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A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...


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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

Brady's arm is better now at 43 than Matt's is at 35.   I saw Matt hang those 15yd out throws that cost Falcons in Chargers game that I never saw him hang before.   The deep balls are looking worse as well.    Matt has never made his living having a gun but even a "change-up" pitcher has to maintain velocity as he gets older.    Albeit gradual, there are signs of slippage w/ Matt right now.  

No it's not. Without Koetter Matt will be back in most's good graces in no time. 

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12 minutes ago, joeyg2033 said:

From your lips to God's ears... Been forwarding this argument for two months, only to be derided as a troll.  A hater.  An unserious poster.  A person who is dismissive as to what Ryan means to this team. Well this article precisely and with utmost coherence spells out why a QB at #4 means the world to this franchise moving forward. And anyone who doesn't see this, simply has their head buried in the sand. 

Wait until you get a 30 day suspension for such treason! 🤣

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32 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Let’s play this out...

Falcons have a bad year.  QB in play for 2022 depending on how bad the year is, but now Fontenot/Smith have wasted a year of their tenure.  The hypothetical of ‘Falcons passed on <insert QB(s) they passed on here> now hangs over their choice.

Falcons have a good year...likely not in a position to secure any of the above.  Clock still ticking on Ryan and Fontenot/Smith at the mercy of building a franchise in the fog so to speak with limited long term visibility.

Neither is an attractive option for their job prospects long term.

How is it a wasted year if they took the previous year to build out the rest of the roster?

It's not wasted because of wins and losses. It's wasted if the players they draft or sign aren't good.

Wouldn't a rookie QB that's not as good as Ryan still lead to a bad record? If they drafted the QB and sat him behind Matt and still had bad wins/losses, then would that be a wasted season?

Wins/losses don't dictate a "lost" season

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46 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

Matt Ryan was the best qb in that draft. Cpuld they have drafted Dorsey and traded up in the 1st again for Flacco instead of Baker? Whomever will be at #4 will not be the best qb in the draft. MR2 contract/cap hit will not magically disappear with a qb pick. If they think a qb at #4 is a homerun and "safe", go for it. I'd rather take the bpa, which is safe to me in Chase

That is absolutely, irrefutably the dumbest post I have read in a long time. How do you know that? So, your saying that unless your the 1st QB taken in any given year, then you won't be the best of that draft class.

Wow...just wow.

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Just because you draft a good qb high doesn't mean you won't be drafting high for a few years.... I would bet any amount of money the jags will be a top 10 pick for the next 2 years...   

As much as I want a new qb I dont think that kid from.BYU is the guy...  I cant stand 1 year wonders... the flash in the pan is scary IMHO.. im willing to give Matt Ryan 1 more year with a competent OC, to see what he looks like.   2022 we need to draft a QB.  

I dont trust 1 year wonders and I dont trust contract year player stats,..😐..  sorry not sorry......... at 4, the only QB that needs to be taking is Justin fields... because he has a track record....    no one knew who Zach wilson was before a covid opt out 2020 years...  I dont trust his number 

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6 minutes ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

How is it a wasted year if they took the previous year to build out the rest of the roster?

It's not wasted because of wins and losses. It's wasted if the players they draft or sign aren't good.

Wouldn't a rookie QB that's not as good as Ryan still lead to a bad record? If they drafted the QB and sat him behind Matt and still had bad wins/losses, then would that be a wasted season?

Wins/losses don't dictate a "lost" season

That is the point that the pro-QB people are trying to say(I don't  have the proper post count to being taken seriously, just a troll apparently). Now granted, there are way too many "Ryan Haters" in the group that just want him gone for the sake of a change, but your making the point that the long-plan envisions are seeing.

Edited by PointSwayzee
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There's a lot of debatable content in your synopsis OP.

No one really has a clear picture of what Smith's contract length was, but some have said 3 years. If that's the case, replacing an immediate starter (whoever else would be picked at #4) with a QB who will sit for 1-2 years might not be his best use of time. More likely, AS builds on what he's given, and gets a longer term contract in 2 years (and then considers drafting or trading for a QB - just like the Saints got Brees which worked out pretty well or plucking a QB off the back end of the draft aka Rodgers or Jackson). Lots of scenarios are available for how we get our future QB without picking in the top 5 again.

I also feel like Tannehill isn't even close to the QB Ryan is, and he'll probably regress to his former self this year.

Ryan is still younger than at least 3 QBs that were in the playoffs, and all of whom knocked each other off. Ryan isn't a dead fish yet, and all probability says he will be better under Smith instead of waiting on long developing routes and deep passes like he did this past year.

IMHO none of the QBs in this draft are better or ever will be better than Mahomes, Brees or Brady. Of course, we really only need them to be as good as MR has been. Lawrence will probably fill that bill, but I'm not completely sold that any of the others will.

Knowing TF and AS will be on the same sheet of music for what they want to do at QB before the draft even begins, I'll trust that if they take a QB at 4, he'll be a guy they unanimously agreed upon, and he will overtake MR in 2 years without being a downgrade. I don't wholeheartedly agree anyone other than Lawrence could do that. 

TF or AS mentioned building the trenches in recent pressers, and I expect Pees will want to address the safeties and DE immediately. 

TF also mentioned going BPA, so it really comes down to how highly they value this QB class. IMO it doesn't measure up to many of the previous QB prospects except for Lawrence who we aren't getting.

BLUF (bottom line up front): to win now - what AB expects - we have to hit home runs with defensive picks probably for the next 2 years (close to the end of AS's contract after year 2). They need to be immediate starters in at least 3 areas (DE, DT and S). That requires those early picks in the draft or cap space (which we don't and won't have).

I think we might 1-2 years early on drafting a QB.

But who knows, we could trade up for Lawrence and void every debate on TATF. Hahahaa

I can't wait for the draft and FA additions. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

This isn't an article.  It's a post on a message board written by someone who posts here.

The reality is, it is unlikely we go QB at 4.  That doesn't mean we can't, or even that we won't, it just means it's not particularly likely.  Those of you making these impassioned arguments to the contrary are likely to be disappointed on draft day.  And you should know, the front office isn't listening to you in any event.  Even if you suggest they too have their heads buried in the sand.

You say it is unlikey the Falcons go QB at #4.   Based on what exactly?    Why is it unlikely?   The Falcons have - for the first time in 10 years - a GM who is more concerned w/ how the team looks in three years from now than next year.

Fontenot doesn't have to pay for the sins of Dimitroff.   Smith doesn't have to pay for the sins of Quinn.   Both have a blank canvas and permission from Arthur to paint it however they wish.   You have nothing other than your own opinion that it is unlikely that Falcons take a QB at #4.   It is at least just as likely the Falcons choose to take a QB as not.

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4 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Koetter was responsible for Ryan’s decrease in arm strength?

He hasn't lost arm strength; that was never his strength to begin with. Ryan won MVP off of timing, intelligence, a run game, and playaction, all things Smith prioritized in Tenn. Smith won't force Ryan to be a strong arm QB in order to have success. Brady doesn't have killer arm strength, in fact he never really did, same as Ryan. 

5 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

heavily overrated?  so sayeth Lornoth the QB guru.

My own opinion's the only one I've got. :shrug:

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34 minutes ago, FentayeJones said:

Yeah this is the logic I cant seem to wrap my brain around. If Ryan is such a steep decline as some say, it doesn't matter whether they pick a QB this year or not seeing that they will likely picking high again next year. 

My take is whether the Falcons pick a QB or not should be based on AS and TF's evaluation of the QBs in the draft and where they think Ryan will be in the next couple of years. Not solely because they are picking #4 this year. 

Totally agree.  My thoughts exactly, very well said.

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14 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

We’ve watched decreased zip on Ryan’s passes while he’s gotten knocked around a bunch here...are you trying to accentuate a difference between the two here?

Are you kidding me? Matt Ryan nailed a good number of deep balls this season. His arm is fine as it ever was. It was being in Dirk Koetter's crappy Air Coryell scheme that made him look not up to snuff. You'll see when he's back in a West Coast offense where he really thrives based on his accuracy and good decision making. Having a competent run game also helps any QB a whole lot.

And yeah, I am "accentuating" a difference between the two. Rivers was injured a lot. He was always hung out to dry behind a crappy o line for his whole career until it was too late. Matt Ryan has always been really, almost oddly, resilient. Dude rarely gets hurt. Rivers hasn't looked really good and healthy to me for at least the last 3 seasons. Matt is still doing his thing unabated.

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1 minute ago, Lornoth said:

Every single year I hear about how the "Whatever" class it might be is super weak for next year's draft, and then we get to next year and they're saying it's stacked and actually it's NEXT year's "Whatever" class that's weak.

thanks for that science - your analytical skills are off the chart.

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10 minutes ago, PointSwayzee said:

That is absolutely, irrefutably the dumbest post I have read in a long time. How do you know that? So, your saying that unless your the 1st QB taken in any given year, then you won't be the best of that draft class.

Wow...just wow.

Are you saying Lawrence is not the best prospect in the draft? 

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26 minutes ago, joeyg2033 said:

From your lips to God's ears... Been forwarding this argument for two months, only to be derided as a troll.  A hater.  An unserious poster.  A person who is dismissive as to what Ryan means to this team. Well this article precisely and with utmost coherence spells out why a QB at #4 means the world to this franchise moving forward. And anyone who doesn't see this, simply has their head buried in the sand. 

Our post counts just make us posters troll or alternates. Funny, you bring up a point and there are about 5 lifers that swarm like moth to the flame, that literally have to be Pro-Falcons in every possible way. 

Since, I'm new here, but read the board for years, so I decided looked back on some old posts from these posters and all were die hard Quinn and Vic Beasley guys, so these are some football knowledge heavyweight we are going up against. Here is to better times after we hit the "accepted" post count..lol.

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3 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

You say it is unlikey the Falcons go QB at #4.   Based on what exactly?    Why is it unlikely?   The Falcons have - for the first time in 10 years - a GM who is more concerned w/ how the team looks in three years from now than next year.

Fontenot doesn't have to pay for the sins of Dimitroff.   Smith doesn't have to pay for the sins of Quinn.   Both have a blank canvas and permission from Arthur to paint it however they wish.   You have nothing other than your own opinion that it is unlikely that Falcons take a QB at #4.   It is at least just as likely the Falcons choose to take a QB as not.

Based on the fact that a lot has to fall the right way.  If 3 QBs go 1-2-3, I don't see us taking the 4th best QB at 4.  Even if only one is left, it has to be the right one, and you and others here disagree on who that would be.  Which is no matter, because it is the team's opinion that counts, not any of yours.  We need defensive help and we would have the option to take the best defensive player on the board at 4.  Sewell might be there at 4.  

You say I have nothing but my own opinion, and that is correct, but the same is absolutely true of you.  You're banking on the Falcons taking a QB based on two things, best I can tell.  1) you want one, and 2) we have the no. 4 pick and can therefore get one if the team also wants one.  I think you let the first color the second way too much.

And you want Fields, so if they don't, your prediction really starts to wilt if he's there and whoever they might prefer is not.  Because I guarantee you this -- they don't value the QBs all equally, and it is almost certain they don't value them the same way you do.

Finally, you say they have a "blank canvas and permission from Arthur to paint it however they wish."  Based on what?  Do you have a link that substantiates that claim?

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20 minutes ago, Draftnut57 said:

   BuT , Don't you think we need a backup QB? And one that could be Ryan's replacement when ever he steps down.. And yes. I think Ryan can be and will be the starter for at least 2 more years.. maybe more.  With a QB you have to think ahead before you get into a mess by not having one to step in if needed.  And No, we don't have to take one with our first rounder , And yes we might can luckily pick up a good backup ,, That would suits me fine.. WE could use all our picks on players we need now.  

  I just want to make sure we have that backup QB to be a good one.. And it seems like this draft is loaded with QBs which in most Drafts there are only a handful and hard to get.. WE are sitting in a spot to not only get a top backup,, WE can trade down get a really good QB and still get two extra picks with the trade down. Plus , A starting QB,  It's just like this draft is made for our needs. And we have #4.. no it's not fun being 4 until the draft gets here. So I'm going to enjoy having this high pick.. Cause I don't think we'll have one this high again. Period... Not with the New Coaches and the New help in the office to help AB make the right moves...  :golfclap:

I’m all for a backup, but honestly not in the 1st round.  We have way more pressing needs for us to be spending it on a guy that will likely see no playing time in the immediate future.

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