You are basically paying 6 mil, 7.5 mil, and 9 mil to your rook (cap hit) while paying Matt his contract.... Plus you are wasting the rooks cheap cap years (compared to what the top guys are making)

 

This isnt like the Packers situation ... Jordan Love is making like 2 million this year and 2.5 mil next year

 

To me those are our realistic options

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48 minutes ago, slider said:

Any trade up that's more than about 5 spots when it's at the top of the draft would be cost prohibitive for most teams so if you take the 5 spots below the Falcons you have the Bengals, already have their QB. The Eagles, possible trade partner. The Lions, got their man. The Panthers, maybe...would they trade in division?, The Broncos, possible. Anything below here would cost too much IMO.

The Falcons already have plenty of picks in this draft but if they could secure a few more it would allow them to package picks for trade ups later in the draft to target certain guys. If they for instance could wrangle another 2nd and 3rd rounder for that 4th pick they could trade those to move back up for someone in the bottom of the first. That would give them 2 1st rounders and they still would have a 2nd and a 3rd. That's an optimum scenario I'd think.

All three of the teams above the Falcons are likely to take QB, if one doesn't, the Falcon phone starts ringing off the hook.

I’m not sure the Lions did get their man. I could absolutely see them drafting a QB. 

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34 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

You can't just designate ryan a post June trade....it's not like cutting him so he could get started looking for new teams which was the whole reason the June 1st designation became a thing anyway.

Good catch. So on the trade you are unable to designate the date the transaction takes place like you can when releasing a player? Makes it much more difficult to accomplish

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Im not a doctor, but I honestly believe Ryan should be on anxiety meds.. Maybe he has ptsd from nightmares with his oline.. But the guy never looks relaxed in the pocket.. If somehow he can get chilled out he may be able to perform at his best, but every time he takes a snap and he has the deer in headlights look on his face i worry about whats coming next.. Just a thought, im here for you Ryan if you need to talk.. Mods please deliver to Falcons medical staff.. Ryan needs our help 

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55 minutes ago, atljbo said:

 

 

Ive made a post about this but yea i think we only have 2 real choices....

1.Keep Ryan and extending him a year to fix his cap hit because we are going all in with Matt... Trading that pick if possibly and build on this team with the new regime type of guys

2. Your option 3... Trade Matt going all in on the Rook.... Getting the extra picks from Matt Trade and building this team to fit this regime.

 

What doesnt make sense is keeping Matt at 41 mil... Your team cap is just shot.. You cant improve it much so you will have to restructure..... If you restructure you are going to have to keep Matt for the next 2 or 3 years , so if you draft a rook with the 4th pick.... You are basically paying 6 mil, 7.5 mil, and 9 mil to your rook (cap hit) while paying Matt his contract.... Plus you are wasting the rooks cheap cap years (compared to what the top guys are making)

 

This isnt like the Packers situation ... Jordan Love is making like 2 million this year and 2.5 mil next year

 

To me those are our realistic options

Option 3 isn’t much of an option unless the rookie will be another Mahomes.

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1 minute ago, Slumerican said:

Im not a doctor, but I honestly believe Ryan should be on anxiety meds.. Maybe he has ptsd from nightmares with his oline.. But the guy never looks relaxed in the pocket.. If somehow he can get chilled out he may be able to perform at his best, but every time he takes a snap and he has the deer in headlights look on his face i worry about whats coming next.. Just a thought, im here for you Ryan if you need to talk.. Mods please deliver to Falcons medical staff.. Ryan needs our help 

I have seen low on TATF. But this post is just scummy. You have reached Swift level of stupidity. Walk away from the Keyboard.

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