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A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...


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Feel like people are trying to decipher the talent of future draft classes and compare them to this class and not addressing the main point TDWII made. 

There are allot career incentives for new Front Office admins and coaches to draft a franchise QB now.

Edited by HairyArabFalconFan
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6 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

Are you saying Lawrence is not the best prospect in the draft? 

Prospect yes, player IDK? You said and I quote "Whomever will be at #4 will not be the best qb in the draft"

Nobody knows anything, no guarantees that any of the top guys will be the best. Could be some pick in a later round.

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Just now, HairyArabFalconFan said:

Feel like people are trying decipher the talent of future draft classes and compare them to this class and not addressing the main point TDWII made. 

There are allot career incentives for new Front Office admins and coaches to draft a franchise QB now.

Not if there isn't a franchise QB where we pick. I can tell you there won't be 4 franchise QB's in this draft. 

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3 minutes ago, KRUNKuno said:

I’m all for a backup, but honestly not in the 1st round.  We have way more pressing needs for us to be spending it on a guy that will likely see no playing time in the immediate future.

If a QB is the best player on their board at 4 I have no problem with them taking him.

I'm highly unconvinced that will be the case.  The way too many folks here seem to rank the players in this draft is:

QB

QB

QB

QB

Sewell

QB

Surtain

Trask

3 WRs

Etc.

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1 minute ago, PointSwayzee said:

Prospect yes, player IDK? You said and I quote "Whomever will be at #4 will not be the best qb in the draft"

Nobody knows anything, no guarantees that any of the top guys will be the best. Could be some pick in a later round.

Glad you admit that you don't know anything about the qbs. That's why I prefer to draft Chase

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37 minutes ago, FentayeJones said:

Yeah this is the logic I cant seem to wrap my brain around. If Ryan is such a steep decline as some say, it doesn't matter whether they pick a QB this year or not seeing that they will likely picking high again next year. 

My take is whether the Falcons pick a QB or not should be based on AS and TF's evaluation of the QBs in the draft and where they think Ryan will be in the next couple of years. Not solely because they are picking #4 this year. 

The present or future tense in terms of Ryan’s decline is almost irrelevant to the discussion.

If we go down the list of the NFL QB’s, let’s agree that Ryan would have to overperform any level of play he’s shown since his MVP year to be better than the following.

Rodgers
Brady
Mahomes
Allen
Lamar
Dak (healthy)
Wilson
Murray

...add young bucks like Burrow, Herbert who showed out tremendously their rookie years along with Lawrence who is the best QB prospect since Luck, what we have is a middle-of-the-pack guy when you look at his ceiling.  That’s pretty much established.

Ryan could play like he did in 2019 with middle-tier QB play, lead the Falcons to a 7-9 record.  Falcons get a pick in the teens...goodbye access to top QB prospects without sacrificing precious draft capital a GM 12 months into the job should cherish.

The position the Falcons are in today to at least put their stake in the ground in solving the post-Ryan QB...conundrum, might not present itself again for Fontenot.  And if it doesn’t, it certainly makes his job that much more difficult (to retain).

 

 

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I agree with your rational about why Fontenot may go QB at 4.  There are two things I find interesting about the Fontenot hire which lead me to believe the Fontenot hire reflects Arthur Blanks desire to  keep Matt Ryan as the falcons centerpiece moving forward.

1. Fontenot worked for an organization that retooled it's team around an aging QB in Drew Brees. 
2. Fontenot's expertise is on the Pro side, dealing with free agents which will be vital retooling the team quickly vs a full rebuild. 

A few years removed from a new stadium facing PSL defaults and declining interest  Arthur Blank is under intense pressure to win now  or draft a player who can create new excitement c will be interesting to see which direction they go. 

 

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28 minutes ago, Draftnut57 said:

   BuT , Don't you think we need a backup QB? And one that could be Ryan's replacement when ever he steps down.. And yes. I think Ryan can be and will be the starter for at least 2 more years.. maybe more.  With a QB you have to think ahead before you get into a mess by not having one to step in if needed.  And No, we don't have to take one with our first rounder , And yes we might can luckily pick up a good backup ,, That would suits me fine.. WE could use all our picks on players we need now.  

  I just want to make sure we have that backup QB to be a good one.. And it seems like this draft is loaded with QBs which in most Drafts there are only a handful and hard to get.. WE are sitting in a spot to not only get a top backup,, WE can trade down get a really good QB and still get two extra picks with the trade down. Plus , A starting QB,  It's just like this draft is made for our needs. And we have #4.. no it's not fun being 4 until the draft gets here. So I'm going to enjoy having this high pick.. Cause I don't think we'll have one this high again. Period... Not with the New Coaches and the New help in the office to help AB make the right moves...  :golfclap:

I agree DN, we need a backup.  But not a rookie.  Not sure what we have in Benkert,  but my guess is that the team has been stashing him away as the heir apparent to Schaubie.  Now, Schaub is gone.  However, a new staff is here so Benkert will need to prove his worth.

For what it's worth, my belief is that the Falcons will bring in another vet through FA or through a trade.  I'd like to see Gardner Minshew as a backup.  Drafting a kid still makes sense, in what round?  Who knows.

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2 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

Not if there isn't a franchise QB where we pick. I can tell you there won't be 4 franchise QB's in this draft. 

My point is that if we knew for sure how kids careers were going to turn out then we would be working for NFL teams as scouts. The fact remains that freshly hired crews are  more likely to draft young QBs because it extends their leash and helps their career longevity even if the QB doesn't end up working out.

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31 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

This isn't an article.  It's a post on a message board written by someone who posts here.

The reality is, it is unlikely we go QB at 4.  That doesn't mean we can't, or even that we won't, it just means it's not particularly likely.  Those of you making these impassioned arguments to the contrary are likely to be disappointed on draft day.  And you should know, the front office isn't listening to you in any event.  Even if you suggest they too have their heads buried in the sand.

Simple way of looking at this... If Fontenot thinks that Matt Ryan represents the future of this franchise, then I will be proven wrong. If he doesn't, then a ton of posters in here might be considering therapy for the first time in their lives... 

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1 hour ago, ATLskinjob said:

Lol why do I always read these thing? Always a wordy waste of time. If you can't tell that Matt Ryan had down years because of how terrible Koetter was, then you're not worth listening to. A terrible take is still a terrible take even if you try to hide behind 8 paragraphs of fluff.

 

TLDR for everyone else: Matt Ryan Bad. We draft new QB or else!

Thanks man. tl; dr master is very thankful for the summary. I ain't readin that crap lol

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2 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

Based on the fact that a lot has to fall the right way.  If 3 QBs go 1-2-3, I don't see us taking the 4th best QB at 4.  Even if only one is left, it has to be the right one, and you and others here disagree on who that would be.  Which is no matter, because it is the team's opinion that counts, not any of yours.  We need defensive help and we would have the option to take the best defensive player on the board at 4.  Sewell might be there at 4.  

You say I have nothing but my own opinion, and that is correct, but the same is absolutely true of you.  You're banking on the Falcons taking a QB based on two things, best I can tell.  1) you want one, and 2) we have the no. 4 pick and can therefore get one if the team also wants one.  I think you let the first color the second way too much.

And you want Fields, so if they don't, your prediction really starts to wilt if he's there and whoever they might prefer is not.  Because I guarantee you this -- they don't value the QBs all equally, and it is almost certain they don't value them the same way you do.

Finally, you say they have a "blank canvas and permission from Arthur to paint it however they wish."  Based on what?  Do you have a link that substantiates that claim?

as best I can tell, I don't believe in 55yrs of drafting there have ever been QBs going "1,2,3" - please correct me if I am wrong about that but I cannot think of a draft where that happened - doesn't mean it won't happen this time - as there is always a first time for everything.

As to QBs in this particular draft - I am intrigued by no less than 4 of them - Lawrence, Fields, Wilson and Lance - maybe in that order but subject to change.   I feel the safety of them in that order so that is why I have them in that order but I like the upside on all of them.

As to "wanting a QB" - I want what I deem to be best for the long-term of the Atlanta Falcons.   If I thought that was drafting an Offensive Tackle or a Cornerback - then that is what I would want.   I want a long-term winner that can contend for a SuperBowl and ultimately WIN one.   As we have discussed, the most universal tangible of SuperBowl winners is elite QB play.   Throughout modern history, about 75% of the SuperBowl winners had elite QBs - there were some exceptions where we saw just crazy elite defenses like Ravens(2000) and Bucs(2003) and some others where a QB got hot at the right time, etc. - but the most common trait of SuperBowl winners is elite QB play.    Can Matt still get that done?  Perhaps but he is showing slippage and he has always had the most elite of weapons.  Judging by what I have seen the last few years, I don't anticipate Matt playing well into his late 30's and early 40's.

I will support whatever the Falcons do but New GM, New HC, #4 pick and a really good QB class with a QB in a mild decline - to me that seems like a cake being possibly baked there.

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39 minutes ago, joeyg2033 said:

From your lips to God's ears... Been forwarding this argument for two months, only to be derided as a troll.  A hater.  An unserious poster.  A person who is dismissive as to what Ryan means to this team. Well this article precisely and with utmost coherence spells out why a QB at #4 means the world to this franchise moving forward. And anyone who doesn't see this, simply has their head buried in the sand. 

Nah because you are and the OP keep spewing garbage to further your Ryan Hate Agenda. 

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4 minutes ago, HairyArabFalconFan said:

My point is that if we knew for sure how kids careers were going to turn out then we would be working for NFL teams as scouts. The fact remains that freshly hired crews are  more likely to draft young QBs because it extends their leash and helps their career longevity even if the QB doesn't end up working out.

No, if QB doesn’t work out the first guy to be run out of town is the GM followed by the HC. You have high draft pick at QB underperforming, the owner is gonna get an HC who may help him and win. Why do you think DK got HC job in Tampa? Freddie Kitchens in CLE? Or Stefanski? They moved on quickly from Kitchens to Stefanski after Mayfield bombed in second season. All those coaching changes in Franchises with QB busts.

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1 hour ago, ATLskinjob said:

Lol why do I always read these thing? Always a wordy waste of time. If you can't tell that Matt Ryan had down years because of how terrible Koetter was, then you're not worth listening to. A terrible take is still a terrible take even if you try to hide behind 8 paragraphs of fluff.

 

TLDR for everyone else: Matt Ryan Bad. We draft new QB or else!

Facts man. They think a new qb will fix our problems. stop the presses they have all the answers. someone tell Terry

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4 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

Glad you admit that you don't know anything about the qbs. That's why I prefer to draft Chase

The only thing that gives me pause on a WR (and Chase is the one I'd want for sure) is positional value.  I favor drafting the position and then not paying FAs in order to maximize cap value.  You pay QBs.  WRs and RBs can be found in the draft every year.  Plus there's only one QB, whereas there are multiple WRs (the same is true of o-linemen, but it's a little different in that o-linemen affect the play on every snap and specialize, whereas WRs might catch 10 balls a game if they're really good and are to some degree interchangeable).

Having said that, I'll take Chase over the 4th best QB.  I'd just take other players over him.

And honestly, I think a trade down is a seriously viable option.  Maybe the most likely.  And if we trade down and someone like Lance falls, I actually think it might increase the odds we take a QB with that pick because we'll have more draft capital to spend on other positions.

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3 minutes ago, joeyg2033 said:

Simple way of looking at this... If Fontenot thinks that Matt Ryan represents the future of this franchise, then I will be proven wrong. If he doesn't, then a ton of posters in here might be considering therapy for the first time in their lives... 

Oh, I think it's the other way around.  Nobody who thinks Matt Ryan has several good years left is oblivious that he's going to be gone inside 5 years.

By contrast, those who so badly want to replace him and are not being careful what they wish for are going to be apoplectic if we take a CB or WR or OL with the number 4 pick.

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