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A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...


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10 minutes ago, Sven said:

Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 

I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)

It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 

If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 

/thread

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3 minutes ago, HairyArabFalconFan said:

Which is exactly why they put the young kid in at year 2, because if he starts showing flashes it can lead to a contract extension. 

I'm not saying it's the best strat, **** it's probably one of the worst. I'm just saying that drafting a young QB can be a tool to extend a front office/ coaching career just as much as you say it can destroy a career. I don't think it's controversial to say that plenty of GM's and Coaches have tried this route. 

No! HC is getting hammered right now for drafting a QB. Jock sniffing in NFCG when they could have used a playmaker on defense or offense has become joke of the NFL. If Rodgers leaves GB, ML better hope Love is good or he will be fired. 

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12 minutes ago, HairyArabFalconFan said:

You definitely are citing some good examples of how drafting QB and starting them immediately can lead to coaching changes if they play poorly; however these examples are not similar to our current situation  because  we already have an old franchise QB who needs to be replaced in the next 1-3 years. The last good QB tampa had before Brady was probably Jeff Garcia and we all know about the browns QB draft history. 

Our situation is more similar to GB drafting a QB to sit behind Rodgers or the Giants drafting Daniel Jones. Both front offices remain in tact. 

you have valid points. thing is that GB drafted love as QB4 at #26 as BPA. QB3/4 won't be BPA at #4 in this year's draft.

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1 hour ago, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

The pick we have now puts us in the best position for a top rated QB in a QB strong class. Trading up next year would be such a redundant move when Fontenot has a better look at the roster and can create a better draft board. Let Ryan take the early punches.

I'm not so much inclined to say this is a qb strong class as to say this is a other position weak class. I don't see the overall unexplainable love for these QB's as opposed to the ones coming out next year or the next. Don't see the rational behind rushing to the podium for the 3rd or 4th best qb in this class just because we may never have a number 4 pick again. In future years, as with most, there will probably be elite defenders, linemen, and recievers who occupy the majority of top 10 picks. A good qb and possibly top ranked qb wil be available outside the top 10. My argument is that the reason qb is dominating top picks this year is because this draft sucks, and not because they are so great.

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5 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Truth be told...you can’t identify it during the draft process.  An NFL QB has to grow into being this type of foundation.  How Justin Herbert leads the Chargers in 2021 will be significantly different than 2026/2031.  Right now, he’s precocious young gunslinger.  He won’t be that 10 years from now...he’ll need to evolve into something/someone more than just a QB running an offense.

Thats what the folks here don’t get.  The best QB’s make their team greater than the sum of their parts.

I see what you're saying. I can agree to an extent, but the leadership traits are there even at this stage. The competitive traits and toughness are there. We've seen it in Mayfield from day 1. Despite his talent level you could see in college he was a dynamic type that you described previously. 

Caveat: sometimes you didn't know whether it would be for better or for worse, but he's always had it. It will develop and/or evolve as he establishes himself over the years, but I thought he would be that type to lead and motivate by his presence alone. He has.

This might not be as noticeable on film if at all, but you can dig further than surface deep to determine if he has "it".

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Just now, jidady said:

You win the Great Fan award for the day!

I'm a big picture guy.  Look at skills, not people. And place that skill where its needed.  I've always been BPA and move down for picks.  But really, at 4, we can only go wrong if whoever we pick is an outright, Audrey Bruce level bust.  Still hoping to trade down.

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I can't wait for the 2021 season, because I'm confident Smith and co are going to turn the offense and the team around. I haven't been this confident since 2015 when DQ was hired, not so much because of DQ himself, but because he brought Kyle Shanahan with him and I knew he'd get the best out of Ryan. I have that same confidence about Arthur Smith, and I'd bet money that Ryan will be playing like his elite self again (yeah I said elite) in Arthur's offense.

A lot of you folks are gonna be eating crow 8-9 months from now. Ryan ain't done.

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50 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

 

Which just goes to show, most folks can't pick QBs (or any other position) to save their lives.  We don't have all the information.

 

Josh Allen's a terrific example of this. I'm extremely dubious he'd be a viable NFL QB already if anybody else had drafted him. His accuracy issues in college and as a rookie were comically bad. Through hard work, excellent coaching, and quality team play, he's elevated into something special.

QB is much more of a team position than people want to believe. There aren't many Brett Favres who make everyone on the field better just by being there.

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45 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

 

Listen, if it’s Justin Herbert having the season he just did...you can say ‘Wow!  I know we went 7-9, but we’ve got the QB position settled for the next decade

So, 7-9 makes Matt Ryan unworthy of MVP but gives the Chargers hope that they've found their guy for a decade?

You usually don't move the goalposts like this, dude. That aspect alone would tell you that you've lost your distance on this subject.

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1 minute ago, Herr Doktor said:

I'm a big picture guy.  Look at skills, not people. And place that skill where its needed.  I've always been BPA and move down for picks.  But really, at 4, we can only go wrong if whoever we pick is an outright, Audrey Bruce level bust.  Still hoping to trade down.

I agree with your approach. 1st, let the people who get paid to make decisions make them. I'm a falcons fan regardless of who they see as the best team fit. I just get tired of people trying to sell as fact that we should draft a qb to change the face of the franchise, to make us a perennial sb contender, and to drastically improve upon our qb play when the people they are supporting only played one full season of college ball or didnt even finish as finalists for heisman behind 3 position players.

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27 minutes ago, Sven said:

These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)

It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did.

This is one of the best posts I've ever read here. Congratulations on an excellent demonstration of logic and high football IQ!

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5 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

No! HC is getting hammered right now for drafting a QB. Jock sniffing in NFCG when they could have used a playmaker on defense or offense has become joke of the NFL. If Rodgers leaves GB, ML better hope Love is good or he will be fired. 

Well I hope that A-rod finds a contender if he does leave because I really respect his game. I don't think that ML has to worry about losing his job anytime soon with his run game. Also it's worth noting that GB has had one of the most consistent Front Offices in League history. Their current GM was a scout there since 98' they operate under a philosophy that hasn't changed since Holmgren.

Whatever criticisms Greenbay's FO is getting rn will prob be thrown out the window 3 years from now if history proves true. 

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7 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

I see what you're saying. I can agree to an extent, but the leadership traits are there even at this stage. The competitive traits and toughness are there. We've seen it in Mayfield from day 1. Despite his talent level you could see in college he was a dynamic type that you described previously. 

Caveat: sometimes you didn't know whether it would be for better or for worse, but he's always had it. It will develop and/or evolve as he establishes himself over the years, but I thought he would be that type to lead and motivate by his presence alone. He has.

This might not be as noticeable on film if at all, but you can dig further than surface deep to determine if he has "it".

Not to get off topic, but while Mayfield came back nicely this year from a terrible Year 2, I’d say his leadership traits which were in abundance in college, have teetered as a pro.

Its a different ball of wax leading grown men v college kids and I’d say that he hasn’t been great in this area.   And what’s also important is to ensure the production and skills progress at the same pace.  They physical aspect of the game can’t be compartmentalzied.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a GREAT leader...but his physical skill set and production, or lack thereof, invariably always show up.  And thus his teams ceiling is capped.  He can get a team from 4 to 8 wins...8 to 12?  Nope.

But we’re on the same page.

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2 minutes ago, Mr.11 said:

I can't wait for the 2021 season, because I'm confident Smith and co are going to turn the offense and the team around. I haven't been this confident since 2015 when DQ was hired, not so much because of DQ himself, but because he brought Kyle Shanahan with him and I knew he'd get the best out of Ryan. I have that same confidence about Arthur Smith, and I'd bet money that Ryan will be playing like his elite self again (yeah I said elite) in Arthur's offense.

A lot of you folks are gonna be eating crow 8-9 months from now. Ryan ain't done.

I agree with this; maybe he won't be a top 5 QB, but I think the offense will be miles better. I've been begging for a competent OC and/or an offensive head coach for Matt's whole career. I prefer the Sean Payton route, where your head coach calls the plays and, if he's good, the offense is stable for your QB their whole career. We at least got a good OC for two years, but when you have a good young OC, they get hired away, so we began to suck again.

If we improve in the red zone and become average on defense, we're a wildcard. That's not undoable, and I think we can do more than that. 

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7 minutes ago, Williamb said:

I agree with your approach. 1st, let the people who get paid to make decisions make them. I'm a falcons fan regardless of who they see as the best team fit. I just get tired of people trying to sell as fact that we should draft a qb to change the face of the franchise, to make us a perennial sb contender, and to drastically improve upon our qb play when the people they are supporting only played one full season of college ball or didnt even finish as finalists for heisman behind 3 position players.

Absolutely.  On another note, the hiring of Terry Fontenot really excites me as his main task with the Saints was to assess pro level FA.  He took people that were not necessarily names, BUT SKILL SETS, and plugged them into the Saints.  Winning.  Arthur Smith took RYAN ******* TANNEHILL and made him a top ten QB.  I love the mindset of the folks we hired.

Knight of God told me something in a thread years ago.  People get wrapped up in schools and names, but not in skill sets that fit our scheme or plan.  Thats powerful.  And true.

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4 minutes ago, jidady said:

This is one of the best posts I've ever read here. Congratulations on an excellent demonstration of logic and high football IQ!

Where has Ryan regressed?  He is an absolute Ironman and consistent as an atomic clock.  Great reply to a great post!!!  💯

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5 minutes ago, jidady said:

So, 7-9 makes Matt Ryan unworthy of MVP but gives the Chargers hope that they've found their guy for a decade?

You usually don't use the goalposts like this, dude. That aspect alone would tell you that you've lost your distance on this subject.

One is a 23 year old kid with a 10-15 year career in front of him.  Ryan is a finished product.  You need a map here to understand the difference?

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2 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Can Fontenot, or anyone for that matter, say with certainty that Ryan’s skill level won’t be in decline?

 

2 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Fontenot is not on a 1-year deal – is anyone going to judge the job he’s doing based on the 2021 Falcons?  

 

2 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

QB @ #4 is the smart move.  The safe move.  The right move.  The only move.

 

For these exact points, I can say that QB @ #4 is the wrong move, the riskiest move and by far not the only move.

1. Can Fontenot or anyone for that matter say with any certainty that a QB at pick #4 will have the skill level tol meet or exceed Matt's level? No and there is plenty of evidence that the 2nd or 3rd or 4th ranked QB in the draft have fallen flat; Trubisky, Wentz, Goff, Paxton Lynch, Darnold, Rosen, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins.. Nothing is guaranteed and by thinking that way you have already failed. Yeah you can get a Mahomes but you may get a Jamies Winston or Marriota and probability wise you are more likely to pick a dud than a stud.

2. Correct, Fontenot is not on a 1 year deal and wont be judged on 1 year. But he will be judged if he drafts a QB that does not become a franchise QB. Because that is what MR is. That's a High high risk. Can you imagine dropping Matt Ryan and your #4 turns out to be a player like Paxton Lynch or Josh Rosen or Dwayne Haskins Or Daniel Jones? Are you kidding me? (all 1st rounders and all legitimate disasters or on their way to be wasted busts)

3. If QBs go 1, 2, 3 and you're sitting there at #4 taking the 4th QB off the board, get out of here with any opinion that thinks its the only move or even a safe move. 

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25 minutes ago, jetpac said:

The Glenn Dorsey guys are now all the trade down guys 

I've been a trade guy since the draft was on a weekday. And the analytics folks backed me up a decade after the fact. More picks is better. It's not rocket science.

That's the problem with this entire line of thinking. By taking a QB who won't play this year, we have one less draft pick to fix our porous defense.

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