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If the Falcons had gone BPA each year under TD...


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This was a thread topic yesterday that used the fallacy that we could/would have taken the absolute best player on the board. Those are hindsight posts not based in reality.

However, Dimitroff's need-based drafting strategy DOES ignore the best players overall by favoring certain positions where we have weak starters/depth.

So, I pulled together Rick Gosselin's old boards plus NFL Draft Scout to evaluate who would have been reasonable options as BPA from 2008 through 2012.

For those of you unfamiliar with him, Gosselin nurtured strong relationships and trust with NFL personnel people. So, they would share their draft boards with him, entrusting him to keep the data private. Then, Gosselin would perform a service for the league by creating a composite top 100 board. It was the most accurate draft list in existence, one that teams used on Draft Day. So, it's as accurate as possible for this thought exercise.

I'll update through 2020 as time allows today. So, keep checking back.

Here's what my research shows:

2008: Pick #3 -- Matt Ryan was only #6 on Gosselin's board. So, we would have gotten the #1 player that year instead. Yes, it was Glenn Dorsey. The rest of the top five were Darren McFadden, Chris Long, Jake Long, and Sedrick Ellis.

2009: Pick #24 -- CB Vontae Davis, #13 overall on the composite board, was BPA. He would have been a good player for us. Beanie Wells would have been second. So, that wouldn't have been any better than Peria Jerry, who was #24.

2010: Pick #19 -- DT Dan Williams, #8 overall on the composite board, was clearly BPA when we drafted. This was a feast or famine pick, as #2 would have been Dez Bryant. Williams played seven years in the NFL but never was the same after breaking his arm in his second year. Weatherspoon was #26.

2011: Pick #6 -- This one doesn't matter since we had locked in on Julio. AJ Green was #1 on the board that year. I'm having trouble finding Gosselin's full board for 2011. I've found about 15 of the picks mentioned incidentally on old draft sites but am still looking for the full list.

2012: That trade also took us out of 2012's first round. Pick #55 --Jayron Hosley, CB.  Gosselin's composite board had Hosley at #28, but he slid to #94. The latter still represented an overdraft. Our pick, Peter Konz, was ranked #30, which means we still theoretically received first round value. In fact, Konz would have been #2 on the board in BPA. Hilarious, right?

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Obviously, the key here is what the actual boards were in the Falcons draft room, and then for comparison's sake, in all the other draft rooms, to come to a composite of where each player was valued, but of course we'll never see those.

Every GM will say that they had players who, if they knew were going to turn out as good as they did, would have taken them much sooner, so for sure, teams just don't know these players will be that good at the time they take them.

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Could you imagine our passing on Matt in 08? I can't even imagine. Despite the recent problems and 13-14, by far our best years have been with Matt under center. 

I hated the Spoon pick from the word go. I hated the Jerry pick, even though I got that they chose need. My beef with the decision was, didn't anyone get a scouting report that let us know how absolutely lazy he was????

Davis would've been a great add there. 

 

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2 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

Could you imagine our passing on Matt in 08? I can't even imagine. Despite the recent problems and 13-14, by far our best years have been with Matt under center. 

I hated the Spoon pick from the word go. I hated the Jerry pick, even though I got that they chose need. My beef with the decision was, didn't anyone get a scouting report that let us know how absolutely lazy he was????

Davis would've been a great add there. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, wasn't Jerry a cant miss?  He had a serious knee injury that derailed him badly.  I didn't know about him being lazy.  The things you learn when you hang around...🤣🤣

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2 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

Could you imagine our passing on Matt in 08? I can't even imagine. Despite the recent problems and 13-14, by far our best years have been with Matt under center. 

I hated the Spoon pick from the word go. I hated the Jerry pick, even though I got that they chose need. My beef with the decision was, didn't anyone get a scouting report that let us know how absolutely lazy he was????

Davis would've been a great add there. 

 

I don’t hate spoon pick, he was important part of 2012 and played well. The injury to spoon in 2013, against Rams? Showed how bad the Falcons LB outside of Spoon. Jerry dominant in couple of games before blowing up his knee. Pan was never same after that. I think TD drafts got worse from 2012-2014 except for couple of players. Good 2016 and bad after that. 

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2 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, wasn't Jerry a cant miss?  He had a serious knee injury that derailed him badly.  I didn't know about him being lazy.  The things you learn when you hang around...🤣🤣

I wouldn’t call it lazy, he just didn’t have it any more after coming back from injury. He tried and gave up.

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26 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

Could you imagine our passing on Matt in 08? I can't even imagine. Despite the recent problems and 13-14, by far our best years have been with Matt under center. 

I hated the Spoon pick from the word go. I hated the Jerry pick, even though I got that they chose need. My beef with the decision was, didn't anyone get a scouting report that let us know how absolutely lazy he was????

Davis would've been a great add there. 

 

I waa more afraid the Rams would take him than us passing on him... I do however remember quite a few mocks around here with Brian Brohm thrown in there 😂

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It's hard to tell who BPA would be on the Falcons draft board. 

 

Pick #55 --Jayron Hosley, CB.  Gosselin's composite board had Hosley at #28, but he slid to #94. The latter still represented an overdraft. Our pick, Peter Konz, was ranked #30, which means we still theoretically received first round value. In fact, Konz would have been #2 on the board in BPA. Hilarious, right?

 

Jayron Hosley was definitely overvalued by Gosselin's composite board if he slid from #28 to #94. Konz was probably a BPA and Need pick at the same time. I liked the pick at the time, unfortunately after an ok rookie year at guard he was awful the rest of his time as a Falcon.

 

 

 

 

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The draft really is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get.

But with a pick in the top 10ish range, I expect an above average player (a starter or someone who plays a lot of snaps). For the rest, if they can play and provide a benefit to the team for the duration of their rookie contract, that's really all I hope for. And past the 4th round, if we can get anything out of them, it's a win for me.

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BPA isn’t so cut and dry. It’s still BPA based on your scheme and philosophy. Is the BPA a player that can play in any system or is he a system specific type player. Like a 3-4  outside LB. Or ZBS blocking lineman or Power blocking lineman. BPA isn’t and shouldn’t be solely just the best player available period. Bill belichik trades back if the BPA doesn’t fit his system. There is still a strategy to BPA. 

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1 hour ago, falcons007 said:

I don’t hate spoon pick, he was important part of 2012 and played well. The injury to spoon in 2013, against Rams? Showed how bad the Falcons LB outside of Spoon. Jerry dominant in couple of games before blowing up his knee. Pan was never same after that. I think TD drafts got worse from 2012-2014 except for couple of players. Good 2016 and bad after that. 

I think that 2012-14 drafts being so terrible were in part due to Mike Smith losing his way. He was definitely grasping at straws with the team's identity. I remember being very impressed because Quinn brought us an identity and a mold of what he wanted his players to be like, and then the drafting immediately got better. Shanahan also knew what kind of players he wanted for his system and TD was able to pull the right guys in.

I wish there was some way to add the effects of coaching into looking back at these draft picks. I really think that the Falcons under Quinn really failed to develop players that weren't already exceptional. Seemed like Ulbrich could develop LBers well, and we always had a strong WR corps. But not much outside of that. I wish there were a metric for this to add to these lists.

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2 hours ago, falcons007 said:

I don’t hate spoon pick, he was important part of 2012 and played well. The injury to spoon in 2013, against Rams? Showed how bad the Falcons LB outside of Spoon. Jerry dominant in couple of games before blowing up his knee. Pan was never same after that. I think TD drafts got worse from 2012-2014 except for couple of players. Good 2016 and bad after that. 

I loved the Spoon pick. He was a very under rated player for us who brought a lot of energy and leadership to us. Sadly injuries curtailed the latter part of his career. 

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1 minute ago, ATLskinjob said:

I think that 2012-14 drafts being so terrible were in part due to Mike Smith losing his way. He was definitely grasping at straws with the team's identity. I remember being very impressed because Quinn brought us an identity and a mold of what he wanted his players to be like, and then the drafting immediately got better. Shanahan also knew what kind of players he wanted for his system and TD was able to pull the right guys in.

I wish there was some way to add the effects of coaching into looking back at these draft picks. I really think that the Falcons under Quinn really failed to develop players that weren't already exceptional. Seemed like Ulbrich could develop LBers well, and we always had a strong WR corps. But not much outside of that. I wish there were a metric for this to add to these lists.

One common theme under two coaches was TD drafting on measurables not football players. DQ also had advantage of Matt Ryan and Julio in prime. It probably masked lot of stuff from 2015. KS hire was best part of DQs time here.

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34 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

BPA isn’t so cut and dry. It’s still BPA based on your scheme and philosophy. Is the BPA a player that can play in any system or is he a system specific type player. Like a 3-4  outside LB. Or ZBS blocking lineman or Power blocking lineman. BPA isn’t and shouldn’t be solely just the best player available period. Bill belichik trades back if the BPA doesn’t fit his system. There is still a strategy to BPA. 

I remember sometime back reading an article about how a team did their boards vs other teams. It noted that they had a prospect on their boards that almost every team they knew had as a 1st round pick, but they had him as a 3rd round pick for reasons of differences in scheme and depth.

For example, if you're a team that run mostly man, and a top tier zone CB, but who struggles in man, falls to you, you very well may pass.

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21 minutes ago, hjerry said:

I remember sometime back reading an article about how a team did their boards vs other teams. It noted that they had a prospect on their boards that almost every team they knew had as a 1st round pick, but they had him as a 3rd round pick for reasons of differences in scheme and depth.

For example, if you're a team that run mostly man, and a top tier zone CB, but who struggles in man, falls to you, you very well may pass.

Exactly. It’s not as easy as “well he’s the best player on the board, let’s take him”. He could absolutely suck in your system. And that’s a perfect example. Man corners vs zone corners. Deion sanders is the prototype of man corners. He NEVER wanted to play zone. But he COULD play zone. You take him as a true BPA. Asante Samuel excels at zone. Was ok at man but you’re likely a zone team that wants him. There’s still strategy involved with BPA. 

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This the issue with the best available argument..   Who the **** Determine who is the best layer is.... The team might have a player ranked higher then DJ or Mel Kiper...

 

I remember mostly all them had Mitch Trubisky over MaHomeboy andddddd Watson.... 

I know it's easy to say T.J Watt over Takk but mostly everyone had Takk ranked higher on their big boards

I agree with the grabing the best player argument.... My thing is that is also determined  by the person whom is picking...

 

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37 minutes ago, atljbo said:

This the issue with the best available argument..   Who the **** Determine who is the best layer is.... The team might have a player ranked higher then DJ or Mel Kiper...

 

I remember mostly all them had Mitch Trubisky over MaHomeboy andddddd Watson.... 

I know it's easy to say T.J Watt over Takk but mostly everyone had Takk ranked higher on their big boards

I agree with the grabing the best player argument.... My thing is that is also determined  by the person whom is picking...

 

Yeah part of the problem was Dimitroff trading up and then missing. From 2017 to the present we've been just about totally reliant on the draft and bargain free agents to replenish and improve the defense, and in those four drafts Dimitroff only found about half a dozen total contributors for the defense. He found a few guys that are or might be high-level starters in that stretch, but he completely whiffed on drafting defensive linemen, and overall we lost more talent on defense than we added every year. Things might have been different if we traded up for Watt in 2017, but the whole point of trading up was getting the pass rusher they really believed in, and they really believed in the wrong guy.

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6 hours ago, falcons007 said:

I don’t hate spoon pick, he was important part of 2012 and played well. The injury to spoon in 2013, against Rams? Showed how bad the Falcons LB outside of Spoon. Jerry dominant in couple of games before blowing up his knee. Pan was never same after that. I think TD drafts got worse from 2012-2014 except for couple of players. Good 2016 and bad after that. 

"Joplo Bartu doesn't like this"

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8 hours ago, jidady said:

This was a thread topic yesterday that used the fallacy that we could/would have taken the absolute best player on the board. Those are hindsight posts not based in reality.

However, Dimitroff's need-based drafting strategy DOES ignore the best players overall by favoring certain positions where we have weak starters/depth.

So, I pulled together Rick Gosselin's old boards plus NFL Draft Scout to evaluate who would have been reasonable options as BPA from 2008 through 2012.

For those of you unfamiliar with him, Gosselin nurtured strong relationships and trust with NFL personnel people. So, they would share their draft boards with him, entrusting him to keep the data private. Then, Gosselin would perform a service for the league by creating a composite top 100 board. It was the most accurate draft list in existence, one that teams used on Draft Day. So, it's as accurate as possible for this thought exercise.

I'll update through 2020 as time allows today. So, keep checking back.

Here's what my research shows:

2008: Pick #3 -- Matt Ryan was only #6 on Gosselin's board. So, we would have gotten the #1 player that year instead. Yes, it was Glenn Dorsey. The rest of the top five were Darren McFadden, Chris Long, Jake Long, and Sedrick Ellis.

2009: Pick #24 -- CB Vontae Davis, #13 overall on the composite board, was BPA. He would have been a good player for us. Beanie Wells would have been second. So, that wouldn't have been any better than Peria Jerry, who was #24.

2010: Pick #19 -- DT Dan Williams, #8 overall on the composite board, was clearly BPA when we drafted. This was a feast or famine pick, as #2 would have been Dez Bryant. Williams played seven years in the NFL but never was the same after breaking his arm in his second year. Weatherspoon was #26.

2011: Pick #6 -- This one doesn't matter since we had locked in on Julio. AJ Green was #1 on the board that year. I'm having trouble finding Gosselin's full board for 2011. I've found about 15 of the picks mentioned incidentally on old draft sites but am still looking for the full list.

2012: That trade also took us out of 2012's first round. Pick #55 --Jayron Hosley, CB.  Gosselin's composite board had Hosley at #28, but he slid to #94. The latter still represented an overdraft. Our pick, Peter Konz, was ranked #30, which means we still theoretically received first round value. In fact, Konz would have been #2 on the board in BPA. Hilarious, right?

This Gosselin guy sucks monkey balls. Even TATF mockers had better BPAs than him.

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