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Well, This Shakes Up the NFL and the Draft


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OK I just checked my crystal ball. After this trade was finalized Fonty got curious and wanted to know what he could fetch in a Ryan trade. He called his closest buddies around the league to discuss offers. Much to the TATF QB Boys liking he landed a similar deal.

A first, second and fourth. Unfortunately the trade was with the Aints. Fonty took Zack Wilson with the fourth pick. He had a similar start as Baker Mayfield but plateaued after that. Ryan went on to win back to back rings under Sean Payton before retiring in 2023.

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Ok I would Trade Matt Ryan for that.

The lion as absolutely fleeced the Rams

I just don’t get this on the rams part. Stafford is good, but I don’t think he is so much of an upgrade over Goff that he warrants all of those picks as well. That is a do or die move. 

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3 minutes ago, falconsd56 said:

Regardless of that....3 out of the 4 years he has had losing seasons...with 10 or more losses in each year.

And then you throw in the fact that the one good year that he had.....he as a play caller choked big time in the super bowl and was a big reason why they lost.

Coaches can only use the injury excuse for so long.... especially when they could have done more to reinforce the qb situation incase of injury.

 

He finishes 6-10 again or worae and he is gone....as he should be.

Jimmy G missed Sanders. That was his fault. He hit that and the Niners are champs. 

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4 minutes ago, Rings said:

I can’t wait for Ryan to go off this year and shut up comments like this.  His arm didn’t look like it got worse, he didn’t look old.  “QB is mid 30s and his team didn’t perform as well, he must be too old now.”  The scheme was garbage.  That’s it.  Ryan’s had multiple throws with a ton of juice and zip in weeks 16 & 17. He’s fine and likely will be until he’s 40.  He was never a QB who relied on arm strength, he relies on accuracy, timing and the mental game, similar to a brees, Brady, manning.  None had cannons.  Will Ryan play until mid 40’s?  Probably not, but to write him off at 35 after throwing for 4,500 yards still is extremely lazy.

He led the league in pass attempts.

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2 hours ago, Beast-N-Da-Sheetz said:

After this deal, Terry should definitely be listening to offers for Matt.

And Dan Snyder should be #1 on speed dial. He would be THE guy to surpass the Rams deal. I am a Matt fan but ridiculous offers like this must be considered. Something along the Herschel Walker Cowboys/Vikings trade would be nice. 

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12 minutes ago, Serge said:

He led the league in pass attempts.

And you wonder why YPA you cited is a useless metric by itself? If he was washed he couldn’t even throw that much. Pass attempt by sheer volume generally lower YPA. You are seeing what you want to believe without weighing all of the facts.

Good thing we won’t need to throw as much under Arthur Smith. Maybe efficiency will return.manning.jpg.f9279c687547fcff2cc8d4c940041a1f.jpg

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16 hours ago, Butudontseeme™ said:

I just don’t get this on the rams part. Stafford is good, but I don’t think he is so much of an upgrade over Goff that he warrants all of those picks as well. That is a do or die move. 

for one neither 1st is this year so the deal is more like a 1st a 2nd and a 3rd, but it also gets Goffs contract off the Rams books which I feel is a piece people are not accounting for?

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Just now, Ergo Proxy said:

And you wonder why YPA is a useless metric by itself? If he was washed he couldn’t even throw that much. You are seeing what you want to believe without weighing all of the facts.

Good thing we won’t need to throw as much under Arthur Smith. Maybe efficiency will return.manning.jpg.f9279c687547fcff2cc8d4c940041a1f.jpg

"I only believe in stats that matter" is the game we played during the Vick years. You can always talk yourself into a guy once you take out ypa, adjust the completion percentage for drops, give him passing yard credit for rushing yards, and compare him to Joe Montana in his third year in the league.

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6 minutes ago, Serge said:

"I only believe in stats that matter" is the game we played during the Vick years. You can always talk yourself into a guy once you take out ypa, adjust the completion percentage for drops, give him passing yard credit for rushing yards, and compare him to Joe Montana in his third year in the league.

Understanding what stats say is different than cherry-picking them. Placing too much blame or credit on the QB alone is also part of the fallacy of a mere listing of stats.

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5 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Understanding what stats say is different than cherry-picking them. Placing too much blame or credit on the QB alone is also part of the fallacy of a mere listing of stats.

I wasn't the one under the impression that Ryan and Stafford are similar trade assets based on them having such similar stats last year.

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5 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Understanding what stats say is different than cherry-picking them. Placing too much blame or credit on the QB alone is also part of the fallacy of a mere listing of stats.

This is a basic truth about football on any level and in my opinion, this should be a mantra that should be understood by anyone wishing to post on here. Anyone who doesn’t understand and believe this with all their heart is not someone I would ever wish to talk football with. 

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5 minutes ago, Serge said:

I wasn't the one under the impression that Ryan and Stafford are similar trade assets based on them having such similar stats last year.

Me either. :shrug::tiphat:

And, a trade asset alone isn't the deciding factor on price in any given trade. Unloading a bad contract is one reason the Rams paid so much. Stafford also; apparently, influenced where he would go. He wanted out.

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1 minute ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Me either. :shrug::tiphat:

And, a trade asset along isn't the deciding factor on price in any given trade. Unloading a bad contract is one reason the Rams paid so much.

I think my confusion with this conversation is that I don't see it as a virtue that Ryan's contract is massive to the point of constricting everything else we do this offseason, and would destroy us if we traded him.

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35 minutes ago, Romfal said:

for one neither 1st is this year so the deal is more like a 1st a 2nd and a 3rd, but it also gets Goffs contract off the Rams books which I feel is a piece people are not accounting for?

Time will tell if it was worth it... Les Snead and co better hope so because it will likely be their butts if it doesn’t. 

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2 hours ago, jidady said:

I actually looked at this the other day. The Athletic has a good article up about SF's cap situation if you subscribe:

https://theathletic.com/2276596/2020/12/22/49ers-2021-salary-cap-challenges/

Here's the key takeaway:

"The 49ers can cut or trade Garoppolo for $24.1 million in cap savings, a total that factors in the $2.8 million of dead money that’d be associated with such a move."

So, Matt would slot in for less money than Garoppolo. As such, they *could* trade for him.

Since they don't have a third round pick, it'd probably require an overpay on their part, though. We would want the #12 plus another pick. Since they don't have a third-rounder, it'd be the #107. So, they'd pick at #43 but then sit on their hands until #148.

I suspect they'd need to pay with this year's first and next year's second plus maybe a player.

I mean yes they can go all in on Ryan but again: Is he on the market? Are the Falcons able to move Ryan without cap relief? Because as it stands, he can’t be moved before June 2nd. We won’t get a pick for this draft and will have already committed to a QB at #4. Are the 49ers really going to pay the extra cost to take Matt that late into the offseason and are the Falcons going to cut bait then? Weird plan to rely on as the path forward but it could happen.

I doubt the new regime is going to hitch themselves to a rookie out of the gate but you never know.

It might be more feasible for 49ers to pay for Watson now than Matt later. (Assuming Houston caves, but that’s why Stafford is gone anyway...the player wanted out)

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4 hours ago, 44 Aaron RF said:

And Dan Snyder should be #1 on speed dial. He would be THE guy to surpass the Rams deal. I am a Matt fan but ridiculous offers like this must be considered. Something along the Herschel Walker Cowboys/Vikings trade would be nice. 

Won’t be that much in return .. his contract is still huge but Redskins/Bears/Colts would be ideal trade partners 

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5 hours ago, Serge said:

I think my confusion with this conversation is that I don't see it as a virtue that Ryan's contract is massive to the point of constricting everything else we do this offseason, and would destroy us if we traded him.

Trading Ryan is only POSSIBLY worth it if you get a massive haul, BUT we are limited at timing a trade in the immediate future. Maybe in 1-2 years if we want then?

We've managed a reasonable cap hit of his contract for years now. I'm not worried about that; in of itself such as it could be restructured further etc, but overall contract remaining and the effect of a trade on short-term success; something the new regime is also expected to nail down not just pretending we are in massive rebuild...well...it can be managed if they choose to keep Matt for years.

The problem is people are thinking ONLY within the framework of "how/when" do we move on from Ryan. It's lazy and lacks insight.

New regime is far more likely to try their hand at building a team with presumed improved coaching WITH Ryan in tow than immediately moving on.

People just want something new for the sake of feeling better. And thats a dumb way to try to win a SB.

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1 minute ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Trading Ryan is only POSSIBLY worth it if you get a massive haul, BUT we are limited at timing a trade in the immediate future. Maybe in 1-2 years if we want then?

We've managed a reasonable cap hit of his for years now. I'm not worried about that, but overall contract remaining and the effect of a trade on short-term success; something the new regime is also expected to nail down not just pretending we are in massive rebuild...well...it can be managed if they choose to keep Matt for years.

The problem is people are thinking ONLY within the framework of "how/when" do we move on from Ryan. It's lazy and lacks insight.

New regime is far more likely to try their hand at building a team with presumed improved coaching WITH Ryan in tow than immediately moving on.

People just want something for the sake of feeling better. And thats a dumb way to try to win a SB.

Trading Ryan is only worth it if the team decided it was time to blow everything up and start a full rebuild, starting with creating enough space this year to account for all the dead cap that would be created by trading him. We don't have to do that, but we're not going to go back to the Super Bowl with how much they're paying Ryan right now to get pummeled behind a line that's probably still at least two starters short of being able to protect Ryan adequately. Either way, we're talking about what the team might be able to do once Fontenot's able to un**** our salary cap, which might mean trading Ryan next year, or letting him play through 2023, but the structure of the team has to change in order to build a defense that can compete in the playoffs.

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6 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

OK I just checked my crystal ball. After this trade was finalized Fonty got curious and wanted to know what he could fetch in a Ryan trade. He called his closest buddies around the league to discuss offers. Much to the TATF QB boys liking he landed a similar deal.

Two firsts, a second and a fourth. Unfortunately the trade was with the Aints. Fonty took Zack Wilson with the fourth pick. He had a similar start as Baker Mayfield and plateaued after that. Ryan went on to win back to back rings under Sean Payton before retiring in 2023.

Please, I can only take so much pain.

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23 minutes ago, Serge said:

Trading Ryan is only worth it if the team decided it was time to blow everything up and start a full rebuild, starting with creating enough space this year to account for all the dead cap that would be created by trading him. We don't have to do that, but we're not going to go back to the Super Bowl with how much they're paying Ryan right now to get pummeled behind a line that's probably still at least two starters short of being able to protect Ryan adequately. Either way, we're talking about what the team might be able to do once Fontenot's able to un**** our salary cap, which might mean trading Ryan next year, or letting him play through 2023, but the structure of the team has to change in order to build a defense that can compete in the playoffs.

We’ll see what a change in coaching does all around. The current cap is from going all in during recent years, some bad contracts with dead money and Covid. It isn’t a sole function of having a franchise QB on contract, but overpaying for the ones we shouldn’t be still paying for when they didn’t need 2nd contracts like Freeman or Rico. We were inept at developing and creating a culture that pushed a curve wrt quality. 

we need better drafting on defense. That was the plan! Lol

but we had Beasley, Collins, Takk (trade up Lol) Duke, and so far a ? on Oliver, MIA on Senat...at least AJ looks good so far. Marlon had a washed rookie year. Cominsky needs to be coached hard. Sheffield hasn’t developed as a boundary CB.

Walker, Foye and Debo have promise moving forward. Grady is Grady. Safety has been sad and CB is still a problem behind AJ; plus overall pass rush concerns but Pees will be creative and different. We aren’t so far away but it’ll need to be a well executed offseason along with contract management to get in the right area of growth.

Got some talent on defense, need to add more and have it come together. Building a run game may be quicker than you think. Dirk has these guys, IMO, looking worse than they are. I’m mostly concerned about C moving forward. We don’t need stars at every position. The offense has vastly underperformed and the defense has missed on its picks. Bad coaching and drafting.

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2 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

We’ll see what a change in coaching does all around. The current cap is from going all in during recent years, some bad contracts with dead money and Covid. It isn’t a sole function of having a franchise QB on contract, but overpaying for the ones we shouldn’t be still paying for when they didn’t need 2nd contracts like Freeman or Rico. We were inept at developing and creating a culture that pushed a curve wrt quality. 

we need better drafting on defense. That was the plan! Lol

but we had Beasley, Collins, Takk (trade up Lol) Duke, and so far a ? on Oliver, MIA on Senat...at least AJ looks good so far. Walker, Foye and Debo have promise. Grady is Grady. Safety has been sad and CB is still a problem behind AJ; plus overall pass rush concerns.

Got some talent on defense, need to add more and have it come together. Building a run game may be quicker than you think. Dirk has these guys, IMO, looking worse than they are. I’m mostly concerned about C moving forward. We don’t need stars at every position. The offense has vastly underperformed and the defense has missed on its picks. Bad coaching and drafting.

And horrible roster management! We had four running backs last year, led the league in pass attempts like we have before with Koetter, and yet we didn't have a running back that functioned exceptionally well with Ryan in the passing game. What Dimitroff did to try to fix the oline was too much and not nearly enough. Our offense takes up too much cap space to even retain the talent we have on defense every year, and even so, most of the dline's main players last year were former mid-level free agents and udfas, while Dimitroff's draft picks haven't been able to stay on the field. We're at least a couple years away from really contending because it's going to take that long before we can start to add to the roster outside of the draft again.

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9 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

OK I just checked my crystal ball. After this trade was finalized Fonty got curious and wanted to know what he could fetch in a Ryan trade. He called his closest buddies around the league to discuss offers. Much to the TATF QB Boys liking he landed a similar deal.

A first, second and fourth. Unfortunately the trade was with the Aints. Fonty took Zack Wilson with the fourth pick. He had a similar start as Baker Mayfield but plateaued after that. Ryan went on to win back to back rings under Sean Payton before retiring in 2023.

If that happened I think I would hope for early dementia so it would be like it never even happened. 

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