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A Look At The First Round BPAs When We Were On The Clock From 2008-2020


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Dimi was an admitted "needs based" drafting disciple. He definitely hit on Ryan. QB was also a need at the time. You can even argue BPA hits on Julio and Ridley, although he gave up five picks and $165M for Julio when he had other options. Remember him asking Billy Check if he should trade up for Julio in 2011? Billy advised him not to but buddy felt a perceived need to "get explosive".

Fonty mentioned that he's a BPA guy by nature. That could change after he meets with Arty, but I hope he truly is. BPA is usually a group of 2-4 closely ranked players. Very subjective in the eyes of the beholders. The GM, HC, coaches and scouts. I think 13 years of BPA drafting will get us what we want. Draft BPA every year, in every round and get stacked. Yes even if the BPA is a QB.

Many will deem this a hindsight thread but au contraire my friends. Several TATF Armchair GMs had these BPAs on their radar. Even I had half em and I'm usually the last mocker to fock with two weeks of YouTube analysis. Dimi had tons of mocks, tape, combines, pro days, interviews, you name it. He even traded 13 picks to move up for 4 of these players when there were other BPAs available in later rounds. If we'd hit on half of these guys we would've been much better off.

First Round BPAs When We Were On The Clock In The Dimi Era (2008-2020):

  • 2008 - Drafted Matt Ryan - BPA - Matt Ryan
  • 2008 - Drafted Sam Baker - BPA - Duane Brown
  • 2009 - Drafted Peria Jerry - BPA - Clay Matthews
  • 2010 - Drafted Sean Weatherspoon - BPA - Demaryious Thomas
  • 2011 - Drafted Julio Jones - BPA - J.J Watt
  • 2013 - Drafted Desmond Trufant - BPA - DeAndre Hopkins
  • 2014 - Drafted Jake Matthews - BPA - Aaron Donald
  • 2015 - Drafted Vic Beasley - BPA - Todd Gurley
  • 2016 - Drafted Keanu Neal - BPA - Ryan Kelly
  • 2017 - Drafted Takkarist McKinley - BPA - Ryan Ramcyzk
  • 2018 - Drafted Calvin Ridley - BPA - Darius Leonard
  • 2019 - Drafted Chris Lindstrom - BPA - Josh Jacobs
  • 2019 - Drafted Kaleb McGary - BPA - Montez Sweat
  • 2020 - Drafted A.J. Terrell - BPA - Justin Jefferson
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Id love to see this done for the other 31 teams.  I would say in large part, there is a great deal of focus when you look back on any situation.  There is always a better route.  In no way am I forgiving TD for his selections, he busted a bunch, but its easy to look back and second guess now that you have all the information.

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Just now, Jesus said:

You can't look back after all is said and done and say that guy should have been drafted. You can look at the entire history of the franchise and build a team of solid hall of famers. You have no idea how a player is going to turn out on draft day.

Go dig up the archives. It's all there. Several mocker fockers hit harder than Dimi. True story. His needs based approach was flawed. Decent at skill positions. Unfortunately that's not where Lombardies are won.

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1 minute ago, Porkins said:

I would suggest that financials would have become an issue with the accumulation of all of those names. To be sure we'd have some really awesome windows of opportunity, but odds are they all wouldn't be on the team at the same time. Contracts run out and people want raises. Can't give it to all of them.

Interesting you mention this. Dimi was also a pay lifetime contracts guy. Something we're struggling with now. Top heavy and slanted toward the offense throughout his tenure.

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3 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

Id love to see this done for the other 31 teams.  I would say in large part, there is a great deal of focus when you look back on any situation.  There is always a better route.  In no way am I forgiving TD for his selections, he busted a bunch, but its easy to look back and second guess now that you have all the information.

Again. Check the archives. Armchair TATF GMs were calling for half these players. What happened?

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13 minutes ago, Porkins said:

I would suggest that financials would have become an issue with the accumulation of all of those names. To be sure we'd have some really awesome windows of opportunity, but odds are they all wouldn't be on the team at the same time. Contracts run out and people want raises. Can't give it to all of them.

Yep. The NFL has if all figured out. If you're really great at drafting players, then they're going to get big contracts. You have to start unloading whether you want to or not.

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I have a question about this list though...  is a BPA based on hindsight, knowing what those player have become in the NFL, or is is BPA based on the prevailing knowledge at the time of the draft?    Because there is a huge difference between saying a guy was BPA after seeing who they are now (thus all the "redraft the xxxx draft" articles we see all the time) vs what people thought they would be at the time of the draft.  

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1 minute ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

I have a question about this list though...  is a BPA based on hindsight, knowing what those player have become in the NFL, or is is BPA based on the prevailing knowledge at the time of the draft?    Because there is a huge difference between saying a guy was BPA after seeing who they are now (thus all the "redraft the xxxx draft" articles we see all the time) vs what people thought they would be at the time of the draft.  

My guess is this was based on his assumptions based on his posting history.  Frankly, dude never leaves this sight.  And is informatively highly opinionated.  🤣

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52 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Dimi was an admitted "needs based" drafting disciple. He definitely hit on Ryan. QB was also a need at the time. You can even argue BPA hits on Julio and Ridley, although he gave up five picks and $165M for Julio when he had other options. Remember him asking Billy Check if he should trade up for Julio in 2011? Billy advised him not to but buddy felt a perceived need to "get explosive".

Fonty mentioned that he's a BPA guy by nature. That could change after he meets with Arty, but I hope he truly is. BPA is usually a group of 2-4 closely ranked players. Very subjective in the eyes of the beholders. The GM, HC, coaches and scouts. I think 13 years of BPA drafting will get us what we want. Draft BPA every year, in every round and get stacked. Yes even if the BPA is a QB.

Many will deem this a hindsight thread but au contraire my friends. Several TATF Armchair GMs had these BPAs on their radar. Even I had half em and I'm usually the last mocker to fock with two weeks of YouTube analysis. Dimi had tons of mocks, tape, combines, pro days, interviews, you name it. He even traded 13 picks to move up for 4 of these players when there were other BPAs available in later rounds. If we'd hit on half of these guys we would've been much better off.

First Round BPAs When We Were On The Clock In The Dimi Era (2008-2020):

  • 2008 - Drafted Matt Ryan - BPA - Matt Ryan
  • 2008 - Drafted Sam Baker - BPA - Duane Brown
  • 2009 - Drafted Peria Jerry - BPA - Clay Matthews
  • 2010 - Drafted Sean Weatherspoon - BPA - Demaryious Thomas
  • 2011 - Drafted Julio Jones - BPA - J.J Watt
  • 2013 - Drafted Desmond Trufant - BPA - DeAndre Hopkins
  • 2014 - Drafted Jake Matthews - BPA - Aaron Donald
  • 2015 - Drafted Vic Beasley - BPA - Todd Gurley
  • 2016 - Drafted Keanu Neal - BPA - Ryan Kelly
  • 2017 - Drafted Takkarist McKinley - BPA - Ryan Ramcyzk
  • 2018 - Drafted Calvin Ridley - BPA - Darius Leonard
  • 2019 - Drafted Chris Lindstrom - BPA - Josh Jacobs
  • 2019 - Drafted Kaleb McGary - BPA - Montez Sweat
  • 2020 - Drafted A.J. Terrell - BPA - Justin Jefferson

BPA at the time (instead of in hind sight) wasn't that way.

2020...there were several rated above Terrell...so probably not BPA...but there were 3 or 4 equal guys there

2019...probably BPA was the DT the Giants took 

2018...Ridley was considered BPA

2017...probably as you state

2016...?

2015...Most considered Beasley BPA over Gurley.   Especially when taking into account positional Value.   He just didn't turn out.

2014...Jake Matthews was sort of tied with about 3 guys there for BPA.  We loved Donald here, but most didn't consider him BPA because there was some risk from him playing at a smaller school (and being smaller)

Even back in 2008, Baker was considered more pro ready, and it took a couple years for Duane Brown and he was considered even more of a project than he turned out to be.

 

So we definitely don't always go BPA, but we're in the vicinity 30-50% of the time first round.  I think that number will be higher going forward, especially in the middle and later rounds.

But looking back later it's easy to remember liking the guy who turned out to be a star (psychological phenomenon), instead of who actually was considered BPA at the time.

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22 minutes ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

I have a question about this list though...  is a BPA based on hindsight, knowing what those player have become in the NFL, or is is BPA based on the prevailing knowledge at the time of the draft?    Because there is a huge difference between saying a guy was BPA after seeing who they are now (thus all the "redraft the xxxx draft" articles we see all the time) vs what people thought they would be at the time of the draft.  

Not a hindsight thread. Check the archives. Still there. Many media pundits and even TATFers had them as BPAs.

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17 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

These were not the bpa on the live big board at the time, only in hindsight. I attached from 2011 where Julio is ranked 8 and Watt at 19

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/680372-2011-nfl-draft-big-board-final-position-rankings-and-top-100-prospects

Bleacher Creatures. What's their 2021 big board look like? Probably laughable.

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The problem with this, is that it’s based purely on hindsight. Plus, there are factors like injuries which are entirely outside a GM’s control.

Who is to say that Peria Jerry wouldn’t have been a great player if he hadn’t shredded his knee in his second career game, or that Matthews would have been a good scheme fit for us, or that Matthews would’t have suffered tha same injury if he’d been drafted here?

The whole BPA argument seems to be based on the idea there is someone on the board who AT THAT TIME was clearly and undisputedly the best player available, who fit our scheme and was head and shoulders above every other option. That is very rarely the case. Most times, teams are picking between players with very similar grades anyway.

Baker and Neal are the only 2 who I can recall, who looked like blatant reaches based on media and experts’ draft boards.

Of course Glen Dorsey was widely considered the can’t miss, once in a generation BPA in 2008. Taking Dorsey over Ryan would have been a massive mistake.

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28 minutes ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

I have a question about this list though...  is a BPA based on hindsight, knowing what those player have become in the NFL, or is is BPA based on the prevailing knowledge at the time of the draft?    Because there is a huge difference between saying a guy was BPA after seeing who they are now (thus all the "redraft the xxxx draft" articles we see all the time) vs what people thought they would be at the time of the draft.  

These are clearly hindsight BPA. But that doesn't mean this can't be valuable info. You should look at all these hindsight players and ask why they weren't valued higher in the draft process so you can learn lessons to find these types of players in the future. Afterall, if all you have to do is draft BPA on draft day, Arthur Blank could just pick players based on Mel Kiper's rankings. You hire a scouting staff so they can figure out the hindsight BPA's ahead of time. 

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1 hour ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Dimi was an admitted "needs based" drafting disciple. He definitely hit on Ryan. QB was also a need at the time. You can even argue BPA hits on Julio and Ridley, although he gave up five picks and $165M for Julio when he had other options. Remember him asking Billy Check if he should trade up for Julio in 2011? Billy advised him not to but buddy felt a perceived need to "get explosive".

Fonty mentioned that he's a BPA guy by nature. That could change after he meets with Arty, but I hope he truly is. BPA is usually a group of 2-4 closely ranked players. Very subjective in the eyes of the beholders. The GM, HC, coaches and scouts. I think 13 years of BPA drafting will get us what we want. Draft BPA every year, in every round and get stacked. Yes even if the BPA is a QB.

Many will deem this a hindsight thread but au contraire my friends. Several TATF Armchair GMs had these BPAs on their radar. Even I had half em and I'm usually the last mocker to fock with two weeks of YouTube analysis. Dimi had tons of mocks, tape, combines, pro days, interviews, you name it. He even traded 13 picks to move up for 4 of these players when there were other BPAs available in later rounds. If we'd hit on half of these guys we would've been much better off.

First Round BPAs When We Were On The Clock In The Dimi Era (2008-2020):

  • 2008 - Drafted Matt Ryan - BPA - Matt Ryan
  • 2008 - Drafted Sam Baker - BPA - Duane Brown
  • 2009 - Drafted Peria Jerry - BPA - Clay Matthews
  • 2010 - Drafted Sean Weatherspoon - BPA - Demaryious Thomas
  • 2011 - Drafted Julio Jones - BPA - J.J Watt
  • 2013 - Drafted Desmond Trufant - BPA - DeAndre Hopkins
  • 2014 - Drafted Jake Matthews - BPA - Aaron Donald
  • 2015 - Drafted Vic Beasley - BPA - Todd Gurley
  • 2016 - Drafted Keanu Neal - BPA - Ryan Kelly
  • 2017 - Drafted Takkarist McKinley - BPA - Ryan Ramcyzk
  • 2018 - Drafted Calvin Ridley - BPA - Darius Leonard
  • 2019 - Drafted Chris Lindstrom - BPA - Josh Jacobs
  • 2019 - Drafted Kaleb McGary - BPA - Montez Sweat
  • 2020 - Drafted A.J. Terrell - BPA - Justin Jefferson

But this is also “best player available” based on how they’ve turned out today which is virtually impossible for any team to predict. Now if we could hire a wizard or a fortune teller as a GM we’d be in business! 

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2 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

These are clearly hindsight BPA. But that doesn't mean this can't be valuable info. You should look at all these hindsight players and ask why they weren't valued higher in the draft process so you can learn lessons to find these types of players in the future. Afterall, if all you have to do is draft BPA on draft day, Arthur Blank could just pick players based on Mel Kiper's rankings. You hire a scouting staff so they can figure out the hindsight BPA's ahead of time. 

That ‘s true... and every organisation should also look back at its picks to see why they didn’t work out, whether it was something which could and should have foreseen at the time and what they can learn from it.

However, we also have to be realistic. Even with the money and resources that teams invest in player evaluation, there are still so many unknowns and variable which are simply outside their control.

These teams are tryin to predict how players are going to develop over the next 3-5 years, based on a few interviews and tests, and a limited amount of game film much of which is often against vastly inferior opposition. The draft is a crap shoot. It is educated guesswork, rather than an exact science.

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