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A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...


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25 minutes ago, PointSwayzee said:

That is the point that the pro-QB people are trying to say(I don't  have the proper post count to being taken seriously, just a troll apparently). Now granted, there are way too many "Ryan Haters" in the group that just want him gone for the sake of a change, but your making the point that the long-plan envisions are seeing.

For sure but long-plan envisions isn't just resolved with a QB. That's one way of doing it, but not the only way of doing it.

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1 hour ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

How do we build a good team with our cap situation?  Don’t the current players on the roster bear some brunt of the blame for the underperformance?

Secondly, but for one season, Ryan’s not been at Brees/Brady’s level.

Thirdly, compare rosters of TB/NO to ours.  Those teams are better teams all around.  Where is our Shaq Barrett, JPP, Kamara.  Arians and Payton have decades of successful experience offensively in the NFL.  No one knew who Arthur Smith was 18 months ago.

These things matter in truly honest self-evaluations.

2 of the 4 seasons Ryan had in a good offensive scheme produced MVP caliber seasons.  2 of 3 if you don't want to count the first season growing pains under a new system.

Ryan is suited to a short to intermediate game using your noggin.  When he's had that, he's thrived.  So throwing out "Ryan wasn't as good under Mularkey and Koetter as other QBs are under Payton and Bellicheck" is not very meaningful.

Agree our team is not up to TB/NO.  They both have better OL, way better defense, and similar offensive weapons to ours.  So why not build that team, with a QB who isn't a liability, and throw in the QB when you're there?

The best way to win a Super Bowl is to have a capable team, and then throw a QB with a rookie contract in there.  To do that, we have to build the capable team first.  Otherwise we're wasting the cheap years of a rookie QB on either being a backup, or helming an inadequate team.

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5 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

If we take a QB this high...it’s gotta be a HR.

Won’t surprise me whatever the new regime decides.

Adaptability and building a team. Lots of ways to do that and not worth the hyper-focus.

The only time the Colts were in a position to do this under Ballard was in 2018 picking 6th after Andrew Luck missed the 2017 season.  Luck was entering his age 29 season but coming off a career threatening injury...while no one could have foreseen his retirement a year later, they selected Quentin Nelson.

A pick later, the Bills selected Josh Allen.

Now I’m not saying Ballard should have selected Allen.  But we can see the position both the Bills and Colts are in; the Colts trying to patch together a workable solution at QB to insert on what looks like a very good roster at making (and exiting) the playoffs in Round 1...versus the Bills who look set at the most important position on a football field for the next decade.

Hitting HR’s means swinging hard and Ballard has been a pretty good singles hitter.

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6 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Let’s play this out...

Falcons have a bad year.  QB in play for 2022 depending on how bad the year is, but now Fontenot/Smith have wasted a year of their tenure.  The hypothetical of ‘Falcons passed on <insert QB(s) they passed on here> now hangs over their choice.

Falcons have a good year...likely not in a position to secure any of the above.  Clock still ticking on Ryan and Fontenot/Smith at the mercy of building a franchise in the fog so to speak with limited long term visibility.

Neither is an attractive option for their job prospects long term.

Well let’s say they have a good year, Ryan starts aging, they ring off a consistent 10-12 win run, the rookie picked in 2021 starts winning all pros, Ryan retires, we make a conference game or 2 but don’t get over the hump(because winning a SB would make this decision easier)...do you really think their job is in danger if they don’t have an all pro QB as the heir successor at this point?

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I'm a fan of waiting on Rattler or Howell. Slovis has potential too, but that USC QB thing worries me a bit. He went somewhat the Darnold route where he flew onto the scene starting and lit it up in year 1 and then took a bit of a step back in year 2. I'll be very curious to see where he is at this point next year. I remember Barkley was in a similar situation: possible top 10 pick, then had an awful year which dropped him to day 3. 

Howell was arguably better than Lawrence this year too so he may be my guy. Howell is pretty dang good.

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1 hour ago, Wjcorner said:

Not trying to attack your point, genuinely curious. How do you attack the cap in this situation? Nobody wants to pick this high again, and I’m not sure ‘punt 2021’ was discussed as a plan for success in the interviews. 

yeah a coach that has a 3 year contract is going to come in willingly giving up year one by using his first draft pick, which happens to be #4,  on someone who's going to sit on the bench and only be used for specific plays, if that.

right....

 

and this isn't aimed at you, it's aimed at all the doofuses who really think that. Maybe they think hiring AS was a 3 year plan to keep the team from being as totally embarrassing as they have been the last few years, while waiting on Joe Brady to get a little more experience....

:ninja:

 

 

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5 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

2 of the 4 seasons Ryan had in a good offensive scheme produced MVP caliber seasons.  2 of 3 if you don't want to count the first season growing pains under a new system.

Ryan is suited to a short to intermediate game using your noggin.  When he's had that, he's thrived.  So throwing out "Ryan wasn't as good under Mularkey and Koetter as other QBs are under Payton and Bellicheck" is not very meaningful.

Agree our team is not up to TB/NO.  They both have better OL, way better defense, and similar offensive weapons to ours.  So why not build that team, with a QB who isn't a liability, and throw in the QB when you're there?

The best way to win a Super Bowl is to have a capable team, and then throw a QB with a rookie contract in there.  To do that, we have to build the capable team first.  Otherwise we're wasting the cheap years of a rookie QB on either being a backup, or helming an inadequate team.

What other MVP season beside 2016 are you referring to?  2018?  When he wasn’t voted to the ProBowl?

MVP seasons need to be pretty clear,  not artificially produced on the back of being 4-9.

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9 minutes ago, HairyArabFalconFan said:

My point is that if we knew for sure how kids careers were going to turn out then we would be working for NFL teams as scouts. The fact remains that freshly hired crews are  more likely to draft young QBs because it extends their leash and helps their career longevity even if the QB doesn't end up working out.

I'm not sure that's true. If we draft a QB and he sits on the bench the entire length of Smith's contract it's not going to do anything for him. 

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2 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

The only time the Colts were in a position to do this under Ballard was in 2018 picking 6th after Andrew Luck missed the 2017 season.  Luck was entering his age 29 season but coming off a career threatening injury...while no one could have foreseen his retirement a year later, they selected Quentin Nelson.

A pick later, the Bills selected Josh Allen.

Now I’m not saying Ballard should have selected Allen.  But we can see the position both the Bills and Colts are in; the Colts trying to patch together a workable solution at QB to insert on what looks like a very good roster at making (and exiting) the playoffs in Round 1...versus the Bills who look set at the most important position on a football field for the next decade.

Hitting HR’s means swinging hard and Ballard has been a pretty good singles hitter.

Are we gonna act like Nelson isn't an absolute baller though? The dude single handily made Indy's OL respectable. 

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2 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

I'm not sure that's true. If we draft a QB and he sits on the bench the entire length of Smith's contract it's not going to do anything for him. 

Pretty sure that pulling your old QB for a fresh face is the ultimate "save my job" move in the NFL

Edited by HairyArabFalconFan
grammar
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In the history of the franchise the Falcons have drafted 25 QBs.
5 of them were taken in round 1
3 were taken with pick 3 or higher
1 is in the hall of fame

Of the 5 first round picks 
3 have thrown for more than 22000 career yards
2 have thrown for more than 150 TDs
1 has started a Super Bowl

It's not easy to find a franchise QB. Certainly not easy to find two. 

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1 minute ago, tl;dr said:

Are we gonna act like Nelson isn't an absolute baller though? The dude single handily made Indy's OL respectable. 

Which, of course, makes any QB you put behind him better.

People act as if John Elway was winning Super Bowls all along.  There is only so much a QB can do.  When he finally got a run game and a great defense, he won 2 in a row.  Elite QBs are not coincidentally always found on elite teams.  You know why nobody is talking about Deshaun Watson being elite right now?  It isn't because he can't play.  It's because his team sucks.

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2 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

What other MVP season beside 2016 are you referring to?  2018?  When he wasn’t voted to the ProBowl?

MVP seasons need to be pretty clear,  it artificially produced on the back of being 4-9.

Pro Bowl is a popularity contest.  Yes, look at 2018.  It was an amazing QB season.  1/2 of the first 6 or so games were clinics, but we still managed to lose by having a hideous defense.

If you tell me Ryan will have 4900 yards, over 8ypa, 35+ TDs and under 10 INTs the next few seasons, I'm going to go ahead and sign up for that.

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1 minute ago, tl;dr said:

Are we gonna act like Nelson isn't an absolute baller though? The dude single handily made Indy's OL respectable. 

I wouldn’t say single handedly...but I would point out the vast difference in terms of ceiling/impact between QB and OG.

Nelson likely gets to HOF at his current pace of play...but he doesn’t make the Colts a better team like Allen makes the Bills single handedly.

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5 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

2 of the 4 seasons Ryan had in a good offensive scheme produced MVP caliber seasons.  2 of 3 if you don't want to count the first season growing pains under a new system.

Ryan is suited to a short to intermediate game using your noggin.  When he's had that, he's thrived.  So throwing out "Ryan wasn't as good under Mularkey and Koetter as other QBs are under Payton and Bellicheck" is not very meaningful.

Agree our team is not up to TB/NO.  They both have better OL, way better defense, and similar offensive weapons to ours.  So why not build that team, with a QB who isn't a liability, and throw in the QB when you're there?

The best way to win a Super Bowl is to have a capable team, and then throw a QB with a rookie contract in there.  To do that, we have to build the capable team first.  Otherwise we're wasting the cheap years of a rookie QB on either being a backup, or helming an inadequate team.

I think you can do both.  To achieve what you're asking, which makes logical sense, trading down and eviscerating a team panicking about a QB gets us there a bit faster. 

Caveat. I'm not opposed to any draft scenario our team produces as long as its part of a larger, long term plan.  I hold that you can win and still plan for the future.  Anything else is defeatist. 

You made great points. 

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Just now, HairyArabFalconFan said:

Pretty sure that pulling your an old QB for a fresh face is the ultimate "save my job" move in the NFL

You mean desperation move. Ryan isn't going to be the axel our success is hinged upon the next few years, it's whether we can build a decent team around our QB or not. If Smith and Font use their first ever draft pick as a desperate 'save my job' play then they should never have been hired.

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12 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

as best I can tell, I don't believe in 55yrs of drafting there have ever been QBs going "1,2,3" - please correct me if I am wrong about that but I cannot think of a draft where that happened - doesn't mean it won't happen this time - as there is always a first time for everything.

As to QBs in this particular draft - I am intrigued by no less than 4 of them - Lawrence, Fields, Wilson and Lance - maybe in that order but subject to change.   I feel the safety of them in that order so that is why I have them in that order but I like the upside on all of them.

As to "wanting a QB" - I want what I deem to be best for the long-term of the Atlanta Falcons.   If I thought that was drafting an Offensive Tackle or a Cornerback - then that is what I would want.   I want a long-term winner that can contend for a SuperBowl and ultimately WIN one.   As we have discussed, the most universal tangible of SuperBowl winners is elite QB play.   Throughout modern history, about 75% of the SuperBowl winners had elite QBs - there were some exceptions where we saw just crazy elite defenses like Ravens(2000) and Bucs(2003) and some others where a QB got hot at the right time, etc. - but the most common trait of SuperBowl winners is elite QB play.    Can Matt still get that done?  Perhaps but he is showing slippage and he has always had the most elite of weapons.  Judging by what I have seen the last few years, I don't anticipate Matt playing well into his late 30's and early 40's.

I will support whatever the Falcons do but New GM, New HC, #4 pick and a really good QB class with a QB in a mild decline - to me that seems like a cake being possibly baked there.

1999

Couch, McNabb, then Akili Smith... 1 out of 3 ain't bad 🤔

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3 minutes ago, Fiercefalcon said:

Imagine using the Pro Bowl in any football discussion

 

1 minute ago, takeitdown said:

Pro Bowl is a popularity contest.  Yes, look at 2018.  It was an amazing QB season.  1/2 of the first 6 or so games were clinics, but we still managed to lose by having a hideous defense.

If you tell me Ryan will have 4900 yards, over 8ypa, 35+ TDs and under 10 INTs the next few seasons, I'm going to go ahead and sign up for that.

You all beat me to it but yea.  lmao...Pro Bowls as a metric...OP thinks he is A LOT smarter than he is and is really out here showing his *** more than anything else.

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Just now, tl;dr said:

He's talking about how Indy is too scared to swing for the fences. Meanwhile they have one of the best rosters in football lol. 

I'm guessing there's a good chance Stafford ends up finishing his career at Indy, they may draft a later round qb to sit behind him for the next couple years, or maybe next year. You know, like we need to do  ;)

 

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4 minutes ago, papachaz said:

yeah a coach that has a 3 year contract is going to come in willingly giving up year one by using his first draft pick, which happens to be #4,  on someone who's going to sit on the bench and only be used for specific plays, if that.

right....

 

and this isn't aimed at you, it's aimed at all the doofuses who really think that. Maybe they think hiring AS was a 3 year plan to keep the team from being as totally embarrassing as they have been the last few years, while waiting on Joe Brady to get a little more experience....

:ninja:

 

 

I mean :lol:

 

but seriously, that’s why I asked how he’d handle the cap. Because if there was a way to not touch Ryan’s contract, and do some cap magic, we could sit a top 4 draft pick with a few good vet moves.

All that to say, I doubt Fontenot grabs a QB based on BPA, but since this was a discussion on why he needs to do it, I’d like to hear @TheDirtyWordIIflesh out why he thinks it’s a no brainer/only option by explaining how we’ll deal with the cap in that situation.

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1 minute ago, takeitdown said:

Pro Bowl is a popularity contest.  Yes, look at 2018.  It was an amazing QB season.  1/2 of the first 6 or so games were clinics, but we still managed to lose by having a hideous defense.

If you tell me Ryan will have 4900 yards, over 8ypa, 35+ TDs and under 10 INTs the next few seasons, I'm going to go ahead and sign up for that.

That produce 7-9 records?  Count me out.  While ProBowl’s may be popularity contests, MVP seasons require the team to perform.  To say he had one is a more BS claim.

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