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A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...


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One of the best movies of the 2010’s was Spotlight.  If you haven’t seen it, it’s the re-telling of how the investigative journalism branch of one of the Boston newspapers uncovered systemic sexual ab

Lol why do I always read these thing? Always a wordy waste of time. If you can't tell that Matt Ryan had down years because of how terrible Koetter was, then you're not worth listening to. A terrible

Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If

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1 minute ago, Herr Doktor said:

I dont see our defense as horrible.  Weak, yes.  Under manned? Yes.  But realistically, they played better the second half of the season.  Why? Clueless.  But, we did that with zero identity, no kind of unified plan or scheme and with iffy coaching.  My guess is this is why Smith hired the defensive coaches he did.  I don't think they see it as horrendous, just lacking.  

Of course, I'm not a real football mind and could be very wrong.

The Falcons need a defense which doesn't give up 20 points a Quarter.

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Using the 2008 draft for this one is stupid at best and uneducated at worst. You guys act like Dorsey was a bust. He wasnt Aaron Donald, but he was a good piece. You build a team, not insert. We have yet to win a superbowl, so is that what we're doing? Not winning a superbowl? If we get a QB then fine, if we dont fine. 

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59 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

heavily overrated?  so sayeth Lornoth the QB guru.

I agree. It's an overrated draft class at the top end. But the talent seems to not have the drop-off most drafts do. Other than Lawrence, everyone else should be a back end of round 1 to mid 2nd selection. Wilson, Fields and Lance included. Mac is probably round 2 from the start.

They won't draft that way, because they never do. Everyone who picks them in the top 4 will think they're getting the next Peyton Manning. I fully expect 2 of these guys to be busts or good backups at best.

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1 minute ago, Fiercefalcon said:

You just make no sense. 

If a QB plays well, you'll pass because he didn't carry the team. In the same breath, you correlate QB success to the team around him. 

If a QB has a good season that doesn’t lead to team success...what was the point?

Listen, if it’s Justin Herbert having the season he just did...you can say ‘Wow!  I know we went 7-9, but we’ve got the QB position settled for the next decade plus’...that gives runway for positional and leadership growth.  The Chargers will grow around Herbert moving forward.  

Everybody equates good QB play simply with statistical production.  A QB is soooo much more than that.  If you think you have a franchise QB, he embodies the entire spirit and ethos of the entire franchise.  You think TB is where they are just because Tom Brady had a great statistical season?  He had that, but ultimately he instills an unconditional belief in everyone around him that they’re going to win.  That’s the tide that raises all boats with him.  It’s why he’s on his way to his 10th SB.  Mahomes isn’t really any different in that regard.  Surely the physical talent is jaw dropping, but the Chiefs are the Chiefs because the foundation they have with Mahomes as the centerpiece of that franchise gives them a confidence in their ability to win.

Ryan did that in 2016...not 2018.  

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2 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Let's fast-forward to 2023?  Ryan will be 38.  Can Fontenot, or anyone for that matter, say with certainty that Ryan’s skill level won’t be in decline?  That his body will no longer be able to handle the grind of a 16-game season (and more)?  There are certainly examples of QB’s playing into their 40’s recently (Brady/Brees)…there are also QB’s that showed signs of decline in their late 30’s (Big Ben/Rivers).  

I agree that any QB selected at #4 is not guaranteed to be a sure-fire success.  But anyone claiming we have that as a current state hasn’t been paying attention.  Whichever QB at #4 is there…that QB looks a lot more attractive than Matt Ryan.  And the chances that QB will be successful in 2023-2025 (and beyond) are a lot higher than Matt Ryan’s. 

Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 

I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)

It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 

If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 

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33 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

No, if QB doesn’t work out the first guy to be run out of town is the GM followed by the HC. You have high draft pick at QB underperforming, the owner is gonna get an HC who may help him and win. Why do you think DK got HC job in Tampa? Freddie Kitchens in CLE? Or Stefanski? They moved on quickly from Kitchens to Stefanski after Mayfield bombed in second season. All those coaching changes in Franchises with QB busts.

You definitely are citing some good examples of how drafting QB and starting them immediately can lead to coaching changes if they play poorly; however these examples are not similar to our current situation  because  we already have an old franchise QB who needs to be replaced in the next 1-3 years. The last good QB tampa had before Brady was probably Jeff Garcia and we all know about the browns QB draft history. 

Our situation is more similar to GB drafting a QB to sit behind Rodgers or the Giants drafting Daniel Jones. Both front offices remain in tact. 

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3 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

If a QB has a good season that doesn’t lead to team success...what was the point?

Listen, if it’s Justin Herbert having the season he just did...you can say ‘Wow!  I know we went 7-9, but we’ve got the QB position settled for the next decade plus’...that gives runway for positional and leadership growth.  The Chargers will grow around Herbert moving forward.  

Everybody equates good QB play simply with statistical production.  A QB is soooo much more than that.  If you think you have a franchise QB, he embodies the entire spirit and ethos of the entire franchise.  You think TB is where they are just because Tom Brady had a great statistical season?  He had that, but ultimately he instills an unconditional belief in everyone around him that they’re going to win.  That’s the tide that raises all boats with him.  It’s why he’s on his way to his 10th SB.  Mahomes isn’t really any different in that regard.  Surely the physical talent is jaw dropping, but the Chiefs are the Chiefs because the foundation they have with Mahomes as the centerpiece of that franchise gives them a confidence in their ability to win.

Ryan did that in 2016...not 2018.  

This. It goes beyond physical talent. I don't see this guy in this draft, except Lawrence.

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3 minutes ago, Sven said:

Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could be play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 

I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 11. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)

It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 

If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 

Matt Ryan is the epitome of Ironman Consistency.  Legend.

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8 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

If a QB has a good season that doesn’t lead to team success...what was the point?

Listen, if it’s Justin Herbert having the season he just did...you can say ‘Wow!  I know we went 7-9, but we’ve got the QB position settled for the next decade plus’...that gives runway for positional and leadership growth.  The Chargers will grow around Herbert moving forward.  

Everybody equates good QB play simply with statistical production.  A QB is soooo much more than that.  If you think you have a franchise QB, he embodies the entire spirit and ethos of the entire franchise.  You think TB is where they are just because Tom Brady had a great statistical season?  He had that, but ultimately he instills an unconditional belief in everyone around him that they’re going to win.  That’s the tide that raises all boats with him.  It’s why he’s on his way to his 10th SB.  Mahomes isn’t really any different in that regard.  Surely the physical talent is jaw dropping, but the Chiefs are the Chiefs because the foundation they have with Mahomes as the centerpiece of that franchise gives them a confidence in their ability to win.

Ryan did that in 2016...not 2018.  

If you were trying to make sense this wasn't the response to accomplish that.

To expand on why, for such a large wall of text, it can be summed up as "The QB does/doesn't give me a warm, fuzzy feeling."

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3 minutes ago, HairyArabFalconFan said:

You definitely are citing some good examples of how drafting QB and starting them immediately can lead to coaching changes if they play poorly; however these examples are not similar to our current situation  because  we already have an old franchise QB who needs to be replaced in the next 1-3 years. The last good QB tampa had before Brady was probably Jeff Garcia and we all know about the browns QB draft history. 

Our situation is more similar to GB drafting a QB to sit behind Rodgers or the Giants drafting Daniel Jones. Both front offices remain in tact. 

We are nothing like GB. GB was in NFCG year before they picked a QB. Look what that did to the biggest game of the year. Their first round pick was sniffing jocks on the side line. Rodgers is pissed and wants new contract. 

The Falcons have a new coach on 3 year contract, he is not going in to contract extension talks with losing season. Year 2 is grave yard for new coaches with no success. 

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3 minutes ago, Sven said:

Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could be play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 

I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 11. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)

It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 

If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 

Yeah, people thought Rodgers was washed and even Brady when he started 0-3 a couple years ago. People acting like Ryan's arm has regressed to Chad Pennington level in his last year

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6 minutes ago, Sven said:

Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could be play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 

I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 11. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)

It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 

If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 

X1000

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1 hour ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

How do we build a good team with our cap situation? 

These things matter in truly honest self-evaluations.

Andrew Thomas counted roughly $6 million against the cap as the #4 pick this year. The argument you're making is that we'll improve our cap situation by spending about $7 million (QBs get more) on the QB position in 2021 for someone who may not play a down.

In a nutshell, that's the problem with all these arguments. That one statement doesn't pass the laugh test.

Seriously, these conversations aren't even CLOSE. If we unearth a way to trade Matt, we look at QBs. If not, we don't.

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5 minutes ago, celtiksage said:

This. It goes beyond physical talent. I don't see this guy in this draft, except Lawrence.

Truth be told...you can’t identify it during the draft process.  An NFL QB has to grow into being this type of foundation.  How Justin Herbert leads the Chargers in 2021 will be significantly different than 2026/2031.  Right now, he’s precocious young gunslinger.  He won’t be that 10 years from now...he’ll need to evolve into something/someone more than just a QB running an offense.

Thats what the folks here don’t get.  The best QB’s make their team greater than the sum of their parts.

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2 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

If a QB has a good season that doesn’t lead to team success...what was the point?

Listen, if it’s Justin Herbert having the season he just did...you can say ‘Wow!  I know we went 7-9, but we’ve got the QB position settled for the next decade plus’...that gives runway for positional and leadership growth.  The Chargers will grow around Herbert moving forward.  

Everybody equates good QB play simply with statistical production.  A QB is soooo much more than that.  If you think you have a franchise QB, he embodies the entire spirit and ethos of the entire franchise.  You think TB is where they are just because Tom Brady had a great statistical season?  He had that, but ultimately he instills an unconditional belief in everyone around him that they’re going to win.  That’s the tide that raises all boats with him.  It’s why he’s on his way to his 10th SB.  Mahomes isn’t really any different in that regard.  Surely the physical talent is jaw dropping, but the Chiefs are the Chiefs because the foundation they have with Mahomes as the centerpiece of that franchise gives them a confidence in their ability to win.

Ryan did that in 2016...not 2018.  

And how many times has Ryan delivered only for the defense to give up a lead or a freaking TD as time expired?

It's one thing to believe you can win. It's another thing to execute. If the Buccaneers had the Falcons defenses that Ryan has had to contend with, they're not in the Super Bowl.

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1 hour ago, KRUNKuno said:

Let’s play this out

Falcons have a good year.  They make the playoffs.  QB we drafted at pick 4 doesn’t help us at all as he continues to sit on the bench.  3rd and 18 with the game on the line we give up 22 yards.

Green Bay sure wishes it'd had a real player instead of Jordan Love in the NFC Championship game.

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9 minutes ago, Sven said:

Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could be play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 

I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 11. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)

It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 

If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 

This is how you do it, OP needs to take notes.  This reply will go ignored tho because his asz can't refute any of it.  Well said. 

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1 minute ago, falcons007 said:

We are nothing like GB. GB was in NFCG year before they picked a QB. Look what that did to the biggest game of the year. Their first round pick was sniffing jocks on the side line. Rodgers is pissed and wants new contract. 

The Falcons have a new coach on 3 year contract, he is not going in to contract extension talks with losing season. Year 2 is grave yard for new coaches with no success. 

Which is exactly why they put the young kid in at year 2, because if he starts showing flashes it can lead to a contract extension. 

I'm not saying it's the best strat, **** it's probably one of the worst. I'm just saying that drafting a young QB can be a tool to extend a front office/ coaching career just as much as you say it can destroy a career. I don't think it's controversial to say that plenty of GM's and Coaches have tried this route. 

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