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A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...


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18 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

The thing is if we actually build a good team Ryan declining slightly won't matter that much. Brady's certainly declined but he's in the SB. Brees has been declining for years but his team's consistently been in the mix. If we actually make a defense and run game for once Ryan won't have to be the entire team anymore. 

They can easily build a defense and run game in 2021, 2022, and 2023 drafts. Good things take time.

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18 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

Perhaps he said that.  But, TDW has been around a minute and isn't a troll.  He has some valid points, perhaps a bit more negative than my somewhat brighter outlook.  Matt is aging. And we need a plan for his egress.  I think we all agree on that.  But, we simply differ on personnel and the time-frame.  

I agree he has been around a minute.

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19 minutes ago, Herr Doktor said:

Perhaps he said that.  But, TDW has been around a minute and isn't a troll.  He has some valid points, perhaps a bit more negative than my somewhat brighter outlook.  Matt is aging. And we need a plan for his egress.  I think we all agree on that.  But, we simply differ on personnel and the time-frame.  

Eh he's a pretty good writer, but his points are always garbage. Matt Ryan is shaping up to be a QB that plays till 40. He's never hurt, and that's what usually knocks the older guys out. He's also always been a cerebral QB versus one that relies on athletic ability to make plays, and the cerebral guys are the ones that can keep playing. If we draft a QB this draft, he's gonna be on the bench for 4 years.

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1 minute ago, Lornoth said:

Or they can draft a QB in those years. Good things take time.

The pick we have now puts us in the best position for a top rated QB in a QB strong class. Trading up next year would be such a redundant move when Fontenot has a better look at the roster and can create a better draft board. Let Ryan take the early punches.

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Just now, ATLskinjob said:

Eh he's a pretty good writer, but his points are always garbage. Matt Ryan is shaping up to be a QB that plays till 40. He's never hurt, and that's what usually knocks the older guys out. He's also always been a cerebral QB versus one that relies on athletic ability to make plays, and the cerebral guys are the ones that can keep playing. If we draft a QB this draft, he's gonna be on the bench for 4 years.

Philip Rivers?

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@TDWII very well said.  the only thing I will disagree is that it isn't "the only move" (drafting a QB @ #4).   I do think it is likely the right move - IF - Fontenot/Smith love the QB available to them there and consider said QB to be franchise-elite.

I still maintain it is more likely than not - 60/40 - that the Falcons take a QB at #4 - with said QB serving an apprenticeship for a year under Matt.   Those that believe the rook QB must play the first year - just silly thinking.

And you are right as well - Fontenot isn't on a 1-year contract - and Falcons have been drafting for "year-to-year" needs the last 10 years.

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Just now, Jerz #GurleySZN said:

The pick we have now puts us in the best position for a top rated QB in a QB strong class. Trading up next year would be such a redundant move when Fontenot has a better look at the roster and can create a better draft board. Let Ryan take the early punches.

No, it puts us in position to take the 3rd best QB in a heavily overrated QB class. Who says you need to trade up? Packers didn't either of the times they drafted a QB for the future. 

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12 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

They stopped showing up already.  They don’t have to win in 2021...eventually obviously.  But 2021 is Dimitroff and Quinn’s money...

And you really think drafting a QB at #4 doesn’t convey hope?  Versus not drafting one...? 

Not at all, see my previous posts on this thread.

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42 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

One of the best movies of the 2010’s was Spotlight.  If you haven’t seen it, it’s the re-telling of how the investigative journalism branch of one of the Boston newspapers uncovered systemic sexual abuse of young boys and how the Catholic Church covered it up.  There is a line in that movie when a lawyer played by Stanley Tucci is advising the reporter (Mark Ruffalo) digging in on the story which is ‘the church thinks in centuries’.

For Terry Fontenot – while he doesn’t need to think in terms of centuries, as a newly hired GM, he’s certainly looking at a longer term view than just 2021.  Ask yourself this question.

If Thomas Dimitroff drafts Glenn Dorsey instead of Matt Ryan in 2008, is he the Falcons GM for 13 years?

Yes, circumstances were a bit different for the Falcons when Dimitroff was hired.  Matt Ryan >>>> Chris Redman.  At the same time, the preceding 3 year period saw the Falcons win 1 more game than the 2018-2020 Falcons.  Both the 2007 Falcons and 2019 Falcons won 4 games; the 2019 version with the best QB in franchise history...the 2007 version with a hodge podge of back-up caliber QB's.

Let's fast-forward to 2023?  Ryan will be 38.  Can Fontenot, or anyone for that matter, say with certainty that Ryan’s skill level won’t be in decline?  That his body will no longer be able to handle the grind of a 16-game season (and more)?  There are certainly examples of QB’s playing into their 40’s recently (Brady/Brees)…there are also QB’s that showed signs of decline in their late 30’s (Big Ben/Rivers).  And for as much as the Ryan supporters want to chant 'Wins are not a QB stat!!'...disassociating Ryan from accountability and culpability for the Falcons subpar performance is not a luxury Terry Fontenot can afford as he evaluates the task in front of him.  At the same time, this is not 'blame Ryan for everything' stance.

I agree.  The roster  top to bottom is not at the level of any of the teams that were involved on Championship Weekend.  But let's also be honest – the same applies to the QB's.  Yes, once upon a time Ryan had a season for the ages.  But the hard truth is that he’s generally been a rung below elite for his career.  And when you look at the last 8 years…it’s simply too difficult to ignore the 57-71 record the Falcons put up the last 8 seasons under his watch.  He may not have been the problem - but he wasn’t a solution either..  If you’re a franchise QB, then for $30M/year, that’s a record that has to be owned by his legacy and certainly how a new regime would look at him.  Fontenot has been brought in to find solutions, not identify problems.  The problem(s) are clear.

Now it’s absolutely within the realm of reason that Fontenot could retool around Ryan and we could all feel good about the plan heading into 2021.  Much like we all did the last couple of seasons, although the Falcons horrid salary cap situation likely would mean having to do more with less.  When you consider that the Dimitroff and Quinn were essentially on 1-year contracts tthe last two seasons…well that’s how you get the short-term infusions of perceived improvement we got.  Moves that in hindsight checked a box in terms of problems to solve Looking good they in June, but once the rubber hit the road on the season…not so much.  Rebuild/retool around Ryan?  We've been there, done that.  Calvin Ridley, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary, Todd Gurley, Jamon Brown, James Carpenter, Hayden Hurst…all acquired to accentuate Ryan’s perceived strengths, while the Falcons scoring offense decreased from 10th/13th/16th the last 3 seasons (25.9/23.8/24.8).

Fontenot is not on a 1-year deal – is anyone going to judge the job he’s doing based on the 2021 Falcons?  Why would he follow the same script responsible for creating the vacancy he just ascended to?  While improvement in 2021 could be represented by 7-9/8-8, would that constitute an overall directional improvement for the Falcons if the elephant in the room, that pesky long term QB issue isn’t addressed?  8-8 gets the Falcons the #16 pick (approximate) in the 2022 draft, hardly fertile ground for young franchise QB acquisition.  And Matt Ryan will be one year closer to the end.

I agree that any QB selected at #4 is not guaranteed to be a sure-fire success.  But anyone claiming we have that as a current state hasn’t been paying attention.  Whichever QB at #4 is there…that QB looks a lot more attractive than Matt Ryan.  And the chances that QB will be successful in 2023-2025 (and beyond) are a lot higher than Matt Ryan’s.  If you think Fontenot isn’t thinking about that timeframe as he commences with architecting his vision for building a franchise that he’s likely been contemplating the entirety of his career up until now…well, I’m sure you’re looking at a bunch of trees, not a forest.

The Falcons have the #4 pick.  They have a 36-year old QB.  We hear it from every new regime…’we don’t want to be picking this high ever again’.  From Terry Fontenot’s perspective, he’ll never have a better chance to secure the singular and foundational piece of his franchise blueprint than in April.  The QB draft this year is seen as uniquely strong, if a bit raw…which still plays well for the Falcons.  Who better to be a bridge QB and mentor to their next franchise QB, than the previous one.  Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Trey Lance all have franchise QB potential.  The Falcons are guaranteed a shot at one of them.  Waiting until 2022?  2023?  Taking the Glenn Dorsey route would certainly be a high-wire act for the opening stanza of Fontenot’s GM career.  While it makes sense to follow the mindset of 2008 Thomas Dimitroff…following 2019-2020 Dimitroff would be foolhardy.

QB @ #4 is the smart move.  The safe move.  The right move.  The only move.
 

From your lips to God's ears... Been forwarding this argument for two months, only to be derided as a troll.  A hater.  An unserious poster.  A person who is dismissive as to what Ryan means to this team. Well this article precisely and with utmost coherence spells out why a QB at #4 means the world to this franchise moving forward. And anyone who doesn't see this, simply has their head buried in the sand. 

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Just now, Lornoth said:

No, it puts us in position to take the 3rd best QB in a heavily overrated QB class. Who says you need to trade up? Packers didn't either of the times they drafted a QB for the future. 

QB stock is up. Greenbay stayed put and was able to grab the 4th QB off the board. You try to do that this year and it gets risky. If these QBs show early signs of panning then next year could be even worse with QB draft value.

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44 minutes ago, KRUNKuno said:

If we needed a quarterback I’d agree.

Also, theory is flawed.  If Matt Ryan is on such a decline as many of those who want to draft a QB believe he is, then we’ll be picking early in the draft next year as well.

Kedon Slovis

Sam Howell 

Dylan Gabriel

Spencer Rattler

Desmond Ridder

there are some very good prospects next year as well.

 

 

 

all of those QBs would be #5 or lower in the pecking order if they were in the 2021 draft.   inferior class by a long shot.

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4 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

They stopped showing up already.  They don’t have to win in 2021...eventually obviously.  But 2021 is Dimitroff and Quinn’s money...

And you really think drafting a QB at #4 doesn’t convey hope?  Versus not drafting one...? 

The facts of the matter are there are a ton of options outside picking QB at 4.  Bottom line, if they believe in a QB prospect that can be the next Matt Ryan caliber of player, they will take him at 4.  If they don't, they shouldn't take a QB at 4.  "Hope" and "Reality" are two different things, hope doesn't get you anything in the NFL, winning does.  If they miss that QB pick and trade Ryan and start a QB who can't win or play, they will both be out of the job.  That's the reality.

The strategy should be not to get the best player available out of every pick, but the best value available out of every pick.  If they have 4 players in same tier and we have a call to trade down to 7 and gain more value later in the draft, they should do so as the dropoff is worth the added value later.  If they have only 2 players graded similarly and get that same call, they need to analyze if the drop off at 7 is worth the value gained at the pick gained later in the draft.  This is BPA drafting, it's about maximizing the value out of each and every pick.  If there is a QB they feel offers more value then all available options, they should take him.  Same if the best player is a WR or TE or Guard.  Maximize your value at every opportunity so you have flexibility in future years and if there are certain positions you feel aren't a problem now, they will be at some point in the future through injury, decline in play, high dollar free agents walking away, etc.

This strategy opens you up for trades, comp picks, and trying to ensure you get the best possible players out of every opportunity.

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8 minutes ago, ATLskinjob said:

Dude got knocked around a whole lot with the Chargers. His shoulder just broke down.

We’ve watched decreased zip on Ryan’s passes while he’s gotten knocked around a bunch here...are you trying to accentuate a difference between the two here?

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2 minutes ago, joeyg2033 said:

From your lips to God's ears... Been forwarding this argument for two months, only to be derided as a troll.  A hater.  An unserious poster.  A person who is dismissive as to what Ryan means to this team. Well this article precisely and with utmost coherence spells out why a QB at #4 means the world to this franchise moving forward. And anyone who doesn't see this, simply has their head buried in the sand. 

This isn't an article.  It's a post on a message board written by someone who posts here.

The reality is, it is unlikely we go QB at 4.  That doesn't mean we can't, or even that we won't, it just means it's not particularly likely.  Those of you making these impassioned arguments to the contrary are likely to be disappointed on draft day.  And you should know, the front office isn't listening to you in any event.  Even if you suggest they too have their heads buried in the sand.

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Great post by TDWII, not only does it take into account the pressures to maintain a job as a GM by extending the leash with a young QB but this post also doesn't sugar coat the physical reality of Matt Ryan's career ending soon.

This is a new era of NFL football, it is the age of the mobile quarterback because offensive lines take years of high draft picks to become dominant. If you can scramble in the NFL then you have a chance to win without winning the trenches.

Matt Ryan is the best Quarterback in franchise history and he definitely has some gas still left in the tank; but is he is also a statue. He is accurate, good play caller, and capable of winning in the right situation but anyone here who thinks he should stay a part of the 5 year plan is just fooling themselves or they are comfortable with mediocrity.
 

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36 minutes ago, KRUNKuno said:

If we needed a quarterback I’d agree.

Also, theory is flawed.  If Matt Ryan is on such a decline as many of those who want to draft a QB believe he is, then we’ll be picking early in the draft next year as well.

Kedon Slovis

Sam Howell 

Dylan Gabriel

Spencer Rattler

Desmond Ridder

there are some very good prospects next year as well.

 

 

 

   BuT , Don't you think we need a backup QB? And one that could be Ryan's replacement when ever he steps down.. And yes. I think Ryan can be and will be the starter for at least 2 more years.. maybe more.  With a QB you have to think ahead before you get into a mess by not having one to step in if needed.  And No, we don't have to take one with our first rounder , And yes we might can luckily pick up a good backup ,, That would suits me fine.. WE could use all our picks on players we need now.  

  I just want to make sure we have that backup QB to be a good one.. And it seems like this draft is loaded with QBs which in most Drafts there are only a handful and hard to get.. WE are sitting in a spot to not only get a top backup,, WE can trade down get a really good QB and still get two extra picks with the trade down. Plus , A starting QB,  It's just like this draft is made for our needs. And we have #4.. no it's not fun being 4 until the draft gets here. So I'm going to enjoy having this high pick.. Cause I don't think we'll have one this high again. Period... Not with the New Coaches and the New help in the office to help AB make the right moves...  :golfclap:

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35 minutes ago, Lornoth said:

The thing is if we actually build a good team Ryan declining slightly won't matter that much. Brady's certainly declined but he's in the SB. Brees has been declining for years but his team's consistently been in the mix. If we actually make a defense and run game for once Ryan won't have to be the entire team anymore. 

Brady's arm is better now at 43 than Matt's is at 35.   I saw Matt hang those 15yd out throws that cost Falcons in Chargers game that I never saw him hang before.   The deep balls are looking worse as well.    Matt has never made his living having a gun but even a "change-up" pitcher has to maintain velocity as he gets older.    Albeit gradual, there are signs of slippage w/ Matt right now.  

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

all of those QBs would be #5 or lower in the pecking order if they were in the 2021 draft.   inferior class by a long shot.

Where was Wilson in the pecking order last year?  Point is, these QB's still have a year to show what they are capable of.  You could say the same for Burrow last year.  What level draft prospect was he the year prior to his breakout?  I venture to guess no one would have rated him above Mayfield, Darnold, or Rosen...

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36 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

Matt Ryan was the best qb in that draft. Cpuld they have drafted Dorsey and traded up in the 1st again for Flacco instead of Baker? Whomever will be at #4 will not be the best qb in the draft. MR2 contract/cap hit will not magically disappear with a qb pick. If they think a qb at #4 is a homerun and "safe", go for it. I'd rather take the bpa, which is safe to me in Chase

there are drafts w/ multiple great QBs.

there are drafts w/ NO good QBs.

This is a very good QB draft.   Unless they go 1,2,3 - there will be a very good QB at #4.

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